Wednesday April 24 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 24-28)

Today is an unsettled weather day. First, a warm front will send a thick batch of mid level clouds west to east through the region this morning, with areas of light rain, which may take a while to reach ground level due to dry air in place. Eventually these clouds start to thin out but are joined by scattered to broken lower clouds in a south to southwest air flow in the warm sector between the warm front and an approaching cold front, the latter of which will set off a scattered to broken cluster or line of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms from mid through late afternoon, west to east across the region. While some of these may be briefly heavy, they won’t last, and breaks / clearing behind them make the region a candidate for rainbows before the sun goes down. Rainbows or not, what is a certainty is the shot of chilly air that arrives tonight, initially with wind, that will then diminish overnight. This leads to the threat of near to slightly sub-freezing temperatures in normal cold spots. Any early vegetation / plants will be vulnerable to minor freeze damage. While Thursday will be a “below normal” temperature day, high pressure building in will keep the wind in check, and along with that higher angle late April sunshine, it won’t feel too bad out there. Another great day follows on Friday with high pressure in control, but that day will be warmer inland and cooler along the coast as a coastal sea breeze will develop. A quick reminder on the classic sea breeze mechanics: Clear (or mostly clear) sky allowing sun to heat land with a weak pressure gradient in place, so no prevailing wind. The sun-heated land then heats the air near its surface, causing that air to rise, which then has to be replaced, and is done so by the cooler, more dense air from the ocean, which then flows inland to fill the void left by the rising warm air. This is your sea breeze, and will reach its peak while the sun is strongest on Friday, then start to fade as the sun sinks and the sea breeze circulation breaks down. This leads to a fairly calm Friday night under a clear sky, another chilly one. Saturday’s air mass will end up warmer, but we’ll have to overcome a cold start to the morning and we’ll see a fairly significant temperature rise from dawn low temperatures to afternoon high temperatures. Coastal areas once again will be cooler Saturday with an onshore component to the wind, which will be southeast to south ahead of an approaching warm front. That front will send clouds into our region Saturday night that eventually thicken up enough for a light rain threat, but that rain will be limited as again we’ll have plenty of dry air in place. Sunday’s weather will be mild, and while we may have a variable amount of clouds around at times, it looks like we will avoid any rain threat with nothing to trigger the warm and slightly more humid air in place to develop them – so a very nice weekend overall despite a Saturday night interruption, and this is better than it looked like when this time period was in medium range. Another good reason to check updated forecasts as we draw closer to any given day or time period.

TODAY: Clouds thicken this morning with a few periods of light rain likely. Clouds break at times this afternoon for partial sun, but another passing shower and possible thunderstorm can occur during mid to late afternoon. Highs 57-64, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W at day’s end.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 28-35 except 35-42 urban centers / Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37, coldest interior valleys. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 56-63 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light rain likely. Lows 47-54. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 63-70 most areas except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

April 29 forecast hinges on the position of a frontal boundary to our north which may drop down as a back-door cold front and cool it down significantly, while inland pop up showers are possible that afternoon. General shower threat April 30 as trough and front swings through west to east. Trend is for mostly fair weather and below to near normal temperatures during the first few days of May, though clouds may be abundant for at least part of that time frame. Not a high confidence outlook there so check updates.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 4-8)

Low confidence / high uncertainty spring forecast. Doesn’t look too wet though or with much in the way of significant temperature departure from what is typical for this time of year, but there is a lot of uncertainty in details. Much fine-tuning to come.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday April 24 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  4. I wasn’t expecting the blocking to back off, but it seems it has because now, the models seem to show milder/warmer air having a bit more success getting in here late week than it did a few days ago.

    I don’t trust this to hold on. Spring, bet the cold air.

    1. The echos look potent, however, I wouldn’t run for cover with that flash density. 🙂 🙂 🙂
      Not much there.

      We shall see. 🙂

      I suppose the more sunshine we get, the better the chances.

