Sunday March 31 2024 Forecast (8:37AM)

146 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

It’s the final day of March, and for those celebrating, it’s Easter Sunday! Today’s going to be a pretty nice early spring day across our area. A small disturbance passed through the region overnight but exits first thing this morning with lingering clouds. Then we will have an interval of sun before fair-weather clouds pop up during the afternoon and share the sky with the sun. It’ll be rather mild for the final day of March despite a bit of a breeze, although it will be less windy than Saturday was. Enjoy this final day of March, because as we welcome April, we’re going to get into a complex set-up that also leads to unsettled weather a good deal of the coming week. There’s still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the details of the stormy weather that’s due to impact the region. This is the general breakdown… First, an initial wave of low pressure moves out just south of the region later Monday, throwing a deck of clouds across our sky. Might it precipitate from this? Possibly, but there’s a good chance it may be just too far south to do much, so I’m going with the clouds but a mostly dry forecast for Monday. An extension of high pressure from eastern Canada noses in for Tuesday. We’ll still have a fair amount of cloudiness but the daytime should be dry. It’s Tuesday night and Wednesday that we’ll become involved with the main precipitation shield of a final storm system – one in which a parent low will move into the southern Great Lakes with a secondary forming near the northern Middle Atlantic coast and moving up into or just south of New England. The track of this storm will determine precipitation timing, intensity, and type, as we’ll be on the border of some air cold enough to produce snow. Odds favor more snow inland and with elevation based on the current expected set-up, but a slightly further south secondary storm would allow the colder air and snow opportunity to be further south and east, so we’ll have to watch this very closely for later Wednesday into Thursday.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun, which then gives way to a sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds. Highs 49-56, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow likely. Temperatures start 38-45 then slowly fall. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH, gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Overcast with rain/mix/snow likely. Temperatures steady in 30s. wind E-NE 15-25 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)

Early period lingering storm impacts the region with clouds, wind, and some precipitation lingering, then a drying trend as high pressure builds in. Still a favorable outlook at this time for solar eclipse viewing April 8. Temperatures below normal early period, trending milder thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)

Unsettled weather returns early to mid period with a low pressure trough. High pressure builds in late period with fair weather again. Temperatures near to above normal.

146 thoughts on “Sunday March 31 2024 Forecast (8:37AM)”

  4. TK, great writeup. What does further inland and with elevation mean for areas? More northern MA?

    1. It could mean either or all. At this point, further north is favored, but further south is not excluded either.

  5. Copied from end of yesterday’s post.

    Happy Easter to those who celebrate.

    Before getting to us, our midweek storm has a dangerous side to it, especially tomorrow and then further east Tuesday.

    Here’s SPC’s tornado outlook for tomorrow.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

    Tom
    MARCH 31, 2024 AT 8:42 AM
    00z GEFS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2024033100&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Mean snow and QPF

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024033100&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024033100&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  7. Good morning all and happy easter.

    Watching the progression of this potential storm – really hoping that it doesn’t muster enough strength to be powerful and is just another rainstorm for my area.

  8. Thanks TK. Happy Easter to all who celebrate. Is it sad that I think 2 inches of precip is a small storm now…..

  10. Thanks TK! Happy Easter and I will use this small window to celebrate what a nice day it was yesterday – even though breezy – and the expected nice day today before I go back to griping how miserable it will be all week!

  12. Ch5 has unlikely snow accumulation Boston / south with 2 plus inches of rain . North & higher elevation is likely for accumulation snow . In my opinion if this is correct I sure hope no strong wind is involved as that won’t be good .

    1. Me too.

      Snow or no snow, I’ll enjoy that either way.

      Stakes are high on how this evolves on:

      1) total QPF, 1-1.5 inches if it comes together later vs 2-3 inches of it phases earlier and it’s underneath us

      2) coastal flood threat. Later phase, less, earlier phase and underneath us, more problematic.

      3) if ever it’s the earlier phasing and underneath us, even you and I will deal with some snow sometime in the middle to almost the end of the event, then probably ending as mix/rain.

      Have a great day in Maine.

  13. Yesterday was a weather gem.

    And by mid afternoon, I fealt all that sun even took the chill away.

  14. Good morning and thank you TK.

    57 here yesterday and despite the wind it was a lovely day.

    I am not all wound up about snow with this next system. Canadian and then Icon most robust with snow totals. Gfs is all rain and the Euro is a rain/mix fest as is the Ukmet.
    Nams just coming into range.
    12z run should tell us sonething.

  15. Thanks TK and Happy Easter. Watching storm updates and wish I could extend our trip until storms are done. Beautiful in Bermuda.

