Monday March 18 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)

A passing disturbance to the southeast has tossed a blanket of mid level clouds over the region during the overnight hours and this still sits over the southeastern half of the WHW forecast area at dawn today, but will slide off to the northeast and east with time. There are some patchy clouds back to the west already, indicative of enough low level moisture to trigger cumulus cloud development as the sun heats the land during the day today, resulting in a sun/cloud combo for the entire region as we get to the midday and afternoon. I don’t think any of these clouds will grow enough to produce any precipitation, as I had previously indicated. So, a dry Monday, breezy, and seasonably chilly for us. We’ll be in a chilly northwesterly air flow Tuesday with a repeat of the sun/cloud mix but again I think it’ll stay dry. Spring officially arrives at 11:06 p.m. EDT with the vernal equinox. Wednesday, a disturbance will approach and move into the area, bringing more cloudiness and the chance of some showers of rain/mix/snow. This system exits Thursday, which will be a dry but windy and chilly March day. Friday will be more tranquil as a weak area of high pressure slides through the region, but high and mid level clouds may increase by later Friday ahead of our next unsettle weather threat, which some guidance has here as early as Friday night with a rain/mix/snow threat. Stay tuned…

TODAY: A canopy of clouds eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT to start the day. Otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dissipate. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Rain/mix/snow chance evening/night. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)

Storm signal still there for the start of the period – details to be determined. Additional unsettled weather presents rain/mix/snow chances beyond that. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Additional unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures in an active early spring weather pattern.

57 thoughts on “Monday March 18 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  4. Thanks, TK.

    Read about the steady increase in allergies due to pollen on one of the Dutch news sites yesterday. And then this morning an article appeared in my feed on climate change and allergies. Below are a few highlights:

    “Global warming impacts pollen allergies in a few different ways. First, the “freeze free” season (i.e. the season in which the ground thaws and plants/trees can grow) is longer now than it used to be. This allows plants to bloom earlier, which introduces tree pollen earlier than it used to. One study in PNAS showed that in North America, the pollen season is on average about 20 days longer now than it was in 1990.

    Second, climate change also contributes to geographic changes in pollen concentration, which can introduce pollen to new regions previously unexposed. This may cause people who have not experienced pollen allergies previously to become sensitized and start having symptoms.”

    1. Last week I had a full scale attack. I thought for sure I had contracted covid, but I tested negative 3 days in a row, so I could only surmise that it was allergies as I had been out for a walk ont hat most windy day last week. My nose dripped like a faucet and I NEVER sneezed so many times in my life!!!

      There my very well be something to what you said!!

    2. Interesting Joshua. Thank you. I didn’t have any allergies as a youth. Into my 60s I’d get sneezy when the lilacs came out. Then slight asthma. It has gotten worse each year in the 2000s. I now have an appt with a pulmonologist but could get it till summer. Our planting zones have now changed

      https://mahoneysgarden.com/embracing-change-usda-plant-hardiness-zone-map-gets-an-update-in-2023/#:~:text=Previously%20Massachusetts%20fell%20in%20between,you're%20in%20zone%206b!

  9. There’s no question allergies have gotten worse over the past 3 decades. Is some of that related to better ways of diagnosing? Yes. But independent of this, there’s plenty of evidence that allergies are increasing and impacting areas previously less impacted or not impacted at all.

    1. Mine have actually diminished to the point of no longer needing the weekly shots I got as a kid and no longer needing to take regular allergy meds.

      This includes both pollen and animal allergies. Mold spores are the only thing with notable impact on me now.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Back from France and it was so lovely. Snowed the first day and then nothing but sun and warm temps. No winds either. Wish everyone could experience it.

  13. The run to run of the GFS is so inconsistent.

    The system about 5 days out.

    On the 00z GFS, the northern and southern stream systems stay essentially separate until the system is past us.

    On the running 12z GFS, the systems phase for a quick, but heavy rain storm in southern New England.

      2. Now there’s a blast from the past!!!

        I could think of a more modern statement, but it might not
        be for a general audience. 🙂

            1. We had one. I think it lasted decades. Did they sell them door to door???

              A dear friend of my grandparents and mom invented the bagless vacuum. T Russ Hill. My mom wanted him to be my godfather. My dad didn’t believe in godfathers so said no. Russ left each godchild one million when he passed away. 🙁

              https://rainbowsystem.com/about-us/our-history/

                1. Thanks JPD. I only found this out recently. I wondered how My grandfather and his brother knew Russ. They got into the appliance business just as electric appliances became popular so made a fortune. I never knew how but suspect they met Russ through this channel. We also just found old newspaper articles mentioning My grandfather testified against Charles ponzi. Yikes

  14. TK – In the previous blog, you mentioned that MJO determines whether we snow or not. Has the MJO lost its “MOJO” if you will? Lol. 😀

    I was making a joke more than anything but what “phase” is necessary to get snow?

