DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
A low pressure system will impact our weekend, but its precpitation will be limited to a window of under 12 hours. The daylight hours of today are just cloudy and chilly as the low approaches New England. It cuts across southern New England late tonight and early Sunday, its center passing right over the northwestern edge of the WHW forecast area about sunrise on Sunday – a rising sun we won’t see, but one that will come up just after 7:00 a.m. EDT, since Daylight Saving Time begins Sunday at 2:00 a.m. The balance of Sunday will feature blustery but drier conditions, featuring lots of clouds behind the departing / intensifying low pressure area. We’ll remain under the influence of this storm’s circulation through Tuesday, Monday featuring the most clouds and wind, Tuesday more sun but still breezy. Wednesday will feature lots of sun as high pressure moves across the region, then offshore, but clouds may advance later on as a small disturbance rapidly approaches from the west and this system may produce a passing rain shower by late-day or evening.
TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E to SE increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast mid through late evening, may begin mixed with wet snow higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, and rain may fall heavily for a time overnight. Temperatures rise to 45-52. Wind SE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, strongest along the coast.
SUNDAY: Overcast with areas of fog early morning with rain ending southwest to northeast from about 1 hour before to about 1 hour after dawn. Lots of clouds with intervals of sun for the balance of the day. Highs 48-55 by midday, then a slow temperature fall during the afternoon hours. Wind SE-SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts during the early morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts mid morning on.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Diminishing NW wind.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny through midday. Clouds arrive late. A rain shower possible evening or night. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
Mildest air will be around early in the period. The best shot at unsettled weather with a cooling trend comes during the March 15-16 time frame, while later period features a return to dry but colder weather. Details to be brought into focus in the days ahead.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
Spring begins with the vernal equinox at 11:06 p.m. EDT on March 19. Overall pattern looks chilly and active with 1 or 2 opportunities for unsettled weather, which may include frozen precipitation.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Thanks, TK.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK !
Thank you TK. Could be some surge along the coast at high tide tomorrow AM.
With a west wind I expect this to be limited to the eastern side of the bays, and minor.
Thanks TK. Hope you are feeling better.
Much better, thanks. 🙂
Great news
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png
More signs of El Niño transitioning to La Niña.
In the last 2 weeks, in the eastern equatorial Pacific, cooler than avg ocean temps have upwelled to create a first small area of below average temps.
Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the latest round of rainfall.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1
I am sitting here on one side of the powder point bridge in Duxbury.
Today is the first day of about 4 days of king tides (new moon at perigee).
There are very small, sandy beaches on the sides of this inlet.
It’s been crazy in 10-15 mins to see how fast the tide has risen. Each 3rd or 4th wave comes up the sand a few inches further. It’s so easily noticeable.
I love the tides, why I always prefer the coast. The beach is always changing. I can enjoy lakes but I get bored after a couple days.
Wow. Very special. Thank you for your description. It’s almost as if I’m there.
Thanks Vicki !
Thank you, TK !
From Eric last night.
“Little doubt that the nonexistent winter and mild start to spring are setting up for the seemingly annual damaging freeze for many in the east
Takes weeks of anomalous warmth to get ahead of schedule but only a couple hours of seasonable cold to damage a lot of early growth”
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1766190317089308843?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
Looking ahead, there “appears” to be some significant cold later in the month, especially compared to how it’s been. We shall see.
I had the sense that is what Eric is seeing and is concerned. We lost peaches last year. I can’t remember what else. Maybe forsythia.
it looks to me as IF the GFS has backed off some on the cold later in the month. Hmmm where have I seen this before.
At this point, I’ll wait and see. The coldest I see on the 6Z GFS is about 32 one morning for Boston, all the rest of the mornings are WELL above freezing. That would not be so bad. We’ll see what the total 12Z run shows. 🙂
At this point, it would be the better option. Flowers and wildlife have been earlier every year for years now but this year is extra early. I’m hoping the hummers don’t head back too early
As I think of it though….does that translate to areas outside of Boston above feeezing too?
Mostly yes, but of course some would be below when Boston is not. 🙂
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK.
Mass Dept of Fish and Game has started it’s annual trout stocking program. They still have a long way to go, but it is well on the way.