  16. Thanks TK and Happy Easter.

    Still a big difference between the GFS operational and GFS ensemble mean for the midweek storm.

    6z GFS Op has the low over southern NH:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024033106&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6z GEFS has the center SE of the Cape:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2024033106&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Big difference in outcomes there between those two solutions.

    Both of these images are for 12z Thursday / 8am.

    1. The GFS op run has been like the old ECMWF was – too amplified, to cut off, too far north and west, with many solutions.

    1. You are correct! Thank you Vicki.

      I always think of our anniversary as being on April Fools’ Day Eve 🙂 Also, this is the third time that our anniversary has been on Easter. Barring some sort of miraculous medical breakthrough, it’s also the last time. The next such year is 2086!

    2. Dang – it’s two hours later and now I have the right response:

      Uh-oh! You’re correct Vicki. Does anyone know where I can buy something made of silver on Easter?! 🙂

  18. Well today I saw a TV met snow map delineating areas for “plowable” and “non-plowable” amounts. Didn’t expect to see that at all at this point.

    2. I sure would not expect that either. Most of the ones I’ve watched are more cautionary as is TK which to me makes sense. I did see one that was more specific and it surprised me also. I will add that I love Pete on NBC10 (he’s not on today) but I detest its weather website.

  20. Because Easter is a movable feast, weather can be all over the place for the holiday. I do remember a 9″ snowfall on Easter, 1970. (March 29). Six years later (April 18), it was 94 degrees.
    And, of course, it was a beautiful 63 degrees on Easter, 1997 (March 30) before the great April Fools Day Blizzard.
    I remember Channel 6 in Providence running “Blizzard Warnings” on a scroll during its programming on Easter and I was saying that it was not right using news as an April Fools joke!

  21. I know “thou shall not trust the NAM” at hour 84 but the 6z run had the primary low at that time dying out over southern MI and the coastal low already formed east of Atlantic City with snow Boston north already occurring. Conversely the GFS still has a strong primary low over northern MI at that time and the coastal hasn’t even formed yet.

    Again, big difference there. The NAM would be good for snow in SNE I think if the run extended further. The farther south and weaker that primary is, and the sooner that coastal takes over, the better.

    12z NAM is running now…

  23. NAM: Too far in the future to be reliable, but the scenario it shows is not entirely unreasonable. The NAM (both but especially the 3km) has been a little too aggressive with snow of late, so be cautious while it’s still beyond 48 hours.

    ICON: Forget this craptacular model. It’s already got TOO much primary in the Great Lakes. That will kill the rest of this run. Into the trash with ya!

    I’ll make quick comments on the 3 major global models (US, Canadian, Euro) when I can.

        1. Ch 5 is REALLY downplaying this and has been ALL along.
          hey, they may end up being 100% correct, BUT they could
          end up looking like FOOLS!!!!

          2. I don’t mind marking where there will be less snow. I do think it is not quite right to say it is unlikely. Along the coast has the potential to be a real problem. I am a firm believer in preparing and finding out I didn’t need to bs not preparing and wishing I had.

            1. Adding. I thought it was Wcvb Longshot was mentioning since it was more definitive than WBZ. But since I know ssk is a fan of 5 didn’t post the maps that I’d saved. Everyone has favorites which is how it should be

              2. “The coast” is a pretty broad statement and this may not apply for the entire coastal area.

                Nobody, not you, not even the professionals, can count out coastal snow issues at this point. However, I do agree with the statement of wind/wave battery being a problem. Rain will be an issue as it drains more immediately. Areas that end up with snow have a slower melt/drain, which can limit issues somewhat, though not eliminate them.

                Forecasting is not done by gut feeling. It’s done by applying the scientific method.

  28. Thank you, TK.

    Happy Easter to all that celebrate. Your lord (messiah) has risen.

    Easter is a HUGE holiday in Europe, despite most of Western Europe being secular and not religious. It’s a vestige of the past in which Maundy Thursday, Good Friday and Easter Monday were national holidays. Good Friday and Easter Monday are still national holidays here.

    1. Happy Easter with wishes for a wonderful trip for you.

      Interestingly, Easter is not a national holiday in the United States.

  29. I haven’t seen many TV folks yet, but my take on Ch 5 isn’t so much downplaying it as going the cautious route, which is not unwise still a few days ahead of the event.

    Also, I saw Ch 4’s map. It’s not hype IN ANY WAY. It’s an early outlook on what parts of the area have a higher vs. lower risk of plowable snow. Nothing wrong with it.

