Tuesday March 19 2024 Forecast (7:07AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)

Winter’s final hours are counted down today, leading up to the arrival of spring with the occurrence of the vernal equinox at 11:06 p.m. tonight. However, we are not done talking about the possibility of winter weather, which is never unusual in the spring, even if we’ve hardly had a winter. First, a dry day is in store today with a gusty westerly breeze and a sun/cloud mix as we remain under the influence of the pressure gradient between low pressure to our northeast and high pressure to our southwest. The high slides by tonight and a new low pressure area from the west approaches on Wednesday. This system will pass through the region Wednesday night. It is during the afternoon and night time hours that we can see showers, mainly in the form of rain during the afternoon, but switching to snow showers as colder air arrives from west to east at night. Fair and chilly weather is expected for Thursday and most of Friday, with sunshine dominate on Thursday and clouds arriving Friday ahead of our next storm system. This one brings a combination of rain and snow to the region Saturday, but the details of the rain vs. snow and exact timing still need to be fine-tuned. Either way, it looks like a stormy start to the first weekend of spring.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Black ice patches overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely. Temperatures generally 35-45. Wind variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)

Fair, colder early period. Another storm signal mid to late period

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Additional unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures in an active early spring weather pattern.

74 thoughts on “Tuesday March 19 2024 Forecast (7:07AM)”

  2. Thanks TK. My son in law is hoping to climb Mt Washington this Saturday. Looks like weather might be an issue. Do you have an early forecast?

  5. Thanks TK! Shocking – more clouds and moisture in the Friday-Sunday time frame – Will we ever see the perfect weather weekend in 2024?

    I notice the Upper Midwest in the Minneapolis area is primed for two respectable snowstorms. This, after not only going through a 34 day streak of no moisture, but experiencing all time record highs as well in February. They could have 18 inches of snow on the ground by next Tuesday. Quite a flip.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    DB, unless you’re prepared for winter elements, Saturday may not be the best day to climb Mt. Washington. My guess is that it will be quite cold atop the mountain, windy with some snow. Even in mild winters, Mt. Washington is our mini Siberia. It is currently 6F (wind chill of -26F). That’s not going to improve much this week. If anything it will probably get colder. For details, see: https://mountwashington.org/

      1. Thanks for the info and the link. Thankfully he has hired a guide and agreed to turn around or postpone if conditions are bad.

      1. What’s funny is, using the model skill scores, the ECMWF AI model is outperforming not only the regular ECMWF, but most of the other models too.

        1. I wonder what the disconnect is, then.

          Better on skill, yet some opinions I see out there aren’t too flattering.

  13. I’ve been watching the AI. It’s about as good as a random guess so far. I see no near future usefulness.

    1. Perhaps a little rain per TK’s forecast.

      WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

  15. As I was walking along, I saw my first ant today. No, I didn’t step on it but almost did. 🙂

    Another sign of spring I suppose. The insect world is starting to emerge but I wonder if it ever really left with the winter being so relatively mild.

  16. On AI, I see some usefulness but also a lot of crap.

    Take AI translations, for example. If you really know foreign languages like I do, AI translations – especially of idiom – aren’t good.

    Or, very simple AI, and you’d think, easily adaptable, such as its use in sentence completions for email or text replies on a cell phone. The latter is often wrong, not appropriate for the context and sometimes just laughably inaccurate. In email it’s not as error-prone, BUT it can be. Here’s an example. In my emails I use the phrase “I am a drug pricing and reimbursement expert …” VERY frequently, usually as part of a pitch. Well, when I type “I am a drug …” the system generates a word to complete the sentence: “addict.” I am not kidding.

    AI generated papers for students or academic, say, using ChatGPT are formulaic, almost robotic, which may be okay in the natural sciences (though still with limitations) but isn’t so great in the social sciences like economics.

    AI intelligence assumes a perhaps purely logical, linear way of thinking. Great for certain things. Not so great for others.

    2. ChatGPT agrees with you too!

      Here’s its reply to “AI generated papers are formulaic, almost robotic”:
      I appreciate your perspective. It’s true that AI-generated papers can sometimes exhibit a certain formulaic style, given the nature of the algorithms used to generate them. However, advancements in AI are continually pushing the boundaries of creativity and originality. As researchers refine these models and explore new techniques, we can expect to see more nuanced and diverse outputs. It’s an exciting time for the intersection of artificial intelligence and academic research.

      1. And in the form of a haiku:
        AI churns out words,
        Structured, robotic, sterile,
        Creativity lost.

        🙂

  17. Looking like my best guess snow prediction down here in Warwick near pvd airport might hold at 23 inches I believe we are at 21 inches. Time will tell.

    1. 21 inches in Warwick RI. That’s pretty good. I’m jealous. We’re about half that in Boston. And I have to add the snow we had was mostly forgettable.

      I’m going with a bold and completely baseless prediction for December 2024, though. We’re going to get hit by several major snowstorms along with December cold we haven’t seen around here in 44 years.

    1. I can’t resist one last post on this, in the style of e.e. cummings:

      In pixels dance, where bytes collide,
      AI generates, formulas abide,
      Yet within the circuitry’s coded frame,
      Creativity’s spark seeks to reclaim.

      In echoes of thought, in patterns new,
      The robotic mask, it fades from view.
      For in the dance of ones and naughts,
      A poet’s heart still bravely taut.

      From structured lines, emerges art,
      Defying limits, the human heart.
      Though formulaic, the AI may seem,
      In its depths, a poet’s dream.

