Wednesday February 21 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Before we go into the outlook for the next 5 days, let’s take a look at some current weather that’s quite interesting. As you know, the forecast for overnight was for generally calm conditions under a clear sky, setting up radiational cooling. This was optimized for some places in southeastern MA, such as Falmouth, Taunton, and Martha’s Vineyard. The airport MVY sits in the middle of the island in a relative low spot. They were already as 15 degrees at 1 a.m. and have since dropped further to 12, with a few point of just 9, as the wind has continued to stay calm there. Meanwhile, just across the water at Nantucket, with a light wind blowing, they are a dozen + 1 warmer at 25. Up to Boston, as of 6 a.m. they sit at 26 with a northerly breeze passing over relatively warmer ocean water before it reaches the temperature sensor. As a result, their dew point is also quite a bit higher at 17, compared to Martha’s Vineyard’s single digit dp. As a segue to the outlook, I’ll mention that the same ocean water will play a role in keeping coastal areas cooler than inland areas as we move through the day today. High pressure nudging its way toward southeastern Canada will deliver a light easterly air flow to the region, and as the sun warms the land more efficiently, that easterly flow will keep the coastal areas cooler, thanks to ocean water temperatures now near to a little below 40 degrees. We’re already seeing some low clouds from the ocean start to move into Cape Cod and other eastern coastal areas, and these will be around at times along the coastal plain during the day today while inland areas see more sunshine. Additionally, some high, thin clouds are fanning up from the south. These are from a large ocean storm that, while it looks a bit threatening on the weather map, will stay offshore to our east and southeast before moving out to sea. Our next round of unsettled weather is going to come from the west, in the form of a trough of low pressure aloft and two surface lows. The first will travel to our northwest Thursday night and early Friday, dragging a warm front through the region. This front will send a batch of precipitation through the region late Thursday night and early Friday – mainly in the form of rain though some brief wet snow may occur in higher elevations from north central MA through southwestern NH as the air should be just cold enough to support it. A second low pressure wave will move up an approaching cold front during the day Friday to produce a couple rounds of rain showers. Depending on the speed of this wave, we may or may not start to see a clearing process, at least to the west, before the day is over. Areas west of I-95 would stand the greatest chance of being post-rain and seeing breaking clouds before nightfall. But in general, plan on an unsettled day Friday. This will be a fairly light event, with precipitation amounts of generally under 0.50 inch expected. The weekend looks like a dry one. Saturday will feature a gusty breeze and will by the colder of the 2 days as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and drags colder air in from Canada between itself and departing low pressure. High pressure moves over the region Saturday night into Sunday. This sets up a cold Saturday night with another clear sky / light wind combination. Sunday will feature plenty of sun and a modest warm-up after a cold start.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds favoring the eastern coastal plain. More sunshine elsewhere but filtered at times by some high cloudiness. Highs 36-43, coolest in coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers, may begin as mix/snow showers some interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers through mid afternoon. Breaking clouds possible especially west of I-95 late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

A quick-moving trough may bring a few snow showers to the region February 26. A southwesterly flow brings a milder trend but also the chance of a couple rounds of rain showers from later February 27 through early February 29 before a wind shift to west or northwest brings dry, colder weather for late period. Details of low pressure / frontal timing will need to be fine-tuned.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

The first half of the period is most likely to feature dry weather, with the latter half of the period more likely to feature unsettled weather. Variable temperatures, typical for this time of year, but should average somewhat above normal for the period overall.

75 thoughts on “Wednesday February 21 2024 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank uou TK

    21 here this morning.

    Ave high for Boston is now up to 40
    Winter is waning as climatology eats away at Winter.

    Does Winter have a big snow storm left in it? We,’ll find out. My guess is no. March will have to go some to make up for this crapoy Winter so far. Does it have the legs?????

      1. Interesting. Thank you. I am sure TK doesn’t agree, but I tend to go along with what Eric is saying. We shall see.

    1. Thank you it indeed did ! It’s amazing that major things can be done without cutting you open from the outside .

  6. “Does it have the legs?” Well, I feel like that question should have been put differently: “Did it ever have the legs to begin with?” It’s been a non-winter thus far, and going forward I don’t see any reason to think that winter will somehow make a miraculous comeback. If anything, the opposite may be true.

    While I have enjoyed the sunny wintry-like days we’ve had, they’ve been rather infrequent. Not much ice on the waterways, almost no snow and lots of rain (though lately there’s been less). That’s how I believe this winter will be remembered.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Happy to hear some positive medical news from several of you!! Best wishes to everyone who is or has loved ones fighting those battles!

    1. To add to that, my brother made his first walk from his apartment to the dining room (with only a cane), and then after a short break, walked back to his apartment. Huge milestone.

  9. Weather pattern:

    We are finally nearing the end of our latest multi day deluge here in California. A short break awaits us the next 7-9 days. But we’re already looking at what lies beyond for the first week or two of March: a high chance of yet another parade of storms which may be the strongest yet, and that would really be saying something. So there’ll be a brief pause, but you aren’t done hearing about California weather in the national headlines…

    What does it mean for the East? No sustained cold. And there won’t be for the remainder of this winter, it’s too late now given what the Pacific pattern is and will be. There is definitely a risk for a pattern flip somewhere in mid or late March. But by then, you’re just delaying spring, not extending winter. Most of New England will finish with a top 5 warmest winter on record, some places will be number 1.