Black Pins are locations stocked already.
https://ibb.co/8jr07Kf
The ones stocked in Metro West are
Dug Pond and Lake Cochituate in Matick
Ashland Reservoir in Ashland
and
Hopkinton Reservoir in Hopkinton.
I am waiting for the Charles to be stocked in Millis, Natick and Needham. 🙂
Dug pond is supposed to be a nice, low profile place to fish. Also my family has always enjoyed going to the fisheries on the Cape.
Used to have swim lessons at Dug pond back in the day.
I have fished there before with no luck. I am more used to fishing rivers and streams rather than lakes and ponds.
I just seem to know where the fish are in the rivers while for lakes and ponds it is hit or miss, mostly miss for me. 🙂
Nice. Will send to my son
Here is website
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/trout-stocking-report
Thank you very much. I just sent to him.
🙂
Here is some info for RI trout stocking
https://dem.ri.gov/natural-resources-bureau/fish-wildlife/freshwater-fishing/trout-stocked-waters
Awesome. Thank you.
This is the coldest morning I could find on the 12Z GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024030912&fh=288&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks TK.
12z GFS with a potent Nor’Easter on 3/20:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024030912&fh=270&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Snow to Nantucket by the end of it…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024030912&fh=276&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow is about a foot for Boston:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024030912&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The snow in SNE is pretty much all from that storm. The stuff up North is from a series of storms starting with this weekend’s. If anything, looking promising for ski country as we start Spring skiing season.
Thanks, TK!
Tyler Jankoski NBC5
@TylerJankoski
14h
Easily one to two FEET of snow at our northern mountain *summits* when you add up BOTH rounds: wet snow Saturday night and powder snow Sunday night into Monday. Talk about a turnaround!
https://x.com/TylerJankoski/status/1766313950260375767?s=20
I am DEFINITELY getting a picture in front of this on Thursday 🙂
Active NorCal
@ActiveNorCal
2h
The snow walls are getting LARGE at Palisades Tahoe.
: Stu Gitlin
https://x.com/ActiveNorCal/status/1766490076891185295?s=20
I can’t even imagine.
Anyone planning on heading to NNE for the total solar eclipse might as well just cancel now, lol.
Eric Webb
@webberweather
19h
Forecasting CLOUDS a whole month out?!
What are we doing here?
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1766236722818629668?s=20
I’m just going to leave that one alone. 😉
Tulips popping out of the ground down here near TF Grene. They will probably croak with possible upcoming cold.
I hope not. Surprisingly, cold has not seemed to bother ours. I’ve said a few times that our daffodil flowers were sitting proudly above the near foot of snow we got April 29, 1987.
Thanks, TK.
Community garden never went dormant. This is a first, at least for me. Kale grew during this `winter.’
Looking ahead, I’m not too worried about the colder temperatures later this month in terms of the impact on vegetation in SNE (different story in states that have citrus plants). The flowers and vegetation here can survive lower 30s, unless they’re tropical plants. If the temperature were to plummet to, say, the low to mid 20s, I’d worry. But frankly I don’t see that happening at the coast. I’ve turned on the front spigot for our building so the landscapers can clean out and manage the front garden. There’s definite growth throughout. Of course, if we get temps in the 20s I’ll turn off the water.
And now the biggest job this weekend: Changing the clocks. I think I’ll do it now so I don’t forget.
Don’t underestimate that cold potential. I would not turn on any outside water yet.
Our outside water spigots are nre kind thar done freeze. But the outside shower is turned off. I don’t think anyone plans to shower soon.
My SIL didn’t drain our irrigation system. Yikes. We will see how that went.
MJO update…
Believe it or not, as the MJO comes around the cycle, next time I am becoming more convinced it is NOT going to drop into the circle when it reaches favorable phases for cold/snow, and it’s going to occur very late in the game, or more like “overtime”, as this looks like a March 18-30 event.
How ironic that we may need snow removal equipment more after the vernal equinox than we did during the winter proper. It’s a distinct possibility. This is based on science, not “a feeling”. That said, time will tell and I’ll continue to monitor the trends, but they are currently in favor of a very late taste of winter around here.
