Saturday February 17 2024 Forecast (7:50AM)

151 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

It’s a 3-day weekend for many, and it will be cold and generally on the quiet side, despite 2 separate low pressure areas having some impact on the region. The first slides by to our south today but some of its snowfall gets up into southern New England – a light event in general with generally 1 to 2 inches for the South Coast and dustings/coatings northward toward I-90, and generally nothing more than flakes in the air from that system north of there. However as this starts to pull away, at unstable atmosphere from a low pressure trough swinging through from the west can trigger snow showers, especially north of I-90, and these can put down scattered coatings of snow during this afternoon to very early evening before they move away. Sunday, another low pressure area will move rapidly eastward, passing across northern New England. This may also cause a few snow showers during Sunday afternoon, most of which would occur north of I-90 again. Other than localized dustings which get blown around by a gusty wind, I’m not expecting much of any accumulation from Sunday’s snow showers. Presidents Day will feature more sunshine but still breezy conditions as high pressure approaches from the west. This high will move over the region on Tuesday which will be a bright and tranquil winter day. It then shifts eastward on Wednesday, which will also feature fair weather but with milder air after a cold start.

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with periods of snow mainly near and south of I-90 with most accumulation of 1 or 2 inches along the South Coast and a slight chance of up to 3 inches over Martha’s Vineyard or Nantucket. Breaking/thinning clouds mainly to the north and west later, but additional developing instability clouds mainly north of I-90 with scattered snow showers during the afternoon – some producing minor accumulations. Highs 30-37. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill below 10 in the evening.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

One storm offshore should keep its precipitation over the ocean while a weaker system from the west brings clouds and a light precipitation chance on February 22. One or two more systems can bring rain/mix/snow (details TBD) to the region during the February 24-26 window. Temperatures start out somewhat above normal then trend slightly colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

Pattern may support a couple unsettled weather systems or even one more prolonged period of unsettled weather during this time frame. Low confidence at this point. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period.

151 thoughts on “Saturday February 17 2024 Forecast (7:50AM)”

  5. A little more weather history…

    February 17 2011, Nowata Oklahoma broke its record high temp of 79 (old record was 75). What’s more impressive is that this was 110 degrees warmer than the all time Oklahoma state record low of -31 set just 7 days earlier on February 10 2011. Quite the turn-around.

    In February 1983 (2/16), the “Ash Wednesday Catastrophe” in Australia. Strong winds, temperatures of 100+, and very low dew points fueled wildfires across large portions of Victoria and New South Wales. Nearly 2,500 homes were destroyed and 75 deaths occurred. This was during a strong El Nino, which typically brings less rain and more heat to that region, making these fires more common.

  6. Good morning and thank TK.
    ho-hum.

    Let’s end the agony and bring on SPRING!

    it is Feb 17th already!

    I’m still waiting and getting extremely impatient.
    🙂

  7. Maybe before winter is out a nice heavy band of snow will set up over your area. It happened for me on Tuesday and for the folks in parts of PA central NJ with this system.

  9. As of 7AM NY got 2 inches from this system. As I said earlier if that band just came north a little bit NY would be leading Boston in the snowfall standings.
    Current Standings
    BOS 9.7
    NY 7.5
    With NY getting 5.2 inches so far this week we have a race. 2019-2020 NY and BOS tied with 38.4 inches of snow.

    1. Thanks Jimmy. Hopefully Boston can break away with the next snow event. Right now, Worcester is the least of Boston’s snow race issues. Boston is actually lucky to be still leading this morning.

      1. Now I am wondering whether NY or BOS will get a 6 inch or greater storm this winter or will this be two straight winters neither place gets a 6 inch or greater storm.

        1. No 6 inch or greater snowstorms in Boston for 3 straight winters (1978-1979, 1979-1980, 1980-1981).

  11. Thanks TK.

    Snowing again here in Coventry this AM. I haven’t gone out to measure yet but looks like a solid inch, maybe a bit more. 26F.

    Best week of the winter by far with three snow events and cold temps to avoid much melting. Going to head out and do some cross country skiing today.

