Thursday February 22 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

High pressure’s grip on our region will loosen today. We start out with a calm and frosty morning for many, but some clouds have continued to blanket some coastal areas of MA from Cape Ann to the South Shore, and where the clouds were, radiational cooling was limited by the stratus blanket. Another cloud area expanded out of the mountains of western New England into north central MA and southwestern NH in the last couple of dark hours, slowing the temperature fall in those areas as well. During the day today as high pressure continues to drift further away from the region, and a low pressure trough approaches from the west, we can see additional areas of clouds but also areas of sunshine, and it will become milder than the last few days. A warm front will cross the region later tonight with a swath of precipitation, mainly light rain, but this may begin as a mix or a period of wet snow in some higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, but with inconsequential accumulation of only brief coatings possible on unpaved surfaces before anything that falls melts away. Wet weather will continue at times through midday across the area Friday as a cold front follows the warm front and a weak wave of low pressure ripples along it. I am still of the meteorological opinion that this front will pull offshore before the day is over and the low pressure wave will exit to the northeast, pulling in enough dry air for at least breaking clouds / partial clearing, especially from the I-95 belt west, so that the very end of the day Friday may see brighter sky, even a nice sunset potentially. Clouds linger longer into Friday night over Cape Cod as the front ambles further out to sea. Our weekend looks like a dry and cold one. A sun/cloud mix can be expected Saturday – a few passing fair weather clouds along with some patchy mid level clouds from a minor disturbance passing by. This will also be a breezy/windy day making it feel colder than it is. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night and Sunday. The set-up allows for radiational cooling Saturday night with quite a cold start to Sunday, but brighter, uninterrupted sun and less wind allowing it to feel less harsh during the day. A weak trough will whistle through the region Monday morning (based on current expected timing). This feature may produce a quick passing snow shower, otherwise should lead to a generally dry day with seasonable temperatures.

TODAY: Areas of clouds but still plenty of sunshine for most of the region. Highs 40-47. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Late evening / overnight periods of rain but likely beginning as snow north central MA and southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers through early afternoon. Additional rain showers possible RI / southeastern MA into late afternoon. Breaking clouds possible especially west of I-95 late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. An early morning snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

A southwesterly air flow becomes established into the middle of next week with a couple rounds of wet weather (timing TBD), culminating in a stronger cold frontal passage sometime on Leap Day (February 29). Uncertainty whether or not we go right to dry, colder weather March 1-2 or if a wave of low pressure comes up along the offshore frontal boundary to bring a precipitation threat.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Additional unsettled weather potential mid to late period which can include a frozen precipitation threat as temperatures may end up somewhat colder than modeled by medium range guidance. This is not a high confidence outlook however.

96 thoughts on “Thursday February 22 2024 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    It sure has been a nice few days.

    22 here this morning after 21 the last 2 mornings. Nothing earth shattering, just some reasonable Winter cold. Days have been 37, 38

    Still waiting for snow. it will come when I have given up and am in Spring mode which I am practically in anyway Yea, I know, a tad premature. We shall see.

      1. I have T-Mobile and I am good for the moment anyway.
        I understand that some T-Mobile customers are affected as well.

        1. I did see that and also some verizon

          It says use a landline for 911 if cell doesn’t work. I have not been hooked up to my landline for years.

          1. Who knows, now maybe landlines and rotary dials will make a comeback.

            I still mostly use a landline. I even have a rotary dial phone as a back-up. When I plug it in and it rings, my son tells me that it sounds too much like the phone in the movie Klute, or that the Gestapo is calling.

            1. I dropped my landline when Verizon started neglecting it. The final straw was Verizon wanting to come in and re-wire everything for FIOS.
              I said screw you and canceled the service and bundle my phone with Comcast. It has worked our great so far and SAVED me over $50 per month to boot. 🙂

              1. I have my landline number but only because it was the one mac and I had from the start of our marriage. I just forward calls from it to my cell. I have verizon and have had the best luck with it. Comcast kept calling me to get me to sign up. I said no. Two days later, there was a comcast truck at thr utility boxes in my front yard. I went out and the guy said he was disconnecting verizon and setting up Comcast. I can’t post my response here.

