Monday March 4 2024 Forecast (7:27AM)

82 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

Since yesterday many areas broke out into more sunshine than I forecast, I’ll stay optimistic for a while today and go for some breaks of sun too, but clouds will definitely become dominant and eventually overtake all areas as the day goes on as our air flow turns more easterly and low level moisture is added – despite the fact that a weak area of high pressure is in control. Either way, low pressure drifts up our way from the south by tomorrow, and we’ll have an overcast day with eventual rainfall for the region too. This system is somewhat similar to the one we saw come through on Saturday, and will exit the region Tuesday night. This leaves the possibility for a little drying, perhaps enough for some partial sun early Wednesday. This day will find us in a mild air mass, so any sun can boost the temps well beyond 50, maybe toward 60 with enough sun. But that party will end quickly as a cold front drops through the region in the evening and low pressure rides along it from the southwest during Thursday. This will bring another round of rain, and as cold air filters in as the system goes by, the rain may end mixed with snow, or even change to snow before ending in some areas. Right now, my feeling is that this will take place late enough in the precipitation that we won’t need to worry about any accumulations, but at this time of year the “surprise factor” is there, so we should keep an eye on the end of that event. High pressure builds in for Friday, and I feel a little more optimistic about at least some limited sunshine for that day, although it will remain cool.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, but breaks of sun are possible through early afternoon. A few patches of fog and drizzle especially near the coast. Highs 46-53, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle especially east of I-95. Lows 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives midday and afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapers off by late evening. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Patchy fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible morning. Cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 38-45. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, may mix with or change to snow before ending late. Highs 38-45 early, then slowly falling. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, may be stronger along the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partial sun. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

Probable storm with rain/mix/snow chances March 9-10 weekend. Drier trend follows early next week, but additional unsettled weather may be back as early as the middle of next week. Temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

Potential unsettled weather favors early period, followed by a drying trend. Temperatures near to above normal.

82 thoughts on “Monday March 4 2024 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    My one take today ..
    Even after passage of “cold” front, temperatures still remain above average. Interesting.
    Well on our way to a warmer than average March to add to Dec, Jan and Feb.

    1. Agree , sun is shining nice & bright here in Hanover with mild conditions. Already 3/4 with St Patrick’s day approaching quickly.

  7. JP Dave, echoing what you said, it’s clear that nature – both in terms of vegetation and animals – are in full spring mode. I observe this sort of thing very closely. I’d say it’s about 3 weeks earlier than normal. This doesn’t mean it can’t snow this month or get below freezing at night. Both things can certainly occur. But winter (or whatever it is we had during the past 3 months) around here is for all intents and purposes done.

  8. Having the sun shining through both yesterday afternoon and this morning is a pleasant surprise.

  10. For those interested, in the promising cell and gene therapy sector (promising in the sense that these therapies offer the possibility of one-time cures for some diseases), science is far outpacing commercialization. Investor overexuberance several years ago has been subdued by the reality that actually selling these very expensive products is very hard. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/03/04/science-continues-to-outpace-commercialization-of-cell-and-gene-therapies/?sh=69bd279b2400

  15. Well, it’s officially SPRING!

    Logan: 46
    Bedford: 54

    Even has dropped to 47 here from a previous 51!!

    Both with an EAST wind.

    SPRING SEA BREEZE SEASON is upon us!!!!

  17. 56 here. Overnight low was 47. Going on the third day no heat. Yay.

    Peepers are out. Tulips and daffodils are showing leaves earlier than we have seen here. I’d say It is 3-4 weeks early compared to the past decade or so. Compared to 80s through 90s, it’s closer to 6+.

    Fortunately, most all will withstand snow and have quite often.