    2. The GFS now has the habits of the old ECMWF. Way too much amplification and low pressure areas that are depicted too intense. I suspect they tweaked the broken model and just broke it in a different way, given recent behavior.

      1. Probably. That said, not sure if you saw my post the other day….The GFS actually had the Tuesday storm projected in almost the exact same location and strength 15 days in advance. Not that that is a predictor of future performance 🙂

        Icon is even more amped hence its further NW and the Euro and CMC are weaker/further south.

        I’d be fine with a happy medium.

        1. Even a crappy model is going to be “right” in advance once in a while by a weird set of circumstances. How many times has it had a “storm” 15 days in advance during the last year? Not many. Once, twice, to that degree of accuracy, and it was definitely not because the model had improved. It was pretty much computerized luck. 🙂

  16. Thank you TK. I am in Bar Harbor Maine where there is even less snow than the South Coast of Massachusetts. So much for snow shoeing. My daughter is sending me pics from Rockaway Beach, NY (south of JFK Airport) where they have close to 6 inches from a storm that definitely over preformed – Thursday night they were saying an inch – maybe two. What a strange winter

  17. There these narrow bands of snow where if your under it you get quite the dumping of snow and your outside of it much less snow if any at all.

    3. Not only is it the opening track on the first full Beatles album, and includes the iconic “1,2,3, FAU!” count-in, but I believe the bass guitar being played on it is the one that was just returned to Paul after being stolen 50 years ago.

      2. Hmmmm makes a lot more sense And see…..I have a nasty mind. No way I’d know any of that. In my kind, i always had this in the same …guess what it means or what he’s saying….group as Louie Louie. But that was when you hid meanings. Now, there are no limits. Must be why I switched to country.

  24. I was placed in FB jail for a comment last Monday night on a FB post by Route 20 weather. It said simply that there were storms showing up in Ohio and an Imgur link to the radar.

    1. I’ve never been placed in FB Jail. Of course I don’t go on there any more, but I’ve posted some pretty nasty comments and memes
      about the orange haired menace! So nasty, I was shocked I wasn’t placed in FB Jail. 🙂

      1. I was once before when I used to play the math complement to wordle. It was called nerdle. I always try to be respectful.

        I appealed it just because that’s me. I really don’t care and stored it on my list of the foolishness that surrounds us.

  26. Steady very light snow here in Woburn during the past 90 minutes. It’s so light, that it’s melting on contact AND not wetting the ground. 🙂

    1. OH MY! I see some very light snow here in JP as well. 🙂
      So light, I didn’t see it looking out before. Not until your post where upon I took a closer look. 🙂

  29. Thanks, TK.

    About a 5 or 6 inch snowfall here in Havertown, Pennsylvania (just west of Philadelphia). Eclipses anything Boston has gotten in a single event in over 2 years. It’s pretty. Helped my sister shovel early this morning. Really enjoyed seeing measurable amounts of snow. But it’s kind of weird having to travel 340 miles south (!) to find winter. Still a very light snow falling out of the sky.

  30. Since there were only 2 participants in my little quiz, I owe
    them an answer. So the significance of the Beatles
    tune “I saw her Standing there” was this.

    I met my wife at a college mixer in 1965.
    She was literally just standing there and she WAS 17 !!!!
    And we did dance and I did fall in love with her and I DID marry her. 🙂

    1. Did I get the wrong song? I thiught it wss plesse please me

      And all of that aside …what a lovely, lovely story. Thank you for sharing ❤️

  31. In baseball, when you’re in a funk as, say, a hitter, they say the guy “can’t buy a hit.” Well, that’s kind of the situation Boston is in. It’s a “no snow zone.”

    Seeing real snow banks and plows on side streets doing actual plowing in an area well south of Boston is interesting.

    2. But not totally unsual for an El Nino mid-late winter and also kind somewhat expected based on my winter forecast. 🙂 I’m pleased with how it’s verifying this year.

      Just need that snowy interlude in March now. 🙂

      1. But what about February ? I know we have plenty left but my gut tells me we will be way below average for snow this year . February is going fast & March storms need to line up perfectly in my opinion.

