Tuesday April 2 2024 Forecast (7:19AM)

145 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)

A midweek storm will bother us with wind and a variety of precipitation. It’s to be a slow process both in and out. Today clouds thicken up and rain approaches, making it into areas west and south of Boston later in the day, but drying up somewhat as it pushes northeastward through evening. Renewed precipitation arrives overnight and Wednesday, mainly in the form of rain though some sleet/snow can start to mix in over higher elevations to the north and west as we go through the day. Just enough cold air is around so that sleet/snow will be an issue in northern MA and southern NH at times, with the greatest threat of accumulating snow favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH Wednesday night into Thursday before precipitation tapers off to rain/snow showers, which will linger through Friday as low pressure will be slow to start pulling away. In fact, this low will still be impacting us into the start of the weekend with lots of clouds and maybe a few lingering rain showers. During the storm, especially Wednesday and early Thursday, expect fairly strong winds along the coast and some threat of coastal flooding as well. One potential surprise factor: Since temperatures in the atmosphere are very marginal, slightly heavier precipitation or a slightly further southeast low pressure track can pull the frozen precipitation area further east and south, so that will be something to monitor closely.

TODAY: Partial sun early, then cloudy. Later-day rain south central MA, eastern CT, RI, into southeastern MA. Highs 42-49, coolest in eastern coastal locations. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light rain, may mix with wet snow some interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow likely. Highs 38-45 but may fall slowly during the day. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH, gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, may mix with or turn to sleet/snow at times favoring north central MA and southern NH. Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Steady precipitation tapers to rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45, may spike to 45-52 Cape Cod. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast but may become variable Cape Cod, higher gusts probable.

THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with additional rain/snow showers. Temperatures generally steady 38-45. Wind variable becoming N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Lots of clouds. A few rain/snow showers Friday night and a few rain showers Saturday. Lows 30-37 Friday night. Highs 41-48 Saturday. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)

Clearing trend to finish the weekend April 7. High pressure and fair weather April 8-9. Favorable sky conditions expected for solar eclipse viewing on April 8 (partial but greater than 90% coverage for WHW forecast areas while path of totality crosses far northern New England). Unsettled weather potential later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)

A more west-to-east flow means variable temperatures and weaker weather systems to pass through, including a couple rain shower threats.

145 thoughts on “Tuesday April 2 2024 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank uou TK.
    What do you make of the hi res models depiction of a sleet fest, even in Boston?

    Could be an interesting time ahead. even the Nams and the gfs have it and some snow.

    1. Maybe a level of dry air somewhere in the 700-900 mb part of the column, to allow for evaporative cooling and create that layer cool enough to cause sleet ?????

  6. It doesn’t sound “urgent” in my discussion, but the surprise factor is there.

    The fact some guidance has shifted cold enough to bring accumulating snow nearly to the South Coast is nothing to be completely ignored. Watch short range trends today.

    1. Oh, I have been watching very closely.
      If there is a surprise, we can thank our friends in Eastern Canada!

      1. Actually, if something happens, it really won’t be a surprise at all because we are tuned into that possibility. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t. 🙂

        1. In summer, most times, it doesn’t hit 100F.

          But, that doesn’t mean there is no chance of it not happening.

          Its more likely it won’t hit 100F, but on occasion, it does.

          In this system, there is enough cold air and dynamics, that there is some chance it could work out to snow even for a bit here.

          Its more likely it will rain, but, there’s a small opportunity for a surprise.

          No one is saying snow is likely, but there’s a small chance it could happen.

          And if its all rain all the way to Concord, NH, the mentioning that it could have snow was not an out there statement.

  10. Waiting on the 12Z runs, HRRR will be first up.
    I want to see if it STICKS to the Sleet fest change to snow idea
    or goes back to RAIN.

  11. Thank you Tk.

    Frankly I rather it snow. Another 2-3 inches of rain is not good for the basement.

  12. First observation from the 12Z hrrr. It seems to have the primary
    system farther East. Let’s see how that translates for the rest
    of the event. 🙂

    1. A couple of tornado-warned storms in central Kentucky already this morning. Activity starting to flare up in western Tennessee.
      A number of Tennessee county school districts are closed or have early dismissals today.