  18. Hadi, thank you for alerting us to the donner summit video. The exec pushing it should be fired.

    I ran across this a few days ago. I know sensationalism is not close to new when it comes to journalism. It is one reason I am not a fan of Thomas Jefferson. But I didn’t know (and probably should have) it went back this far.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism

  19. 57.7 now. 43.2 DP. My indoor humidifier has humidity in here at 85%. It hasn’t run in two days either

        1. Sort of back to where we started. Despite a relatively dry February the ground is very saturated. You can tell by all the standing water – at least near where I live – on the ground that I observed yesterday. So adding rain to this will cause some more headaches, like in our building.

          1. I Observed the water levels in the Charles River in Needham yesterday to be surprisingly quite low.
            However, there was evidence that previous water levels were quite high but had recently receded.

              1. One of my favorite places to fish in the Spring only.

                however, actually the fishing is best when the water level is high. 🙂

  24. Thanks TK.

    As Tom’s posts have been alluding to, the upcoming rain event has the potential to be quite significant. These small but moisture-rich lows with subtropical connections can be very efficient rain producers. Even some indications of an upper level jet type of structure that you’d find in a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) type scenario. Not going to be a “historic” event by any means, but I’d expect a widespread 2-3”+ of rainfall by the end of this week, more if a true PRE-type band can set up and also if more wrap-around type precip comes into play on the back end of the system.

    In a “normal” year with snowpack present, there would likely be significant flooding concerns. In this case, flooding issues will probably be more nuisance-level overall, but non-zero.

    1. Would you say Boston’s chances for accumulating snow Wx for Boston only are getting slimmer & slimmer , yes I know it can snow in May I get that lol . I say they absolutely are .

    2. Thank you very much, WxW. I’ll share this with my son who has been plagued with basement flooding all winter….as have many others here.

  25. They’re low, I don’t see any real chance for it through 3/15 at least. The “big picture” pattern beyond 3/15 may actually turn very favorable for New England snow. But by that late in the year, the interior is heavily favored for snow over the coast. I’d put it this way:

    Odds of another 3”+ snowstorm in Boston: 25%
    Odds of another 3”+ snowstorm in Worcester and points north and west: 75+%.

    The other thing about any coastal snow after 3/15 is that no matter how much it is, it won’t stick around long. Days too long, sun too high.

    1. Excellent response & thank you . I have said here I think Boston / south is done for any meaningful snow accumulation but I’m only going by strong gut feeling , I do anticipate probably something meaningful North & west as you have stated above .

      1. I wish I could forecast the weather on gut feeling only. That would save me a ton of time. 😉

        1. From me…..I thank you for the tremendous amount of time and effort you put in daily….hourly…..minute to minute……both daily write ups and answering questions.

        2. You have the experience Tk not I . I totally mean no disrespect but it is in my opinion that we are done & I’m not the only one thinking that . I have said it many times I indeed want a big plowable snow event but in my opinion it’s getting less & less likely that will happen Boston /south . I do think further North & west we may see something possibly. There is no scientific backing on me saying I don’t think it’s going to snow this month & no scientific backing that it will , it’s a 50/50 I guess . For the folks who want the snow these winters have sucked for the lack of , and for the folks who depend on the income it generates for them , that sucks too . In my opinion the winters are just getting warmer & warmer with less snow .

          1. I know you have a lot going on in your life. And I get that you don’t think it will snow and have not all winter. Based on gut. I think what you might not understand is in addition to TKs unquestionable knowledge many of us here truly enjoy tracking potentials….even if they don’t materialize. If you don’t mind….can you please pop our bubbles a bit more quietly. Please

            1. Absolutely not . Others here think it won’t snow either . Why is it that when I say it & give my opinion I get grief . It’s a weather blog & I respect everyone’s opinion . If I want to say I have a hunch or a gut I most certainly will & I should be able to as I’m not disrespectful to anyone, nor would I be . Freedom of speech !!!

              1. There is a difference. I tried. Others have tried. You just won’t want to see it Have a good night SSK.

      2. I think I’d add that Boston’s been “done for any meaningful snow accumulation” for a very long time: About 745 days and counting. Last winter and this winter we’ve had to scrape and claw to even get to around 10 inches in aggregate.

