Sunday February 18 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Today through tonight low pressure takes a track eastward while passing to our north. Its warm front sends a batch of high / mid level clouds through this morning. Some of you may have seen a nice sunrise if you were up early for it, but now we’ll get some limiting of the sun for a few hours this morning as that front comes by, otherwise uneventfully. While technically we’ll be in the “warm sector” of this passing low, it’s not going to be a warm day. Yes you may notice now as we head through mid February that an increasing sun angle makes the sun feel warmer, but temperatures today still run near to a little below normal, made to feel colder still by a gusty wind. Previously, I spoke of the chance of passing snow showers in northern portions of the WHW forecast area today, but during the day these are not very likely. If we are to see any, it would be with the approach and passage of the low’s cold front this evening / tonight as the system moves down the St. Lawrence Valley into southeastern Canada. Moisture is less available than it was for the trough that produced yesterday’s snow showers/squalls, so I’m not expecting much, just a few spotty light snow showers at most. Monday, behind the front and ahead of approaching high pressure, we will experience sun and passing clouds, an active breeze, and dry weather. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday and early Wednesday with lots of sun and a seasonably chilly day Tuesday, and a cold night following that with a clear sky / calm wind combination. During Wednesday as the high center slips off to the east, and we start a warming process, we’ll see some cloudiness return to limit the sun, a little more wind, but a milder afternoon after that cold start. This milder regime will continue Thursday as we start to see more cloudiness still ahead of an approaching low pressure area and frontal system, which can bring precipitation to us by Thursday evening or night. A larger storm at that time will be located well offshore, not close enough to impact the region.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun with the most limited sun this morning and again later in the day and the most sun during the midday hours. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH except 20-30 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH along the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief snow shower may occur southern NH / northern MA. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Mix/rain potential by evening or night. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Low pressure brings unsettled weather to start the period, and another smaller system may impact the region with a period of precipitation sometime over the February 24-25 weekend, with yet another system potentially approaching the region at the end of the period. None of these look like “big events” at this time but will monitor of course as guidance out that far is wishy-washy, like Charlie Brown. 😉

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

Pattern may support a couple unsettled weather systems or even one more prolonged period of unsettled weather during this time frame. Continued lower than average confidence even for this time period’s typical uncertainty. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

58 thoughts on “Sunday February 18 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)”

    1. Works out nicely for me again. Just like last February which was fairly quiet. Both last year and this year I’ve been doing a lot of running back and forth to hospitals and rehabs (with my mom to visit my brother last year after his stroke, and to visit my mom this year on her recent hospital and current rehab stay). These patterns have been great for all of that and the related errands. NO complaints from me. 🙂

      This reminds me of the “where did winter go” period from the end of the 1970s into the early 1980s at the start of the SNE “snow drought” of the 1980s. Boston went almost 4 years without a snowstorm of 6 inches or more and there were all kinds of stories in the media about how it doesn’t snow around here anymore. Sound familiar? 😉

  8. Vicki, I just saw your post about your grand niece from last night. What wonderful news! Prayers for absolutely no after effects in her hearing.

  11. Thanks TK and happy to hear the great news Vicki!

    A very chilly 12F at the house this AM with the snowpack and clear skies.

    GFS seems to have backed off a bit on the magnitude and duration of the “torch” in the long range. Lots of 30s and 40s for the remainder of the month and then maybe a couple days in the 50s around 2/29-3/1 before a strong cold front moves through. At least that’s this mornings prognostication….

    1. We never torch here. It was never in the cards to begin with. Last time that was depicted in the longer range it failed as well. It’s just not “cold” because we haven’t had much polar jet nearby. And it’s El Nino. A lot of Pacific flow.

      But this isn’t like those winters (2000-2001) for example, where we were dominated by warm ridging. Very different animal.

      1. Yeah hence my quotes around “torch”. I was highly suspect of a few of those runs the GFS had yesterday with many areas cracking 70 the first couple days of March.

        1. The GFS is notorious for lighting itself on fire with 2m temps in the longer range.

          The model is imitating the older version of the ECMWF with overdoing amplitude of just about everything.

  13. Not that it will top 70, but I remember several days around March 18, 2012, that were in that temp area. I remember pretty much the same during feb vacation in maybe 1990?

  16. And just like that, pretty much any semblance of a real warmup is gone from the 12z GFS, LOL. 12z CMC is not very warm thru 240 hours either.

