Wednesday May 8 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)

141 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

A “dynamic duo” impacts today’s weather across the WHW forecast area. First up, a warm front with good instability moves in quick fashion from west to east across the region this morning and midday with the early sun you saw if you were up being lost behind thickening clouds, followed by areas of showers with potential embedded thunder in some locations. Behind this a break comes with some thinning and breaking of the clouds. Then the second member of the duo comes along from the west northwest from mid afternoon to early evening – this a cold front that will set off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, possibly a cluster or two a little more organized. Any of these heavier cells have the potential produce hail of up to 1 inch in diameter and a lower probability of a damaging wind gust, so while the chances are low that any one location sees this, keep an eye to the sky (and the radar) as we move through the afternoon. This exits early evening, possibly with rainbows in showers’ wakes in locations where it occurs before sunset as some partial clearing can occur right behind them. Another swath of clouds will slide across the region later this evening as the air flow shifts to northerly, but this will be followed by some additional partial clearing overnight into early Thursday as an area of drier air arrives. This means a little bit of sunshine can be seen to start the day Thursday, before clouds thicken up ahead of the next low pressure area. This will the first in a series of 2 or 3 low pressure waves that travel just south of our region through early Saturday, resulting in a much cooler and unsettled stretch of weather. It won’t rain all the time, but all in all it will be pretty dreary and chilly with a regionwide northeasterly to easterly air flow. This finally starts to back to the north during Saturday as low pressure pulls away, but upper level low pressure in the region will keep the clouds locked in and still the chance of a passing shower or patch of drizzle. So, it’ll clear out Sunday, right? Not so fast. Just as our system departs, another will be on its heels via the Ohio Valley, and will move across the region during Sunday which now looks like a slightly milder but still unsettled day. Sorry!

TODAY: Early sun east, thicker clouds from west quickly with showers and possibly a thunderstorm west to east across the area mid through late morning. Thinning / breaking clouds with partial sun possible first half of afternoon then heavier clouds move through again with scattered to broken showers and isolated thunderstorms, possibly containing hail and gusty wind. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, S-SW 5-15 MPH afternoon, shifting to WSW late-day. Winds can be variable and over 20 MPH with brief strong gusts around any heavier showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Early-evening showers South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise variably cloudy. Lows 46-51. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partial sun morning, then cloudy. Periodic rain by late-day. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periodic rain and drizzle. Areas of fog forming. Lows 46-53. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle, especially through midday. Patchy fog early. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and possibly a shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and possible showers. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Highs 55-62. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

Improving weather early next week – drier & milder – as upper level low pressure moves away and high pressure moves in. This will be followed by another cooling trend as the next upper level trough and a couple disturbances associated with it bring more clouds and some wet weather chances mid to late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Cool, drier weather early period, then a warming trend. Unsettled weather may return by the end of the period.

141 thoughts on “Wednesday May 8 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  1. Cold enough in the higher elevations of western New England (including the Berkshires) that mix/snow showers may occur Friday night and Saturday morning. Spring in New England! šŸ™‚

    1. I am glad you pointed out about the gambling addiction issue.
      With these sports betting apps right on people’s phones, it is WAAY to easy to get hooked on this stuff. Lose a bet, better chase it with another to recover and so on and so on.
      Next thing one knows, their bank account is empty, their
      retirement fund is gone and if it goes too far, their house is gone as well. It gets very very sad fast!

      BAD IDEA! VERY BAD IDEA!

      Just my personal thoughts to add to your wonderful article.

    2. For years and years (now behind me), I was a poker player but not a sports bettor ever, at all. What I saw too often were poker players who succumbed to sports betting and most were younger. The younger players were easily influenced and had little or no concept of money management.

      The very best sports bettors in this country (and I would guess overseas) treat sports betting as a job, a profession, and a business. The greatest sport bettor in the USA was Billy Walters who joined the famed Computer Group. He won millions and millions, but the lengths he and his teams had to go to become a winner would fill a book. Today’s young sports bettors bet on hunches and have very little chance of being long-term winners.

      As a side story, Billy reportedly made a $70,000 bet on a Red Sox game and lost, but still ended up having a winning day overall. Incidentally he gave millions to charity.

  7. The whole school, grades 6-8, is taking the math MCAS today and tomorrow (2 sessions).

    Its both a relaxing and torturous experience for me.

    Its relaxing because I know they have worked hard all year, know the math and care about how they do.

    Its torturous cause, well, I won’t know how they did til next Sept.

  9. Special weather statement out for the storms in southern CT. 30 mph winds pea size hail

  13. We topped at 80 even yesterday and dropped to 51 overnight. We are at 58 now with 0.27 rain and counting

  15. Thanks, TK!

    I know where you’re coming from, Tom! You are an outstanding educator and I know your kiddos will shine on the MCAS. It is, most times, a tortuous adventure getting to this part of the school year. But it does have its rewards. Your students will shine on their exams.

