Wednesday March 27 2024 Forecast (7:43AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

The final 5 days of the 3rd month of 2024 are covered in this portion of today’s blog forecast. Our unsettled stretch of weather will continue into Friday, and we may need to include additional unsettled weather previously not in the forecast for part of the weekend. Read on to see why. After yesterday’s chilly/raw feel with lots of drizzle around, that theme continued overnight into early this morning with areas of fog also around. The marine layer responsible will be somewhat stubborn to dislodge today, but eventually will give way to a milder and slightly drier southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front. This should limit or eliminate drizzle patches, allow the overcast to lift and possibly even develops some breaks, and in response the temperature to climb 10 or more degrees from yesterday’s chilly readings in many areas. This will be limited of course along the South Coast where a southerly air flow is a direct ocean breeze. The cold front ambles its way across our region from west to east tonight. While doing so it will induce scattered rain showers which will then increase in coverage overnight. This will be in response to a wave of low pressure forming and sending more moisture northward along the slowing frontal boundary, which will then sit offshore while low pressure moves up along it, giving us a steady period of rain Thursday and Thursday night. This rain, which is expected to amount to 1 to 3 inches total, will aggravate already existing flooding on some rivers and streams, and low lying swampy areas. The low pressure wave will intensify as it starts to pull away early Friday. The expecting timing is still that the first half of Friday will carry the highest chance of steady precipitation, mostly rain, but may mix with and turn to snow before ending especially in higher elevations north and west of Boston, and possibly closer to the coastal plain if precipitation is heavy enough toward the end of the event. The second half of Friday should feature a drying trend as the wind picks up behind the departing storm system. This dry but windy regime will then be with us through Saturday, with the atmospheric set-up being one that allows wind gusts up to or even over 40 MPH, especially in higher elevation locations. One uncertainty for the upcoming weekend: Watching a small low pressure disturbance that has been fairly consistently forecast by reliable medium range guidance. My thoughts have been that this system would pass harmlessly south of us on Sunday (which is Easter for those who celebrate). But some guidance insists that this system will clip our region early Sunday before moving on, and I can’t ignore this completely, so I’m cautiously adding the chance of a little precipitation to the early part of Sunday’s outlook to cover this possibility. These small systems can be hard to forecast in the northwest flow that we’ll have. I do expect, based on that timing, that the balance of Sunday would turn out dry, and less windy than Saturday. Additionally, the colder air deliver behind the late week storm system will be modest at best, so the weekend high temps will be OK for late March.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle during this morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon. Scattered rain showers enter southwestern NH and central MA late in the day. Highs 45-52 Cape Cod / South Coast region and immediate eastern coast, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind N to E under 10 MPH, shifting SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Steadier rain arrives overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind variable shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain and areas of fog. Highs 45-52, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and northwestern MA prior to dawn. Lows 35-42. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain favoring eastern areas, may be mixed with or even turn to wet snow in some areas before ending. Breaking clouds from west to east later. Highs 43-50. Wind N-NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, possibly to 40 MPH or even higher favoring the higher elevation locations.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH becoming W to variable up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy including the chance of light snow/mix/rain early. Partly sunny midday on. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

Unsettled weather windows April 2-3 and April 5 with potential rain/mix/snow depending on track of storm systems moving over or just south of the region while cold high pressure resides in eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Pattern remains cool but may shift to be somewhat drier, but still have to watch upper level low pressure that may keep the region unsettled. Will continue to monitor trends in regards to sky conditions for The April 8 solar eclipse, in which the path of totally crosses northern New England.

101 thoughts on “Wednesday March 27 2024 Forecast (7:43AM)”

  2. Thanks TK. Still looking for highest rain in southeastern Mass? I am flying out tomorrow morning. Do you expect any problems!

  5. The focus on the eclipse in the long range is obviously getting most of the attention, but there’s an event the day after that where weather could be important as well. That would be the home opener at Fenway.

    For the season opener tomorrow evening in Seattle, it’ll be raining and near 50, so expect the roof to be closed at T-Mobile Park.

  6. Thanks TK.

    TK – If this had been a more “normal” winter, would more of these recent rain events been snow events? Is this further evidence of climate change throughout the world? Not to mention that arctic air hasn’t been much of a staple around here this particular winter.

    1. Arctic air wasn’t a staple on our side of the hemisphere, but there was plenty of it on the other side of the hemisphere. I am thinking where it was, it was probably one of the coldest winters they have had.

      The paradox of having that cold air on our side of the hemisphere is that we probably would have received less precip.

      Cold air holds less moisture and also, if we have cold air around, that implies that there is somewhat less access to all the deep moisture that was brought up here this cold season. Our flow was off the Atlantic, the Gulf, even the southwest Pacific, but that won’t supply much cold air.

    2. Not necessarily, but possibly.

      However keep in mind it’s a very broad statement and the most recent event was quite a large snow event for parts of the region.

  10. Mark had posted the results of the 0Z gfs were had a laughable large snow event around these parts with 20-40 inches of snow!!!

    the event totally VANISHED with the 6Z run. So there you go!
    Will it reappear on the 12Z run? Time will tell. 🙂

    2. Interesting that rain events not only don’t disappear but actually overachieve, if anything. 😉

      NO DOUBT WHATSOEVER regarding tomorrow’s event, for instance! 🙁

  11. The Francis Scott Key Bridge was first constructed in 1972 and opened for traffic in 1977. The project was several years behind schedule and $33 million over budget.