      So let us embrace this digital tide,
      Where innovation and art collide.
      For in the realm of ones and zeros,
      Poetry’s spirit forever grows.

  19. This is where I start to watch the CFS for idea of the pattern for the eclipse. Right now, the model has a big, fat, elongated trough of low pressure along the entire path of the eclipse from Texas to New England with very little area of clear sky. 😉

      1. I’m going to Vermont either way. Just to experience the darkness, even if I can’t see the sun. 🙂

          1. Hmmmmmm. Very curious. I remember the pool we belonged to in the summer sent all kids home one summer. It was part of a golf course, but I do not remember if the course closed. I suspect it was more to keep the kids from looking up and staring.

            2. This is somewhat typical for a precautionary set of measures. It’s not too often a total eclipse crosses any one location. These events draw a tremendous amount of spectators into a very narrow path, and can cause quite a strain on local resources and cause major traffic issues. A type of crowding if you will.

              With many people driving distances to get into the path, gas stations, for example, would be more prone to running dry. Similarly, stores could run out of many things if many times the customers are showing up in a 48 hour period than what would normally be seen. And since it’s not a frequent event in any one location, not too many people think about that stuff.

              Also, the school closings make sense from a couple of viewpoints. More traffic on the roads in the areas impacted by the eclipse mean more accidents would be likely. Also, in some locations, the darkness would coincide with home-from-school times. Having school not in session would be a good safety measure.

  20. Also of note regarding the eclipse.

    Comet Pons-Brooks (The Devil Comet) makes its closest pass to earth in 71 years on April 21. On the 8th, if the sky is clear enough, people in the path of totality should be able to see it, if they know exactly where to look. More to come on that…

    1. I love this. And I’ll be humming bewitched bothered and bewildered all night. Love love the Music

  22. To DB,

    Don’t know how accomplished of a climber your son is, but climbers have been have been having challenges. Crampons needed instead of microspikes and an ice axe is pretty necessary.

  23. B’s 2-0 over Ottawa after the first. B’s played lazy hockey for first 10 minutes and then picked it up. Both goals by Pasta, He is a magician on offense.

  24. TK – With regard to the total eclipse next month, how long will “total” darkness actually last? A few minutes? Hours?

    1. Philip:

      In Middleborough, the eclipse starts at 2:16 and ends at 4:41. 91.6% totality will be at 3:29. Hope this helps! 🙂

    2. It depends on where you are. There is only “total” darkness in the path of totality. That does not occur anywhere in MA. The path of totality come out of NY and crosses far northern New England.

      My plan is to to be right in the center of the path in northern VT.

      1. 1. 1936-37 = 9.0”
        2. 2011-12 = 9.3”
        3. 2023-24 = 9.7” (still TBD)
        4. 2022-23 = 12.4”
        5. 1979-80 = 12.7”

        SSK: Let’s wait until Patriots Day weekend (Marathon Monday) before we “officially” close the book. 🙂

    2. That’s not official yet. The rank is not final until the end of the “snow year”, which is June 30. THAT is when the rank is made official, not at any time before that. We have had measurable snow in May before. You can’t call the season over in March.

      1. Even the Berkshires can’t possibly snow in June.

        May 30 would make more sense to “officially” end the snow season imo.

        1. Or can it?

          “ It should be noted that June snowfall in the Northeast is not an event unique to 1816. On June 11, 1842, widespread snow fell over northern New York and New England and snowflakes were observed in Cleveland, Ohio; Boston, Massachusetts; and even Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Accumulations of 10-12” were common in Vermont, so this event may actually have been more extreme than the famous snow of June 1816.”

        2. It’s done by modified calendar year. July 1 through June 30.
          And the mountains have seen snow in June. June snow anywhere in New England is rare, obviously more extremely rare the further south and east you go. None of us alive here in southeastern New England have seen it, and probably won’t, but statistics don’t say “never”, so in climatology this needs to be taken into account.

          Additionally, snow is part of the “frozen precipitation” category for climate purposes, which also include ice pellets, graupel, and hail. Hail can most certainly occur any month of the year, and while the vast majority of times would be recorded as a trace, it technically can fall in measurable quantities.

          All of these reasons, as well as common sense, say we do not leave a void in part of the calendar year that can’t be part of the “snow season”. And if we did that, we’d have to vary it for each part of the country based on their climatology. That’s just plain silly, so the snow season is July 1 through June 30 from a climate standpoint. From any one location’s standpoint, it’s the date of the first snowfall that year, to the date of the last snowfall that year. And that will vary year to year.

  26. Any thoughts on timing for Saturday’s storm. Have a friend who’s getting married and she’s wondering if we get any dry time during the day. Looking over things I see it wet pretty much morning to night. Am I missing anything?

      1. Thanks TK. She has two slots to try outside photos, 12-1:30 and 3:30-4:30 and guessing neither will be an option unfortunately. But she knew her luck would be minimal getting married in March.

  27. Speaking of snow, southern, eastern and the mountains of Maine look to do very well in these two systems. Todays system explodes just in time to deliver close to
    12 inches from Bangor north and east. Even Augusta looks to get in on the action. And Saturday’s system is trending colder and juicier for Maine and most of southern Maine all the at up north, easily 8+ inches and euro drops 12-18 region wide. So winter shouldn’t declared over anytime soon, I get they are different climate but we aren’t talking about a massive difference.

  28. And also speaking of snow…some snowflakes in millbury.

    If I head to my appointment before new blog is up, happy birthday Dr S!!

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