Great Friday, Then A Visit From 2009

82 Comments

8:28AM

Some of you will get the 2009 reference above. For those who don’t, the weather from Saturday through the middle of  next week will remind you of the weather pattern we had in June (and July) of 2009. But before we get there, what a splendid day today will be. High pressure hanging on will provide bright sun much of the day though some high & mid level clouds will start to move in toward the end of the day from the west, and a few low clouds from the ocean may cross Cape Cod and the Islands. Also an east wind will keep it on the cooler side, especially at the coast, but not so cool that it isn’t enjoyable for most people.

Instead of going into great day by day detail, I’ll just sum up the coming several days this way: Not a great weather pattern, as we probably don’t get enough rain to erase the precipitation deficit, and not great weather for outdoor activities. You can blame this on a blocking pattern (similar to one we see in winter and early spring) that will hold upper level low pressure over the Northeast from this weekend well into next week. It won’t rain all the time, and we may even see a little sun here and there (especially for a while Sunday) but we’ll also see episodes of showers and drizzle, along with below normal temperatures.

Forecast details for eastern MA, southeastern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunshine, fading a bit late, also a few low clouds around Cape Cod & Islands. High mostly in the 60s, but touching 70 some inland areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds overtake the sky. Low 53-58. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, a few may be heavy. High 60-65. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Low 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. High 67-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers/drizzle. Low 54. High 63.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers/drizzle. Low 54. High 63.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 66.

82 thoughts on “Great Friday, Then A Visit From 2009”

  1. Thanks, TK!

    Yes, it does sound like the summer of 2009 to me. Oh, well.

    Vicki – husband is feeling much better, thanks.

    Hope everyone has a great wknd., despite the weather!

  2. Careful with the 2009 reference. Some people may interpret that as a sign this could last all month! Maybe it will, who knows. But, anybody have guesses on when this breaks down? From what I can see, it looks to be in this pattern for at least 10 days. By the 12th or do the NAO looks to go back to neutral. A couple more June’s like this and it becomes a normal occurrence. Go back and look at the blogs from last june. We had about 9 days in a row of this around the second week of June. As a whole, June 2011 wasn’t all that terrific either, then july was pretty hot. 🙂

    1. I don’t believe it will last the entire month.

      I do remember June 2011 being a cooler than normal month largely because of that stretch of unsettled weather.

  3. A lot of it depends on how long that cutoff low takes to move out. The NAO looks to come back a little more neutral, but still not postive for the forecast period. Of course that could change on the next model runs. From what i can remember from 2009, the problem was not the blocking per se, but the number of systems that movd thru and got hung up. Obviously the root cause was the persistent block, but the number of storm and distrubances that moved across were abnormally high.
    Maybe by next weekend the low looks to pull away. Hopefully by then another one doesnt come in and get hung up behind it since i really dont see that block breaking down for at least 10 days. Thats what I’m not sure about, when the block starts to fall apart. Until that happens, a storm of any size will get hung up and we are back in the soup.

  4. “TONIGHT: Clouds overtake the sky.” Hahaha sounds like that’s taken out of a horror novel. The clouds overtake the sky…then suddenly…the hooded girl springs from the tree, crawling quicker and quicker towards the house. The moon escapes from her vision and she is swallowed by the darkness above her. She looks down. A low rumble slips from her foaming mouth and her eyes become red slits. …. LOL

    1. And Jan, Feb and March ! Not much to complain about – well, except lack of snow and for me October storm was a good trade for no snow rest of season. It was kind of fun seeing what tricks mother nature could toss our way !

    2. There’s really no price at all. It is what it is. The blocking pattern had no idea what the weather was like in the winter. I’m sure you know that and are just being facecious 😉
      So the next time there is a lack of rain, who is going to really worry about it too much? Like I posted a month or two ago. The so called “drought” was/is really nothing more than a temporary lack of rain. A real drought? Naw, never seen one up here, never will. Not a real one at least.

    1. Wow – I wonder if they will postpone the best buddies ride. Sounds as if it could be risky with the heavy rain and the high winds.

