Monday February 26 2024 Forecast (7:24AM)

80 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

Some quick and notable weather changes are on our menu over the next few days to round out the month of February and welcome in March too. It breaks down like this. First, a disturbance and warm front go through the region this morning with lots of clouds and a few inconsequential rain and snow showers, followed by the return of sunshine and a milder afternoon. The mild air will be dominant through Wednesday afternoon, and up to the arrival and passage of a strong cold front Wednesday evening, we’ll be in a robust southwesterly air flow. We’ll get to enjoy a fair amount of sun for at least part of Tuesday before clouds regain control thereafter. Rounds of rain showers are slated for Tuesday evening and off and on during Wednesday, but there can be some rain-free times Wednesday too. I’m just not expecting much in the way of any sunshine on Wednesday. The strongest round of precipitation – moderate to heavy showers and even a potential thunderstorm – comes on Wednesday evening just ahead of the cold front, which will sweep across the region fairly quickly. The temperature drop associated with this frontal passage may be quick enough that the rain ends as a mix of rain/snow or even a period of wet snow in some areas, but any accumulation would be limited. We will have to watch for the formation of ice on untreated surfaces that don’t dry out by Thursday morning, as the temperature will have fallen to near or below freezing by then, especially from the Boston / Providence areas westward. Dry air, a gusty wind, and temperatures above freezing (though still in the 30s) for much of the day Thursday will eliminate any icy patches. High pressure slides quickly to our south by Friday, with fair weather, a cold start, and a milder afternoon.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a few passing rain and/or snow showers morning followed by the return of abundant sunshine from west to east. Highs 45-52. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35, mildest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 50-57, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a good chance of rain showers. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of thunderstorms, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Watching for a quick, semi-sneaky low pressure area that can start the first weekend of March with at least cloudiness and potentially a bit of wet weather instead of the previously dry forecast, but the majority of the first weekend of March should end up rain-free with fairly mild temperatures. Additional refining of the weekend outlook will take place in coming updates. Another opportunity for unsettled weather may present itself by the middle to latter portion of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Fair weather is most likely from the early to mid portion of this period, with unsettled weather chances increasing later on. While the period as a whole is expected to see above normal temperatures, we may experience a chill-down before it’s over with colder air seeping southward from Canada.

80 thoughts on “Monday February 26 2024 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Nothing cooking here this morning.
    Pretty mild month of February.
    How will March be?

    1. Logan temp anomolies

      Dec: +5.1F
      Jan: +3.2F
      Feb: +2.8F so far. Might beat Jan with what is coming today thru Thurs.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    The Netherlands KNMI is already posting that February 2024 will be the mildest on record, obliterating the previous record set just a few years ago. It’s a 4.4C (!) anomaly. To say it’s been a mild winter there is a gross understatement. There’s hardly been any frost. There was no frost at all in Amsterdam the entire month of February and only 12 nights that the temperature dipped below freezing at night all winter (December through February) in the city. Coldest recorded temp in the city was 27F. Of course no subfreezing days.

    Because the trend has been so mild for so long – decades – during the winter and so relatively hot in summer during this time, you can imagine why climate change is in the news every day in the Netherlands. They’re genuinely worried about sea levels, as much of the country is below sea level.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. I’m impressed with the many countries that are acknowledging and addressing climate change. On the whole, this country is behind as well as among the biggest contributor when it comes to climate change. Although it doesn’t address the issue, I’m encouraged though when I see extensive planning by cities such as Charleston and old orchard …just to name a few.

      The Netherlands and its Nordic neighbors began addressing climate years ago. That area as a whole is well ahead of the curve. Denmark seems to be doing a remarkable job.

      https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/018/2023/022/article-A001-en.xml#:~:text=Abstract-,The%20Netherlands%20has%20committed%20to%20the%20EU's%20ambitious%20targets%20for,level%20rise%20and%20flood%20risks.

      https://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1148260/FULLTEXT01.pdf

  9. This past weekend was a blessing. I got out a lot to enjoy it, knowing that it’s probably the last cold weekend until December. It’s perhaps ironic that it’s winter-time that I can enjoy the outdoors, and summer-time that I much prefer being indoors. I’m not alone in this. I hear it from other runners, for example.