    Certainly can’t rule out a freak snowstorm in mid-late March either, we know it can happen. But it would be a “spring snowstorm” versus a “winter snowstorm”.

    2. WxWatcher, just curious about the next deluge. Any idea
      what the snow levels will be? I just want to see how much
      snow pack the San Gabriels can build. Any chance it would
      near record territory?

      Don’t ask me why I have this fascination about the San Gabriels.
      Perhaps it is the latitude and proximity to Los Angeles? Not sure, but I sure do have it. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Many thanks

      1. Sorry for the slow response, but the indications are these storms will be colder, perhaps much colder, than other storms. The moisture from these next storms may tend to favor the Sierra more than the SoCal mountains, but I’d still expect some big snow pack gains in the San Gabriels! I’ll definitely be watching!

        1. Awesome. Thank you for the response. Much appreciated.

          Mt. Baldy picked up a foot of snow at the summit and 8 inches at the base of the 2 big lifts. Only a trace at the parking lot at about 6,500 feet. Main snow level was at about 7,500 feet. This last one was much warmer than the previous one. 🙂

  12. Thank you TK. Last weekend of meteorological winter coming up. Seems as if we were just saying it was the first. I have no clue where time goes.

    1. It sure does fly! The older we get the faster it seems to go.
      I wake up and it’s Saturday, I wake up again and it is June and I wake up again and it’s Christmas and then it is April again.
      Rinse and repeat till I don’t wake up!!

  14. Joshua, I had said a couple of nights ago that I’m trying to get our blue birds back with cracked peanut feed. Well, they are back. At least two of them. These photos are really hard to see because the sun is so bright. The one on the feeders is a screen shot of my ring camera. He’s In the middle

    https://ibb.co/tYfMmwg
    https://ibb.co/c3YDLF4

      1. Thank you. I have the ring camera sitting between two tree branches so get to watch them up close. I almost bought a feeder with a built in camera but decided to try this first. Saved $159

  15. Beautiful shots of the bluebirds, Vicki!

    Too bad a company I like, bluebird bio, is for all intents and purposes a penny stock despite being one of the most innovative firms around.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    So happy about the wonderful news about loved ones in the WHW family!!! May everyone continue to get healthy and stronger!

  18. Thanks TK.

    Yeah winter never got started. I went way above and will clearly be way wrong.

    Glad to hear everyone’s health is doing better.

  19. Boston will be lucky to stay ahead of NYC let alone even remotely catch up with Worcester in seasonal snowfall.

  22. Old salty. Your comment about loving the San Gabriel’s had me digging out an old photo album. I always loved the comtrast between LA and the mountains. Back when I was there, the smog was so thick we often couldn’t see them clearly

    These are photos from Rudy Vallee’s home at the very top of the Hollywood hills. I have a ton of slides I took at night from the rooftop balcony, but i have not dug them out in years. These are from a few old Christmas cards my mom saved.

    Top is his home (if the links copied in order). The tennis court was built on top of the lower level. All views are from views from him home

    https://ibb.co/LkjFDKs
    https://ibb.co/tc6Lg2S
    https://ibb.co/bz4qKTS
    https://ibb.co/NFP1Qds

  24. Thanks, TK.

    The wind was strong and it was freezing on Boston Common at noon. I have to go back again later, so I hope the wind subsides. Beautiful day, though!

  26. Just so you know, the weather could be worse. It’s been raining pretty much non-stop for months across the UK. That doesn’t change moving forward. Sure, the occasional dry day, but it’s few and far between. Love the Met Office forecasts. They’re not made for TV, thank goodness. Rather, they explain what’s going on, use the word “uncertain” frequently and don’t hype. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOVUu1ip1YY

    1. Winter is definitely over in England and the low countries. It’s been over for well over a month, and frankly never really showed up. Scotland did have several periods of winter, though muted.

  27. If I may ask for prayers again. My cousins husband was diagnosed yesterday by his team at Dana with a very aggressive form of leukemia. I’m still struggling with wrapping my head around this as my heart is breaking for him, my cousin, and their family. He had no symptoms except a wbc off at his recent physical.

    1. On a positive note, I cannot recall if I mentioned here that Mac’s twin’s older daughter is carrying twins in two different uteruses. There is a one in three billion chance of this. The original thought was they would arrive eight weeks early. Now there is hole it may be closet to four or five.

    1. Little bit of pain today but all & all quite well . She was moved today to a brand new floor & has a huge private room . Heading out soon & I will return tomorrow by 11am for the day , nice of you to ask & im sorry to hear about your news .

  30. Vicki, I am so sorry to hear about your cousin’s husband. While I don’t know about the type of leukemia he has. But, from all my work in the pharmaceutical space, I’m very familiar with the strides made against many types of leukemia in the past 25 years. Really significant ones.

    SSK, I’m happy that your wife is doing well. So glad she has a private room, hopefully with a decent view. Take care.

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