                Comcast even sent me all the equipment. We may still have it in the basement.

                They all seem to have issues. Right now our Wi-Fi signal isn’t going far enough.

  7. re: Cell outage
    Heard from others at similar agencies to where I work.
    It looks like it is ONLY AT&T.
    Reports of issues with Verizon and T-Mobile are likely
    related to Persons trying to call an AT&T Cell phone.

    Big failure? OR RUSSIAN HACKERS? hmmm

    1. Yep. We wondered the same. I have two step verification on everything and tried to use it to get into a non financial account and didn’t get a code txt. I tend to think of those things first but my daughter wisely suggested not using anything that needs verification right now.

      1. I get txts from my daughters. But I cannot make phone calls. Time to her a cheap land land that I can plug in if needed

  9. Longshot .. What a wild Bruins game in Edmonton!
    11 goals in the game. These teams have the same record. Edmonton is the fastest team in the NHL ( or one of them anyway).

  11. I saw the physician-humanitarian-medical anthropologist Paul Farmer speak twice; once as part of a symposium that also included Robert Gallo (discoverer of the HIV virus). Farmer transformed global public health. If there was a chance to turn back the clock (about 3 decades) and have a do-over in life, I’d do the work Farmer did, though in all likelihood not nearly as well. Here, I remember Paul Farmer, who died 2 years ago at the age of 62. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/02/22/remembering-paul-farmer-pioneer-in-global-public-health/?sh=6b9189396372

    1. Good news Vicki! My boys have AT&T and neither lost service and they are on opposite ends of the country right now. 🙂

  14. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

    I think this overall upcoming warmer outlook got me thinking about summer.

    This is only the Enso teleconnection and there are many other teleconnections, but I would submit to look at 1972-1973. Very similar. An initial La Niña, that went to an El Niño of similar strength and duration as the current one and as forecasted to do this year, sometime in the spring of 1973, transitioned back to La Niña.

    Anyhow, summer of 1973 had 19 (90F+) days.

    June : 3
    July : 4
    August : 10
    September : 2

    Atlantic hurricane season in summer 1973 was slightly below average activity. Don’t know if the waters out by the Cape Verde islands was as warm then as it is now.

    1. Very nice!!! Thank you for sharing.

      What is that strange white substance covering everything?
      Very Weird!!!!

    1. We still have snow. We’re just in a snow drought a “little” less than the one we had from 1978 to 1992 🙂

      Also, Boston had a 2 foot snowstorm winter before last. We still snow around here. 😉

      Last year, pretty much everyone west of I-95 had near to above normal snow. We definitely still snow around here.

      This has just not been a snowy winter (to-date) and last year was not a snowy winter from I-95 eastward. 🙂

      1978-1979 was not a snowy winter.
      1979-1980 was not a snowy winter.
      1980-1981 was not a snowy winter.
      1981-1982 was not a gangbusters winter, but we did have 3 major snowstorms (Dec 5-6, Jan 13-14, and April 6).
      1982-1983 was not particularly snowy with one notable storm in mid February.
      1983-1984 was not very snowy either, other than the quick heavy snowstorm at the end of March.
      1984-1985 was a no-show winter.
      1985-1986 was another no-show winter.
      1986-1987 & 1987-1988 were a bit more typical.
      1988-1989 was a no show-winter.
      1989-1990, other than the coldest December on record, was not snowy.
      1990-1991 was a no-show winter.
      1991-1992 was another no-show winter.

      Things FINALLY changed in 1992, December, the start of a big winter, and the beginning of the snowiest 30 year period in Boston’s recorded weather history. We were due for some lean snow years. Now we have seen a few after that snowy 3 decade period ended.

      1. Thanks TK. Those were the years where the ski areas struggled and many close. Heartbreaking. i we remember at least one very sizable storm in a few of those years. 1984 had a footish on March 13 1984 before big storm you mentioned end of March storm. 1978 had a thundersnow storm on Dec 9. April 29 had a footish in 1985. Daughter was watching old home videos and came across one of my then 4 and 1 year olds beside banks on our driveway almost as tall as the one year old.

