Saturday May 4 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

An extension of Canadian high pressure delivered enough dry air to clear the region out later yesterday and holds on today so we get a pretty decent day to start the weekend today. But this won’t last too long, as the block that the high pressure area is part of is letting go somewhat as a trough and frontal system move in from the west on Sunday, turning the weather unsettled again. But a more progressive pattern for a few days does mean we’ll see a clearing trend for Monday, though a little patience may be needed, but it will pay off with a Top Ten kind of day on Tuesday – much more sunshine and warmth for the region, except some cooling influences in some coastal areas where wind comes off the water. When midweek arrives, so does our next stretch of unsettled weather. More about that later. First, focus on the 2 or 3 really nice days coming up in the shorter term…

TODAY: Plenty of sun, with intervals of clouds. Highs 54-61 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving west to east late morning on. Highs 52-59 coast, 59-66 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Clouds and showers lingering in eastern MA and RI early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64 South Coast / Cape Cod, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs ranging widely from 55-60 Islands & Cape Cod warming as you go west and north until 75-80 west of the I-95 belt. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes developing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 51-58. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle developing. Temperatures steady 51-58. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

While there may be a drier interval early in the period, the general easterly flow continues into the May 11-12 weekend with cool, unsettled weather more likely, with some improvement potential late weekend / early following week (May 12-13).

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Overall spring block or slow-moving pattern should feature upper level low pressure over or just east of the region – US Northeast to southeastern Canada. This pattern is seasonably cool but not too wet, despite some unsettled episodes with shower chances.

57 thoughts on “Saturday May 4 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  2. Thanks TK! At least it will be nice on my birthday Tuesday but not much after that

    1. How I think this is going to play out, and I’ll get more detail on tomorrow’s discussion if I feel this way still..

      We get a low passing to our south Wednesday with clouds, east wind, rain/drizzle (maybe not a lot of rain though).

      Thursday we actually get a drier high pressure area with a cool but fair day.

      Then we get into a 2 to 3 day stretch of east wind with lots of clouds and occasional wet weather Friday through Sunday (May 10-12). Yeah I know that’s getting out there in time, and details are fuzzy, but that’s the way I kind of seeing this pattern going.

      Petey B put out a message with his 10-day and was hinting to people not to take that as “days of rain” because that’s what people will see and interpret. It almost never rains for days on end, even around here, even in spring. There are nearly always breaks.

  5. Thank you TK.

    In your forecast are you saying rain arrives late AM tomorrow and then off and on showers until evening when the showers will be more persistent? Because of outdoor plans on Sunday, I am trying to get a handle, if possible, on the non-rainy periods tomorrow.

    1. I think the areas that see rain as early as late morning will be confined mostly to NW of the I-95 belt, maybe even west of I-495. The initial thrust of moisture is northeastward while battling some lingering dry air in place to the east. That’s why for your area I’d lean toward “a few showers” the first half of the afternoon and the steadiest rainfall after 3PM.

      Yesterday I was leaning toward “after 5” for the Boston area, but I have to move that up by a couple hours based on the best short range guidance I have.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Nade 57 here yesteday.

    Already 56 today. I’m liking that.

    Ocean temp; 47.1 (Boston bouy)

  8. Today, from 9AM to 1PM, is Woburn’s city-wide yard sale. It’s really just about 50 to 75 families, a couple businesses, and churches, agree to have a yard sale on the same day, and the rec department makes a map and a list. It’s kind of fun and brings people together. 🙂 Great weather for it!

    1. Let me correct myself. There are 84 participants. I better get moving!

  10. SClarke, the `63 Corvette is a thing of beauty.

    Vicki, the `67 Corvette is great, too, as well as the Mach series.

    JPD, So cool that you drove a `70 Cougar.

  11. Sometimes everyday ways of describing things deviate from how experts, who are trained to really know about what’s being described, talk about them. There are many examples of this from the weather world.

    Well, there are also plenty of examples from the economics world. I was struck by the use of “competitive” to describe the housing market in Central Massachusetts. It’s a good article, except its use of the term competitiveness deviates from how economists like myself view it. In fact, the article sums up precisely how the housing market there is NOT competitive. You see, economists describe a competitive market as one in which there’s plenty of supply (and demand) and prices are NOT relatively high. https://www.boston.com/real-estate/the-boston-globe/2024/05/04/this-part-of-massachusetts-ranked-as-the-third-most-competitive-rental-market-in-the-country-its-not-the-boston-area/?p1=hp_primary

    Another example is the word “economics.” I often encounter its use in relation to the prescription drug supply chain. Clients will ask “what’s the economics” for a particular stakeholder? Really what they’re asking is how a stakeholder, say, the pharmacy, creates revenue or makes money, what its profit margins are, etc … Well, that’s a VERY narrow perspective on economics, which, according to the the American Economic Association is: “the study of scarcity, the study of how people use resources and respond to incentives, and the study of decision-making. It often involves topics like wealth and finance, but it’s not all about money.”

    1. I was fortunate to have a wonderful high school economics teacher, Michael Angelo (really!). The interest that he sparked lead me to take several undergraduate economics classes as electives for my math degree.