  32. Should be a subtropical cyclone off the Brazil coast (South Atlantic) within 24 hours. That basin doesn’t see much tropical cyclone activity because of the more prominent wind shear in what’s already a limited development region. The subtropical version is more common there with up to a couple per year in general.

        1. That is it. Jury’s out though. This is borderline tropical. The last time I think there was a true tropical was 2019. Those are more rare than subtropicals down there.

          There’s just not a lot of oceanic real estate to develop tropicals efficiently.

  33. JP Dave, now that story you just posted is absolutely lovely. It’s Valentine’s Card worthy. Send the note yo Sir Paul McCartney. He’d love to read it.

  35. Vicki – You mentioned that you were put in FB jail for posting an Imgur link to radar. For some reason, some of those radar links that you’ve posted here have required that I state I am over 18 year old. I lied and said that I am 🙂

    I don’t understand it, but this could be related to the FB issue.

    1. Hmmmmm. Very good comment. I have no clue why but bet you are right. I sure don’t post anything that requires a person to be over 18 but it’s entirely possible. Anyone know why this would happen

      1. FYI I remember someone saying you had to be over 18 and then the link said something about adult content when they clicked it. Not sure what day and who.

        1. I remember that too. I think it was SClarke but JPD opened same link without problem. No clue what is happening but need to switch. Just don’t want to pay

  37. Some sun out here in JP.

    Looks like snow showers/squalls? Heading towards the East.
    We shall see what they end up like near the coast.

    2. This would be the trough that was mentioned in my discussion.

      Development is right on schedule. Short-range guidance did a good job.

  39. Thanks TK.

    Joshua you should be happy even though no snow, pls tunic cold nights this week. Down into the low 20’s and teens.

  40. TK. I can confirm posts are oddly disappearing. I thought a couple of mine had but passed it off as something I did. But at least one other person mentioned it earlier. Could have been Longshot. So I was watching mine more closely

    No moderation comment. Nothing. Just come back and it’s not here

    1. That’s what happened to me when I responded to you with a couple of comments earlier in the week. Never appeared.

    2. I recall WordPress doing this before.
      Unexplained cause. They’re not going into spam and they are not going into moderation.

      Around the same time I noticed that some posts would go into moderation with typos in them and there were so many that I knew they were not user error. I’ve had a couple of those this week too.

      I assume we are looking at a similar glitch. The last time this happened it was out of our hands and we just had to wait for it to clear itself or them to fix it.

    1. That’s actually convective – snow shower – not stratiform, so it isn’t technically “steady snow” It’s a snow shower on the northeastern tip of the line that has the snow squall warning on it.

  44. I received a SNOW SQUALL WARNING On my phone. What a JOKE!!!! so far all we have gotten were a few snow flurries/light snow shower.

    There is more out there. but don’t expect much here.

    Yesterday’s HRRR nailed this.

    1. They issue those as boxes, like SVR tstorm warnings, and given the nature of how quickly they can change, it’s the correct way to do it. So not every square inch of the “box” is going to see the worst of it. There really isn’t any other way to do it other than just watch the radar. But for people in the area who rely on the alerts, these will come to the phones so they can be on the look-out, in case they’re in line for them.

      1. I get that. Still doesn’t diminish the fact that it PISSES the living HELL out of me!

        The current batch of showers/squalls is SPLITTING the UPRIGHTS! Batch going North and another South with
        very little to NOTHING in between. What a surprise. 🙂

        1. I couldn’t be bothered to get mad about snow showers passing either side of me. I guess that’s where we differ. 🙂

          1. Ordinarily I wouldn’t give 2 craps. Just indicates
            what kind of NON-WINTER this has been.

            I still have NOT worn a Winter coat of any sort. 🙂

  48. The gfs, GDPS and the Euro all have a system for 2/23/2/24.
    It will be just a matter of track/intensity and precip type.

    For that matter, the ICON as well.

    1. I get credit. I’m the one who showed jpdave imgbb. I switched to finding an alternative when people said my map collages looked low resolution.

      1. You are 100% correct and I SHOULD have given you credit, but that was so long ago, I am afraid I had forgotten. 🙂

        1. So does it now allow videos? And I started to sign up for an account but it wanted me to add a CC#. Said it wouldn’t charge for a free membership but still…….

