DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)
A small area of high pressure centered just to our west provides much of the region a sunny day today. The exception will be Cape Cod where lower “ocean effect” clouds will stream in from the north northeast, limiting the sun there. These may temporarily depart later today to allow more sun there, but by the end of the day we’ll already start to see some high clouds increasing from the west in advance of our next storm in this active pattern. These clouds will start to thicken up overnight and as surface winds turn more easterly, lower clouds from the ocean will move inland. Consider yourself lucky if you get to see any sunshine first thing Saturday morning, otherwise we’re destined for a cloudy day. But it will stay rain-free during the daylight hours as the band of rain from the storm will not have arrived yet. This happens in the evening, from southwest to northeast across the region. The low pressure center responsible for this band of rain, which will take about 12 hours to move through the region, will be a slightly elongated low from Upstate NY to our area, redeveloping as it goes along so that one main center takes over in the Gulf of Maine later Sunday. Coastal areas prone to flooding will likely see some during the high tide on Sunday. While the band of rain exits our region from southwest to northeast during Sunday morning, and we may get a few breaks of sun due to sinking air off the hills and mountains to our west as the wind shifts to westerly behind the storm, we’ll still be impacted by this low pressure circulation with lots of clouds through Monday. Eventually, the combination of wrap-around moisture and colder air likely causes occasional snow and mixed rain/snow showers for our region late Sunday night and especially during Monday. High pressure approaches from the west Tuesday, but while we see plenty of sun we keep an active breeze going between this high and low pressure which still spins to our east and northeast.
TODAY: Lots of clouds mainly south of Plymouth MA and sun elsewhere. High clouds arrive late-day. Highs 42-49. Wind NNE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast.
TONIGHT: High clouds increase from the southwest, lower clouds move in off the ocean. Lows 29-36. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E overnight.
SATURDAY: A glimpse of sun possible early, otherwise cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, which may begin briefly mixed with wet snow higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 35-42 early, followed by a slow temperature rise. Wind SE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Overcast start with areas of fog while rain ends southwest to northeast. Fog dissipates, clouds break for partial sun at times midday but remain dominant through afternoon. Highs 48-55 by midday, then a slow temperature fall during the afternoon. Wind SE to variable 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, briefly diminishing then shifting to W and re-increasing to 15-25 MPH with additional higher gusts afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers of snow or mixed rain/snow likely. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)
Disturbance may produce a rain or snow shower late March 13. Additional unsettled weather window March 15-16. St. Pat’s Day may end up windy, colder with snow showers.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)
Overall pattern looks colder as we say goodbye to winter and welcome spring (equinox March 19) with a couple unsettled events during this period that can include frozen precipitation.
Thanks TK !
Thanks TK. Hope you feeling better today. Migraines are the worst.
What are you thinking for rain amounts with this one?
Thank you, TK. I was typing on yesterdays while you were posting here. Gist is I sure hope you are feeling better.
Thanks, TK.
Feel better soon, amigo!
Good morning TK and thank you.
Thanks, TK.
Also, take good care. Migraines are awful.
Thanks TK and hope you are feeling better today.
6z GFS for 3/17-18:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024030806&fh=237&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Right, and Iโm St Patrick!
In all seriousness, something like this would fit the upcoming pattern. An entirely plausible solution. And this will happen because it is right at the time we are scheduled to be flying back from Tahoe!
Good morning and thank you TK.
As depicted, NOT a big deal and the snow would basically be gone in a day or 2. ๐
AND, AIN’t GONNA HAPPEN!
Thank you TK!
Based on TKโs thoughts above, the 2nd half of this month could resemble March 1956. I wasnโt yet born but have heard stories in the past besides this blog. โ๏ธ
JPD, Vicki, Rainshine etcโฆany stories you would like to share? ๐
Philip, I don’t think TK ever said anything about the end of this month being like 1956.
I just remember 3 storms in a row. All in the foot or so range, one being on the 1st day of Spring which I believe was 3/21 that year.
I have one memory that I have shared before.
I was 9 at the time and had to walk about 3/4 mile to pick up
something at the store for my Mom. Stupid me decided to
take a short cut where I had to walk through snow that was
3 feet deep. A little tough going for a 9 year old. ๐ ๐ ๐
But, I LOVED it anyway!
