Friday March 29 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)

136 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Low pressure wraps up and intensifies as it passes east of New England today and heads for Atlantic Canada. The area of rain over the region to start the day will exit from west to east, possibly mixed with wet snow in some areas, hanging on lastly for the South Shore and Cape Cod region, where it will exit by mid afternoon (SS) to late afternoon (CC). By the end of the day, breaks in the clouds, especially to the west, can allow a bit of sun, and the wind will be picking up as the air dries out. Our weekend looks mostly dry, but a quick-moving disturbance will send a batch of clouds through later Saturday into early Sunday (Easter for those celebrating). While some guidance shows a fairly solid swath of snow and rain passing through the region, moisture is going to be limited so any precipitation should be fairly light and not take all that long to cross the WHW forecast area. This should occur in a 6-hour window about 3 a.m. to 9 a.m. Sunday. The balance of Sunday sees an increase in sun, and a breeze, but not bad. High pressure brings fair weather Monday before the next low pressure system moves in Tuesday, coinciding with the arrival of colder air. This means when precipitation arrives, we may be talking about more than “just rain”. Timing and details are of course fuzzy this far out, so check coming updates for the fine-tuning process!

TODAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain favoring eastern areas, may be mixed with or even turn to wet snow in some areas before ending. Breaking clouds from west to east later. Highs 46-53. Wind N-NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, possibly to 40 MPH or even higher favoring the higher elevation locations.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some spotty light rain/sleet/snow possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH becoming W to variable up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy including the chance of light snow/mix/rain early. Partly sunny later morning on. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W-NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.,

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 31-38. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives late day or nighttime. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)

Midweek storm threat (rain/mix/snow). Drying trend later in the period. Temperatures below normal then moderating to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)

High pressure brings fair weather first part of period, then unsettled weather threat returns mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

136 thoughts on “Friday March 29 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  5. Thanks TK !

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024032900&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2024032900&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I had to run these as 48 hr totals and not total QPF because of I posted totals, far eastern areas would have been 3+ due to the end of today’s system.

    Regardless, this has the potential to drop copious amts of precip.

    Low projected pressures too, 960s to 970s.

  6. If it goes under us like the euro, precip and wind threats will maximize.

    If it redevelops or crosses over us, precip is still impactful but maybe southern New England has less impact on the front end wind.

    And yes, someone in either scenario probably gets an impactful heavy, wet snow storm.

    1. Interesting. According to that, precip should be heavy at the moment. It’s literally doing nothing here. Huh???

      1. Taunton last night explained it and it somewhat went over my head.

        I don’t think this is a warm process rain.

        And, at low levels, we are bringing in slightly drier air too.

        And with wet snow mixing in probably 500-1000 ft up, these echos might be seeing the big flakes.

        So, echoes of the same color can translate to vastly different precip rates depending on the meteorology of the storm.

  9. I’m glad you raised that radar look and what you were seeing Ace !

    This fascinated me.

    In the last storm, the yellow and red echos were good for .25-.50 per hour and in this long duration event, the yellows and red were worth .10-.20 per hour.

    This is an area understanding the warm processes and all that I want to learn a lot more about.

    1. Most interesting. Makes some sense for sure.

      Also, I might add that the echo elevation plays a role.
      The radar, I believe is at an angle of 0,5 degree tilt (according
      to my radar scope app). The farther away from the radar site,
      the higher altitude of the return echoes.

    2. Me too. The radar images I posted yesterday for north were off too. Is that all part of the same explanation

    1. Thanks JJ. I think that may be the storm that flooded Wayland CC. They also had duck boats moving people off Pelham island rd in Wayland.

  16. Vicki thank god I did not decide to make my appearance when that storm happened 40 years ago. It would have been tough for my mom and dad to get to the hospital. My grandmother went into labor with my Uncle during a snowstorm in January 1956. My great grandfather put the snow chains on my grandfather’s car so he and my grandmother could get to the hospital.

    1. Oh my. Scary for your grandparents. And I’m glad you waited. My son arrived 15 days before on his due date thank heavens.

  17. Thank you, TK!

    Think we may have hit the jackpot here with 2.42.”
    The sump pump and French drain are holding!

        1. We are off 🙂

          48 days to go …..,.. 10 to April break, another 25 to Memorial Day Weekend and a final 13 days to June 13th.

          1. (Not that you’re counting, hehehe!) 🙂

            Q3 ends Wednesday. I have only 21 classes left with my seniors (our classes don’t meet every school day). Graduation is June 1. Our last day of school (with one snow day) is Friday, June 14.

  18. When we get the large precip drops, some of them are making it as wet snow flakes.

    Extremely noticeable on the car windshield.

      2. I don’t get distracted driving by modern technology, never do I deal with my phone while driving.

        But when it’s that borderline rain snow look of the drops, I am definitely distracted 🙂

  19. Enjoying day 2 of good weather in Bermuda but wondering how much rain fell in Natick area. Thanks, TK.

  20. Here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound we’re up to 2.50″ for this storm, which puts us at 6.59″ for the week, and 11.18″ for the month of March, and the rain is still falling lightly.

