Tuesday April 30 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

This is the weather pattern that will separate experience from inexperience when trying to forecast weather even out to a couple days in this region. Guidance at one point would have one believe on just looking at it that a string of fair weather days with highs in the 60s and 70s would be the pattern, and yup we sure had some nice warm air around parts of the region on Monday with mainly fair weather, but not completely fair weather, as a solid batch of showers went through southern NH and northeastern MA at one point during midday with a passing disturbance. This took place in a northwesterly flow aloft while a surface cold front, back-door style, slipped through the region, turning it cooler from northeast to southwest, but not quickly enough to take away the warmth the further west and south you were. So, now that we have all that explained, the rest of the forecast should be easy, right? Wrong. That boundary that went by will sit to our west and south through midweek, and a series of disturbances brings shower chances. Even some thunderstorms went through southern areas early this morning. Additional showers and even thunderstorms are possible today before a weak high pressure area to the north dries us out for Wednesday. After that, another disturbance returns the shower chance ofr Thursday. What once looked like a high pressure area slipping off to the south and east to warm us up for late in the week now looks more like another eastern Canadian high to drive more cool air into the region. The high center will be in the Atlantic Canada region with a nose extending southwestward into New England Friday and Saturday. This brings mainly fair weather but does not allow a significant warm up to take place, especially in coastal areas. Don’t be surprised if part of this outlook is different tomorrow – springtime in New England!

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers around mostly through midday. A batch of heavier showers with embedded thunder favoring Southern New Hampshire and northeastern Mass late morning. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.,

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle/fog. Lows 43-50. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with lingering light rain/drizzle possible early, then breaking clouds. Highs 53-60, warmest inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a possible shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 53-60 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)

This remains a low confidence forecast. Frontal boundary brings a threat of showers on May 5. Another disturbance renews the shower threat at mid period, but timing uncertain. Fair weather days are most likely May 6 and 9. Temperatures variable, but not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)

While several systems threaten with some unsettled weather, it does not look excessively wet, nor do temperatures stray very far from normal for mid May. But low confidence outlook, so check updates.

54 thoughts on “Tuesday April 30 2024 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Until mid-late June, I’ll never be surprised if the cool wins. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I’m surprised if it doesn’t dominate.

    1. I was watching that earlier. Tons of lightning with that line.
      Looks to pass North of the Boston Area, but will keep an eye
      on it just in case. 🙂

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I am amazed at how often the TV Mets BITE on the guidance and forecast warmth that AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!!!!
    INCREDIBLE and some of the forecasters have been around this area a long time and SHOULD know better!!!!

    Oh well, such is life in New England.

    Made it to 73 here yesterday before the cool took over and dropped it to 57 and then some sunshine brought it back up to 61. 50 overnight and now 51

    Ocean Temperature: 46.9 (Boston Buoy)

  10. We hit 79 yesterday.

    It was quite a thin line of thunderstorms that ran from North Adams area to here when the thunder woke me around 3:30. Temp dropped slightly to mid 50s then down to 53. Went up to 60 and now to 59. 51 DP

  13. Thanks, TK!

    Things have calmed way down in the precipitation department. We have had 0.69″ since April 13. I can see the highwater marks on the banks of the Taunton River when I drive by.

  14. Mini rant for the day: The United States of America is absolutely obsessed with courts and trials (both criminal and civil). It’s the first thing I noticed when I returned from overseas in 1995. There can be a ton of consequential news happening worldwide, but often most of the headlines locally and nationally will be about courts and trials. It’s really weird.

    1. Yesterday morning Ch. 5 had wall-to-wall coverage of the opening statements of the Karen Read trial, the only local station to do so. All other stations continued along with their regular programming.

  15. Thanks TK
    What a difference a day makes with temps into the 70s and today some places not getting out of the 50s.

    1. Can’t base that on the current pattern. But if we find a ridge in the Midwest, then MCS chances are higher in the Northeast.

  21. 60.6 here in JP. I was just out. It is actually very very nice out!
    Feels great!

    MUCH MUCH better than I expected today.

  22. 61.6 here.
    I think the combination of the Canadian high slipping to the East and Se and approaching disturbances from the West
    have allowed the winds to turn SE to SSE anywhere away from the immediate coast making it pleasant just back from the coast.

  25. Person: “I thought today was supposed to be sunny and 70s.”

    Me: “And when did you hear that?”

    Person: “Last week.”

    Me: “Let me guess. Weather app.”

    Person: ** wry smile **

    Me: “What have I said before?”

    Person: “I know, I know!”

    HAHA!

    1. Looks to me like the boundary from yesterday is just hanging around this area. There wasn’t that strong a push from eastern Canadian high pressure this time. However there’s also an outflow boundary near Boston from the convection that went by to the north earlier.

  29. B’s 1-1, but not not looking all that great at the moment. Need a little more rhythm and momentum. too much time on D.

        1. I will say, they are damn lucky to be tied 1-1 after one period after being out-shot 12-2.

  30. Could not agree with you more on the potential close out game of the series the hardest to win . I am hoping the Knicks can do that tonight against the Sixers.

  31. B’s got out of the 1st 1-1 fortunately. They got out shot and couldn’t win a face-off. Leafs playing like they should.

  32. Career advice: Don’t EVER become a freelance writer. What used to be a livable income – as recently as several years ago – has become peanuts, literally. I’m working on serious article (which may be syndicated in Scientific American) for which I get paid $700. I’ve counted the hours. I’m up to 55 and I’m not done with all the edits and reference checks the editors want me to do. Probably another 5 hours to go. Divide 700 by 60 = $11.66 an hour.

    I’d be earning better money flipping burgers at McDonald’s.

    1. Joshua, I hope your article generates lots of thoughtful (and civil!) discourse. Please let us know when it’s published.

  33. 22-12 on shots, still 1-1. The Bruins need to PLAY the 3rd period. They can’t rely on luck to win this game (& series).

          1. Onto game 6. Well, I can’t say I’m surprised. The effort was not really there tonight, not compared to what I know they are capable of.

            I think some lineup changes were made that didn’t really need to be. But, that one’s done. Next try Thursday in Toronto.

            2. The effort part, wow !

              The Bruins last night looked like the Celtics of the last few years. A chance to clinch a series and come out flat with no urgency.

              Bizarre. If the Celtics come out with the same effort tonight, themselves up 3-1, my TV may not survive. 🙂

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