Thursday March 7 2024 Forecast (7:28AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

Low pressure southeast of the region will start to pull away as today progresses, but there will still be some rain around this morning and midday, with a drying trend from west to east getting underway from late morning on, so that Cape Cod is the last to see the rain come to an end this afternoon. As the low pressure area organizes and intensifies upon departure, we’ll see a strengthening northerly wind behind the system. Eventually, enough dry air will get in so that the low level moisture departs, as above the storm’s thicker and more extensive cloud deck departs. A sliver of high pressure approaches and moves into the region on Friday, and this will provide a good deal of sunshine for much of the region. The exception will be Cape Cod, and at times maybe parts of the MA South Shore, as the high’s axis being to the west, with low pressure still to the east, creates a north northeast wind off the water and pushes some ocean-effect clouds over those areas – most extensively across Cape Cod where sun may remain unseen or at least limited. As our next low pressure area starts to approach the region, the surface wind will turn more easterly as we head into Saturday, pushing the lower cloud deck back to the west and expanding it northward as well, so we may see that overtake the sky as a higher to mid level cloud deck from the approaching low moves in and thickens up. Other than the potential for a patch of drizzle in southeastern MA Saturday afternoon, I expect rain-free conditions through the daylight hours Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday morning, low pressure will move across the Northeast, with a parent low moving northwest of our region, and a redevelopment taking place right over southern New England Sunday morning. This will be a rain event for the region with the exception of a brief period of wet snow or mixed wet snow and rain in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH Saturday evening. A quick enough evolution of low pressure Sunday morning can pull enough cold air back in to result in a mix at the end of the rainfall in similar locations. The balance of Sunday should feature lots of clouds, but drying conditions, along with a gusty westerly wind behind the departing low pressure area. Monday looks like a blustery and chilly day with a few passing sprinkles of rain or flurries of snow, as a strong area of low pressure lingers to our east.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog through midday. Rain and drizzle through midday – drying trend west to east with rain lingering longest Cape Cod. Temperatures steady 38-45 except rising to 45-52 RI and southeastern MA briefly before cooling again. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except variable to SW for a brief time Cape Cod / Islands before shifting to NNE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening. Clearing overnight except clouds remaining MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Lows 32-39. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially eastern coastal areas in the evening.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny except partly sunny MA South Shore and mostly cloudy Cape Cod. Highs 42-49. Wind NNE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then variable before becoming E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partial sun possible especially north and west of Boston early, otherwise cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, which may begin mixed with wet snow higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog during the morning. Rain ends midday followed by breaking but still abundant clouds in the afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, becoming W 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

Dry weather March 12. Quick-passing system may produce rain/snow showers later March 13. Dry weather March 14. Next threat of unsettled weather comes late March 15 into March 16. Temperatures near to below normal March 12, near normal midweek, above normal late week.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-21)

Pattern as we head through the final days of winter and welcome spring (vernal equinox March 19) looks active with variable temperatures including a couple precipitation events that may include frozen or mixed.

88 thoughts on “Thursday March 7 2024 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So far, it looks like Logan has picked up 1.32 inches of rain.

  2. Thanks TK !

    Glad things were progressive in this system.

    Looking at obs, 80-90% of total rainfall seemed to fall in 3-4 hrs.

    1. Agreed. 1.4 here. The heaviest for me was 10-2. Between 12-2 it was on and off torrential but it was moving, which was a good thing!

      Vicki how did your son do?

  3. Hadi,

    To answerr your questions from the previous blog.

    Yes I have fished at that exact location on the Needham/Newton line many tines. Pretty productive areaa that has yielded several nice sized large mouth bass in addition to other assorted goodies.

    No, I have never tossed a magnet before. I find that to be pretty creepy. I can imagine what could be hauled up, especially near bridges.

      1. Wow. I was going to repost the second item pulled from there yesterday but you have seen it. Now I’m really curious where these came from and is there more. I wonder if they will send a dive team.

