Saturday February 24 2024 Forecast (8:35AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

We will have a dry final weekend of February. Some stubborn cloud cover will be around to start the day today but eventually the sun will take over as dry air wins out. Along with this will come a gusty wind making it feel colder than the already below normal temperatures. The wind comes courtesy of the airflow between low pressure that departed the region yesterday and high pressure that is approaching via the Great Lakes. This high pressure area will move over the region tonight, and while shutting down the wind it will also shove down the temperature under a clear sky with bright moonlight. The full moon actually occurred just after midnight today but still appears pretty full in the sky tonight. You can’t really notice it, but this is a mini moon aka the smallest looking full moon of the year because it is the full moon in which the moon is furthest away from the Earth. After a cold start on Sunday, with less wind and full sunshine well into the afternoon it will feel considerably less cold than today will despite only a modest rise in temperature over today. A quick moving disturbance will traverse the region late Sunday night through Monday morning, and may produce a few rain and snow showers near the South Coast with a quick snow flurry possible to the north. This system will lead milder air into the region as dry weather takes over again for the remainder of the day Monday, along with a gusty southwest breeze. The southwesterly air flow that is introduced on Monday will become more established Tuesday and Wednesday, transporting more mild air into the region, but the price we will pay for this will be episodes of wet weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. We may be able to salvage several hours of dry weather and at least partial sun on Wednesday while we are in this warmer southwesterly air flow. If that is the case, 60° is going to be within reach, except in coastal areas where a southwest wind comes off the water. You know what that means at this time of year and into the spring.

TODAY: Lots of clouds eventually give way to lots of sun. Highs 32-39 this morning, with a slow temperature drop midday on. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny through mid afternoon, then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Overnight rain and snow showers possible mainly along the South Coast with a few light snow showers possible to the north of there. Lows 24-31 in the evening, then a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds may produce a rain/snow shower in RI or southeastern MA, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4)

While there continues to be some uncertainty on timing, a strong cold front is expected to come through sometime on Leap Day including a band of rain showers and even possible thunderstorms. This boundary will initiate an abrupt wind shift and temperature drop as it goes by the region. I continue to lean toward a progressive scenario where the front moves well offshore quickly enough not to allow additional low pressure to come up and bring more unsettled weather. So the outlook for the first few days of March is for dry weather perhaps a ling chill to start and then a moderating trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

This remains a low confidence forecast. Best chance of unsettled weather mid period.

52 thoughts on “Saturday February 24 2024 Forecast (8:35AM)”

  2. Hopefully that forecast doesn’t have any voice text errors in it because I used that method to write most of it.

    The laptop I usually use to update the blog decided it was going to update Windows on its own even though I delayed the upgrade purposely until I had my tech around since I’m “computer-stupid”.

    Well the laptop did not listen and attempted to upgrade anyway which failed and when it gave me the option to return to the previous version I took it, except that since then it has been sitting on a black screen with the logo of the computer maker.

    That’s not good.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Something I forgot to say yesterday: TK, your November forecast for the winter was quite good. In fact, it was the best among the forecasts I read that month. That includes your February forecast for dry and cold. February has been quite dry. Has it been very cold? No. But of the 3 winter months, February will likely turn out to be the most consistently cold of the bunch (aside from the last few days of the month).

    The other thing is that you never board the hype train. And good lord do I hate hype and melodrama (it’s the phlegmatic Dutchman in me – as the Dutch say and I’m translating, “act normal, that’s crazy enough”). Remember 3 or 4 weeks ago when some mets were declaring that the Northeast was in for a snow blitz of sorts. Well, clearly that didn’t materialize this month. You never boarded that train.

    1. I thank you.
      I am not here to toot my own horn because once you let that start happening you board a different kind of train.

      My way: Old school meteorology combined with current tools. And of course I don’t have the pressure of someone breathing down my neck with ratings in mind. That’s makes a big difference.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Jacob is calling for a “wintry mix” on Thursday along with the sharp temperature drop. Does that mean the front may not be as progressive?

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ho-Hum we go on our merrily way. Nothing earth shattering
    on the horizon.

    btw, Water temp at Boston Buoy, 16 NM East of Boston is 39.6

    Not that it will do us any good.

  10. TK, I would sure appreciate links to what you are seeing. I’m finding HT-HH will have influence. Most seems to be its added erosion of the ozone layer. And also its slight addition to temperature which may hurry our level to over the 1.5 degree limit set by the Paris agreement

    What I am finding is that while HTHH may well add to it, this was already in motion due to warming.

    1. Hahahah. I’m impressed that voice did so well. I have friends who use voice ans eveeything runs together. TK does it place punctuation or do you?

      1. With any voice dictation software I’ve used – all you had to do was say “period” “comma” “dash” or “question mark”.

        1. Thank you. Folks I was thinking of use the apple dictation option. I don’t see punctuation but that may well be user and not program.

          As an aside. My FIL was using dragon wayyyyy back in the late 1990s. I so often wish he were still here to see the advances in technology.

    1. They moved off here. I was out walking. Sun was very warm, but wind had a little bit. Still very comfortable!

        1. It cleared nicely around 3:30pm for a nice sunset and viewing a pink moonrise from a restaurant at Scituate harbor.

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