Sunday March 24 2024 Forecast (8:50AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)

A potential hazard exists for parts of the region to start the day today, and that is ice patches on the ground in the wake of yesterday’s storm system. Far north and west of Boston from the Worcester Hills to the Monadnock Region the temperature never got that far above freezing, and in some cases sat near to below freezing for a good part of the day on Saturday. Coatings to a few inches of snow were followed by sleet and freezing rain, and even areas that changed to rain did not warm up all that much. This was followed by a temperature drop overnight. Further south and east, while the initial snow/sleet and eventual freezing rain were not an issue, wet ground was left behind from rain before temperature fell sub-freezing. In many areas, a pick-up of overnight and early morning wind has helped to evaporate water / sublimate ice off many surfaces, but where that did not occur, be alert for icy patches that may linger for a while this morning, before the combination of wind and temperatures climbing over freezing, as well as higher sun angle where the sun is shining, will help largely eliminate the ice-on-ground issue. For our weather today, offshore low pressure and high pressure to our northwest will combine to create a brisk north to northeast wind, and while it will be a dry day, we’ll have a canopy of clouds often covering much of the east / southeast 1/2 to 2/3 of the sky. This will limit the sun earlier in the day, but allow it to shine more later on. This set-up shifts only slightly on Monday with high pressure a bit further northeast and low pressure a bit further southwest, shifting our wind more to northeast. While the upper level cloud canopy will still be a factor, we may see more lower clouds being driven in off the ocean on the northeast wind, especially for coastal areas from Boston south, limiting the sun further. When we get to Tuesday and midweek, we’ll enter a stretch of unsettled weather again. This will initially begin as the offshore low pressure drifts southwest to west and throws an arm of moisture in the form of light rainfall our way during Tuesday. At the same time, another trough of low pressure will start to slide into the Northeast after high pressure has drifted sufficiently away into Atlantic Canada. These systems will combine at midweek to give us a cloudy sky and frequently wet weather. As we get closer to that, timing and rain intensity details will come more into focus, but for now plan on unsettled weather for several days…

TODAY: Limited sun early becomes brighter with time. Highs 41-48. Wind N-NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, strongest at eastern shores.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with most clouds over RI, eastern MA, NH Seacoast. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon, favoring eastern areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, strongest coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in 40s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain showers likely. Foggy times. Temperature steady in 40s. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Optimistic outlook for drying trend March 29 and a dry, chilly March 30-31 weekend. Additional unsettled weather to begin April with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)

We’ll have to continue to watch low pressure to our south to bring potential unsettled weather while high pressure to the north provides plenty of cool air.

65 thoughts on “Sunday March 24 2024 Forecast (8:50AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. I am heading to Bermuda on Thursday. Can you give me an early weekend forecast? Also has anyone flown Bermudair? Relatively new but we fly it one way.

    1. Sorry, no we haven’t Have not been to Bermuda in Years.
      We’ve been 5 times over the years and love it there.
      March temps can vary from mid 60s to mid 70s. All depends on your luck.

      We were there once this time of year and the ocean temp
      was 68, at least according to my thermometer i brought along on the trip. 🙂

      Have and fun and really enjoy yourself. I hope you get sunny warm weather!!

    2. Enjoy !

      Been once before and booked on a Boston to Bermuda cruise during April.

      Hope you get sunny days.

      I do see the water temp surrounding Bermuda is currently in the mid-upper 60s.

    3. Friday: High temp about 69 under a mostly cloudy sky with passing rain showers and a gusty wind from the southwest, 15-25 MPH.

      Saturday & Sunday: Variably cloudy including some sun. Both days should see high temps around 66 with west winds 20-30 MPH.

      Quite a windy weekend ahead, but it looks mostly dry.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Reposting a post from 15 minutes ago that was under the Saturday forecast.

    JP Dave, you’re not mistaken. I saw a bit of mixing, too.

    In some ways I wasn’t kidding a few days ago when I said that it’s an interesting start to winter. My sister just texted to say that it’s 12F and sunny in Norwich, VT with a ton of snow on the ground and that not once this winter has a storm produced as much or the cold behind it been as sharp.

  7. Another thing I was not kidding about is the quieting down of the birds. There’s no chirping this morning; not even from the robin who had been saying “what the hell happened.” The magnolia in front is in still life mode with a partial bloom no longer coming out. Heck, I saw more insects in late February than I’m seeing now in the basement well.

