Monday May 6 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)

93 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

This Monday-Friday 5-day period, known to many as the “work week”, will feature quite a contrast of weather from one end to the other, and in some cases in the same day. Clarification is presented in this discussion. Read on. Today, a disturbance exits early, and start-of-day scattered showers, a few heavy, along the South Coast will exit. For much of the day, we’ll sit in a mild and increasingly humid but light southerly air flow. Inland areas warm nicely, while in coastal areas the temperature will be held back more by the ocean’s influence. Later today, a cold front dropping into the region from the northwest can and likely will trigger scattered showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm. Where these do occur, they will be brief, and maybe good for a couple rainbows on departure. This front sets us up for the pick of the week, Tuesday, dominated by high pressure. The air mass remains mild behind the front, so inland areas warm easily to 70+ for high temps Tuesday afternoon, while coastal areas are vulnerable to a healthy sea breeze. By mid to late afternoon a temperature contrast of up to 20 degrees may exist between some coastal and inland communities, another distinctive characteristic of New England’s springtime weather. Enjoy Tuesday, wherever you are, because the weather takes a turn after that. A low pressure disturbance and frontal system move in from the west via the Great Lakes on Wednesday, bringing unsettled and cooling weather to us as the wind turns more easterly over the region. The frontal boundary will sit mostly just to the south of our region Thursday and Friday while a couple waves of low pressure travel along it. I was a little more optimistic about Thursday’s weather previously, but not as much now, so I’m just forecasting both of those days to be generally cloudy, occasionally wet, and quite cool. Sorry!

TODAY: Early showers exit the South Coast and a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible from northwest to southeast (least likely South Coast), otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland, with some cooling in coastal areas after midday. Wind S up to 10 MPH, may turn SE in eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming in inland lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 except 60s coast where some areas can cool below 60 in the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of showers. Highs 58-65 in the morning, then cooling in the afternoon. Wind variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle in the evening. Lows 46-51. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers/drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59 except cooler coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

The May 11-12 weekend starts cloudy, cool, and somewhat wet, but may have improvement with some partial clearing and drier weather before it’s over. A drier interlude early next week but may turn unsettled by the end of the period, middle of next week, yet again. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Overall pattern expected to feature upper level low pressure US Northeast and southeastern Canada, a partial block, and a generally cool and occasionally unsettled set-up here, but still plenty of rain-free time too.

93 thoughts on “Monday May 6 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    good chunk of Oklahoma, if I recall correctly, is designated as moderate threat and under a 15% tornado contour.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Words of Spring: while coastal areas are vulnerable to a healthy sea breeze.

    UGH!!!!

    Ocean temperature: 48.2 (Boston Buoy)

  4. To TK,

    1) Thanks for today’s update. Was thinking of going to Rockport later in the week … maybe not.

    2) Understood about your son’s choir concert … takes precedence over my question for sure.

    3) Thanks for the 5 seconds to a mile explanation. I was surprised by the answer and it was educational! Learning is my favorite activity.

    1. That’s a great question. I’m central and think we reached 79. Cannot recall if we hit 80 this year.

      1. We’ve had hummers here but they fly so fast. Great picture you took of it at the feeder. Haven’t seen any Orioles around her but I have seen them when we lived in Framingham at times.

      2. I can’t recall reaching 80 degrees here yet. We are in East Central MA and can’t recall 80 degrees since sometime last summer.

    1. Awesome! I don’t recall ever seeing an oriole. I may have, but I just don’t remember. 🙂

  22. Not only are the temps in the mid-upper 60s, but dps are in the 50s

    MUCH better for May !!!!! Keep it coming !

      1. My equipment is showing a DP of 61 here.
        It can be off by a few degrees either way. Sometime it is spot on. Very temperamental 🙂

    1. Most dew points are in the mid to upper 50s, so I suspect my dew point reading is off some.

    1. Wow! Just read the watch details. Scary as hell!!!
      In that area most people do NOT have basements and not enough have storm shelters.

      I’d have everything at the ready to dive into my storm shelter all the while glued to my Radar Scope with the radial velocity display. (not for nothing, but I would NOT Live there without a storm shelter. Of course, I wouldn’t live there anyway for other reasons)


      1. Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
        Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
        inches in diameter likely

  29. 77 here. I was just out. Still holding onto a SW breeze.
    NO STINKEN SEA BREEZE here!!!!!!

