Wednesday March 6 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)

110 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

There’s plenty of wet weather in this 5-day forecast. Here’s how it unfolds. A cold front drifts across the region today from northwest to southeast, and we start out with mild air ahead of it, then turn gradually colder. At the same time, low pressure heads our way from the Mid Atlantic, and hooks up with the front, moving southeast of our region tonight and to our east later Thursday. This set-up will squeeze out a decent rainfall for our region, on the order of 1 to 3 inches. While the bulk of that rainfall will occur during tonight, the event does stretch over about 24 hours, with the first raindrops around dusk today and the final raindrops later in the day Thursday, especially in southeastern areas where it lingers longer, and may even mix with a few wet snowflakes (southeastern MA) before ending. Watch for flooding issues in prone areas from this upcoming event. We get a break on Friday as a sliver of high pressure brings us dry weather, even some sun. But for our weekend, it looks like other than some potential first-thing-in-the-morning sun on Saturday, it’s to be a cloudy one, and another slug of rain comes from our next storm system Saturday night into Sunday. This one will deliver a shot of chilly air with gusty wind as it leaves the region later Sunday, and there may even be some snow showers Sunday night, a reminder that while we haven’t had much of a “winter”, that the season is still technically with us.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog morning. Rain arrives near day’s end. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, S 5-15 MPH midday on.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain, heavy at times. Lows 38-45. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH but variable along the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Steadiest rain early to mid morning tapering to occasional light rain/drizzle late morning on. Temperatures steady 38-45 except rising to 45-52 RI and southeastern MA briefly before cooling again. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except variable to SW for a brief time Cape Cod / Islands before shifting back to NE 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with lingering rain that may end mixed with snow southeastern MA. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially eastern coastal areas in the evening.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Partial sun, then cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog during the morning. Rain ends midday followed by breaking clouds and maybe a passing rain shower afternoon. Chance of rain and/or snow showers evening and night. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming W 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH during the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

Behind low pressure comes a gusty wind, chilly air, and potentially a few snow showers March 11. Watch for a quick-moving system with a precipitation threat March 13, otherwise somewhat drier pattern next week. Coolest weather March 12, but overall temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Pattern as we head through the final days of winter and welcome spring (vernal equinox March 19) looks active with variable temperatures including a couple precipitation events that may include frozen or mixed.

110 thoughts on “Wednesday March 6 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  1. TK.Good morning and thank you

    I swear I saw fresh blades of green grass in my yard yesterday! Spring has sprung!

    yeah, I know it is still Winter, but until it acts like Winter, it is Spring to me.

  3. Thanks TK. Hoping to grill outside Saturday evening. Any chance that works or will I need swim fins?

      1. Looks pretty potent. WILL it over achieve expected rainfall amounts???? That is the question.

        1. Yes

          QPF stands for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

          What is a quantitative precipitation forecast?
          Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) | Drought.gov
          Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, or QPFs, depict the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall in a defined period of time. In the case of snow or ice, QPF represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted.

          1. Thanks. Then the amounts shown are encouraging given other reports of 4-5. Is there a model that is more reliable than the others?

  17. While it will rain for a while, the magic hour appears to be a couple hrs either side of 6z tonight. So, perhaps in the 12-4am window.

    All the models have tremendous vertical velocities pushing through at 850 and 700 mb. This is when the heaviest band of rain, those 1-2 inch per hour bands could occur.

    The bullseye areas will be determined by how wide this band is, obviously what areas it hits and if its set up in a way that aligns with the 500 mb flow to allow for training.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850hvv&rh=2024030600&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024030600&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  19. What a great day so far . Filtered sun & warm temperature, loving this time of year . Not looking forward to all the rain later .

  21. Well, this week has featured much more sun than I anticipated. I know a lot of rain is in the forecast. But at least we’ve seen the sun, certainly on Sunday and Monday and now this morning.