Don’t fall into the trap of “it hasn’t, so it can’t”. That’s not how weather works.
It sure isn’t. We shall see.
IIRC in the 80’s we plowed snow i think 3 times in the Town of Weston Mass. 2 for sure one year. The April 1 storm dropped 24″ in 24 hrs. Don’t know that I could say I’ve seen it snow harder than that night. Maybe it was the size of the flakes. I have wondered how much that storm would have produced if it was 1 or 2 deg colder. It can happen. Then there was the Easter nor’easter and April 6 , 82 etc.
I remember one Easter going go Fantasias in fresh pond for Easter dinner and coming out to find everything white. I think it was maybe 69 or 70 though and not 1982. I not remembering that one
I was around then. 70 or so. No , not 82. 82 was a real cold windy storm with at least a foot.
Makes sense. The one I mentioned wasn’t a foot as I recall
This may have been one of the storms you plowed in 80s. My youngest is an august baby but walked at 13 months so it would be the start of 1987/1988 winter in Framingham near the Sudbury/Weston line.
https://ibb.co/94qZ4vP
yes, but it was a late March Easter. I am thinking 3/29 or 3/30.
that part I don’t rember for sure
The one in 1982 or late 60s?
1969 or 1970
Sounds right to me. Thank you. I was just learning to drive a stick in the 69 Mach I I’d just bought. Taking it out in even a little snow was not a great plan.
Thanks TK. March 20th is my birthday so of course winter wants to try to rear its ugly head. lol
Thanks to those that replied to me yesterday. Things are… chaotic here but will hopefully improve over the course of a few months.
Happy early birthday. And march 20 is the date for my cataract surgery ….i am beginning to think we can bet on something for that day.
Best of luck!
I thought about this a bit. I think it gets to be kind of a new routine. But above all and as hard as I know it is, you are beyond special to be there for your aunt.
I forgot to mention that unfortunately she did pass. She went from breaking her hip on jan 2nd, hospital for surgery and there for a week, rehab for a month, hospital again for a few days, hospice for a few weeks and then gone. When you have dementia and have anesthesia it makes it worse and then mix in UTIs which apparently also make the dementia worse… you become part of that massive statistic that the majority of 80+ year olds breaking their hips leads to death. I was at least happy it was here at home.
Oh no. I sincerely apologize if I missed this or had a brain freeze. We learned also that dementia, anesthesia and especially a UTi takes a horrific toll. She was blessed to be at home. Thanks to you. Warm hugs to you both
Oh, I am so sorry for your loss. My condolences.
So sorry Dr. Thoughts and prayers to you and your family.
I’m very sorry, Dr. S.
My condolences.
B’s 3-0 at the end of the 2nd, Marchand scores 399th goal!
5-1 final. 🙂
My shovel and ice melt is still at the ready. It will stay right where it is until at least the end of the month. 🙂
I think you’ll be good Philip
The gut has spoken 🙂
I bet TK’s shovel is still out and ready. 😉
Absolutely nuking snow in VT:
https://www.madriverglen.com/live-web-cam/
Nice. Rain has just begun here. Temp 39.
Easter Sunday 1970. I forget how much. Fairly substantial for spring though.
At least several inches? I was a bit too young to remember the event. Barry used to talk about it on air just about every Easter he was on duty.
That has to be the Easter I remember. After dinner, I took my new car to visit a friend on Belmont hill. There is a slight….and I mean slight…hill at the lights outside of Belmont center. I popped the clutch three times before I could get through the green light.
Thank you TK!
Great Bruins game and now hoping the Celtics can come out with a win.
Continuing to pound snow in VT.
Check out the Okemo snowstake. Looks like about 8” already:
https://i.imgur.com/PFcgvDA.jpeg
We just had a bright flash of lightning and loud thunder in Rockaway Beach, NY – sign of storm strengthening?
Nice
So it’s 12:30 and I’m still watching a movie. And I forget we lose an hour. Ugh
Oh no…hopefully you slept in this morning
Easter Sunday, March 29, 1970
At least Word Press is on the same timeline this year and has already adjusted to DST. In years past, TK has had to “fix” it.
I fixed it at 1:57 a.m. EST. 😉
Dr. S, sorry for your loss.
New weather post…