Tuesday April 16 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

We’ve passed the mid-point of April and as we head through the second half of the month, the story of the weather pattern is about to be examined in three parts. This section of the blog looks at the first 5 days of it. The story upcoming is going to be typical of spring, with changeable temperatures, but a less typical precipitation regime compared to what we’ve been seeing, and that is a pattern that produces less, not more. High pressure over eastern Canada extends southward into the Northeast into midweek. Today, we’ll be on the eastern side of its axis, with a continued northwesterly air flow of dry but fairly mild weather, as the air mass in place is not that chilly. However as the axis shifts eastward, the general air flow, while weaker, will be able to turn more northeast to east Wednesday and Thursday, while at the same time we’ll see an increase in cloud cover from approaching low pressure. This will turn our region a little cooler. The aforementioned low is going to be one that struggles to “move in” with the current set-up, with a primary low curling back through the Great Lakes. Much like the last system, a frontal boundary to our south would move up this way if we had less blocking in place, but the low pressure area that forms on it is going to be shunted further south and away from our region as we head from mid to late week. How it plays out here is that our cloud cover will likely be thickest on Wednesday night and Thursday when we also have our greatest chance of wet weather – basically a limited and dissipating rain shield that favors bringing some light rainfall to areas mostly Boston west and south. By Friday this is pushed far enough south and a little break-off area of high pressure can get far enough south, axis to our east, that we have a fair, milder day, assuming this evolves quickly enough. After that, things start moving more west to east again and a low pressure area passing north of our region in eastern Canada will drag a cold front through here on Friday night or early Saturday, with a round of rain showers, then fair but cooler weather arriving early in the weekend.

TODAY: Clouds over Nantucket early morning otherwise plenty of sunshine. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Clear except some fog patches possible interior lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring Boston area west and south. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds thin out. Lows 41-48. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 54-61 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

On to the middle third of the last half of April 2024. While we start and end the period with fair weather, the April 22-24 time window can be vulnerable to unsettled weather from a couple low pressure areas passing by to our south, if they come far enough to the north. Keeping an eye on that potential.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)

The last several days of April 2024 present what looks like a generally dry pattern, northwesterly air flow with a cool start and a milder finish.

53 thoughts on “Tuesday April 16 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    What is it that xwill make today a little leass mild than yesterday?
    I would have guessed about the same temperatures.

    Could we over achieve again?

    1. I actually had the wrong temp range on my TODAY. It should be 63-70 (fixed it). But still cooler than today because the overall atmosphere is cooler with more Canadian air and slightly cooler air above and lower potential temp. It will still overshoot guidance #’s though for the most part.

      1. Thank you. I knd of though it was along the lnes of what you said.

        Will be interesting to warch.

        temp is soaring here so far. up to 50 from low of 44 earler this morning.

  2. Ocean temp is 44.2 at Stellwagen.
    I can’t seem to get a water temperature at Boston Buoy. Not sure what is going on there

    Any how, the warmer that ocean gets, the less cold that East wind becomes.

  5. Thanks TK !

    Today is more humid with dps in the 60s. Feels nice. Not oppressive, yet a summer feel.

    1. How’s the trip going? Hope you are really enjoying it.

      Did you see all of the stuff that we posted????

      It’s cool that we can see your ship DOCKED!!!!

      ENJOY!!!!

      2. It’s going great !

        We did Horseshoe Beach Sunday, going back today and we did a catamaran cruise yesterday that took a 45 min ride to get to a cove, that we then stayed in for 2 hrs. We could swim, kayak, walk to the cove beach. Down the ladder, it was 5 ft deep.

        The ocean is 65-68. Cool at first then after a few minutes, you get used to it.

        We like the beach. I threw out there an island tour, but my wife wasn’t up for that. That’s ok, I can be a beach bum !!

        2. Awesome!!! I knew you’d like Horseshoe beach!!!!!

          Happy you are having a great time!!!

          Crystal Cave is pretty cool, but I know your time is limited.

          Continue to enjoy!!!

  15. As of 3 p.m. the temp range across the WHW forecast area is in the predicted 63-70 range, with some upper 50s to lower 60s out on the normally cooler Cape & Islands.

    Quite a picturesque spring day. Another one tomorrow too, but the fair-weather flat cumulus of today will be replaced with increasing high cloudiness tomorrow.

    1. Nicest stretch in April in a long time, at least from what I can remember (my short-term memory of 0-3 yrs isn’t what it used to be). I do recall a really nice period in mid April of 2014.

  17. Tonight is the last regular season game for the B’s and Jack Edwards said he will be resigning as the B’s announcer after the season is over. He’s been in that chair for 19 years.

    1. Listening to older videos of Jack announcing, you can really hear how his health issues have slowed him down.

      Jack’s a good guy. A little goofy at times as an announcer but what a passionate fan of the team. Love it. 🙂

    1. You just beat me to the punch, LOL.

      Surface:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024041618&fh=246&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024041618&fh=252&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Kuchera Snow w/ 15″ Hartford and Boston and two feet N&W of Boston:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024041618&fh=270&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Pull the plows and snowblowers back out 🙂

    2. It’s actually had that off and on for several days now. Not to that magnitude, but some snow across the region in that time frame.

    1. I’m going to hold on turning on the outside water a little bit longer – just in case. 🙂

      1. April 27-28, 1987

        It wouldn’t be totally unprecedented. Boston received 4.1” and Worcester around 20” iirc.

        1. Very rare to have that kind of snow that late, and I don’t really buy 1 GFS solution. But, that said, yes, it has happened before (just not those astronomical amounts depicted there haha).

        2. I remember it well. We had Around a foot. Our daffodils were in bloom and you could just see the flower above the snow

  20. Nice day today & I was home as we were celebrating my son’s 20th birthday. As you know I absolutely love this weather but I did not enjoy it as much today as I’m fighting a virus since Friday ugh . There has always been something with me being sick when it’s warmer out as I don’t like it , maker me feel worse .

    1. Feel better! If you suffer allergies at all the pollen (4 different trees) is thru the roof right now.

      1. Thanks I really don’t know I think it’s a really bad cold cough & the works . Doctor today says probably viral not Covid . But do you know I was sick last October with same thing & post nasal drip never went away I still have it 6 months. Later

  23. A great case of “recency bias” on local news tonight.

    Sports anchor, probably jinxing the Bruins in the process, said it was good news they lost tonight because they were going to play the Maple Leafs in the first round, which is good because “We always finish ahead of them.” and “The Bruins always beat the maple leafs. They usually beat them in 7 games, sometimes 6” (paraphrased).

    Yes, the Bruins are 4-0 against the Leafs this season.
    Yes, the Bruins have won the last 3 playoff series with the Leafs in 7 game. But that’s immediately where the statement stops being accurate.

    All time: 16 playoff series. Record against Leafs. 8 wins, 8 losses. No, they don’t “usually win”. They have won more recently. That’s recency bias.

    All time: The Bruins have won in 7 games 3 times. The last 3 times. That’s recently, not usually. That’s also recency bias.

    Statistics are statistics. Numbers don’t lie. And they should not be manipulated to falsely make a point. Just setting the record straight here, not that this sports reporter will read the blog, but at least I feel better now. 🙂

    1. I don’t watch hockey although I keep telling myself it would be fun to get into it. But I agree. And it may not be true, but I often feel comments made by announcers can end up a jinx. I cringed far more than once during the Masters for the same thing

Comments are closed.