    1. HAH that’s a good one.

      To be clear, MJO is not the sole factor, certainly, but the MJO phases have worked very much against snow events in SNE. I’ve seen the cycle do this too many times now to ignore it. Also, CPC mentioned something similarly in a recent discussion.

      As you know, there are 8 phases, based on the location of persistent convection in the tropics (with respect to longitude). Phases 7, 8, and 1 are favorable snow phases early to mid winter. Phases 8, 1, and 2 are favorable snow phases mid to late winter. Phases 3 through 6 are less favorable, however an MJO in those phases is NOT a no-snow certainty if some other factors line up. Our problem this year, in general, is that literally nothing has lined up. And when MJO went to favorable phases it just happened to become weak / non-factor. The odds of that happening are probably not all that great in general, but the atmosphere just worked out this way…

      However, we may get MJO into 2 favorable phases while still strong enough to help us out between March 22 and the end of the month.

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Glad your mother is coming home today- I think it is today. In any case, great news.
    Vicki – last I read Mac’s brother’s grand-daughter( I might have that wrong) had problems with her baby twins and all is ok. Sorry I haven’t kept up with WHW (or even the weather that much- just seems to be either damp, gray, partial sun and seems always windy). Marc is better after his heart attack but still gets pressure and a little pain. Has been going for tests to check out things. My back has been out a lot (gone to Physical Therapy, not much help). Stomach aches a lot; I have always had problems w/my stomach since a child. drs. say it’s my IBS but waiting to get a colonoscopy. SSK – surprised to hear you are retiring. Good luck and hope your wife is better. Joshua, some other time need to ask you a question re: covid when you get a chance. Hope I didn’t leave anyone out. Hope everyone feels better. Where has Alisonrod been? Wasn’t he around in the winter a lot?

    2. Hey rainshine hope your back & stomach gets better & your husband stronger . Retiring was a joke as I’ll be 53 in July so I have a ways to go one day at a time . I wish I could retire , well I could but it would be pretty stupid if I did as that would mean leaving a lot of money on the table .

    3. Hi rainshine. Sounds as if some things have improved but I sure hope they get a handle on everything. It’s been a very long time for you both. I’m so sorry.

      My niece is carrying twins in two uteruses. One is not gaining but both heartbeats are strong. Thank you for asking.

  18. We had a great hike up Mt. Watatic this afternoon. There was a little ice, some mud, and a bit of wind, but nothing bad.

  19. Mom is home. Adjusting to being back and some changes that need to be made. Most of them are made. Others will be phased in.

    She’s doing well!

    3. Wonderful news!

      And thank you for your consistency and wonderful writing. I’ve been MIA a lot recently, but I really appreciate this blog.

    1. A little late in the game. No?

      Oh well, not much we can do about it.
      Watch, I’ll be ready to go fishing one Saturday or Sunday and we’ll have a BLIZZARD!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Actually it’s not too late to help the chances. It may hover outside the circle into the final days of the month too as it moves through phases 8, 1, and 2.

        1. UGH! As much as I love SNOW, I honestly do NOT want to see it now. I really am in FULL SPRING MODE and ready
          for fishing, which could be as early as this weekend or next. 🙂

  21. Rainshine, wishing your husband continued recovery after his heart attack. Regarding your stomach issues, I wish you well. It’s plagued me since I was about 4. IBS and functional dyspepsia are more common than you think (less so among men, but even I have it). Feel free to email me regarding Covid at any time: joshua.parsons.cohen@gmail.com

  22. Touched 50 here briefly this afternoon, making it an absolutely
    BEAUTIFUL DAY!!!!!

    Perhaps not a top 10, but right up there only because it was a little cooler than what it has been. 🙂

  23. Electrolux is a Swedish company. They made – and still make, I believe – excellent products. It was THE vacuum cleaner in the Netherlands when I lived there. I learned to appreciate all the incredible products Sweden makes – a tiny country population-wise (about 10 million) – when I lived in Holland. Volvo and Saab automobiles, of course, but also Saab airplanes. Then there’s the aforementioned Electrolux, but also Hasselblad (the camera used during the Apollo missions to the moon), Scania trucks (very popular in Europe), Ericsson telephones, Husqvarna appliances and equipment, AstraZeneca pharmaceuticals, etc … It’s an incredible list. The Swedes are also exceptionally good at many different sports and I mean considerably disproportionate to the size of the population (sort of like the Czechs). Then Swedish culture – eg, Ingmar Bergman – and even cuisine or at least food (knäckebröd or flat crisp bread) as well as things like retailers, such as IKEA.

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