DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)
High pressure brings sun and more tranquil weather today before it slips away. Clouds arrive later today and thicken up tonight ahead of our next storm system. Precipitation arrives late evening and overnight as rain to the south, snow to the north, with some minor snow accumulation before it changes to rain. And then we have a rainy Saturday ahead. The upcoming storm has 2 main pulses associated with 2 low pressure centers. The first passes by in the morning and the second comes later Saturday when the heaviest rain will occur across the region – even a chance for thunder. As this pulls through, colder air will arrive, maybe quickly to turn the rain back to a mix or even brief snow northwest of Boston before it ends. Sunday’s going to be a drier day, but clouds may hang in as another low pressure area develops offshore, not too far to the southeast of our area. With high pressure approaching from the west, the air flow between it and the offshore storm will tighten up and we’ll end up windy again Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday of next week, the combination of moisture from the offshore low, and another approaching low from the west, will likely converge on our region to turn the weather wet once again. Not sure of the details on this yet, and will fine-tune those in future blog updates.
TODAY: Sun dominates but gives way to advancing clouds west to east late. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Precipitation arrives late evening / overnight, mainly rain but starting as snow/mix north of I-90 with a coating to 2 inches possible, highest amounts in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37 evening, may rise overnight. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, stronger at the coast.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, heaviest during the mid to late afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast, higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain ends early, but may end as mix/snow north and west of Boston. Lows 32-39. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusty.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusty.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)
Stretch of unsettled weather as a couple of low pressure areas impact the region through March 29, mostly rain but some mix/snow may become involved as colder air will be nearby. Drier trend for the March 30-31 weekend, but a low confidence outlook out that far.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)
Additional unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures in an active early spring weather pattern.
Thanks TK !
Vicki, glad everything went well with your surgery !!
Thank you, Tom. My eye is still healing but I don’t seem to need glasses. I’m now debating not having the second eye done.
Thanks TK. How much snow do you expect around mt. Washington tomorrow?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024032200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024032200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024032200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Of course, models are just simulations but the GFS, Euro and GDPS seem to have hefty amounts in the Mt Washington vicinity.
Thanks, Tom. Looks like a hefty amount.
Good morning and thank you TK
39 for high yesterday here.
25 this morning for a rather chilly night.
Looks like group picked the wrong weekend despite waiting until late March. Know it can be cold and snowy there for some time still but hoped for good timing.
Thanks TK
I was surprised to see that a tree toppled over in the wind yesterday and came through the roof of a house in JP.
They didn’t give an address, so I don’t know how close it was
to me or to Hadi. Pretty scary!!!
I must say, the windows were rattling in this old house yesterday!!!
Thanks, TK.
DB, it’s hard to pick a good time to climb Mt. Washington at this time of year. In fact, I’d argue that March and April may be the most difficult, even more so than December and January. Generally less wind in December and January and a bit more predictable.
12z HRRR rainfall
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024032212&fh=44&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
snowfall
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024032212&fh=44&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Some 2 foot snow totals in the high Whites, which obviously includes Mt. Washington. 🙂
We don’t need no STINKEN 2 inches of rain in the Boston Area!!!!!
Thanks, TK!
23 this morning.
This is an interesting set-up.
Its not one compact low but a whole length of the east coast system with other low centers to the south.
This is one, I could see has a chance to underacheive. Perhaps if convection south of us prevents as much moisture as being modeled getting into New England ???
I’d wager that it has a rather large potential to OVER ACHIEVE. 🙂
Absolutely ! Tonga and persistence.
12z NAM rain
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024032212&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024032212&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024032200&fh=384&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Why am I posting hr 384 of the GFS ?
Because it is now up to 8pm of April 6th, about 36 hrs before the eclipse at 2pm on April 8th.
Well, if this low could be progressive and not have a lot of cold air aloft behind it to cause instability fair weather clouds, maybe we could be under the high pressure behind it. That would be nice !!
Oh, I get that, but my first thought was that you were posting
it to suggest that it could track farther South and East and hit
us with an April SNOW STORM. 🙂
Thank you, TK. 21 low overnight here. Turned heat on again.
Glad your surgery went well, Vicki!
Thank you!
Certainly an interesting start to the beginning of winter across New England.
Now that is truly FUNNY!!!
Hahahahahahahahaha
The City of Boston has recorded 2 (not a typo) homicides thus far in 2024. A remarkably low number. Frankly, this should be headline news.
The city had already been on a positive trend (meaning fewer homicides) in 2022 and 2023. But the latest news is impressive to say the least.
But the number of shootings remains high , just fortunately not resulting in fatalities.
TOO MANY GUNS ON THE STREET!!!
WE NEED TO GET RID OF THEM!!!!
Massachusetts does well …not the best but darned close
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/strictest-gun-laws-by-state
It will go up don’t worry . You know how many folks are being shot at every single day in Boston , including the Boston cop who was just shot ( vest saved his life ) way , way to many guns on the street & folks are shooting at people for looking at them the wrong way . It’s not just Boston it’s everywhere. Today’s society is just a different animal & it’s one that I do not even like . Sometimes minding your own business is not good enough anymore.