        At least now we can make snow and it finally stayed cold enough to keep it this winter.

      1. You’re not nuts. You could see the smooth ice sheet from 50 yards away.

        You knew she was in trouble when she said “the snow is dry so your feet don’t get wet”, because we all know that dry snow contains NO water. 😉

  17. By the way, I had a dream last night about next winter and it was cold and snowy. Usually my dreams are pretty good indicators of the future … NOT.

  18. Slow & steady positive progress for mom continues.

    I’ll be back a bit later with a few weather comments (if even necessary).

    1. I SMELL RUSSIA ALL OVER THIS. 🙂
      But perhaps CHINA?
      I don’t think it was domestic.

      If this was due to something AT&T did, they should go out of business!

  20. Thanks TK.

    I’d say the last 10 days were probably the best stretch of winter around here. Sustained cold and 14” of snow in three separate events. Lows at the house were 10, 12, and 18 the last three mornings and there has been very little melting of snow except in areas getting strong sun exposure. Still have a good 6-8” on the ground in most of my yard and the ice on Coventry Lake actually expanded this week to the point that I even saw someone ice fishing on it this morning (which I thought was a bit bold).

    Tried to take advantage of this stretch as much as possible as I know it is coming to an end…took a couple winter hikes with the dog this past weekend and went cross country skiing as well.

    Took this shot of the sunset from the top of Case Mtn in Manchester the other night ( in TKs brother’s backyard). That’s the Hartford skyline on the horizon….if you squint you might actually see it, lol….

    https://imgur.com/a/l5eLAOa

      1. Awesome photos. Sweet pup. . And how come I get a disclaimer for my Imgur and you don’t? I need to do some Rees if

  21. And a couple deep winter shots from my son who was at Killington Monday. Was a blue bird day with good snow conditions and nearly 100 % open. They did receive 14” of new snow in the last week and expecting more tomorrow…

    Both of these shots were taken near the actual summit…. A short hike from the top of the K1 gondola:

    https://imgur.com/a/hONnqEN

    https://imgur.com/a/Pa7ybkL

  22. On the topic of skiing by the way…

    Jay Peak VT has received 30” of new snow in the last 7 days and is expecting up to another 10” tomorrow per Tim Kelley.

    Up to 241” on the season now.

    1. Parts of the Northeast are doing well for snow this year. 🙂

      We always have to be careful off the “It’s not happening in my back yard so it’s not happening anywhere” syndrome. It’s common!

      You see this more in the summer during shower/t-storm season. I’ve had people say things like “wow I bet you didn’t get your yard work done because of all the rain we had yesterday!” when they were in southern NH and got a t-storm and I was down here finishing off my yard work under sunshine. 😉

      1. For sure. If you drove pretty much any direction from Boston metro this past week, there was plenty of winter to be had.

        I posted a couple pictures from Case Mtn in Manchester above…does your brother still live near there?

  23. It always kills me to hear everyone writing off winter by Feb 20 every year. Yeah we are going to be getting mild for awhile next week but lo and behold, here comes another stratospheric warming event and -NAO showing up on the GFS and Euro for mid March!

    We are not done with snow chances, I can almost guarantee that.

    John Homenuk tweet:

    Nearly unanimous agreement on GEFS guidance for a proper SSW by the second week of March. Meanwhile, in the troposphere, the ECMWF Weeklies show a favorable -NAO preloading pattern. The window is open for high-latitude blocking to return by 3/15 or so.

    https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1760345920967725379?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

      1. Agree. And we have yet to have the full snow moon

        February’s full moon was called Snow Moon by many Native American cultures due to the typically heavy snowfall that occurs during these days.