        2. On the left side of that bridge is Newton and on the right side is Needham. I actually fished from the Newton side, although one time I did fish over on the Needham side. 🙂

  6. Thanks TK.

    Good dose of rain here last night in Coventry. 2.35” so far in the rain gauge and still raining moderately.

    Up to 3.6” now for the first 7 days of March and just under 13” on 2024. And that is with an overall dry February in the middle!

    2. It started in CT earlier and sat there for a while earlier in the evening. No Charlie hole at your house!

      1. And seemed to draw a C around your area for a while, North, keeping you out of the action. Thankfully

    1. HaHa! Thanks Vicki. 😀

      My crocuses still haven’t come up yet although the stems are starting to show. Maybe they know something (snow) is coming eventually. 🙂

      In previous years they are usually up and showing by now.

      1. Wow. Ans mine are at least a month early. So odd. Could fhe excess rain have destroyed the bulbs?

      1. I should have said this was a tweet from last night. Sure worked in favor of those who have seen flood this winter.

  13. Up to 1.56″ here at the StormHQ World Headquarters compound

    TK – one thing for you, and it’s something that was pointed out to me by a co-worker (and former co-worker of yours). The normals rise really quick at this time of year, and for the most part, low temperatures have been above normal for a while now. At this point, the normal high is in the mid 40s, and normal lows are in the middle to upper 20s. So even “cool” days recently, with highs in the lower/mid 40s, have been offset by lows only dropping to the mid/upper 20s, so they still end up above normal.

  14. Couple of observations:

    1. Others had mentioned that river levels were lower. I’ve observed this, too. At the same time, the ground appears to be saturated, suggesting water table levels are high. Before the most recent rain deluge (about 1.6 inches where I live), I ran my usual 6 mile loop and noticed LOTS of standing water on sandy and asphalt paths and some on grass surfaces. This suggests saturation.

    2. Numerous signs of (very) early spring. They began appearing 10 days ago, but now it’s visible everywhere in wildlife and vegetation. Grass is beginning to grow, which is very early. Never really got brown to begin with (nor did it last summer with all the rain). Keep in mind, this is in Boston, which has been considerably warmer than inland spots throughout the winter nights. I counted 10 nights (in total! – two got to just below 20F so they barely count) that got into the teens here all winter. That figure is likely higher practically anywhere besides the South Coast and Boston.

    While I like a rebirth or renaissance in spring, it’s when it never really got dormant in the first place that it bothers me.

    2. The other thing about spring I’m not fond of are the colors. With the exception of light green leaves (which I think are wonderful, however ephemeral) I don’t care for the white and pink. Everyone is different. Many love white and pink flowers. For some reason, I don’t. There must be a psychological reason for my strong preference for the deeper autumn colors.

  16. Thanks TK!

    With the way this winter has gone it’s almost taboo to even think about cold air in the East. But I think it’s becoming apparent that there are significant cold weather risks (relative to normal of course) on the table as we head towards about 3/18 and beyond.

    Most significantly, this would have big implications for Eastern US agricultural interests (especially south of New England) given the extreme early start to the growing season, which will only accelerate the next 10 days. Beyond that aspect, I would say the odds of significant late season snow in at least portions of New England are increasing.

    The MJO is unfavorable, and that’s a concern with the colder pattern, because the MJO seems to have overridden a lot of other signals this year. On the flip side, if we do get a colder pattern despite the unfavorable MJO, then it’s possible the colder pattern could extend for longer, maybe well into April, if the MJO does become more supportive for cold weather later on…

    1. Wouldn’t that be something if I leave for England for a 10 day trip in late March and it snows here while I’m away.

      Long-term projection for London, by the way, looks favorable for my visit there. Obviously don’t want to jinx it but it may actually turn out to be a mostly dry and pleasant stay weather-wise.

