Sunday March 3 2024 Forecast (8:54AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

There are 2 opportunities that I see for brief “bonus sunshine” to occur during the next several days. They are today (midday and afternoon, if enough dry air can flow in behind departing low pressure) and Wednesday with the potential for some clear slots in the dominant cloud cover ahead of a cold front. Otherwise, the sky is going to be cloudy most of the time through the middle of the coming week. Today, as mentioned, low pressure is exiting the region after giving a decent rainfall to the region Saturday afternoon and night. And believe it or not, this rainfall was beneficial, because we’ve been on the drier side of normal 3 out of 5 months from October through February, and abnormally dry conditions were starting to make an appearance. This would put us at risk of re-entering drought if the dry trend continues, so any rainfall is beneficial. And we’ll have other such benefits ahead from not only rainfall, but even some potential frozen stuff becoming involved before this 5-day period is done. But first, we search for elusive breaks of sun this afternoon. Will there be any? The next low pressure lifts northward from off the Mid Atlantic Coast later Monday through Tuesday. While we stay rain-free Monday, we don’t Tuesday, and it should be a wet midday and afternoon across the region, though it may take the rain a little longer to reach southeastern areas – Cape Cod mainly, due to the orientation of the rainfall associated with the low. This system departs later Tuesday night, and we get a briefly warmer push of air into our area thanks to a southwesterly wind ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. It is during the morning and midday hours Wednesday that we have our next shot of sneaking in some sunshine, but again we’ll need a bit of weather luck to pull it off. Eventually, the front moves southward and produces rain showers in the region, and a heavier overcast. This front will not be charging through, just easing through, and on Thursday, low pressure is set to move along it and intensify while passing to our south. This system will bring a cold rain to the region, which may mix with and turn to snow before ending, depending on how much cold air gets involved. At Day 5, this is not a high confidence forecast nor can it be put into much detail, other than saying the greatest chance of frozen precipitation would probably be the further north and west you go, and higher in elevation you are. But even these are not set-in-stone aspects of the threat, just early-look ones, so continue to check upcoming blog posts.

TODAY: Foggy areas through mid morning, and a few patches of drizzle around, otherwise clouds dominate, but may break for sun at times. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Patchy fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible morning. Cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to N late in the day from north to south.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, may mix with or change to snow before ending late. Highs 38-45 early, then slowly falling. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, may be stronger along the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Dry March 8. Potential storm with rain/mix/snow chances March 9-10 weekend. Drier trend after. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

Unsettled weather returns early to mid period followed by dry weather later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

102 thoughts on “Sunday March 3 2024 Forecast (8:54AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    March 3rd and counting… tik tok tic tok.

    I am fine IF there is no more snow this season. Because of that, it is sure to snow.

    2. Yup, we’re tick tocking toward a few threats. 😉
      Luck is gonna run out for the snow haters sooner or later. 😉

        1. I am a snow hater and realize I have been very fortunate in recent years. I know we can have a big storm still but to me the probability of a substantial storm over a large portion of eastern mass in the next 2-3 weeks seems unlikely.

      2. Not guaranteed Tk just like my huge gut feeling tells me no major accumulation. And so it’s not misunderstood I’m going by very strong gut feeling & the way this winter has been that Boston / south will NOT see a big snow event ( flakes in the air , suger coatings do not count as I’m talking SNOW STORM!!!! For the record as I have said I was personally really rooting for big storm while I was off , but I just do not see that happening & I could also be wrong .

  5. Thanks TK
    With the lack of snow this winter hopefully will have a few good thunderstorm days this summer.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    This `winter’ is in tease mode as it’s been for a while. Not only that, this week it’s delivering the absolute worst kind of weather – at least in my book – of 40s, dreary and rain. I tought I left tis all behind when the Donohue’s, O’Leary’s, McGrath’s, Kerry’s, O’Toole’s and I boarded that ship in 1849, bound for the port of Boston. Aye, `t was spittin’ rain that day as we left Cork harbour.

    1. As you may remember, I love this kind of weather. March overcast, a damp chill.

      There’s a special kind of connection I feel to the world when it’s like that. I’ve never been able to explain it. But it’s been around in my head for as long as I can remember ….

      2. I’m envious. I wish I could like this weather.

        The reason I don’t may be due to the fact that I experienced it so often while living in the Netherlands and England. While I did get accustomed to it there, I find it harder to bear here as I know that SNE really does have better weather to offer.

      3. Awesome comment and I understand. I feel that way about weather in general. But like you there are certain periods that touch me more deeply.

  9. My simplistic rain gauge showed 2.5 inches yesterday which seems high. This is not the first it seemed overdone. Were there any other rain amounts in this neighborhood around Natick?