  12. Vicki, thanks for your post referencing the Nordic countries. What impresses me is that despite it being a cold winter in most of Scandinavia (that part of Europe has been the exception this winter), the public remains fully aware of the long-term trend.

    I must say I’m baffled at the lack of consciousness in the U.S. While I was in Philadelphia I chatted with several of my brother’s friends. These are well-educated doctors in their 60s and 70s. They’re very conservative, like my brother. I have no issue with that. But it’s the inane comments that get to me. For example, it had snowed last Saturday, the 17th, in Philadelphia. While I was talking about what I thought would be a neutral topic, the weather, one of my brother’s friends said with a grin “so much for global warming, huh?” The problem was he was serious and went off against Democrats who want to tax our vehicles and lifestyle, all due to a “hoax.” He thought that one snow event upended the notion that there’s climate change. Bear in in mind, Philly has has a VERY mild winter overall. Yes, my head was spinning. But because it was my brother’s birthday party I didn’t argue. I just changed the topic to sports. But then again, politics made its way into the conversation as the person I was speaking to claimed that “Mayo was a DEI hire … just awful isn’t it?.” At that point, I decided it’s best to take a bathroom break and avoid this person altogether.

    We’re in a bad moment as a country. The right and left politicize everything. There is no centrism anymore, which means you can’t have a reasoned argument with practically anyone.

  13. Place your bets here:
    Will we see ANY snowfall in boston in the next month? (Not just flakes but anything that sticks)

    My bet is no.

      1. According to Jacob, the higher sun angle alone makes it more difficult for snow, if I understood him correctly.

        1. 1936-37 = 9.0”
        2. 2011-12 = 9.3”
        3. 2023-24 = 9.7” (Final total TBD)

    2. Well a little definition does a sugarcoating count as snow . I do not think Boston / south will see any size snowstorm at all . Winter for the most part around here is done in my opinion

    2. Smart. Ours are not away yet. And they won’t be until into April. A snowblower is different. Shovels work if they are away

  18. On robins, many do not migrate. The ones that do generally come back in late February, early March. All red-winged blackbirds do migrate and they tend to return in late February, early March.

    On snow in March, I’d say our chances are limited. But what’s worse to me is that we may not see any cold at all anymore beyond some light night frosts.

    This was a North Carolina winter, in my view. While I like North Carolinians and some of the landscape there I am not fond of the weather. Years ago I turned down an academic job there as well as DC because of the weather: Summers are way too long with a gross amount of humidity (I’ve visited many times for conferences and couldn’t stand it), winters are mostly non-existent and falls aren’t special. The one season that is better is spring. They do have a real spring.

    1. I believe the older Robins stick around and the younger ones tend to migrate.

      I recently had a noisy flock of either Grackles or perhaps they were Red Winged Blackbirds gathered in a group perched on a tree top causing a ruckus.

      I take it that birds are not having troubles finding food this year with the mostly snow free ground.

      1. You may be very right about young and old. Thank you. Grackles and starlings are another that are not so much my favorite.

        I shared this a while ago. I have feeders in a front yard tree and I use the Merlin app. If you have not tried it, it is fantastic. I opened the app and stuck in my open frond window early morning a week or so ago. These are what I had at the feeder. We have since added at least three pair of bluebirds. And of course my favorite the cardinal pair

        https://ibb.co/syZnY3H
        https://ibb.co/NThyyMB

    2. You are correct about some robins. Those that remain are quieter and seen far less in open areas winter. As it gets warmer, they settle and begin to breed. This is on the early side but why they are correctly thought to be the first sign of spring.