        It’s been an incredible snow drought. It’s hard to overstate it. It’s like going 0 for 40 as a hitter in baseball.

        Of course, all of this could change in late March. But I definitely do not expect it too. If anything, I expect spring to be in full swing by then, with occasional colder nights but no sub-freezing days and no meaningful snow.

        Could it snow in a meaningful way next winter in Boston? Well, surely one would think so. But, we’ll just have to wait and see.

        1. It could still snow meaningfully THIS season. Most of our big later-season events were never seen that far ahead on guidance, regardless of the pattern. One exception was Superstorm 1993. That was seen pretty far in advance by guidance.

          And this snow drought is only 2 years and change old. The one from 1978 to 1981 was more impressive. Boston had a 36 inch snow month just 2 winters ago. We’re only talking about one full winter (last year) and one 75% done winter (this year) so far. I don’t think that’s all that impressive based on what I’ve seen in the past.

  26. March and April tend to feature prolonged tranquil spells across England and the low countries. Obviously, this doesn’t happen every year. But I recall it happening frequently. Spring really is their best season. This UK forecast is quite typical for early March as things finally dry out, less wind, temps in the low to mid 50s during the day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjjptPN6Nb4

  27. TK, I beg to differ and I do so respectfully. Not so much on the chance of snow later this month. It’s certainly possible. Even though I don’t expect it I also mentioned it above.

    But on the snow slump, in my 59 years of being on this earth I’ve never witnessed a snow drought like this in and around Boston. Granted, I wasn’t here for around 15 winters, but was in touch with my family and knew what was going on during that period.

    The 745 days without a snow event over 3.6 inches is a record. And I think this particular record is REALLY impressive, Frankly, it’s quite an achievement. I mentioned the 0 for 40 for a hitter as a metaphor. You kind of have to have everything go wrong as a professional hitter to go 0 for 40. It seems that something similar has happened in Boston since early 2022.

    What’s more, in my opinion the past 2 years have been very different from the period you cited from late 1978 to early 1981. I was here then. Yes, we didn’t have much snow, though we had more than we’ve had recently and we did NOT have the record number of days I cited above. But during the late 1978 to early 1981 stretch there were definitely real stretches of winter cold. I remember them well. And I mean sustained periods, not glancing `blows’ or an Arctic push that comes and goes in an instant, a la early February 2023. I experienced actual winter periodically during the late 1978 to early 1981 stretch. I haven’t experienced any winter to speak of since early 2022. I’m not alone. I speak to folks all the time who say the same thing: Essentially no winter coats for 2 straight years. That’s really unusual.

    1. But I was talking about snowfall, not temps.

      That snow drought when you take all the #’s into account was longer and more impressive than the shorter-lived one (so far) we’re in now.

      I never said we didn’t have mild weather. There’s a difference between total snowfall and average temperature. Two entirely different things, in fact. And they are not always directly related. We’ve had plenty of cold/dry winters and mild/snowy winters.

      But in terms of the snowfall, we’re very early on in the current snow drought for Boston, in comparison to other ones. So far, it’s shorter duration.

      And even just last winter when you go inland just a handful of miles, from 495 west and north, snowfall was ABOVE normal last year. This is fairly localized to Boston & coastal southern New England, which actually makes sense when you take all the large scale indices into account.

      Note: When talking to other people, be on the lookout for recency bias. It’s a HUGE factor in what people say. Psychology has proven this as fact. That said, I will agree that this particular stretch of mild, lack-of-snow weather for Boston is notable. Especially this winter (so far, and I stress, SO FAR), and last winter. The winter before does not qualify because of a blockbuster snowstorm.

      Boston saw no major snowstorms in the winter of 1978-79, 1979-1980, and 1980-81. Yes, it was cold, but regarding snowfall, that’s irrelevant. And they had a similar stretch in the winters of 1984-85 and 1985-86. 5 out of 8 winters without a major snowstorm for the city. THAT is impressive. So far we’ve had one, and we’re 3/4 of the way through a second. That’s not impressive.