  30. I had (too much) pasta in the North End on Saturday. Maybe that helped the Bruins.

    1. ha ha ha
      I really don’t care that much for pasta, the food, not the player. 🙂
      I’ll eat it for sure, but NOT my fav.

  32. Humidity is back, baby, and I’m NOT liking it.

    It’s only another 4 months, though, so I’ll be okay …

    1. Indeed, I can feel it and my wife feels it even more.
      We were debating whether to open the windows or not and elected NOT to as to keep as much of the drier air left in the house right where it is and NOT to let humidity in. However, the wetness is seeping in!!

  35. Today marks the 87th anniversary of the tragic Hindenburg disaster in New Jersey. That morning, the airship was over Boston. My uncle, who lived in Jamaica Plain in 1937, told me he remembers seeing the Hindenburg flying slowly over his school (Curley, I believe) that morning.

    Here’s an iconic shot of the Hindenburg over Boston on the morning of May 6, 1937:

    https://imgur.com/M0rKNLe

    1. A stunningly sad photo. Thank you for reminding us of this tragic event, Captain. I can only imagine how your uncle and others watching felt

  36. Today shows what spring would be like if the wind simply came from the continental US.

    Not a huge ridge, no outrageous 850 mb temps.

    Just a west wind not out of Canada or off the Atlantic.

    Mid 70s …….

    1. 🙂 🙂

      AH, but Canada looms just to our North and the Atlantic is in our backyard. 🙂 🙂

  37. Thanks TK.

    Impressive late season May snowstorm out West. 26″ in 24 hours at Palisades Tahoe with temps down in the teens and snow ratios as high as 18:1 during the storm. Incredible even for them given the time of year.

    Palisades planning on staying open through at least Memorial Day..

    Palisades Tahoe
    @palisadestahoe
    May 5
    ❄️ 26 INCHES IN 24 HOURS… IN MAY ❄️

    Our teams are hard at work this morning getting the mountain ready for one of the best May powder days in recent memory, but some patience will be required as we do expect delayed openings. #SpringSkiingCapital

    https://x.com/palisadestahoe/status/1787140350336790592

    1. Utah getting crushed as well. Snowbird had received 21″ as of this morning with the NWS projecting another 20-30″ by tomorrow….

      Snowbird
      @Snowbird
      3h

      One of the biggest storms of the season is here, bringing with it a lot of everything: SO much snow, wind, stoke, hard work from our teams & patience from our guests. As we look to break the 600” mark for season-to-date snowfall overnight, it feels more like February than May

      https://x.com/Snowbird/status/1787579622156361924

    2. Nice to hear!

      I was beginning to turn my attention to Australia’s Hotham resort, which opens to skiers in early June. I follow winter/snow seasons vicariously, worldwide.

  38. The other big weather story of the day is a big severe weather outbreak for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. Long tracked tornadoes possible.

  40. And perhaps a risk of some severe weather here Wednesday?

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    2h

    There’s a risk for severe weather Wednesday afternoon/evening. Elevated mixed layer will result in quite a bit of elevated instability. Large hail will be a threat with any rotating storms that develop. Low level stable layer should preclude a widespread wind or tornado threat.

    https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1787594916580692203

      1. I think that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could at the very least present us with unfavorable scenarios. The decline of El Nino and the warm waters of the Atlantic are just a couple of factors that favor hurricane development. I am reading forecasts that all translate to above normal.

        Hurricanes, as I am sure you know, present forecasting difficulties start to finish to say the least. I have been following things for a few months and all I can say is that it is looking uncomfortable.

  45. Thanks TK.

    What a miserable stretch upcoming for early May. Must hate late April into late May. What can you do I guess.

      1. His effort was there, 100%. Didn’t score, but when he’s involved, things happen. Rebounds, passes. Even though the Cats held him mainly in check last night, the total team effort made up for it. And this is why we need the total team efforts.

        Many people: “I’d start Ullmark. Sway just played.”

        Me: “HAHAHAHA! Yup, sit the hot goalie. Smart move. Start Swayman.”

        Glad the coach didn’t agree with them.

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