  10. Weather question. This is from a post on the Sutton site supposedly by a person with impressive credentials I’ll send to a few Mets too but to me this is a very logical place to start. It’s a push back on solar farms in sutton.

    “When air is warmed it rises. Even small differences in ordinary land surfaces are capable of creating powerful forces of weather like thunderstorms and tornadoes. These weather phenomena are initiated and reinforced by land features as they are blown downwind. It is all too obvious to me what will happen with the heat generated by an entire solar farm. SOLAR FARMS WILL BECOME THUNDERSTORM and TORNADO INCUBATORS and MAGNETS.”

      1. The introduction to the Nature paper says:
        However, the global climate pattern can also be disturbed by massive deployment of solar energy. This is attributed to the resultant changes in land surface properties (e.g., the surface albedo, roughness)

        1. Sure, to some extent, BUT SOLAR FARMS WILL BECOME THUNDERSTORM and TORNADO INCUBATORS and MAGNETS.”

          I don’t think so.

        2. Thank you. Will read this. We have a solar farm a stones throw from our neighborhood. I have checked Audubon re disruption for birds or wildlife and most hype of that was untrue. Clearly we do not have more thunderstorms since I always complain on here about missing them

          These are his supposed credentials. Remembering this is FB. And nothing is cited.

    2. I think that the statement: “SOLAR FARMS WILL BECOME THUNDERSTORM and TORNADO INCUBATORS and MAGNETS.”

      Is an ALARMIST statement and WAAAY over blown. WOW!!

      Just my opinion.

      1. Beyond overblown. If that were true, asphalt would have done so starting a long long time ago. The story has already been tossed in the bin by trusted mets on social media.

  12. You’ll love this. FB won’t let me post JPDs link because it goes against its standards. But it allowed the sutton individual to post the content ….and now we know what it was never cited.

  15. Mark, your experience at a French restaurant in Quebec City mirrors one of mine. It can be a bit much. The smelly cheeses, but also the escargot has a particular scent which I don’t find appealing.

    Have visited the city many times. Even wanted to buy a small studio there (probably should of, just as an investment) near the Place Royal.

    My French is pretty good, but I’m not fluent. And Quebecois French, which I’m afraid to say makes one sound like a mallard in the Public Garden (lots of nasal quacking), is really difficult to follow. Patrice Bergeron comes from QC and I’ve seen him speak at press conferences in French. He slows it down a bit, and I’m sort of able to follow it. But it’s a chore.

    The weather there is glorious. In summer there’s almost never a need for AC, except perhaps for 5 to 10 days total. Lots of mid to upper 70s. It certainly can get into the 80s during the day, but no tropical evenings or nights, which I can do without. Fall is shorter than ours, but still nice. Winter is longer and guaranteed to be snowy and cold. Spring is even shorter than ours. It kind of happens on a morning in May. Seriously it’s that ephemeral.

  16. These articles that go to the extreme really frustrate me.

    I do believe the climate is warming and that we are already seeing major consequences.

    But, with these irrational, extreme articles, it gives people plenty of ammunition to carry on as if nothing in the climate has changed.

    Very, very, very frustrating.

    1. I certainly agree and there are even more conspiracy theories
      that are just as dangerous or more so in the political arena.

  18. Thanks, TK.
    Sun is out in Sudbury; but I wouldn’t call it a bright sun. Lots of cloudiness around. The sky has a yellowish tinge to it. I have noticed that lately, unless it is raining and sky is normally gray.

  19. Just catching up….been more focused in the solar panel discussion.

    Joshua, I watched the video of the horses running loose Ugh.

    I honestly don’t think the horses are taught to run on sidewalks. They are flight animals and no matter how well trained, flight will take control. It said one has blood and at the end, the black ran into the path of vehicles. And the grey somehow was injured. But both at the start were running in the street.

    I’ll ask my daughter. I won’t show her the video as it is not easy to watch.

  20. Thanks, TK…

    Has cleared out nicely here.