    Is 5 years typical for bridge construction? I don’t know how long it took the Zakim/Bunker Hill Bridge to be completed but I did actually “walk” on it on opening day Sunday Oct. 6, 2002. 🙂

    I also “walked” inside the Ted Williams Tunnel on Sunday Aug. 25, 2002. 🙂

    On a weather related fact, both openings had very nice days if I recall. 🙂

      1. For laughs, here is the Kuchera snow out to hr 48.

        Bear in mind, the simulated temps are 35F-36F.

        But, I could see some areas seeing very wet snow Friday if the 2nd low hangs the precip around long enough.

  16. Not too caught up on the NAM snow totals.

    But, yes, if the Friday storm is closer and it will be intensifying, the upper levels will be cooling and any heavy precip would have a chance to mix with or change to wet snow, especially with elevation.

    NAM is 2.25-3 inches QPF region wide.

  24. Reminds me of a few weeks bag when the short range guidance failed. This one is like threading a needle. Anything that is different by 50 miles makes a big difference. It all depends how quickly it’s allowed to move east and the models need to get that just right. Sharp cutoff has always been there but the models are struggling with each run on that eastward movement.

    2. Well even as a SNOW Lover, I don’t WANT IT. Conclusion, break out the SNOW shovels for Friday!!!!

      I’d certainly trust the NAMS and HRRR over the GFS and GDPS

  27. To add to the discussion just above ……

    The further offshore GFS still has 2.5 inches of QPF in Boston and 2.2 to Providence.

    The lower GDPS is even still running 1.4 to almost 2″ region wide

    The further east ICON came much further west on big QPF

    I think the overall concencus is to expect at least 1-2″ and don’t be surprised if we approach 3 or a bit more.

    1. When does the heaviest rain hit? Seems like 2, or hopefully less, might be a good call for Natick. Could also be wishful thinking.

      1. I don’t know if there’s a heaviest time.

        Last weekend, for example, I think about 80-90% of the total rain fell in 4-6 hrs.

        This event, should it amount to big totals, at least it should fall over 24+ hrs. That could help.

  29. UKMET

    https://img.meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ukmet_amer_12/pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

    12Z Friday 984 MB

    850 MB temps indicate not snow near the coast

    https://img.meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_048_0850.gif

    976 MB once it goes by

    https://img.meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ukmet_amer_12/pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

    https://img.meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_060_0850.gif

    Somewhere between these 2 times it looks to SNOW in Boston!

    1. Euro is done and gone by 7-8 AM on Friday which would be great.
      Is it correct? ah, that is the question.

      1. Agreed !

        What’s nice about the Euro solution is, it shows the rain to expect from the frontal wave later tonight, into most of Thursday, 1-1.4 inches of rain, which, in and of itself, is enough.

        Lets hope we get away with that.

        The not good news is the Euro is largely on an island by itself as everything else has either a low, moderate or even high impact from the stronger Friday low.

  32. Quik 12z review on the upcoming rain event. No changes. 1-3 inches, heaviest southeast.

  33. To Vicki:

    I think the new CH 7 weather person came maybe from FOX. Not sure.

    Didn’t know about Matt Noyes.

    One of the CH 4 anchors is leaving.

    1. Oh my. Thank you re ch 7. And I had no idea abiut Matt eithrr.

      Wonder who is heading out on 4. Lots of changes.

  35. And my Mets are rained out already in Flushing, Queens tomorrow. So after what may have been the worst season weather wise in Mets history last year with multiple rainouts (even at Fenway) they pick right up where they left off with an Opening Day rainout. Splendid

    1. Well what did the IDIOTS expect, scheduling a baseball game in
      MARCH> I HOPE THEY ARE ALL RAINED OUT this month.
      Maybe then they will learn!!!!!

  38. Hope the trend is our friend. Seems like NWS, the euro etc are starting to show 1-2 inches for metro west. That’s a good rain but not like some of the other estimates I have seen lately.

  40. So it’s the NAMS against the rest. hmmm I wonder what wins out in that situation????? hmmmmm

  41. My money is NOT on the NAM with this upcoming storm system.
    Go with what the other guidance is showing.

    1. Well they are known for a cold bias, I do believe.
      A certain someone on this blog will certainly correct that
      if it is incorrect. 🙂

      AND…. you are likely correct, However, On occasion the NAM
      has been on an island by itself and WAS correct. 🙂 🙂

      Wouldn’t that be something??????????????

  43. Don’t be too quick to toss the NAM. A difference in BL temp of less than 1 degree F can be the difference between rain/mix, mix/snow, or significant snow accumulation.

    I kept that uncertainty in Friday’s forecast “in case”. I have my eye on it. I want to see a little more info before I make any confident adjustments to my Friday forecast.

      1. That is just the time of the end of the run at hour 84. Map is total precip through then. All the precip though is falling now thru Friday.

  51. Very interesting 0z Canadian run for early next week…

    All the models for that matter have an interesting evolution for early next week as a big -NAO block sets up. Could end up with a slow system that retrogrades or multiple areas of low pressure with cold air becoming involved and potential for accumulating snow .

  52. If I’ve tabulated correctly, Worcester is at 0.74, Logan at 0.24 and marshfield at .09

    This has been well modeled for the early part of the event with the expected first round of heavy rain in central areas.

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