  10. My simplistic rain gauge showed 2.5 inches yesterday which seemed high to me. This has happened before too. Did any one see similar amounts in the Natick area?

    1. That seems a little high, but there were spot amounts of 2.00-2.40 around the region, so it’s not entirely impossible it happened. If it is right, you were the high for the area. Most amounts were in the 1.00 to 2.00 inch range.

      1. Thanks. It is in the garden next to a rhody and rain may flow off a plant leaf and into gauge. I will find another spot.

  12. Did Tonga strike again last night ?

    Models were trying to catch up on the last few runs for last night’s event and I think fell short or well short of what fell ……

    1. It wouldn’t surprise me. It’s been pretty widespread and frequent since that event. While this wasn’t an extreme event, not by a long shot, it was still pretty impressive given the set-up.

  15. Thanks TK.

    Final rain total here yesterday was 1.25″. Hit some heavy rain from Springfield to Hartford on our drive back from VT late yesterday. Fortunately the rain held off while we were skiing for the most part. Just had some light rain after 2PM, which started as wet flakes near the summit.

  16. There’s already a little bit more sun than I anticipated especially over the interior. It also came to my attention on rereading my discussion that I had the wrong high temperature posted there today. It was supposed to be 48-55 not 45-52. I have fixed it.

  21. If you are wondering what a blizzard with 190 mph winds looks and sounds like, check out this footage from the 8200′ cam at Palisades overnight Friday:

    https://x.com/babowling12/status/1763916200386429083?s=20

    Palisades reported another 31″ of snow in the last 24 hours for a storm total thus far of 72″. Another 15-30″ expected by Wednesday with smaller doses each of the next three days.

  22. Some additional sights and sounds of the blizzard from other ski resorts in the Sierra….

    Reed Timmer, PhD
    @ReedTimmerUSA
    17h

    True blizzard conditions near the crest at Mammoth Mountain, California!

    https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/1764079813680078894?s=20

    Sugar Bowl Resort
    @sugarbowlresort
    23h

    20-24″ overnight. We got some digging to do.

    https://x.com/sugarbowlresort/status/1763978405094297957?s=20

    And keep in mind that was 24 hours ago….they have received an ADDITIONAL 35″ since this video was taken are up to 90″ on the storm!

  23. Thanks, TK.

    My opinion. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. It is March 3. Even ‘though the future maps and such don’t look promising for a big snow storm, the weather has been kind of crazy. We could get a blizzard right up to the beginning of May. I think sometime in the 70’s there was a big snowstorm in interior MA. The only thing is that any snow would likely melt fast.

    1. Wise words! Even if next weekend doesnt materializes, the pattern is shifting after about 3/11. Ridging develops in the West (+PNA) which shuts the California storm train off and should give us a more favorable environment for some late season cold shots/snow chances.

    2. Heyyy. Good to see you here. I hope you and your husband are improving

      I remember the May 9 storm. I just cannot ever recall if it was 78 or 77

  24. Very likely that the extreme winds totally messed with the snow totals that Palisades reported Friday night during the peak of the storm. This from Bryan Allegretto, meteorologist who blogs for Palisades:

    The 24-hour SWE (snow water equivalent) increase at the 8k’ sensor was 4″ & precipitation recorded was 2.8″, but the snowfall only measured at 24 inches. That would mean a SLR (snow to liquid ratio) of only 6-8.5:1, while temperatures were between 18-27 deg. With lighter winds, the SLR should have averaged around 16:1 for those temperatures with 24-hour snowfall of around 44-64 inches!

    So the strong winds are greatly diminishing the SLR & snowfall totals. That can happen from the snowflakes crashing together and breaking into much smaller crystals that pile up more densely with less snowfall height, the snow on the ground will blow and break up and compact, and winds can blow some snow off of the measuring areas.

    1. Something to keep in mind :re snow measurements/totals we when get our next blizzard (and yes it is coming…someday).

  25. There is no excuse for the traffic nightmare in a place that had a very well forecast extreme snow event in which it was a no-brainer that travel was going to be virtually impossible during and for a while after the event.

    I find it hard to have sympathy for people who choose to put themselves in a place like that at a time like that.

    I don’t want harm to come to anybody and I certainly hope everybody is okay and learns a lesson they won’t forget.

    1. Yep, and they also put the emergency responders lives at risk when they have to drive up there in those conditions to rescue people.

  26. WxW mentioned this a few weeks ago but it is pretty incredible about the inverse correlation between California weather and the weather in New England during the winter months. Palisades has a snow history section on their website with snow totals by year/month dating back to year 2000. If you look at a few of the epic winters we had in SNE (2012-2013…the Nemo year) and 2014-2015, the snow totals at Palisades are paltry. They did have an epic winter in 2010-2011 (the year we had the 6 week snow blitz focused on January) but all their snow that year came in every month but January when they recorded only 19″ the entire month.