    1. At 700mb, the temps are -1 to 0C, so somewhere around that level, the snow flakes would melt to rain drops.

      But 850mb, its -6 to -7C. So, there’s where the rain drops re-freeze.

      The sfc is only 35F and unfortunately, HRRR doesn’t give 925 mb temps, but I’d bet they would be -1 to -3C.

      IF the HRRR has the column temps correct, then I could see sleet issues on the 1/3rd to 1/2 way point in the event, even to Boston.

      1. Yup and the RRFS A confirms that, then some!

        I am getting the DISTINCT impression, that this will NOT
        be an all RAIN event. 🙂

    2. Matt is excellent and I have always enjoyed how he presents his forecasts. Looking forward to seeing more of these.

      1. I was thinking the same. I tried to subscribe to him on YouTube but failed. I rarely use FB so will get a grand to help. I do follow him on FB.

    3. Too bad there couldn’t be a half hour presentation nightly
      on some cable channel. I know it would NEVER happen on broadcast TV. OR even a Matt Noyes Pod Cast of some sort.
      For all we know, he has that in the plans OR a discussion like
      this WILL be part of his app?

      I can’t wait! SIGN ME UP!!!!

  20. The NAM has the same temp profile aloft, as the HRRR.

    The mild nose is around 700 mb, with it well below freezing at 850 mb and a bit below at 925 mb.

    The NAM in the column is a little milder than the HRRR

  21. The NAM has a warm layer between 700mb and 750mb between hours 42 and 54. At hours 48 and 51 it extends down to 775mb. It is below freezing from that point all the way to 975mb, then above freezing from there to the surface.

  22. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024040212&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024040212&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    East coast Mass high tide is at 7:40am tomorrow.

    Norton NWS has done a nice job at the bottom of its discussion re: coastal flooding. It looks like a surge of anywhere btwn 2 and a max of 3 ft or slightly more might line up to the high tide. They mention minor to perhaps a few possible instances of moderate flooding.

  25. Just want to toss this in while there is a short break.

    Thank you all for your links and comments. This is so much fun

    1. Agree. The roller coaster is insane.

      But, it sure does look like sleet/snow is in the Mix from Boston N&W. South of Boston, not so much. 🙂

        1. Sleet generally bounces off of trees and does not accumulate. It’s when it flips to snow you need be concerned. 🙂

    1. I am on prep and was watching live coverage on a local Charleston TV station. All students and staff in schools in a particular WV county are in their tornado school shelters!

  32. Thanks, TK.

    I’m enjoying the filtered sunlight while we have it; it looks pretty soggy for getting around during the next few days.

  33. Btwn the lowering pressure and a decent onshore flow tomorrow morning thru high tide, I think there might be more than just a few cases of moderate flooding.

    1. Hoping everything continues to back off – snow at this time of year always seems like a bad proposition for trees.

  37. Just my personal opinion …..

    I think from Manchester, NH to Boston, MA a reasonable forecast now is rain developing and wed night, mixing with sleet and turning to all sleet in heavier episodes of precip.

    And then Thurs morning, sleet ending around the Mass Pike and in southern NH and northern MA, sleet possibly mixing with a little snow before ending.

    And, in these locations, any light precip times would be rain or rain sleet mix

  38. I just got the usual pre-storm email from Unitil (We give up already!):

    According to the most recent forecast, as many as 6-10 flakes of snow are possible in inland areas within Unitil’s service region as well as wind gusts of 4-5 mph during the peak hours of the storm Wednesday night and into Thursday. While snowflake totals may be lower in coastal areas as rain mixes in, wind gusts may reach 6 mph in these regions, and overall snowflake consistency may be wetter and heavier in nature. Wet, heavy snowflakes have the potential to weigh down trees and tree branches, pulling them into electric infrastructure and causing outages.

  39. If I may ask for a positive thought or prayer. My niece (Mac’s twins oldest) is being induced this am for her twins. She is carrying them in separate uteruses. One of the babies is not gaining as it should and has too little amniotic fluid.

    Thank you. And if I’m a bit jumpy today, I sincerely apologize.