  22. How realistic is accumulating snow for next week? I’d be less concerned if it was like 10 days away.

    1. Low elevations in SE New England, I think the bigger thing to eye is total precip potential.

      Snow: sure, if this setup verifies, possibly in the air and if it’s at nice, on grass, trees, etc.

      12z GFS doing a stall and loop around Cape Cod. Guessing it’s vertically stacked, which should, in theory increase wet snow chances, at least in the air at some point.

        1. Too soon for temps.
          Cold air comes from above and is poorly modeled days in advance. This would be an intensity issue.

  25. Early April, snow depth change maps are worth a look.

    These pressures, 970s, this has a chance at a high impact event with an E or NE wind on the mass east coast, especially if the low ends up just under us.

  28. I have been thinking since I am going to be 40 in less than three weeks of all the big weather events in my life so far that I have experienced.
    July 10, 1989 northeast severe weather outbreak, Superstorm March 1993, Blizzard of 1996, April Fools Storm 1997 Presidents Day Storm 2003 Post Christmas Blizzard 2010 which started a six week snow blitz Blizzard 2013 overnight severe weather outbreak February 2016

    1. Cool recap. And that is an impressive list. I’ll send to my son ….although I think he still remembers having to postpone his ninth birthday in 1993.

        1. I wondered if they didn’t impact you as much. Did the June 1, 2011? Tornado outbreak impact CT? I cannot remember. And I think both you and my son were too young to remember Gloria or Bob.

          1. Most of CT was under a tornado watch on June 1, 2011.
            The tornado that came through Springfield stay just north of the CT boarder. Parts of the CT boarder were under a tornado warning in case there was a shift into far northern CT. The Springfield tornado was the first tornado I saw on live television in New England. I won’t forget the tornado coming through the CT River and heading into downtown Springfield.

  29. Thanks TK.

    We are at Killington today. Filtered sun here and approaching 40 at the base. Was a bit crusty on the trails earlier but the snow is starting to soften up nicely now. Still lots of snow up here and a good base. Likely will be back to 100% open next week if the models are correct….

  30. 12z models all continuing to support a major, long duration northeast snowstorm next week. Potential is certainly there for plowable snow right down to the south coast. Going to be an interesting few days ahead tracking this. Some of the model storm depictions would be historic for early April.

  31. In my town last week they had the sweepers out cleaning the roads. Why you don’t wait until the second week of April to do that is mind boggling to me

  32. This next event could be an ally at getting a sunny day on April 8th, especially if the low bogs down from April 4th – 6th. Maybe a ridge of high pressure arriving the 7th and into the 8th ??

    1. This is the first time this “snow season” that 3 major models have all signaled impactful frozen precip event this far in advance.

      1. Agree. So what does this mean? That is is MORE likely, but NOTHING is a CERTAINTY yet. 🙂
        We’ll be watching.

        1. Well I’ve talked to 3 colleagues so far who are all “concerned” that SNE finally gets hit.

          1. thank you. Concerned, yes. Can any of them say with certainty we get hit?

            Since I don’t want it, Almost certain that we get nailed!!!
            🙂

  35. Re: Street sweepers, or as I playfully call them, “sweet streepers”. They used to show up around April vacation in the past. Now, March. Not sure why. During the + phase of the AMO we have been experiencing colder and sometimes snowier springs, and many times this cleanup work was erased by road treatment and had to be done over.

      1. Be careful what you are confident about with no meteorology applied whatsoever on something 6 days out. 😉

    2. Actually he has it for Wednesday. All of the major guidance operational runs and most of their ensembles currently show the system as rain on Wednesday before flipping over to significant snow Wednesday night / Thursday.

      1. Indeed he does. My bad. I stand corrected. A really good reason to post a link. Makes sense, especially with Pete’s tweet.

  41. Unless I’m reading incorrectly…that is 17 here too. Seriously. I have waited patiently (sort of). May it be so

          1. I think all our Mets are exceptional. As everyone knows Pete, JR, Eric are my go to Mets. In that order but not a huge space between. Mike might just come close in their heels but I generally do not watch 5

              1. Hmm my post evaporated. I don’t watch news. I watch only forecasts. But if I am looking for a news story I go to wbz

  44. Took a ride to Bridgewater tonight.

    I think it’s rte 104, where Halifax becomes Bridgewater.

    There’s a lake so high that its waters are onto one lane of 104.

    And here and there, but more than usual, there are running streams of water on the sides of the roads. Some of these are probably from sub pumps.

    And plenty of small standing areas of water in yards, etc that usually don’t have water in them.

    1. Noticed that too all around our town today too. Just streams of water coming out of grassy areas. The river I watch online in Norton crested tonight and will start slowly falling probably later tonight. With the next system containing quite a bit of moisture, won’t be much time to recover.

      There are graphs like this for many of the rivers around. Notice last Saturday’s run up of over 3 ft after we had 3 1/2 inches in our town which is a couple of towns over from this river gauge.

      https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01109000/#parameterCode=00065&period=P7D&showMedian=true

    1. ??? 0z Euro and Canadian both had double digit snows in Boston. Are you referring to the 6z GFS which is a bit closer to the coast? What are the ensembles showing (I haven’t had a chance to look yet)?

      We know this is going to start as rain, the fun starts when the coastal low takes over in the second half of the storm. Someone in New England is going to get crushed either way.

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