      Red winged blackbirds are early this year. Some were seen out here as much as two weeks ago. I posted on whw to you. Although you may easily have missed it. I’d never seen a red winged blackbird till we moved here. They are pretty but like thr jays I am not a fan. Very aggressive and very loud.

      https://abcbirds.org/blog20/do-robins-migrate/

      1. They are aggressive and loud the moment they migrate north to mid June. They’re usually quiet all summer until they pack their bags and head south.

        1. Makes sense when out in the open. I think the difference is when they are around a feeder. They terrorize my littler birds all summer. But they Jays are the worst

          I just learned that the swans I have so admired are an invasive species. Photos of them are not permitted (for good reason) onthe wildlife of Worcester county and beyond FB page.

          https://ccenassau.org/environment/invasive-pests/mute-swan

  20. A toasty 55 here and it feels mighty warm out there.

    55 at the airport and Norwood as well.

    57 At Manchester.

    1. Reminds me of the whole week of mild temps in February 1983. February vacation was literally like April vacation. I was doing my paper deliveries in short sleeve shirts. 🙂 It doesn’t show up as warm for Boston because they were sea breezing. 😉

        1. Yep. 1983 and 1989 February vacations. I didn’t have anyone in school in 1983 so do not recall that one. We were having a large addition in 1989 so front door could stay open for workers to go in and kids to go out

  22. MJO update…

    No real changes from the last one. In the circle, skipping snow-favoring phases 8, 1, and 2. Out of the circle into phases 3 through 5 during the next couple weeks.

    It’s done this several times now, and enough times to think there is a relation to the HTE. I’m seeing TOO MANY THINGS that make it impossible to just brush that phenomenon aside.

    Besides, to brush an unprecedented (in our time of observing) amount of water vapor in the stratosphere aside as a non-factor is scientifically foolish anyway.

    Add MJO to the list of things to learn about once the full impact of that volcano is discovered in the years ahead of us. And I suspect it will be a very significant impact and one we’ll learn very much from. I love science. 🙂

    NOTE: You’ll notice I mentioned phases 8, 1, and 2 as snow-favoring. That is the case as you get later into the winter season. Earlier, the phases 7, 8, and 1 are the most favorable for snow up this way.

  23. Thanks TK.

    Historic heat over the middle of the country today with a strong cold front barreling into it (the same one that will go through the Northeast later this week). It’ll lead to some unseasonable severe weather potential over the Great Lakes states tomorrow.

    More pressingly though, it’s having disastrous implications over portions of the Plains this afternoon. This is shortwave IR (basically heat sensing) satellite. Look in particular over Nebraska and the Texas Panhandle. Very bad…

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-central-07-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

    Another perspective:

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-central-natcolorfire-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

    Massive grass/brush fires, some of which have run 10-15+ miles just today. There’s a lot of open land in those areas, thankfully, but there’s still going to be some significant impacts.

    1. Some businesses are removing their “snow sticks” for plow guidance and even a few have started spring landscaping. This is a mistake in February – I don’t care what “the models” say.

      Did we see the April 1 1997 event coming 5 weeks in advance? How about the April 6 1982 blizzard? Or the late April 1987 storm that dumped up to 10+ inches of snow away from the coast. I think not. It’s just plain foolish to jump the gun no matter what the pattern has been. Hmmm what else. March 13 1993. March 29 1984. March 10 1978 (nobody remembers this one, but 7-10 inches inland). April 1996 – several events. I could go on. You don’t ignore history and you don’t forecast and make decisions like that on “gut feeling”.

      Call me mean, but I kind of hope we get nailed now. Sometimes a harsh lesson is needed. Yup, I said it. And I’m not sorry either. 😉

      1. I remember every one of those. Plus the May 9, 1978 or was it 77. I’m always off a year. And it’s not mean. It’s silly to think we can be absolutely certain of anything, especially with the weather being …if I may use an old term….off its rocker.

        And if one person says they were right in hindsight…..please send that individual to me. I’ll box his ears.