    1. Bite you tounge! 🙂 Summer, or what masquarades as summer in Massachusetts, is just getting started.

      1. Everybody’s did I think.
        Isnt it time to guess the number of 90+ degree days? Thast a contest i can get into.

        1. Not longshots

          It was positively spot on at 3 inches for the season!!!

          Have I said that before 😉

  8. One bright spot is the rain will finally wash away some of this awful yellow pollen. This morning, getting into my car, I watched a gust of wind whip up a ground tornado of pollen dust that went all the way down the street. It was so bizzare. I think the pines are done with their little stunt so once its washed away it should be for good.

    I remember summer 2009 I had vacation planned in Bar Harbor end of July. I was so worried the weather would be awful since it had been up until then. Thankfully, the weekend we left to head up there marked the end of the rain and dreary weather and we had a beautiful week. The people up there said we lucked out, it was the first time all summer they had seen the sun.

    1. Hopefully better than Monday and Tuesday because our Canobie Lake field trip is scheduled for the end of next week.

  11. Today my husband and me went to a talk at a local Senior Center given by A. J. Burnett regarding the Springfield tornadoes last year and the Worcester tornado. Very interesting. Clouds moving in already.

    1. Wow – that must have been interesting.

      Back when Todd Gross was at 7 he had a get together for all of the weather spotters. He arranged for a gentleman who is one of the foremost speakers on the Worcester tornado to give a talk. It was phenomenal. Of course I can’t remember his name. Ugh

      1. Was it John M. O’Toole? I have the book he wrote, called Tornado! 84 Minutes, 94 Lives. I think I bought the book in 1994 or around that time. It’s a good book – but so tragic to what happened with the Worcester Tornado of 1953.

        1. Meaning – it was so tragic with all the deaths and damage. But the book is very good and gives some personal accounts of what happened at the time.

            1. Ok, I just looked him up. What he wrote was more re: the meteorology of the storm and what he wrote was a 19 page pamphlet. Looks like it might be interesting, ‘though, if it’s still around.

  12. Tornado warnings in VA and MD currently – or at least there were. I’ll take the cool and grey weather over the stormy weather down there. As long as we get some sunny, hot weather at some point!

  13. Full moon, perigean tides, particularly the night time ones, 10 pm to 2 am, from tonight thru next Wed morning are extremely high. Should be interesting to see how this cycle unfolds with the persistent onshore flow.

  15. In 2009 I took 2 months off of work to complete a multifamily renovation I was working on. Mid June to Mid August. What bad Luck I had. I got everything completed but it took forever. I built a small shed during that time and it took my two weeks to complete. In and out of the rain. I gave 4 weeks notice at my current job, this Friday will be ma last day and I start m new job on the 25th. With my luck this pattern will last until the 24th. 🙂

    1. Soon there will be a HurricaneTrac app. What I have read is that it will be a $1.99/mos.

  17. Thanks TK. What are your predictions for rainfall amounts. NWS mentions 5 inches and references the NAM showing up to 10, but we know the NAM has too much sometimes. Looks like NE MA, SE NH, SW ME.

      1. Northeast MA, Southeast NH, Southwest Maine. Those areas could have isolated 4-6 inch amounts, but the NWS said the NAM showed up to 10, but the NAM usually overdoes it.

      1. TK, where do you feel the axis will be for 3-5″? And hopefully that’s over a 5 day period. Either way, it’s still a lot of rain!

        1. Northeastern MA (Essex County) and across much of southern NH are the most likely areas for the bigger amounts.

  18. I saw that too, Mark. Something to do with the uncertainty as to whether El Nino will form.

  19. Joe Joyce early this morning:
    1) Computer models show 1.25″ for B-town
    2) Joe thinks closer to 2″
    3) Winds gusting to 40 mph, but will die down as day goes by
    4) Swells 3-5′
    5) We won’t be out of the rain / cloud pattern until Friday.

  20. The radar from last night looked more impressive than it does this morning. The width of the rain has also shrinked greatly and looks progressive. Are they betting on this stalling in eastern mass? If so it better start slowing down soon.