    As I mentioned above, the West coast ridge builds and storm train shuts off around 3/11. This could provide a less hostile environment for us for cold/snow chances for mid-late March, keeping all the late season caveats in mind.

  29. Thanks TK!

    Mark, thanks for all the info on the Sierra storm! As expected, historic in every sense of the word. The decision to keep I-80 open at all, let alone why anyone would actually try to drive over it, is completely baffling…

    I think your ski trip will be in real good shape too Mark. Good thing it wasn’t this week, but definitely looks like a gradual trend drier for the West in the next couple of weeks, possibly coinciding with some late season snow chances in the Northeast by mid month (not that anyone should be getting their hopes too high).

    1. Thank you! Definitely looking like we lucked out. Will be lots of snow on the ground and terrain open along with most likely dry weather, mild temps, and more importantly low winds for the second half of next week.

      Would have been a disaster if we were out there now. Would have been quite the experience but we likely would not have skied at all.

      1. He is feeling much better and will wear a heart monitor for a couple weeks. Thank you for asking.

  34. Spring mode outside. Fairly humid. Daffodils shooting up (though not the flowers). Bugs are flying around everywhere now. Birds pairing up and mating. I overheard several geese talking about the mild winter. One honked, “global warming.” Another defiantly honked “it’s just a strong El Nino.”

    People were out and about in droves. Too many, actually. It’s hard to run when there are so many obstacles on the paths. This included the Frosty ice cream truck. He usually sets up shop beginning in April. But with the warmth and humidity he decided to start his business early. Judging from the line, he made the right decision.

  35. On this day, March 3 1920…

    “Snowball” hail at Topeka KS. About an hour and a half after a strong cold front passed the city, elevated convection produced several “violent peals of thunder” (according to a citizen), followed by 1/2 inch diameter “snowballs” falling heavily enough to cover the ground in 60 seconds. As precipitation continued, it was mixed with freezing rain & snow, and the snowballs froze to trolley wires, hampering the operation of street cars.

    Upon examination, the “snowballs” appeared to have been formed by clumps of wet snowflakes that then froze together in a rough spherical shape. They were as hard as hailstones but lacked the concentric layers present in true hail. So basically, giant graupel fell.

    (Info from Weather Guide 2024)

  36. Thanks, TK!
    Incredible sunset tonight!!!

    1.92″ in the bucket yesterday.

    In MLS soccer last night, Real Salt Lake defeated LAFC, 3-nil, in a blizzard that was delayed three hours, two hours because of high winds and an additional hour because of lightning strikes in the area.

    Highlights:

    https://www.espn.com/soccer/club/_/id/4771/real-salt-lake

    The Celtics won their 11th consecutive game this afternoon versus Golden State, 140-88, an incredible 52-point margin!

  37. Daffodil and tulips are beginning to show their leaves. Peepers are out. Guess what they are saying. 😉

    The south side of our Framingham home had a strip of daffodils . It had a southern exposure so they popped up earlier than other plantings around the house. They always …for a couple of decades….arrived just before or during when we drove to Charleston for April vacation. I always worried they’d pass before we were home. They didnt. I have photos of the daffodil flowers just above the snow level on April 29 1987.

  38. U2 finished their residency last night at The Sphere in Vegas.
    It was their 40th show.

    I was so blessed to see the fourth show back on October 7.

    There were posts about U2 here last week, I think written by Joshua.

    These were my favorite songs and visuals from the five months of shows!

    Zoo Station:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVPS2MBg6Qk

    The Fly (check out the number matrix!!!)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UkofTkL74E

    Beautiful Day (with a mural of the 26 most endangered species in Nevada)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAuyYYDwQJY

  39. Still no crocuses in my backyard. However the snowdrops are still flourishing. Usually those crocuses start showing themselves about now.

    I wonder if they know something we don’t? 😉 ❄️

  40. Thanks TK.

    The Alps have been getting snow pretty much daily and a few big storms mixed in. Feeling blessed.

      1. It’s a real photo but not of this storm. It was posted to X and then eweathee verified it wasn’t is this system. He’s generally very good and not a sensationalist. Others also jumped in and said it wasn’t real for this storm.

    1. That’s about as classic an example of the “problem with media” that I bitch about all the time as you can possibly get.

      Let’s push a video from the other side of the world as something that happened here. Disgusting practice by media, seeing it more and more too. Let’s add things, or leave out details just to push a certain context or narrative. Disgusting.

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