    Even the 1997 event was not seen as “a big deal” until it was nearly underway, and even then some of the snow totals were underestimated. This set-up, while not identical, is similar.

    Quick comment on global models from 12z (so far) that I haven’t already touched upon…

    GFS: The ensemble mean is considerably further south and east with the low’s track than the operational run is.

    GDPS: Closer to a realistic scenario, but maybe a little overdone on the snow. Maybe.

    Commentary on the ECMWF later…

      1. That is correct. The only true hype posts I have seen have come from those not really qualified to post information for the public. You know what I mean by that. 🙂

        1. I do know. I’ve said before but worth repeating….we have the best meteorologists in the business.

    2. Hmmm I don’t remember who I watched the night before, but
      I KNEW the night before that the 1997 storm was going to be a biggie! I absolutely knew the night before that 2 feet was in play. 🙂 I pretty sure the Met hinted that it could be big Else, I just took it upon myself to allow the 2 foot projection??? 🙂 🙂 🙂

      C’MON NAM!! KNOCK IT OUT OF THE PARK!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
      Coming from someone who claims they don’t want it to SNOW!!!

  30. It’s fun to watch the models try to resolve the upper level energy in this event and when it all lines up. Just within 1 model, some of the consecutive runs are not consistent.

      1. Thank you both. We had a wonderful time. I hope everyone did. Tom, if I’m not mistaken. You celebrate May 5?

  33. I agree that the TV mets have been cautious. Not one is trying to take a stab at amounts … it’ll be different on social media.

    Storm looks like it will be hanging around here for a while … like 36+ hours or maybe I’m looking at it the wrong way.

  34. Well, the 12Z EURO shows 75% LESS frozen for Boston than
    the 0Z did. So the trend with the Euro is MOST definitely
    towards RAIN! We shall see as there are a few more days for things to evolve.

    Based on this whole past season (I don’t care if the current pattern is more favorable), I’d say this storm is likely a SNOW
    TEASE and will end up predominately rain in SNE, especially near the coast. Yes, time for this to change, but not looking that way.

    Now watch the 18z NAM come in with a MONSTER snow storm. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I hat this yes/no/yes/no/maybe/no/maybe/yes/maybe/now
    Crap!

    So what’s is gonna be boy?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C11MzbEcHlw

  35. 12z Euro 10:1 Snowmap:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024033112&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full

    Again, take it with a grain of salt because it is 10:1 but it shows the favored areas for accumulating snow/mix on this run.

    One thing high confidence at this point and consistent from run to run….another big dump for the ski areas in VT, NH and ME and the Berks and Worcester Hills are looking good too.

    Retrac best be stretching his legs for a little walk 🙂

    1. One thing for sure, the chances of significant snow in Boston and points S&E are getting less likely. NOT non-zero chance, but a smaller chance with each run.

      Waiting on the NAM to see what it has to say. 🙂

  37. Not that I can tell much, but the 18Z NAM Looks DIFFERENT
    than the 12Z NAM.
    Primary is over NE Ohio on the 18Z run while it was over S to SW Ohio on the 12Z run.

    We shall see. 🙂

      1. I am just NOT impressed at all.
        Could it change? Sure, but I think our snow chances have flown out the window. 🙂

        1. Actually too early to decide that on a one-run jump. We’re still 3+ days from this. The NAM is not strong in that time range.

          1. I understand that, but I have a pretty strong feeling
            this thing has flown the coup for SNE. Of course, will continue to watch. 🙂

      2. NAM has definitely continued the trend today that the other models are showing. Holding on to a strong primary too long which delays the development of the coastal and causes it to track too far NW.

        Far from the final solution though at 4 days out…..

      1. My kids had secret parties here when they were in high school which stretched capacity limits for even a ballroom. (so I’ve heard)

        1. It sure is. I’m not a stranger to web site design. It was my main job after I started my business. I created Todd gross’s weather spotter web site.

        1. I’ll never be able to tell you how much I admire you for taking the time to put the maps together

      1. How can you call something correct that hasn’t occurred yet? Remember we let an event occur before we verify it? 😉

        1. How is it not correct . Is Boston getting accumulating snow midweek? Or are we getting a soaker . They have had a pretty good handle on it In my opinion, just saying

          1. Has the event occurred yet?

            This has nothing to do with who is saying what. Has the event occurred yet? Yes or no?

  42. I always come to these threads to see jpdave go through the five stages of grief with each storm.

    Denial: “We’re still X amount of days out. This can change.” Anger: “@@@&&$&!$&@! CUTTER SYSTEMS!” Bargaining: “maybe we’ll get a couple inches out of it!” Depression: “It’s going to be rain isn’t it?” Acceptance: “There’s always next winter.”