    I’d use extreme caution with the long range models right now. Then again the short range haven’t been doing too hot either 🙂

  17. To TK,

    Took a look at South Atlantic, SSE of Rio de Janeiro, and I cannot tell if the disturbance is more like a TS or more like a Hurricane. It’s so rare. I think Brazil saw a hurricane earlier this century, but I know nothing about it. Time to look it up.

    1. It’s not as rare as you may think. 🙂

      Pure tropical systems are somewhat rare (every several years on average, sometimes long periods between), but not super-rare.

      Subtropical systems are common – about 1 per year.

  21. Greetings from the post side of the meridian!

    This afternoon just a quick note on what the 12z guidance has shown me to supplement what’s in the regular blog discussion above…

    Today’s an interesting day from a weather geek perspective. Most people would find it “boring” but it’s not boring at all if you are into WEATHER. We had a batch of mid and upper level clouds go through this morning-midday which was basically warming aloft. The surface warm front is weak and even though now we’re in the “warm sector” of the low that’s going to pass north of us tonight, it’s not really that warm – near to below normal temps. Well, I did say it was a weak warm front right? Warm front doesn’t always mean warm-up, and cold front doesn’t always mean temperature drop. They are clearly defined in the text books as such, and those are generally good rules of thumb, but some of those rules need to be modified for time of year, geographical location, and specifics of meso scale and even micro scale meteorological factors. Anyway, I’m going all tangential on you. The point is, we’re in the warm sector, and it’s still cold, and even when the cold front drops through tonight and early Monday, it doesn’t really get any colder Monday. Before that happens though, looking at the satellite loop you can see more concentrated stratocumulus clouds to our west that might make it in here, and also some ocean-generated clouds that are traversing southeastern areas on a southwesterly wind.

    Tuesday’s halcyon all the way. Tuesday night is a great radiational cooling night. I’m wondering if I need to spread the temps out well beyond the range I have to account for ideal temp drop in the rural low spots while keeping it “less cold” in the heat islands of “urbania”. 😉

    The midweek forecast is the same as described above. I mentioned a warming trend, but it’s a modest one, and it may still be cold enough for some areas to see snow/mix Thursday night when the next system arrives, despite a south wind ahead of it.

    I think Friday we clear out faster than some guidance has. In other words, this system should be more progressive even though there’s an offshore storm at midweek that hints of blocking. Yup, complex weather. It can happen.

    I feel that the weekend system is a minor one.

    The last 4 days of February (26th through 29th) contain what may be a battle zone over New England. High pressure takes residence in eastern Canada while warm air from the south tries to head this way. The 2 basic ingredients are in place for a stretch of unsettled weather, and yes it’s getting pretty far out into the future but my target zone of time for that is February 27 & 28. And yay, we get an extra day of meteorological winter this year thanks to leap year! Go us! I think that’ll be the day for my February foot-dip into the Atlantic at Hampton Beach.

    We also (we as in people in general, not specifically here) have to get away from the “winter’s over” repetitive thing we do EVERY year. Winter runs into late March. Winter weather can occur into April. Any year. It doesn’t matter what the pattern HAS BEEN. The past doesn’t have a bearing on the future, trust me. Yes, I know climatology makes cold and snow less likely as we head through the weeks. I’ve been doing this a long time. I’d be ignorant not to acknowledge that. But also, it’s a FACT (check the stats if you don’t believe me) that snowstorms and very cold weather can occur in our region into early spring. Not that you need me to remind you, but now re-armed with this knowledge, don’t be afraid to remind other people of it.

    I still think Boston has a fair shot to receive their largest snowfall of the season in time that lies ahead of us, and get their largest snowfall since January of 2022. Yeah, don’t count it out folks. 🙂

    Helped mom eat lunch today. She didn’t each all that much of her turkey dinner – but she did try a little of everything at least. But my goodness, did she ever attack the cherry pie dessert! 😉

    Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

    1. Great to hear about your Mom and that she enjoyed desert!

      Thanks for your thoughts on the upcoming pattern too.

  22. Solid rain in Florida today, including Daytona, forcing a postponement of the Daytona 500 to 4:00 p.m. Monday.

    It’s been cool and wet quite often in FL this winter. Did someone say El Nino? 😉

    Weather will be dry for the re-try!

  23. MJO update…

    This index has dropped into the “too weak to count for anything” circle at the time it would be passing through favorable snow phases 8, 1, and 2, and is set to strengthen and come out of the circle into phases 3 through 5 in early March. The MJO has been the least favorable for snow events I have seen it for the longest stretch of all the time I’ve even known what it was.

  24. Has anyone watched the dynasty on apple? Apple May be one of the few streaming services I don’t have. I’m glad Brady opened up and want to hear his words but not sure if it’s worth one more service

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