      Then, for the fun of it, I sat in on a theoretical economics class in graduate school. I don’t remember the details, but the definition of an economy there was along the lines of “A function E from … to … with the properties …” This class was way out there, but it was fun to observe! Not once did the price of widgets come up. 🙂

      1. Hahahahahaha. That’s a great start. Since I’m avoiding Wile E coyote after dark, I am not sure standing in the middle of the yard is a good idea.

  14. SClarke, thanks for sharing the story about your economics class.

    I love the history of economic thought – which I’ve taught, in addition to macroeconomics and international economics – which conveys the evolution of the discipline from its origins in Adam Smith to John Maynard Keynes to Milton Friedman to modern-day practitioners such as Janet Yellen (Treasury Secretary).

    If you study the history of economic thought you learn that what are often considered competitive markets exhibit anti-competitive elements (prevention of market entry, in particular). There’s a lot of what economists call rent seeking behavior or growing one’s existing wealth by manipulating the social or political environment without creating new wealth other than your own.

  16. Well when I walked the shore this AM it was 47 and sunny. Now I am at 52 and very cloudy, and without the sun it almost feels “cooler” than when it was 47.

  17. Is the following true?

    Q: How can you determine your distance from a thunderstorm?

    A: Count the number of seconds between lightning and thunder and divide the seconds by 5 to get the number of miles.

    I just found this as I am going through some weather stuff at home. For some reason, I am thinking that the answer is the distance to the spot / area where the lightning strike was located. Maybe this is one for Google … which will probably leave me more confused.

    1. Nws says

      If you count the number of seconds between the flash of lightning and the sound of thunder, and then divide by 5, you’ll get the distance in miles to the lightning: 5 seconds = 1 mile, 15 seconds = 3 miles, 0 seconds = very close. Keep in mind that you should be in a safe place while counting.

      I taught my grandkids this as a math type lesson. I tend to use weather for several math type lessons. They are interested in weather so it’s a win win

      1. No rain yet! Heavy cloud bank.

        What I don’t remember is the distance you arrive at. … the distance to the storm or distance to where the lightning struck?

        2. Hmmmm. Now I’m second guessing. Although at the center of the storm aren’t the lightning and thunder together?

    3. I grew up with that. I don’t know how accurate it is.

      The speed of sound is 767.269148 miles per hour
      OR
      0.213130319 miles per second

      But that would depend on atmospheric conditions as it could
      vary slightly

      How far would sound travel in 5 seconds?

      5 seconds x .21 = 1.05 miles
      10 seconds x .21 = 2.10 miles
      20 seconds = 4.2 miles

      So roughly speaking sound travels “about” 1 mile every 5 seconds, thus dividing by 5 gives the number of miles.

      Does that sound about right?

      1. That’s how I always did it. Since my stopwatch is actually saying to myself “one one-thousand, two one-thousand,..” it’s definitely a ballpark figure!

        When you see the flash, hear and feel the boom, and hear the crackle all at once, you better hope you’re wearing sneakers 🙂

        1. Hey how about thaf. We share a stop watch. It seems to be very very close. My lightning detector and one app I have are always very close to my count.

          I just tested by counting and setting a timer without watching it and our stopwatch was accurate each time.

          1. I love my lightning display. It shows the strike right
            down to the house level in my neighborhood.
            I can even see my house and my car parked outside.

            When we see the flash and crack of thunder almost instantly, I always look to see how close it was.
            Nice app.

            It is called My Lightning Tracker

            Seriously, that is the name of the app.

  18. Walked to the North End to see a couple of former colleagues. We met at a place that’s near the water. I don’t know what the temperature was there (outside the restaurant), but it couldn’t have been much more than 50F. I was chilled as I walked down Commercial Street. I’m back home and it’s 50.8F, according to my thermometer.

  19. 12 straight wins for the Twins, who are managed by Woonsocket’s own Rocco Baldelli (before becoming a manager he played for the Rays until he got persistent injuries).

    1. I think you guys all have me excited to watch.

      First time in about 25 years we did not have a derby party or watch the derby. Looks as if we missed a good one but the mistreatment of horses at top levels is unconscionable

      1. Knowing just enough to understand some of the game, I’m sure impressed by him considering the time spent at that net

        I’m also going to need a session with my Calm app after this. Good grief it is an edge of your seat sport

  24. Sleep? Who needs sleep? Got home at 12:40, alarm goes off at 1:00 for work. Then again, there’s no way I’d be able to sleep after that game.

    1. If “glutton for punishment” was one of the valid answers from what you said the other day, at least you didn’t get punished by the game. 🙂

      Best of luck and enjoy the sleep that finally comes after work! Just get home safely first…

    1. I was really hoping the fair weather fans that had them counted out after game 6 and even game 5 in some cases did NOT watch last night’s game. They didn’t deserve to see it and should not be rooting for the team any longer. 🙂

      I’m already seeing people count the Bruins out before the next series even starts. So, if they were in charge, I guess the plan would be to just hand Florida an “advance to the next round free” card and send the Bruins home? Right… Please folks, don’t watch the Bruins anymore. You’re not fans. You’re really not. 🙂

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