  21. GFS this morning shows this pattern until Friday before it starts to brak down. By next weekend into early next week, a ridge looks to build in with drier and warmer weather. Hopefully that verifies.

    1. I’d love to see the Euro agree and confirm, but it only does so partially. It has more zonal flow at week’s end, but still a hint of cyclonic flow, not so much a warm/dry ridge building in. At least it’s not showing a regeneration of a 500mb cut-off, which we see happen so often when this pattern gets going.

  22. I’d love to be at the beach today!! Why does radar look as if rain is pulling out? Is it expected to stall or circle back?

    1. It did come in faster than the models had it. Hopefully the afternoon will not be as rainy. I have had .58 so far.

    1. Sure it is. This is becoming the norm for early June. Look at last year, the year before that and the year before that (2009). At some point this DOES become the norm. In other words, awful 😉

  25. I think we have gotten through the worst of the rain. This storm was one heck of a challenge to forecast.

  26. We received .17 here and judging by the radar it does not appear to be much more to come. At least some of the pollen has been washed away.

  28. i think 1 to 2 inches across northeast mass then less than 1 inch across the rest of mass and southern new england 2 to 4 southeastern new hampshire and northern and coastal essex counties by noon tomorrow. We will continue to see that east wind. the higher and closer you are to the coast the cooler you will be. currently 52 degrees here in billerica and it is almost 1pm

  29. We were all panicking on severe droughts and major problems this summer and now 5-6 weeks later after today’s rain event some areas will have gotten 8,9 and even 10 inches of rain since, the last 6 weeks have been a Drought Buster for sure, have a great day everyone 🙂

    1. Charlie your area may not have drought concerns but rivers on my area have all recessed again. West river in blackstone is well below level typical for this year. Not clear on whether that river is controlled. Franklin ma has water ban.

      1. Yeah here ponds and lake are back above normal and with cool conditions that could persist well into June I think it will be fine, I’ve seen much worse, take it easy Vicki 🙂

      2. Water bans happen every year in Franklin they grew 13,000 residents in 12 years and forgot about water, water bans are a normal occurrence for almost every town

        1. Yes. Some towns throw up a ban or restrictions like
          clockwork. And I agree 100 times over with you on the drought thing. It was never an issue to begin with. I’m not sure why people were panicked much less worried. New england is basically a forest. A drought is a long term period with no rain, IMO. What we went thru was a little spell with no rain. Far as I’m concerned, drought over. The rain can stop now 🙂

        1. Which is a remarkable difference in area since you and I are really not that far apart. You have nearly as much in 6 weeks and I’ve had all year. Mother nature has a wonderful sense of humor!

  32. According to wunderground fram has had 10.79 inches of precip YTD. Can I assume some of that is snow

  34. It appears – as of Thursday – that most of MA is considered abnormally dry with nearly all of Worcester Cty and a tiny portion of Hamden and Hampshire being considered in a moderate drought area. I suspect that will change today in many locations if not all. It seems we keep dipping in and out of borderline drought but it is better than it was.

  35. Drought conditions are determined by long term trends. Topsoil and subsoil moistures do not often coincide. As an agricultural meteorologist, I assure you that even in New England these conditions are taken seriously by growers. We may have less farmland than the Midwest and Plains, but the long-term rainfall trends have a great deal of impact with regard to field preparation, pre-planting, planting, germinating, development, maturity, and harvest of crops, and even cleanup after harvest. It’s quite complex, and even varies from crop to crop.

    2. My son and I just got to the movies in hanover, pouring out. Moms off in north conway for a girls weekend, she saw a bear this morning. Playoffs tomorrow. I hope.

      1. A bear – fun! And I love North Conway – grew up spending weekends skiing there! How fun to have a “guys” weekend with your son!

  37. TK – or anyone – are we still expecting a noreaster tomorrow – TK your forecast seems more like non-intense rain. A friend is hosting a golf tournament in Worcester and I’m keeping my fingers crossed for her.

  38. Barry said last evening that we finally have the block we didn’t have all last winter. Also he said the tides will be at the highest Monday night (I believe) because of the onshore winds.

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