  22. I’m getting too old and tired to even be interested in politics or discussions about practically any topic, such as climate change. Nuanced, centrist views on these issues are, to put it in German terms, verboten. And to the media such views are boring, which means fewer clicks and less interest. That’s sad, in my view. I believe we’re missing opportunities to be reflective, to listen, to compromise, to no longer engage in trench warfare.

    Politically I never had a problem with Synema (Arizona) or Manchin (West Virginia). Disagreed with them. Yes. But a problem with them? No. I like centrist views that challenge people to come out from their trenches on both sides of the dividing line, Such views can be center-right or center-left, by the way.

    Alas, we’ve come to a moment in our history that we’re pitted against each other. There isn’t even a striving for commonality.

    For the GOP in Massachusetts, the Brooke, Weld, Sargent, Romney, Baker days are over, despite all these leaders getting a lot done for the state, and doing as working across the aisle and not as bitter enemies. None of them were full of bombast or overblown rhetoric. They sought commonality in a blue state.

    Good lord that viewpoint is gone now. Quite depressing.

    1. Very depressing. The politicians you mentioned were
      all Republicans. All decent human beings, even if I didn’t
      agree with their positions on certain subjects. Crap, I even voted for Ed Brooke, the ONLY time in my entire life
      I voted for a republican. btw, you could have added
      Eliot Richardson as well.

      But now, that kind of republican is virtually extinct, replaced
      my maga/facist republicans that have no regard for anyone or anything. I just don’t understand it! And if their leader gets in again, this country is DOOMED!!!

      Crap, I’d prefer Richard Nixon over this Orange Menace!!!

      2. Adding, JPD and Joshua, I can trace the downfall of the true Republican Party. Heck I was steeped in it to the point I belonged to the young woman’s Republican club in high school.

  23. Great comment. I’ve always felt the same.

    I admired and worked in the background for the MA folks you named in from that era. My car has sported a license tag from Sargents term for decades now. Every governor has a series of plates issued with his initial. My dad was given the reverse of mine. I honestly cannot recall a politician in my lifetime that I’ve admired as much as Ed Brooke. He became a friend during the time my mom campaigned for him. I had some fascinating discussions with him. Not that it means anything except to me but there was not a person my mom campaigned for who lost. And all were republicans in a blue state. And I’d bet my bottom dollar those that you listed would sit left of center now.

    Full disclosure. I also campaigned actively for Nixon. And as was the case with those who did the same, we called for him to step down. That to me speaks more about where we are now than anything

  24. Tom,

    Family-Staff conferences tonight from 5:30-7:30 and then back to school tomorrow morning at 6:30. I hope your forecast of overnight/very early morning, heavy rains comes true. At least, I won’t be on the roads during the worst of it.

    If I am reading the HRRR model correctly (and I am never sure if I am), I believe total rainfall from yesterday’s run to this morning’s is cut in half for our area, from 4+ to 2+”. Hopefully, that will be true.

    Thinking of you, North!

    1. Be safe. Also …and my short term memory is struggling ….i seem to recall you mentioned the Daytona a weekish ago, Captain. I meant to watch and then forgot. I just leaned your 24 car won. And if I heard correctly, it was really close

      1. Indeed! It was William Byron who donated one his cars to my buddy’s foundation who gives “Make-A-Wish”-type experiences to families dealing with Stage-4 cancer.

        https://www.jajf.org/

        1. Oh my. I have an even more important reason to follow him than thar I am a fan of the 24 car.

      1. I have to read. I sent it to my son as a temporary idea until they can find a permanent solution.

      2. It says it can be reused 1-3 times. It gets surprisingly good reviews. This is one

        Ryan Burnie
        5.0 out of 5 starsVerified Purchase
        It actually works
        Reviewed in Canada on January 4, 2020
        We had water coming in our house, and quite a bit. Every 12 hours I was wringing out towels. Once I saw these I thought I better give it a try. I can go about 2 or 3 days now without having to do much. For anyone with a leaky foundation it is definitely a good temporary fix. We will be getting a more permanent fix soon, but until then these have been a huge help. I definitely recommend these. Also I saw this in another review, but put them on final spin cycle in your washer to wring the water out. It dries them out really fast, and you can put them right back down to soak up more water. Just don’t ever fully wash or dry them obviously. Great product.