        Apparently, I’m channeling my dad today. But then it is his birthday.

      2. I’m Game despite what I said about no snow the rest of the season and you are so right!

        i absolutely LOVED the 3/31-4/1 storm in 1997. Truly epic!
        And it was 64 the day before or at least that is what I remember. I remember people asking me at work how much snow and I showed them my hand at about knee level!!! 🙂

        2. 60s on March 30 with sun though it was quite windy that day. We had an Easter visit at my brother’s house and I remember that well, standing in the driveway with the wind, but it being very warm. March 31 is started raining, and it rained A LOT before we got A LOT of snow that night & the next day. That storm produced over 4 inches of melted precipitation for a lot of this area.

          1. Funny, I don’t remember too much rain.
            I was working in Framingham. I don’t remember
            the exact time it started to rain. I am thinking somewhere between 2 and 4 PM or so.
            I thought I remembered snow mixing in on the way home. I do know for sure, that by the time we finished dinner (7PMish or so) it was snowing hard as I took the dog for a walk. It was really coming down!!!

            Awesome, awesome storm!!!!

  25. I think that when I am about to die the last words that I utter may be “remember April 1st, 1997.” I’m serious. That was just such an incredible storm. As TK said, it was in the 60s on March 30th. I spent some time that day getting spring plants for the garden. Afterwards, we (my family – my then wife and 2 children) drove to Walden Pond to enjoy the spring air, and an old man sitting on the beach said to us “we’re going to get something tomorrow you may never forget … it’s going to be quite the storm.”

    I didn’t sleep at all the night of March 31st. I just had to witness every moment of the storm. The heavy rain, which TK alluded to, had changed to snow by late afternoon/evening in Brookline and then at around 2am the heaviest snow I have ever seen in my life was falling. I could see it accumulating as the heavens just unloaded. The thunder made it even more impressive.

    1. That is a goosebumps story, Joshua. Thank you ❤️

      I took my kids and a couple of others to the barn. I don’t know if school was cancelled or we just kept kids out. They needed to settle their horses before the storm. I vividly remember leaning against the open barn door and just enjoying the feel and smell of an impeding storm mixed with the warm, earthy barn smells. When the first flakes began to fly, I asked the kids to finish up so we could head home. We lost power until maybe Friday.

      1. That’s a great story, Vicki.

        Maybe the horses knew what was about to happen. I think animals have an instinctual sense.

        1. Thank you. I should have added that they did indeed know. Animals have a sense that many humans have lost. Not your man sitting on the bench. That gave me the chills.

  26. And that reminds me. JJ mentioned the thunderstorms on feb 25 2016. I didn’t remember them until I went back to the WHW blog archives. It’s a great read.

  27. Vicki the thunder was loud from those thunderstorms that night and I have not had wind gusts that high since Superstorm Sandy in 2012. The lights flickered a couple times but I never lost power.

  29. Heat did not trip on here once today. To be fair, it is set at 62 but then it’s rarely set higher than 65.

        1. It’s a new house. 62 on first floor Keeps it at 66 on second. Heating is easy. We have southern exposure and no big trees. Cooling isn’t easy. Ac has to set high because it gets hot upstairs.

          Also the heat pump is much more efficient than oil or gas

    1. This has always been one of my favorites from The Cars.

      There was a guy at college that said he watched an ant crawl around on the lyrics on the liner notes of a Cars album. He wrote down the words that the ant touched and it still made as much sense as the original 🙂

    1. That was for the west slopes of the Sierras from NWS Sacramento.

      Even NWS Reno going with 4-8 feet of snow for the eastern Sierra slopes including Palisades Tahoe. And 2-4 feet right down to Lake level.

      If this materializes, would be the largest storm (3 day snow totals) in three years out there.

  33. At least we will not need to worry about “thin cover” when we are out there in mid March. Hoping they get these storms out of the way before we get there. Being out there for a storm like this would be cool to watch but we wouldn’t be getting much skiing in with those conditions.

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