    Bought new batteries for the “clickha” for tonight’s Red Sox-Guardians; Bruins-Leafs; Celtics-Heat games. Lots of switching back and forth!!!

    2. This is why I like having 3 screens I can see all at the same time. I utilize this a lot during the Olympics too. 🙂

  22. Vicki, I apologize for making light of the horses running wild in London. I was kidding about them learning to gallop on the left-hand side of the road in Britain.

    I realize that one of them was bleeding, probably from hitting a vehicle. Evidently, several people were injured, too. The horses are big and running at a fast clip, so clearly when they hit someone inadvertently it’s going to injure that person.

    1. I definitely didn’t take your question as making light of the situation at all. It was a legit questing in my mind. I was simply responding to it. But still plan to ask my daughter.

  24. First batch of showers approaching does NOT look impressive in the least. There is another batch out by Albany with a touch of lightning. Much more lightning well to our SW down around Long Island and New Jersey.

  28. For my area

    Special Weather Statement
    for Southern Worcester County

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    4:18 PM EDT Wed, Apr 24, 2024

    …Showers with strong winds will impact portions of Windham, northern Hartford, northern Tolland, southwestern Essex, western Norfolk, Middlesex, northwestern Bristol, Worcester, Suffolk, southeastern Hampshire, southeastern Hampden, west central Kent and Providence Counties through 545 PM EDT …

    At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a band of showers along a line extending from near Greenville to East Longmeadow. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

    HAZARD…Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Strong winds could cause minor damage such as downed branches.

    Locations impacted include… Boston, Worcester, Springfield, Lowell, Cambridge, Lynn, Newton, Somerville, Framingham, Waltham, Malden, Brookline, Medford, Revere, Peabody, Enfield, Arlington, Everett, Salem, and Woonsocket.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Get indoors when you hear thunder. Do not resume outdoor activities until at least 30 minutes after the storm has passed.

    &&

    MAX HAIL SIZE…0.00 IN; MAX WIND GUST…50 MPH

  29. Some places that hit the middle 60s this afternoon will be near or below freezing tonight. I love spring in New England. 🙂

  30. I think I have proof that solar fields somehow block severe weather. How many times lately have I posted radar images where the system splits when it gets to my area…..just kidding but it’s just as reliable as the dribble I posted esrlier

    https://ibb.co/gtzxFWt

  31. Short range guidance has done really well with the afternoon convective threat today. Timing, placement, decent!

  32. With Bayo now on the IL, that makes 9 players who’ve either missed time due to injury or been placed on the injured list. And the season is less than 4 weeks old. Unbelievable.

  35. Here’s a quote from Eric F. plucked out of the context of his most recent online weather video:
    “If you’re looking for the warning, I’m the warning!”

  36. No, he’s talking about frost/freeze warnings. He was explaining that the official Weather Service’s warnings aren’t given until later in May for interior areas of the state.

  37. I like the grit and determination of the Sox. As mentioned above, they’ve got an incredible number of people injured. But the team shows a lot of life, especially on the road.

    Celtics are a different story. They’ll beat a Butler-less Heat team eventually. But they’re not going to win the championship, in my opinion. They might not make it to the Finals. There’s something missing on the team.

    Bruins, well, we’ll see. Up 3-2. I have more faith in them than I do the C’s.

    1. I said at the start of the season, the Sox will entertain us. They will frustrate the fans in many games, but they will have good games. It’ll be fun to watch them if people aren’t thinking they’re going to win every game by 10 runs and cruise to a world series win. Not happening. But it’s fun to watch (and listen to) baseball if you’re a fan. That’s what this season will be about.

  38. Tom, your FB post about the Celtics was spot on. 🙂

    I was impressed with the Bruins effort tonight. The Celtics, not so much. 🙂

    1. Thanks !

      Yes, excellent by the Bruins !!

      I’m impressed because I get their forecheck game matches perfectly to Toronto’s defensive zone weakness, but, Toronto still significantly out guns them on the offensive side.

Comments are closed.