  27. Going back to the Flovent discussion. Joshua, I understand the Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement is a major factor, but another factor is increased government regulations to the manufacturing process and raw materials being used for drug substance. This has been steadily increasing the cost to manufacture and cutting into profits. Not making excuses for companies, but it is driving cost increases, right or wrong.

  29. Are precipitation totals coming down a bit? Captain mentioned the HRRR model and latest channel 5 forecast is under 2 inches for much of eastern mass.

  30. Thank you for your very interesting post, Vicki.

    I know that this isn’t the place for politics. I promise to keep it to a minimum and to not include any vitriol.

    The only thing more I have to say is I wish we had a place for conciliatory politics. I’m a believer in getting things done AND to that end we always must compromise (as the Dutch say, “water in the wine” and I’m translating literally).

    I think this also applies to climate change. There are many prudent ways people can be better stewards of the earth to reduce pollution and greenhouse gases, EVEN if some don’t believe in climate change or humans’ role in it. The people Vicki mentioned – and this includes Nixon! – worked with environmentalists and others to establish entities like the EPA. This is unthinkable today. And that’s not good. For reference, this is from the Nixon Library. https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/news/president-and-planet-richard-nixon-and-environment-outdoor-exhibition

    I never view things in black or white terms, loyal or disloyal. I think the vast majority of problems we face as a nation, including the climate, have a large gray area in which operate and in which we can all work together. But it won’t happen when we’re engaged in trench warfare.

    1. I agree with every word. As an off comment, it has been my sincere wish for a while that our president could be what was a true Republican…..a baker or Brooke or most all you mentioned.

      1. Jordan Poyer got cut, but I think Sean McDermott is still employed.

        Unless the GFS tweeted about the Buffalo coach, but I wouldn’t trust it.

          1. Very funny Ace , wife had it flash on her phone before appointment but she must have saw it wrong which does not surprise me , sorry

          2. A perfect example of why I wish people would post links ….well, I meant with weather but seems it is best for everything

      1. Now it has filled in and snowing. Prior to that the coulds
        were rolling UP the slopes. 🙂

  33. While on the subject of links. I would be very happy to put together device specific steps to copying and pasting a link. Just let me know which device you use

  34. I remain unconcerned (maybe even less so now) about having to do a walk of shame out here in Holden for 3″ or more in an event the rest of the season.

    1. I tend to agree with you. 🙂
      We shall see. The only negative vibe I get is that
      I want to start fishing soon and thus it is destined to SNOW!!!

        1. I’m more nervous about a potential asteroid hit than that LOL.

          That map will wash away like most do.

          (I’m really talking s**T now lol. Good thing I know y’all by now)

          1. No it is definitely in fun. I like that you gave us something to watch for. There isn’t a whole lot else weatherwise.

    4. Retrac I have a calendar reminder dedicated to you and a special #retrac in my iPad notes. The reminder is set for April 29 which is my younger brother’s birthday. He was a great prankster so I thought it fitting.

      Thanks for the fun.

    1. Son and you seem to be consistently in the same rain zone. Fingers crossed for you both and everyone else who has struggled with flooding this winter

      1. Someone else can have the bullseye tonight, lol. September flooding in our town too, in addition to Dec and Jan. September was the same weekend as Leominster.

  39. JP Dave, do you ever do magnet fishing? As you probably know, Needham area fishermen are finding some very interesting military ordinance and weapons in the Charles river. I know that you fish fairly close to that spot.

  42. It looks like a general 1.00-2.00 for rainfall in much of the region with spotty 2.00+ amounts, per NWS, pretty much falling into the WHW predicted range for this event.

    Short range guidance doomsday amounts of 4+ seem to have been in error, which is good news.

    Updating now, will post soon…

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