    2. I absolutely love it. I’m not sure what we’d be without many here but I’d hate to think of this blog without JPD.

  43. The snow projections are fun to track and those areas that get hit, that will be fun having it happen in early April.

    In my opinion, the number 1 issue with this next system is how much precip. It’s affecting many out there. Many of the instances of still running water on the sides of streets are probably what’s coming out of people’s basements.

      1. Good luck with the fireplace this week.

        My brother-in-law was helping his good friend empty his basement to save items from the water coming in. And, in anticipation of what is ahead.

      2. Better get ready for quite a bit this time. You’d have fared better in that department with a snow event.

  44. It’s not now, but have to wonder what a slow moving hurricane/tropical storm, even a depression, with access to above avg SST’s and the Tonga effect, could drop for rain totals this coming summer/early fall.

  45. The 924 hour European model forecast says we’ll be trending seasonably mild and dry. 😉

  46. Not sure if anyone posted this already, but it’s more info about Matt & Danielle Noyes upcoming adventure…

    https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/03/28/whats-next-for-meteorologist-matt-noyes-after-leaving-nbc10-a-new-beginning/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_content=fb-bostonherald&fbclid=IwAR0jxVQwAhvQHZ-m3Q3nios1jGc1Ck5T54mw1ZOcvlhSasFUSpTvtxw3WZQ_aem_AUrlCPgmsoaqjke4m020fplYkAwyY43IMgnbx_urGJNg_eMhHl6WeGR2DRNs0NgZGtB6X2olYnv1kAZ1-Dvi3Hxz

    1. Wow. Cool. I’ve tried a few apps …not because I believe them but because I wanted to be sure when I say they just are not accurate.

      If you or anyone happens to see the name of Matt’s app, please share here. Thanks for posting this TK

      1. I’m really happy he’s doing this. I hope it’s the beginning of the age of improving weather apps. I wish them much success. 🙂

  47. 0z NAM is putrid…..well NW of its previous run and looks a lot like the last couple runs of the GFS. Keeps the primary low stronger for longer, resulting in the secondary low tracking up the CT River Valley….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024040100&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam

    Only good news with this scenario would be a shorter period of rain up front and then all of SNE would dry slot. This would cut down on total precip totals.

      1. Definitely not. Still in the NAM’s long range so I do not trust it yet. I think it and the GFS are too far NW.

      2. I have my sleeping bag ready and will appear at his house with a bottle of Caymus or case of Tree House, whatever his preference.

        1. All right then. I’m packing. And I’ll bring a bottle of Macallen 12 but only if retrac approves. I can adapt easily if not.

  51. This seemed like a northern England system from the get go, last weeks was fun up in Maine. I couldn’t believe it was 23 degrees and snowing. Haven’t seen that in a while.

    Mil remarkably is hanging tough against all odds, we thought she would pass last week. They keep telling us today today, she’s clearly not ready. Though for everyone’s sake I wish it would happen yesterday.

    1. It’s a difficult process, Hadi. I know exactly what you mean.

      My mother hung in there for a while, too. In hindsight it was too long as she was suffering.

      People have told me repeatedly that “death is a process … it is part of life.” Yes, I agree. But that doesn’t make the process less painful. I really have a hard time seeing a person die. It cripples me figuratively, frankly. If I believed in a hereafter (I do not) it would make things easier, perhaps.

  52. Just checked all of the models.
    YUCK, YUCK and more YUCK!!!!

    6Z GFS has ticked more SE, but NOT enough. PUTRID!
    Euro putrid
    Nam putrid
    UKMET Putrid
    ICON getting there, but still putrid

    CANADIAN delivers a major snowstorm with 17 inches kuchera for Boston.

    Is there any possibility in this world that the Canadian is correct? Likely NOT, but????????????????????????????????
    Stranger things have happened. NAH….Ain’t happening.

    Now let’s see what the 12z runs bring us. 🙂
    Should be a HOOT.

  53. My only complaints on my trip are:

    1. It’s VERY muddy in the parks, on the paths and other places I live to walk and run. Just so much rain in recent months and not much evaporation or drying out.

    2. It’s crowded everywhere and not just in the city. We Americans don’t know how very lucky we are to have space and lots of it compared to so many of our peers. I’m talking simple things like wide sidewalks and common areas (eg, stairs) in buildings. Gosh, even our public transportation (trains and buses) is wider and provides much more room to passengers. I often feel cramped in stores here and I really never feel that way in America. And this doesn’t just apply to a state like Wyoming. It also applies to densely populated Massachusetts.

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