  42. That mild nose at 700-750 mb really might inhibit snow a good part of Wednesday night from Manchester NH southward. But, sweet definitely in play, how far south.

    The whole column cools Thursday, but not much precip and a boundary layer moderated by the April sun probably does in snow during the daytime.

    So, I’m intrigued by the sleet option in southern NH to the mass like maybe, but think snow is hooksett/concord NH northward Wednesday overnight, north of that mild layer in the mid levels.

    2. I think you nailed it. In the end, the sleet could reach to Boston or a little south, but could easily only extend to a little North of Boston and leave the city out. Impossible to know for sure.
      Could go either way.

      any snow in and around the city would be quite limited for all the reasons you stated above. 🙂 UNLESS it flips to snow over night Wed and with some intensity. 🙂

  44. Glancing at the 12z, my forecast above stands, but with the caveat that it’s not going to take much to drag frozen precipitation further south and east, possibly by a considerable distance.

    Interestingly enough my colleague and I are coming at this from 2 different angles. He’s forecasting 10+ inches of snow for Portsmouth NH while my forecast is for under 2 inches there. 🙂

      1. I’ve shared stuff from him before, but he’s never written on this blog. 🙂 He’s the mysterious anonymous colleague. Actually went to college together and we’ve known each other for nearly 4 decades.

  46. Earlu obs of 18Z HRRR
    at hour 28 the secondary is 5 mb stronger than at the same
    time on the 12Z run.

    Translation to sensible weather here? Who knows. 🙂

        1. At least 0.7 inch of qpf falls as SLEET in Boston from 0Z
          to 5Z, That would be damn close to an INCH of sleet depending on pellet size and spacing.

                1. By 10Z or so, Boston gets dry slotted and the sleet comes to an end. Any light precip becomes rain.

  48. Sleet comes back to about Boston for one last period of heavier sleet. I just read where sleet could have a ratio of as high as 4 to 1. I don’t believe that. 2 to 1 and in some circumstances perhaps a bit more.

    Using 2 to 1, Boston “could” possibly end up with 2 inches
    of solid SLEET. Anyone forecast that? I think not.

    BUT, alas, it is just the HRRR and it has NOT happened, so there ya go. But clearly something to watch.

  49. Description
    …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING…

    WHAT…Heavy wet snow and sleet possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with up to 8 inches near the state border with New Hampshire. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

    Well I am on the NH border by a stones throw. I’m not buying the 8 inch amounts. It’s too expensive!

  50. Vicki……I will increase my good thoughts for those 2 babies.
    May they not only survive, but be robust and healthy.

  53. I suspect NWS will upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning in northern Worcester County soon. Maybe NW Middlesex? Not sure if they’ll take the one from Gray and pull it down into northern Essex and other parts of northern Middlesex, but we’ll see.

    1. They won’t officially report that until the end of the snow calendar year. Until then, it is the running total.

        2. I am driving in Southern NH at the moment. It’s available on the NWS climate page. They keep a running total. If you can’t find it then you can go to the monthly summaries and add up the totals for each month.

          1. Total Logan seasonal snowfall to date = 9.7 inches.

            Final total = TBD!!!

            Most likely this upcoming storm will be our last opportunity though. Oh well.

  56. Providence RI was up to .16 at 8am and they’ve been under greens and yellows this past hour.

    Unbelievable, that general area will already probably have .3 – .4 on the board before the storm arrives later tomorrow.

        1. earth quakes usually come in waves particularly the larger ones. They can occur in the same location/general location or miles up or down the fault and can go from hours to days. I bet we are about to head into a more active earthquake period

          1. Got it. Thanks, Matt. I had the sense the rating was dependent on where it was from center. I’ve just never seen it depicted as more than one rating in the past

  59. Another morning in which the sun shone briefly, then the clouds rolled in and it’s raining (despite weather predictions to the contrary). It has rained every day thus far (and will likely do so for the duration of my trip) and the sun has shone every day at least for an hour. 53F at the moment, but it feels considerably colder than 53F in Boston. It’s the constant dampness, so I’m pretty bundled up and I’m wearing a scarf as I stroll through the city.

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