Shower Threat / Summer Treat

30 Comments

1:55AM

A weak southerly flow will dominate through Friday, including a weak disturbance drifting north northeastward through New England, means lots of clouds and a threat of showers and a few thunderstorms.

By Saturday, a cold front will approach from the west, turn the wind southwest, and bring in some summertime air, but also the threat of a thunderstorm with the frontal passage.

The next question, regarding the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend, is how far will the front move offshore? It may stay close enough to the coast that a shower and thunderstorm threat will exist both Sunday and Monday. But it does not look like this front will create any long-lasting unsettled weather. Also, the air behind the front is not that much cooler than the air ahead of it, so expect above normal temperatures for the entirety of the weekend.

The warm pattern will likely continue into the middle of next week, with a shower and thunderstorm threat Tuesday with another cold front passing by, and drier weather by Wednesday as high pressure moves in.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sun and clouds. Isolated showers north central MA and southern NH during the afternoon. High from the  middle 60s coastal areas to lower and middle 70s inland areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 55-60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest along the coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. PM shower/thunderstorm. Low 60. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 60. High 77.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

30 thoughts on “Shower Threat / Summer Treat”

  3. Anyone have a forecast for downtown Boston? I get either mid 60s or mid 70s, which means a difference in how to dress (light jacket or no jacket).

    Thanks!

    1. its going to be MUGGY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND !!!!!!!!!!!!!! 63% humidity currently humidity levels down in the marsh 80%

  4. Good morning and what a great start to the day. 65 with 64 DP – muggy but summer-like – and the air is nearly still

  5. as of 9am this morning I have completed all the finals for high school… placement test for college on wednesday.

    1. Best luck Matt. A new door is opening for you. And I have absolutely no doubt you will be very successful !

  7. NOAA issued a near normal hurricane season.
    9-15 tropical storms (70% chance)
    4-8 hurricanes
    1-3 major hurricanes

    Favorable factors include warm water temps and unfavorable factors include possible formation of El Nino in the late summer.

    A “tough minded” low has formed off the Keys. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. It could be interesting especially since our winds will be coming from the south all weekend into most of next week. In spite of the forecast of a “normal” tropical storm/hurricane season, it is looking like an early start. First, Alberto…B-storm to follow shortly??

  8. CPC, which I find to usually be conservative in their 3 to 7 day outlooks, have predictions of mid 90s to 100F under the ridge in the Mississippi Valley area.

    See that shower chances seem to have increased a bit for Sunday. As long as its not cold rain or severe thunderstorms, I actually dont mind camping occasionally in the rain. There is something fun and challenging about building the fire strong enough to offset the dampness.

    1. I’m not a camper but I suspect I’d love to listen to the rain on the tent at night.

      1. Yes…….we have a pop up and there’s that sound of the first drops hitting that then ramp up, which is its own sound….

        It’s funny, if your set up under a fairly thick canopy of trees, the rainfall is different from when it actually rains. If its light rain, the first drops can take a while to fall off the leaves and then, many times, while the drops are falling a plenty from the leaves, going into an opening can reveal not a drop falling from the sky.

          1. For sure….however, one night up in the Moosehead Lake Region of Maine a couple summer’s ago, it POURED all night and it was almost difficult to maintain sleep throughout the noise. The way we set up, we had a mixture of opening to the sky above and some coverage of trees, so there was the sound of the actual rainfall and the pelting of the bigger tree drops falling off the trees.

            1. Well that’s not fun!! Lovely area though! I spent a lot of time in the rangley area when younger. I love northern ME

    1. That area just to the east of Florida now appears prime for tropical storm development (>50%)…perhaps something for the east coast to watch??

      Also I find it interesting (and puzzling) that the NOAA webpage does not list hurricane names.

      1. Assuming I am interpreting it correctly, the EURO has this feature and shows it just off the southeast US Coast most of the upcoming weekend.

        1. The next (potential) storm in the pipeline would be “Beryl”…no thanks to NOAA. I had to look it up on the Sun Sentinel website of all places.

          Also, “Barry” and “Melissa” for named storms next year 2013…and “Vicky” for 2014. 😉

          And IIRC there was a “Harvey” not too long ago. 🙂

          1. Hey I get a hurricane named after me finally – not many times I remember that – even though they spelled it wrong. My husband believes it’s a GREAT hurricane name – wonder what he means ❓

      2. As I said above, it’s a tough little low. If a hurricane develops, it should be named Beryl.

        1. The list should include “Longshot.” By the way, the low has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical system.

  10. I don’t think an early start means it going to be an active hurricane season. If this system does develop I don’t recall in my lifetime two named storms before June 1st.
    Thunderstorm Index tomorrow and Saturday just at 1 since I don’t think there will be severe weather should storms develop.
    Earlier in the week it looked like Moderate Level activity(some severe weather) could happen on Saturday now that does not appear to be the case.

    1. I don’t think the NOAA said anything about an active season. In fact, they said average. And when the NOAA says 9-15 storms (70% chance), they never attempt to forecast how many will make landfall.

  11. I was just saying the comment above because so people might think since were starting off the tropics with a bang this could be an omen of what is to come for the season.

  12. This could be similar to the winter we had. A rare early season major snowfall followed by a warm dry winter. Could we be looking at early active tropics followed by very little activity for the rest of the season? Time will tell.

  14. The Atlantic storm has a 70% chance of becoming some sort of tropical system. Lots of rain in the SE with some areas expected to see 7″.

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