    I also want to thank TK for alerting me to this colder weather and not to turn on the outdoor spigot. He said this 10 days ago. I did not turn on the outdoor spigot for the landscapers. That’ll have to wait.

  9. Thank you TK.

    In line with your comments, there were a lot of icy patches on the walkway along the shore this AM. Where it gets dangerous is with those patches that are very, very thin. People tend to ignore them.

  12. Thanks, TK!

    Prayers and strength to all here who are facing difficult family and personal situations.

    NWS-BOX has listed the region’s top towns and cities with the most rainfall this month.

    Highest March totals by state:
    CT: 10.46″ Montville (Oakdale)
    MA: 9.27″ Norton
    RI: 10.78″ Providence

    Tom, you wondered last night how North Attleboro has fared throughout the last couple of months with rainfall. I got bored with NCAA basketball and found a Weather Underground station on South Washington St. in North Attleboro and wrote down its precipitation amount for the last 12 months. The numbers and station look legit so I am assuming the numbers are accurate:

    March, 2024 (including last night): 9.79″
    February: 1.36″
    January: 7.83″
    December, 2023: 7.98″
    November: 2.38″
    October: 2.81″
    September: 16.39″ (WOW!)
    August: 4.80″
    July: 9.17″ (significant rains during severe thunderstorms on the Fourth of July if I remember correctly!)
    June: 3.26″
    May: 3.36″
    April: 4.29″

    That’s a total of 73.42″ in 12 months!!!

    I hope your home and property continues to be okay, North.
    Enough is enough!!!

    1. Thanks for pulling that, that station is about a mile from me, so pretty spot on. So far so good today. Had a quick water rise last night but we faired ok. Some others from what I can see on a down page did not. Late last night the water rise actually went down, maybe most ran off in that short period it fell? I anticipate today we may water table rise a bit, as it usually it delayed a tiny bit after the storm but we will see. If it doesn’t then that would be great,

      Hope all others faired well yesterday and thanks TK! Hope this week’s rains are more nuisance than substantial.

    2. Wow. Absolutely incredible. Thank you, Captain. And north so glad you are holding your own but the numbers are just unreal

  13. To me, this pattern is reminiscent of 14 years ago when Taunton and this area had major flooding at the end of March, we had record-breaking rains for March, 2010 (16.83″) with storms on March 23 (2.55″) and March 29-31 (7.03″). Parts of Taunton were closed because the Taunton and Mill Rivers overflowed their banks and roads were washed out along the South Coast.

    1. I remember it well. We had just moved into this house. It has a very small concrete hole with a pump in it. The previous owners said they had never had water. I was flooded twice that month. We put in a french drain system in a short time later with a much bigger sump pump hole. Since then it keeps up with most of the events but the amount of extreme events recently is staggering. Our friend the volcano as TK says!

  14. I’m curious on thoughts for this video captured by my next door neighbors camera last night. It was just as heavy rain stopped and moon broke through.

    This is a street over from me. There is a good size solar field. A animal hospital,horse barn and two houses.

    https://streamable.com/4fyjma

        2. My first reaction is a firework or a flare from neighbors? I also thought it was a transformer blowing up but there are no sparks that I can see.

      2. Definitely weird. I wondered if it could be from the solar field. My son just said it seems as if someone got hold of an old flare gun. That could be too.

    2. Flare, either gun or of the fireworks variety. I’ve seen them. They are like single shot roman candles if they are fireworks. Otherwise someone was having fun with some type of flare gun.

      1. Thank you.. That makes a lot of sense. There were two gun shots …separated by about 10 minutes….in that same area last week. There was no sound caught by camera For this one tho

        1. The gunshot sounds were probably also fireworks. Somebody has a small (illegal haha) collection it seems. 🙂 I smile because I might have a couple left that I never lit off … I’ll take them to NH! hahaha!

          1. We questioned whether they were fireworks or guns. But They were definitely gun shots. One officer and one gun enthusiast identified then But this is different. I’m thinking flare gun. Do Roman candles make a loud noise?

            I might know of a few family members who have a few leftovers too 😉

            1. I’ll bow to the experts on the gunshots. 🙂

              Roman candles typically make no noise other than a little fwump upon firing from the tube that you can’t hear if you are not very close by.