      1. Joshua, Would you be willing to postpone your trip a week or so just to be sure you don’t miss a late snow event? You never know. TK doesn’t seem to have totally given up, at least that’s the vibe I get in his daily discussions here.

        I’m keeping my shovel and ice melt right where it is!

  18. If these recent rain events were 10-15 degrees colder, we might have put 2015 to shame. Oh well.

    1. This would have been a great winter for snow lovers if that happened. The storm last weekend of January perfect snow track that would have produced 5-10 inches of snow. No cold air to be found and not a strong enough storm to manufacture cold air.

  24. Just remember though …… I feel like we saw all these similar texts in mid January for later January and into February and as we all know now, except for 1 week in January and that 1 storm in February that missed Boston, the cold and snow never happened.

    2. It’s why I have been hesitant to post a lot about it but the signal is growing for the second half of the month and it has been a consistent signal, at least with respect to a sustained western US ridge developing from mid month on (which I have been watching closely the past few weeks with our upcoming trip to CA).

      I think the pattern upcoming should at least give us a few chances but there are certainly things that could wrong as in the pattern could turn out cool but relatively dry, and of course basic climo/late season sun angle (especially along the coastal plain)

  25. 1978-79 = 27.5”
    1979-80 = 12.7”
    1980-81 = 22.3”

    2022-23 = 12.4”
    2023-24 = 9.7” (TBD)
    2024-25 = ????????

      1. We’ll see what happens over the next 4 to 5 weeks, then it shall be revealed. 🙂

  28. Philip, good question on postponing my trip.

    I am such an avid winter (cold and snow) person that I decline invitations to, say, Florida conferences in winter. Yes, I’m that insane.

    But given that this England visit isn’t business-related (though I will be working from my home away from home) and involves seeing my daughter who I haven’t seen since early November, I won’t postpone it.

  29. Ok. It is a given. Expect snow march 20. I just scheduled cataract surgery and there is a $300 fee for cancellation day of …except for medical of course.

      1. But your appointment is the following week lol . Third week off so my dates are off

  30. Thanks TK

    Heading out this evening to France. Weather has been fantastic. Super lucky as they have gotten several feet in the last few weeks.

  32. Back to reality as I return from Naples, Florida where it was warmer but not much drier. Quite a strip of rain along the South Coast this evening with the wind blowing. Car was fighting the wind over the Braga bridge in Fall River

  33. B’s 2-0 in the 2nd. 1st goal by Pasta in a 5 on 3 situation. 2nd goal by Frederick on a breakaway.

    Leafs now with 1 man advantage for next 4 minutes. Ugh!!

  34. Hey late night / early morning readers!

    I got zapped with a migraine earlier (I’m in the midst of a cluster series) which put me out for a while. Watched the rest of the Bruins game on DVR. That was pleasing.

    Rain recap. Looks like the 1 to 3 inch rainfall forecast verified. Pleased with that. Flooding was mostly a minor deal which is good news in general. I don’t think the Saturday night / early Sunday event will be quite as heavy, maybe more like a 0.75 to 1.50 inch event with locally 2 inch amounts possible.

    I’ll comment more on the upcoming pattern soon…

    2. Glad you’re feeling better TK! 🙂

      Hopefully the “upcoming pattern” will eventually lead to our one and only widespread snow event of the 2023-24 winter/early spring season. ❄️ 🙂

      We’ve certainly had plenty of widespread RAIN events. No forecast hiccups in that department so far. 🙁

      1. There have been forecast “hiccups” with rain events too. Several of them have failed to materialize.

        There is no discernible miss differential with snow vs. rain.

  36. Ugh. So sorry to hear this TK. Please don’t hurry under. I Hope you are feeling better this am. My youngest who gets frequent migraines and I mentioned a couple of days ago that migraines (her) and headaches ( me) often appear at the start and during weather systems. I seem to have outgrown migraines but had a nasty headache Wednesday. Daughter had migraine

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