  50. Very nice snow shower here now. High density moderate to large flakes. Vis dropped to 1/4 mile. Coming out of it now.

      1. Looks like the last one is out by Acton. We’ll see if the trajectory takes it over my area and IF it holds together. 🙂

  51. For those who want to see the real deal, have a look at Apple TVS Masters of the Air! So realistic, I marvel at how they filmed it. These men were heroes!!! Unbelievable aerial combat footage and they hold back nothing. NOT for the faint of heart. Lots of blood and gore. This is what it took to help defeat Hitler! The story of American B-17 bomber crews stationed in England making bombing runs against the Nazis.

    HIGHLY recommended.

  52. Thanks TK!

    I love snow squalls, looks like a good one went right over my old home. Wish I could’ve made a quick teleport trip over for that one 😉

    We are right in the heart of the well predicted stretch of colder and snowier weather in the Northeast/mid-Atlantic. Ironically, the long range forecast has in many ways been easier than the short term forecast of late. Obviously there’s some disappointment about the lack of snow in some people’s backyards, but on the whole, this is one of the more wintry stretches the region has seen in years. Just ask that wild band of super narrow but intense snow that brought 6-12+” to parts of PA/NJ last night!

    1. You would think differently in my back yard.
      This has been one of the most PATHETIC PUTRID Winters
      of my entire life. Just BRUTAL!
      As I stated above, I have yet to wear a Winter Coat. 🙂

      1. No doubt about it, the Boston area is a snow hole this year. This has turned into a very solid snow winter for a lot of the mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. Northern New England has done ok as well. We’ll see though, like TK I still wouldn’t be surprised if you squeeze out at least one bigger storm before spring 😉

        2. Hi WxWatcher. Boston sure is. I can’t really complain. We had a seven inch storm. Rest have been meh. I’d love a wallop here

  53. Looking forward: the end of the coming week is definitely a watch period. Not a great feel right now for how that will play out, but there’s potential.

    Beyond that: Raging -PNA and continued rain/snow onslaught for the West Coast. IMO, the next ~7 days are the end of it for sustained cold in the East. That doesn’t mean it can’t snow or get briefly cold beyond then (we say this every year!). But from 3/1 onward, to me it looks like either an early spring, or a “fake” early spring followed by a climatologically modified return to “winter” towards mid March. Maybe leaning towards the latter…

  54. That was quite a snow squall.

    4 minutes top, but I was driving in it and the visibility was no more than 25 ft.

    Dropped a 1/4 inch in those 4 minutes.

  55. Looks like the last squall/snow shower that was out by Acton
    is going to manage to squeak by my area “just” to the North.
    I “may” get brushed by the Southern extent of it. Not sure.
    Even so, it has Weakened a bit from what it was previously.

    2. Surprise surprise. I got into the Southern end of the echo.
      Nice snow shower.
      I hesitate to call it a squall. Looks great just the same

  56. We missed the heavy squall that moved thru Coventry earlier as we were cross country skiing over in Farmington. Had a warning here as well and looked like a whiteout for a few minutes on the garage camera. Didn’t look like much accumulation but we did end up with 1.25” this am in the batch of snow that moved thru on the northern edge of that storm.

  57. By the way., that storm last night was another crazy one with a narrow intense band and a sharp cutoff on the north side. Allentown PA had 14” on the south side of town while the airport on the north side only recorded 5”. Crazy 2-5” per hour rates in that band.

    Similarly Brooklyn and Staten Island recorded 7” while JFK had only 2”.

  58. Mark we saw that same thing in CT on Tuesday with a narrow band of heavy snow. The snow rates here were 1-2 inches an hour not 2-5 inches an hour like what happened in parts of PA and NJ

    1. Yes, two very odd storms. Hopefully the next one is a bit more widespread so we can get everyone in on the action.

  59. Tough winter for snow lovers in the Boston area. Hopefully they get a good size storm before this winter is over.

  61. I lost another post. Oops

    My niece told me my grand niece will go home tomorrow evening. She will go to Mass Eye and ear in the next two weeks to make she’s her hearing was not affected. Thank you to everyone for your thoughts and prayers.

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