    Right now, with about 25 days of school left, I am speaking nearly all class in Spanish and the kids pretty much understand me. They can respond appropriately (well, most of the time šŸ™‚ )
    and are rewriting a creative story and really doing a great job, even my toughest class! I/they couldn’t do any of this on September 1.

    Somehow, it’s all worth it in the end!

  18. KBOX radar is DOWN!!!

    Why is that the KBOX radar for BOSTON is DOWN
    whenever there is a threat of severe weather???????

    I just don’t get it!

    2. Ah, ok !

      It was like the precip over Marshfield suddenly dropped in intensity, it didn’t fully disappear, but it looked on radar like light rain. I look out the window, and it was a torrent !!

  19. Quick peak at the latest HRRR for this afternoon northern CT RI and South Shore seem to be in the bullseye for the storms this afternoon.

      2. I would say you have a better chance than I do of seeing a thunderstorm this afternoon based on some of the short range guidance. This is not a widespread severe weather event but a few places could get a nasty thunderstorm this afternoon.

        1. Thank you both. Iā€™ll try and send something your way JJ but am afraid it is the wrong direction.

  22. Tom and CF, thank you for your teaching. It’s a great profession, which is sometimes underappreciated. I appreciate all the teachers I had, even the ones who told me off when I was daydreaming or looking at the clock (which I was!).

      1. 2nd Captain’s thoughts šŸ™‚

        Its funny on daydreaming or looking at the clock. That is not a bad thing, it can be a great thing !!

        We have had so much professional development that great learning is not accomplished by being locked in for 45 minutes + in a row.

        Great learning requires a little mental break every once in a while. While your on a break, brains are also processing what they’ve learned before the mental break.

        I never get on students if its a short mental break. I only work with students who have been on mental break all class and I get them back on task subtly, never drawing attention to the whole class.

    1. When I place the cursor on the satellite, click on it and it really enlargens the image.

      Anyhow, just west of Albany, some nice cumulus developing and can see the sun in parts of CT that JJ is seeing.

  25. Tom, I agree that some mental breaks are important. But the teachers who reprimanded me – Miss Tunner, Miss Woodman, Mrs. Deutsch, Mr. Newman and others – did so because I sometimes would watch the clock from, say, 1pm until the school bell rung. I was a notorious clock-watcher.

    During parent-teacher meetings they’d convey to my mother (and sometimes my father, too, when he did attend) that “Josh seems bright enough but he doesn’t pay attention in class, likes to fool around and always seems to forget his homework.”

    Fearful of my parents’ wrath at the ages of 10 to 13 I sometimes forged signatures on report cards until I got busted and then get told by teachers that what I did was a crime (I’d have nightmares about prison).

    Yes, for me school was hell.

    All this said, in retrospect I have tremendous admiration for teachers who put up with me.

    1. Well, you clearly did a lot of excellent learning in school.

      Your excellent articles on varied and important issues speak for themselves.

  26. Thanks, TK.

    I have to be in Boston by 5:30, but could go earlier; Iā€™ll be watching radar, but do you have any advice about the best time to drive in from western suburbs (barring random traffic stupidity)? Thanks.

    2. I don’t know if it would add to it, but there is an extremely noticeable boundary in eastern areas near the Mass Pike and Braintree split.

      60s, humid, SSW winds south of it, 50s and NE wind north of it.

    3. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop this
      afternoon over parts of eastern NY and New England. A diurnally
      destabilizing airmass will become weakly unstable (500-1000 J/kg
      MLCAPE) along/ahead of a prefrontal surface trough. Ample
      deep-layer shear attendant to a Northeast U.S. shortwave trough,
      will act to organize updrafts. A mix of multicell and modest
      supercell characteristics are forecast before activity moves over
      more-stable air and/or offshore, and weakens by early evening.
      Isolated hail/damaging gusts are the primary expected hazards.

  33. Thank you, TK, for keeping the storms at bay during dr trip and visit. Now we have to work on the same for Jean.

    1. Next is a cardio appointment for my mom at 4PM. Looks like that’ll be a drizzle event only. She doesn’t mind. Brother just wanted to avoid taking her in a downpour if possible.

  38. Just saw a new severe thunderstorm warning coming into the Fitchburg area. Half dollar size hail 60 mph wind gusts with that storm.

  43. The northern cell has an interesting appendage on its northwest side.

    Based on my limited knowledge, I donā€™t think I see a couplet near that, but who knows ā€¦..

  47. Latest Severe Thunderstorm Warning

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
    FOR WINDHAM…NORTHERN TOLLAND…NORTHERN HARTFORD…SOUTHERN
    WORCESTER…WESTERN NORFOLK…SOUTHEASTERN HAMPDEN AND NORTHWESTERN
    PROVIDENCE COUNTIES…

    TORNADO…POSSIBLE
    HAIL THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
    MAX HAIL SIZE…1.00 IN
    WIND THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
    MAX WIND GUST…60 MPH

  48. Looking at radar that severe warned storm in northeastern CT looks to be producing a good amount of hail based on the colors showing up on radar.