    2. Mark I totally hear you & by all means I’m no expert but my gut says Boston will not see any decent snowstorm . There definitely won’t be one this month & I am a believer that things need to line up perfectly for a March storm , just my opinion & 50s in the forecast for next week . Of course I’m talking Boston / south

      1. Cant argue that it’s harder in mid to late March along the coastal plain vs interior areas but wouldn’t let your guard down yet. You get some blocking in place , a strong coastal storm to develop with some good dynamics, and you can easily overcome the sun angle issues, especially if the storm happens at night.

        Glad to hear your wife’s surgery went well!

        1. Thank you Mark . I go back to work second week in March & I was hoping for a big storm while I was off .

    3. I have heard all of this before only to have NOTHING Happen.
      besides mid March is just too late for my taste

  25. Tom, I read your analogy to the 1972-73 season and a reference to 19 90+ days in the summer, including 10 in August. I’m not sure if I can handle that this year. Of course, we don’t know what lies ahead. If I can get my business to pick up – it’s been sparse recently – I hope to do 2 trips to England this year: The first I will do no matter what and that will be when it’s springtime, sunny and mild there (my prediction) and still cool to perhaps cold and maybe even snowy here. This would be end of March, early April. The second is in question. Pharma is in cost-cutting mode as are some of the pharma consulting firms I work with. Hence the lack of paid projects/assignments (though I get a tremendous amount of requests for unpaid work, most of which I decline).

  26. I’m going to put my plow away in the back of the garage this weekend. Why the hell not.

    I’ll lurk here and there otherwise see y’all next “winter” 😉

    1. Now that IS a bold move, and one I’m not sure I’d make. Retrac, aren’t you in Northern Massachusetts, close to Fitchburg? I may be way off base. But if you hail from that area I might not be putting away plows or shovels before, say, the 10th of April.

      Obviously it’s up to you, and I do understand the decision. I’ve put away almost all winter gear, including my shovel, space heaters, boots, sweaters and coats, if only just to save space in my rather small apartment.

  27. Mark, you are correct that the Northeast – especially NNE and the interior of SNE where you live – has done okay this year. Heck, Northern Maine may get another foot of snow tomorrow into Saturday.

    My observations are from the snowless city of Boston. I ditched my car last year. If I still had one, I’d definitely drive up north, if only to see some snow.

    TK is correct that we’ve had relatively snowless winters in the city before. In fact, many of them. I don’t deny that. This doesn’t, however, relieve the disappointment in the past 2 winters, both in terms of lack of cold and snow.

    1. Well I wouldn’t go so far to say I am pleased with how this winter has gone to date. Even with the 14” we pulled from this abbreviated pattern change, I am only sitting at 28” on the year and I have averaged in the 60” range since I started keeping track in 2010. If we don’t get any more, it will be the second least snowy winter for me since I moved here. But I’d say the odds of that happening are pretty low. I expect to be shoveling again at some point in March.

    1. LOL, I’m feel like gambling.

      My rules for March:

      -no plowing less than 3″
      -needs to snow at night on balance
      -I believe in trends

      With above and with the disclaimer that I have no scientific basis and that I have no true idea what I’m talking about, I put my odds of needing the plow at under 25% despite living in the Massachusetts snow belt.

      This is a heads I win, tails I win situation.

      I will return to settle up in shame or glory with y’all but consider the gaunlet laid down!

      1. Kiss of death! You just guaranteed us a superstorm of 93 repeat. Thank you! I will anxiously await your walk of shame on here in a few weeks….

    1. I recall that season as quite miserable for snow to say the least. I don’t believe we even had ONE snow day. It was my first year of Junior High. Also if I’m not mistaken, it was the first time the U.S. went into year round DST due to the energy crisis, which was dropped the following year.

    1. Oh SClarke. I am surprised you have not seen silly used hundreds of times as a meteorological term 😉

      Thsnks for posting this. I do enjoy Eric.

    1. It only lasted a few minutes before tapering to smaller flakes. A bit surprised to see the snow, was expecting mainly rain here.

  34. I was thinking about the ATT outage. Color me silly, but I’d guess we will hear it was something someone at ATT did before we actually know what really happened. Yep…silly

Comments are closed.