      1. It just couldn’t snow inside 128. We had forecast ‘s for 6-12″, 12 or more etc, but when it was game time it was close but no cigar. It seems we missed 2’ + just by 1 or 2deg temp on the coastal plain. Does that sound right ??

        1. We missed all but the January 7 storm in sutton. And even in SE, we had 7 inches and a handful of miles to our N in the same town had a foot. I am still holding out for one more

        2. Yes it does.

          Also a note to Joshua. Just letting you know I’m not trying to devalue or invalidate your thoughts. I just felt the need to add a different perspective. I do get that cold plays a big part in your satisfaction of the weather too.

          So we might not see eye to eye on the snow drought, but it’s fine.

  29. TK, you never devalue or invalidate anyone on this blog. I VERY MUCH appreciate your forecasts, perspectives and explanations.

  30. Check out this video of a tanker ship in the middle of storm in the Atlantic. I presume it’s the Northern Atlantic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=856HPcGWGr4

    In the 80s I almost went on a tanker ship from Rotterdam to New York. They needed workers – though I’m not sure what I would have been doing – and offered free passage across the Atlantic, free accommodation, free food and some hourly wages (though as I recall it wasn’t all that much). In the end, I decided against it in part because of the Atlantic storms.

  33. Thanks TK.

    Some impressive final 4-day snow totals from the Sierras. Look at those totals from Sugar Bowl!! Saturday and Sunday really overperformed with 2-3 feet of snow being recorded EACH DAY at many of the ski areas, aided by the fact that it was a very light and powdery snow. Peak of the storm was Friday but the high winds cut into the snow totals a bit, at least a Palisades where the winds were most extreme. 96″ there for a 4-day storm total as Dave posted above….

    Tahoe Daily Snow
    @TahoeWeather
    10h

    Definitely not a bust of a storm, especially against our final forecast from Thursday morning. We picked up the 3-6 feet at lake level & 5-9+ feet on the mountains! Highest totals NW of the lake with less farther south. These are preliminary reported totals, we’ll confirm today.

    https://x.com/TahoeWeather/status/1764671777098367322?s=20

  34. Some amazing aerial footage of roads and homes buried in the Donner Pass area…

    WeatherNation
    @WeatherNation
    12h

    The snow keeps falling in the Sierra Nevada of California, with homes buried under intense snowdrifts. Over 80″ (that is 7 feet) of snow have fallen since Friday and keep falling this morning!

    I-80 remains CLOSED from just west of Reno to the foothills until further notice.

    https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1764650414186561760?s=20

  38. Well, our artificial intelligence friends say winter isnt over in the East 🙂

    Mike Thomas
    @MikeTFox5
    3h

    Do you trust AI?

    FourCastNet…short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network…uses machine learning to predict atmospheric dynamics and produce a weather forecast.

    It’s predicting a MAJOR -NAO block and subsequent cold outbreak in the east in Mid-March.

    Let’s see how it does!

    https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1764792081053065423?s=20

      1. I really believe that at some point AI will no longer need the human race and therefore totally eliminate all of us. AI could decide to automatically launch every nuclear weapon on earth, for instance.

  39. Boston’s “snow drought” years 1978-1981:

    1978-79 = 27.5”
    1979-80 = 12.7”
    1980-81 = 22.3”

    1. No storms of 6+ during those 3 winters.

      Stories in the newspaper about winter being a thing of the past, remember when it used to snow, why doesn’t it snow anymore, etc.

      I have one of them saved that my brother clipped from the newspaper. Others are available online. The media had classic recency bias, even then. “Oh we’ve had below normal snow for 3 winters, so this must be the new normal”. That’s not how it works. 😉 But that lesson is never learned for some bizarre reason.

      Then came the 1981-1982 winter. Not a blockbuster winter by any stretch, but there were 3 big storms. The book-ends of December 5-6 and April 6, with one in between (mid January) that were all over 6 inches for Boston.

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