Tuesday May 7 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

Today is going to be an example of how it can be “mild” or “warm” behind a cold front. By definition, the front that quietly slipped through the region last night was indeed a cold front. It was the leading edge of a continental polar air mass originating well to our north. However, over time, with the help of dry air and a high sun angle, that air mass has modified, so our day today in the “polar” air mass will be in many areas the warmest so far this year as high pressure moves over our region. The air mass is also drier than yesterday, when you may have noticed the humidity spiking up (my dehumidifier in the basement, which comes on automatically, kicked on for the first time since October last night). With a light wind today, the coast will be vulnerable to sea breezes, so those areas won’t enjoy the level of warmth inland locations will, but that’s typical for this time of year. Wherever you may be, if you can get out to enjoy today for a while, do so, because a rather lengthy stretch of unsettled weather pounces on us starting tomorrow lasting into the upcoming weekend. It starts as a low pressure area exits the Great Lakes and heads our way. A warm front ahead of it will bring a batch of showers through the region in the morning, then a break before showers and even a possible thunderstorm visit later in the day and evening from west to east (best chance of thunder to the west). This will be with a cold front as low pressure slides just north of our region. The front will move through at night and settle just to our south Thursday and Friday, where it will become a travel lane for a couple areas of low pressure. These will bring us periods of rain, drizzle, and very cool weather under a thick overcast both Thursday and Friday. The final low center will start to pull away from the region Saturday as we start the weekend, but enough guidance shows me that being a slow enough process that I’m reluctant to be too optimistic about clearing out that day. Will watch trends.

TODAY: A few clouds near Cape Cod and the Islands early in the morning, otherwise sunny, with some high clouds appearing in the west later today. Highs ranging from near 60 along the South Coast and Cape Cod to 71-78 most inland areas, with some cooling along the coast during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely during the morning. Breaking/thinning clouds midday and early afternoon. Heavier clouds mid-late afternoon with additional showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH in the morning, S 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Lows 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain/drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59 except cooler coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain/drizzle and areas of fog during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

Another disturbance may bring a shower opportunity on May 12 to finish off the weekend but it should also be somewhat milder that day. Trend is for drier/warmer weather early to middle portion of next week before additional unsettled weather arrives toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Low confidence forecast, but upper level low pressure should keep it on the cooler side, unsettled to start then a drying trend, with finally a late period warm up possible as the pattern opens up and becomes more zonal again.

67 thoughts on “Tuesday May 7 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    2 steps forward (yesterday and today), 15 steps back (upcoming) weatherwise. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  2. Thanks TK. I have some outdoor plans Friday late afternoon. Do you see much rain then?

    1. Good morning and thank you TK.

      67 here already

      63 at the airport with a NNE wind already off of the ocean.

      Speaking of ocean, the water temperature at Boston Buoy is
      now 49.3

  4. Thank you TK!

    Great Bruins game last night. Now it is the Celtics turn tonight. Go Celts!!!

    1. If the rain is light, can you still work? I often see them working in rain out here. Still has to be miserable

      1. I won’t lay mulch in the rain as it won’t spread evenly & when it dries it will be bumpy . I am extremely picky with my mulch beds & I claim to have the smoothest beds around after mulching. I am very conscious on jobs and take both pride in workmanship & customer satisfaction to the highest level . Always best in my opinion to mulch & edge when it’s dry

        2. Makes sense. I have not seen mulch spread in rain. Just prep work. Don’t you want to extend your business a few miles west to Sutton?

          1. lol . Might be a wrap this year it’s up to my 3 laborers as two of them will be college juniors next year . When there done I’m done . I think this is my 9th season & I have an impeccable reputation. I actually have customers who will wait weeks for us . It’s all about workmanship, honesty & just walk your talk .

            1. I do know you have an excellent reputation. Folks will be sad if you stop. Hopefully, you can find other younguns to work with.

              Sooooo in nine years, you have pretty much saturated the market in your area. A move a few miles west might be a really good idea 😉

  11. Down to 67 here and 63 at the airport. So far, still nice, but
    HOW far will the temperature drop due to the influence
    of that STINKEN EAST WIND??????

      1. Then it turns into a perpetual southwesterly. Hoping for some northwesterly incursions, but that’s not a given.

    1. I love that. I’m a country girl. But I’ve always thought it would be fun to spend some time in the city.

  18. Captain: Thanks yesterday for sharing that iconic photo of the Hindenburg over Boston in 1937. I had no idea it flew anywhere near Boston.

    Based on that particular photo, the Hindenburg “appears” heading for disaster already in Boston as the ship is aiming directly toward the top of the Custom House Tower, which was likely the very tallest building in the city at the time.

  20. I totally disagree with the SPC outlook to include all of SNE in the marginal risk. I think the marginal risk should be far western CT and MA.

  21. Quick peak at the latest SREF it is showing a low tornado risk Worcester area west for tomorrow afternoon.

  22. Just hit 80 in SE Sutton. I was out and about about 2 hours ago and it was 81 in part of Uxbridge

    Kids are having squirt gun battles.

  23. 71 here and absolutely beautiful out!!!!

    I know we’re going to pay for this nice weather!!!

  24. Today is the day where the ‘spring uneducated’ get fooled. You get a sunny day with mild to warm temperatures in early May (happens almost every year) and everybody is prompted to switch out their clothes to summer, put out lawn furniture, go into full summer mode, and plan a trip to the beach whenever the next available day they have is, only to be brought back to reality by the fact that it’s just mid spring.

    I have to admit, as frustrating as it is, it’s also kind of amusing to watch. 😉 Most of us know. Some of us just can’t learn. 🙂

    Reality check is on the way for those who haven’t learned. 🙂

  25. Tomorrow’s conditions include the potential for up to 1 inch diameter hail as far east as the I-95 belt in a few potentially strong to severe thunderstorms. Keep an eye out. Coverage will be low for any of the worst of the activity. We are included in the marginal risk area, and should be, based on this potential. Of lower risk is isolated damaging wind gusts. Also, remember the definition of “marginal”. 🙂

      1. Window #1: 7AM to noon from west to east.
        Window #2: Noon to 5PM from west to east.

        It looks like a non-stop window from 7AM-5PM based on that but it’s really to be two distinctive areas that have to traverse the region, so it’ll span time. For your area I’d think mid morning and mid afternoon are the most likely times.

  26. Ryan Hanrahan last night on tv and on X was mentioning the possibility of hail if any storms are strong or severe.

    1. Remember last week lots of apps were just tossing the European model forecast up with 70s all week and the mets here said “nope, warmest Monday & Tuesday” or something similar.

      There’s a reason why applied meteorology works. 🙂

  29. 5 straight May days with highs in the 50’s and rain or showers on most of the days. Tremendous weather.

    1. This isn’t really unusual, and there is going to be a lot of rain-free time in there. In fact, it may “not rain” more often than it “rains”.

      Based on the trends recently, I may have to back off a bit on the wet weather, actually.

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