It will sadly go up. If there is any consolation, and it isn’t a lot, we are in one of the best states and in the best area of the country. Check the bottom state here. It’s 2023 stats. Getting a gun license in this state is VERY difficult
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1380025/us-gun-violence-rate-by-state/
That’s for legal guns. There is a very serious issue with
a proliferation of illegal guns.
How many shootings in Boston or any big city are committed by legally licensed gun owners? I’ll bet a smallish percentage. Some for sure, but I’d bet the majority are committed with illegal guns.
Still looking but found this
https://www.statista.com/statistics/476461/mass-shootings-in-the-us-by-legality-of-shooters-weapons/
This is as obscene as it gets. Look at the number using legally obtained Guns.
wow,
I stand corrected. thank you.
Never would havecthought that.
Very small
Not sure who you are replying to but I’m not sure about that if it’s number of level vs illegal. Did you find numbers
And I am more sure now.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/most-guns-used-in-boston-shootings-coming-in-from-other-states-da-says/2766099/?amp=1
Me , I was replying to old salty
Does it say it is limited to just legal. I missed that. I do know getting a license in ma has you jumping through hoops.
Thank you TK!
Happy Friday!
TK – do you still think Natick gets about an inch of rain tomorrow? At least around here water has receded quite a bit. Thanks.
1-3 inches of rain.
The CFS model has trended to a scenario where Texas and New England would see a solar eclipse but most areas in between would not…
Still a long way to go…
Only a 39 point victory for UConn men’s basketball. 😉
Last night’s Oakland-Kentucky game was one of the best sporting events I have seen in a long time!
Indeed it was!
When I filled out my pool bracket I initially went with Oakland, THEN CHANGED IT. Darn it!
Oh ouch.
THAT’S why I stopped playing the brackets. Too much heartache even though it was mostly for fun. Of course I have played for money as well. Back in the day, I could sort of sense the “upsets”. Maybe like a 7 vs. 10 for example.
Honestly, it’s fun. I don’t take stuff like this that seriously. If it’s going to be a source of stress for me then I’m approaching it completely the wrong way.
Thankfully win or lose it is a lot of fun. 🙂
I had Kentucky going to the elite 8.
Down in Brooklyn at the NCAA tournament.
Well things have trended colder here in the Augusta area. 12-18 is the opening bid, unfortunately not here for good news. My MIL is in her last days so we are here to say goodbye. We will enjoy the storm as we can’t really visit in a full fledged powerhouse storm. My wife will but the kids and I will stay back.
Hadi I am so very sorry to hear this. Please extend my deepest condolences to your wife and to All.
Thinking of your family Hadi during this tough time.
so sorry to hear.
Sorry to hear that, Hadid.
We are going thru the same thing.
Prayers continue for you and your family, Weatherbee. ❤️
Sorry to hear this Weatherbee. Sending prayers.
Sorry Hadi and Weatherbee2.
Hadi and Weatherbee2, I’m very sorry to hear about what your family is going through. My thoughts are with you.
In places like Norwich, VT – where my sister lives – they’re expecting the biggest winter storm of the season thus far. Impressive low temps when the storm exits. Could very well get down to 10F or even single digits.
It hasn’t exactly been warm here either. The birds are noticeably quieter, except for the occasional “what the hell happened” chirp I hear from my robin friend. Flowers which had begun to appear, as well as several magnolia blooms, are sort of in still life mode. They just stopped all forward progress and they reached a point of no return so there’s no getting back into the bud.
Temp 37…spitting snow here
Thanks everyone. Yes, it’s been a very tough to watch this over the last 3 years. Hoping it ends quickly at this time.
Very sorry to hear Hadi.
Moderate snow along the route 2 corridor is accumulating on unpaved surfaces with ease.
My friend in Acton has just under 1/2 inch not long after it started.
Just a coating here on grass surfaces.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KDIX/standard
Wall of water approaching
indeed
I think underachieving is off the table 🙂 🙂 🙂
Yuo
On the 4th full day of spring, northern New England is receiving 1-2 ft of snow and barrow, AK is currently 30F.
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PABR.html
Barrie’s avg high on March 23rd is -2.8F
Barrow’s
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KGYX/standard
Nice lead band of moderate snow in northern New England.
North Conway cam shows a winter wonderland up there already.
I’d say it’s solid Moederate snow at Killington, perhaps even bordering on heavy
https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/north-ridge-cam
That’s a great cam !
The snow looks fairly deep on the trails, looking at the base of the trees on the right.
Hopefully, this will set up the ski areas for a few weeks of great spring skiing to help offset the tough winter they experienced.
They have made a ton of snow on this trail and a few others, most especially Super Star which they try to keep open until June. 🙂
Not sure they will make it this year, but this storm will surely help.
New weather post…