That was an awesome stretch. DON’T count on a repeat this year. We may get some snow, but not the likes of 1956!!
Well that is my opinion for what it is worth. ๐
Sorry Philip. I was not quite 7 so donโt remember anything specific.
JPD, I know TK never mentioned 1956 specifically. I was just referring to snow opportunities that can occur during March or even early April after otherwise boring winters. Wasnโt 1956 an example?
Thanks for the story JPD! ๐
Iโm surprised that your mother didnโt just go herself to the store. That would be quite a trip even for a high schooler.
Well let’s just say you didn’t know my Mother. ๐
I wonder if 3/4 of a mile was considered far for kids to walkโฆat least back then. My brother and I walked 1/2 mile to school when he was in K and I was in third. I biked or walked two miles to Oakley country Club every day in summer to swim when I was 11 and that involved a very steep hill. (Not both ways ๐ )
I bet that going โdownโ that steep hill was a thrill on your bike. Wheee! ๐
Haha. Oddly I donโt remember either that or working to get up the hill on hot summer days. I just loved my summer days swimming
FWIW, the 0Z Euro for St. Patrick’s Day.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2024030800&fh=234
Far cry from the GFS
CMC
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2024030800&fh=234
I’ll start thinking about it when ALL 3 of those models are on board.
Well, here is your 12Z GFS version of events for St. Patrick’s Day. A little different than the 6Z version
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024030812&fh=225&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Color me green.
For those interested in the President’s State of the Union Address’s possible implications for drug prices, here’s my latest Forbes piece: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/03/08/in-sotu-biden-says-he-wants-to-expand-ira-drug-pricing-provisions/?sh=776878240ae7
Thanks TK
Boston snowfall 1955-56 = 60.9โ
I guess those 3 storms had A LOT to do with that final total. Thanks again JPD! ๐
I always assumed it was only one big event that month.
Thanks, TK.
No mention or idea of March 1956 in my comments about the upcoming pattern. It’s just a pattern starting around St. Pat’s Day that looks colder and may bring some systems that include the chance of frozen precip (or better chances than this month prior to that time).
Do any of them add to Boston’s snow total? Maybe. Maybe not. I can’t determine sensible weather and specific systems more than a handful of days in advance. ๐
I mean I don’t think too many people were forecasting 1 to 2.5 feet of snow more than a couple days in advance (if that) prior to the 1997 March 31-April 1 event. ๐
Big snowstorm incoming Sat night to Monday for NNE! Should start with an initial heavy thump of wet snow for the mountains Sat night and then be followed up by 24+ hours of colder, more powdery backlash/upslope snows as the secondary storm bombs out off the coast of Maine.
Mad River Glen weather blogger calling for 21-42″ there:
https://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
Tim Kelley, who blogs for Jay Peak, also expecting 20″+ there by the time all is said and done:
https://jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/snow-report-maps/weather-tim-kelley
Much needed refresh for the ski areas that have taken quite the beating over the last 7-10 days.
Awesome news. I hope it materializes. A friend told me there is no snow in Whitefield, NH. I feel so sad for these folks.
Thanks TK. Sorry weโre all giving you headaches by declaring winter to be over early.
Hope things are a little better Dr.
Iโm thinking of you also and hoping things are improving
It happens every year. I’ve never understood it.
Nobody who declares winter over does so with any scientific basis to the statement because science has proven over and over that this is a mistake. Climatology and statistics back it up.
Yes, you can guess, and you may be right, but you’d be right because you happened to guess right. There’s no science involved in such guesses, unless it’s an actual forecast made by a scientist using science. Yes, science, not “gut feeling” and not “this is what I want so I’ll say it” (otherwise known as wishcasting). Winter does not end astronomically until the equinox. Winter does not end in terms of the snow season until the last snowflakes have fallen, and nobody can tell in early March in New England when that’s going to be. Period. It can’t be done.
Parts of southern GA got multiple inches of rain in 3 hrs overnight.
Only 0.75-1.75 for us tonight.
We can handle that ๐
New weather post…