              Some roman candles can contain flares that have tiny “ladyfinger” firecrackers in them that might make a crackle sound as they are launched, but typically not.

  15. Good afternoon and thanks TK.

    36F here in Coventry and blustery. Final rain total was 2.67″ and we are up to 7.89″ on March and 17.25″ already for 2024.

  16. Some epic snow totals coming in from the ski areas up north..

    Sunday River, ME: 36″ storm total and 42″ in the past 7 days
    Sugarloaf, ME: 23″ storm total and 53″ in the past 7 days
    Loon, NH: 26″ storm total and 38″ in the past 7 days
    Killington, VT: 24″ storm total and 42″ in the last 7 days
    Jay Peak, VT 16″ storm total and 48″ in the past 7 days
    Stratton, VT: 28″ storm total
    Okemo, VT: 25″ storm total

    All areas 100% open and it doesnt look overly warm in NNE through the long range either. Should be shaping up to be one of the better spring skiing years in some time.

  18. 12z GFS and Canadian depicting another coastal storm late next week. The Canadian hammers VT with another 1-2 feet of snow and brings SNE another 2-4″ of rain.

    Surface:
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024032412&fh=132&dpdt=&mc=

    Total Kuchera Snow:
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024032412&fh=180&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps

    Total Rain:
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024032412&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  24. Quick thoughts on weather, now, later, and later still…

    Basic ideas in today’s discussion hold up well as today’s gone on.

    Today’s weather verified as expected with the gradual increase in sun as the earth’s rotation put the sun further and further west in the sky and away from the high cloud shield’s influence.

    Tomorrow I’m a little iffy on the lower clouds I mentioned. It may be too dry in lower levels. We’ll see how that goes. Either way we should still see more high clouds from the offshore unsettled weather.

    Tuesday and Wednesday we go into the unsettled zone again as the offshore low throws back that moisture and the incoming trough sends its own moisture our way and they basically “high-five” each other right over the Northeast.

    Wet pattern through Thursday, then Friday is where we see our guidance diverge. GFS/ECMWF like a wet start to Friday then low pressure getting far enough away that we dry out. The Canadian model is much different, with a full fledged rain/snow storm for New England on Friday. Will just have to monitor this.

    Final weekend of March: Still favoring a dry, chilly scenario.

    Beyond: Some people in SNE may use their snow shovels during the first 5 days of April.

      1. It’s funny, while the CFS I think does a good job with the overall pattern – every run of that model has a different surface scenario for April 8. I’m starting to get the feeling that we’ll be “ok” … but I’m far, far from convinced. It’s still so far away in terms of trying to forecast the % chance of clear enough sky to see it. But I’m focused on it.

      2. Friday may be dry. I’m only commenting on what the guidance shows at the moment. The entire thing could end up offshore.

  26. On my way to England on the 27th. I return on the 7th of April.

    It would be my luck to have it snow while I’m away.

    1. With today’s technology, you could still keep track with Boston like you always share with us Europe’s various weather events. Of course there’s nothing like experiencing it in person which I certainly understand. Who knows, you may just end up missing yet another series of boring rainstorms anyway. 🙂

      After all, it hasn’t snowed hardly all winter, why should April be any different? 😉

      1. Because the pattern is different. It just snowed a whole lot in New England. 🙂 And that pattern is around for a while as well.

    1. Boston is in SNE, right? 🙂

      I said some people in SNE may be using their snow removal equipment, but take that statement for what it is.

      I didn’t say people who live in Boston would definitely be. They may be. They may not be. It’s medium range weather we’re talking about. We’ll just have to wait and see. But let me put it this way, the upcoming pattern makes it more possible than it has been recently.

      1. yea more pissible, but that does not mean it will happeb. We shall see. I don”t want it from here on out, whicjh probably means we get hammered!

        1. Yes.

          I think we went 7 days in a row in January below avg temps.

          During the next 2-3 weeks, it might well be where we are below avg temps 80-90% of the time.

          Looks like the majority of our air will be coming from Canada, as opposed to coming from the Pacific.

          1. so, if things line up, watch out.
            even if it does, it could end like this last storm and most of sne spared. But would not take too much change in track to grt us. oh well, We wait and see.

            1. This would be a good pattern in mid winter for a series of plowable events. Obviously, harder to do that in SNE in early April.

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