  53. Caught a couple of rumbles and now a quick heavier drenching. Where I live the storm has to fight against cooler more stable air. Sky is brightening up a little.

  56. My well is filling up again. It had mostly dried out by the end of April/early May. But the rains have returned. Not as prolific as before, however, looking ahead I think this month could also wind up above normal in terms of precipitation.

    1. I am at one of our branches in downtown Plymouth and it is wild. Good size hail and all.

      1. wow Sue – no hail here but a friend in Southbridge said they had hail.

        Be safe please

  59. Speaking of sports talk on NY sports talk is the possibility of conference finals in the NBA and NHL with NY VS BOS. It is a great time to be a Knicks and Rangers fan. A thrilling Rangers win in double overtime last night.

  60. We just got quite a hail storm here in Padanaram Village along Buzzards Bay -I havenā€™t seen anything like that since living in Minnesota- and itā€™s only 51 degrees?!?

  61. And here sines the next stormā€¦this is number three now – meanwhile my sister is sitting in Commack Long Island where itā€™s 80 degrees –

  63. After nothing all day, now getting heavy rain, grape size hail, wind and frequent thunder/lightning. And Just as I started grillingā€¦

  64. Sure is interesting south of Boston. Looks as if the storms to my west May track just south of here

  65. JPD. I am absolutely loving the my lightning pro app. Thank you. Itā€™s been busy today.

  66. I know Iā€™ve been MIA on the blog lately, just been extremely busy with many different things. The weather today in Sturbridge was eerily reminiscent of June 1st 2011, with the tight rotation for a while following the exact same path as the June 1st tornado. I was not home to witness the storms but my sons said the lightning was constant, close, and the most vivid they have ever seen. We had hail the size of quarters and I set a record for the highest rain rate ever recorded on my weather station with a 13.71ā€ an hour rate rate, just incredible!! Unfortunately it damage the area I had graded an reseeded this past weekend. We were right on the warm front boundary all day with a 25 degree difference between Worcester and Hartford with Sturbridge right in the middle.

    1. Oh my goodness. Near 14 inches. I have friends in southbridge who said hail there also. So sorry your work was destroyed. Matt Noyes covered that area in his live broadcast for a while.

      Very scary. And very happy to see you here.

  68. Northeastern part of CT is where all the thunderstorm action in CT is happening today. Another severe thunderstorm warning.

  69. Thanks Vicki, I try to check in daily. I received 1.57ā€ from the storms, so I actually didnā€™t receive the 13. 71ā€ but the rain at its heaviest correlated to what would be 13ā€ if it rained at that intensity for one hour straight, which is impressive. It was really nice to have this blog today to check in to get valuable info from everyone here in the storms including the link to Matt Noyes live blog which was invaluable live info, thank you very much SClarke !

    1. Oops. Sorry. I had a late meeting so clearly my reading skills are asleep.

      Interesting that tom and JPD seemed to oick up on the couplets before our met outlets. Just a bit but still. And Mattā€™s live broadcast was exceptional,

  70. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan on Monday
    There’s a risk for severe weather Wednesday afternoon/evening. Elevated mixed layer will result in quite a bit of elevated instability. Large hail will be a threat with any rotating storms that develop. Low level stable layer should preclude a widespread wind or tornado threat.

    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan today
    Today’s severe weather threat was very well forecast. Steep mid level lapse rates and a lot of effective shear managed to keep the severe threat going after dark and to the coast in New England. An impressive hail event across the region!

  71. The border of southern Tennessee and northern Alabama is under siege at the moment with multiple tornado warnings, at least 1 confirmed tornado on the ground and other cells showing rotation.

    1. That was just one game. Anything can happen in one game. It was a bad game, yes. But I didn’t expect Florida to play like they did in game 1 either. A playoff series most often has several mood swings. The Bruins will bounce back.

  74. Well that was interesting earlier. Hadnā€™t checked the radar in about an hour or so and that storm rapidly developed and came in quick, catching me off guard. Havenā€™t seen hail that large in awhile. Iā€™d say marble sized. Unfortunately the dog was outside with me while I was grilling and she got freaked out when the hail started pelting her. Rather than walk 10 feet into the house, she ran down the deck stairs into the yard and was scurrying around not knowing what to do. Eventually she came around to the front of the house and I let her in the front door. She was traumatized.

    The NWS issued a severe t-storm warning for this cell just as it was passing over Coventry:

    https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1788370116033335494?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    It was a quick mover though and only dropped 0.21ā€ of rain. We had 0.59ā€ total on the day with this mornings rain. In between, it actually turned out to be a beautiful summer like day with temps in the 70s, mostly sunny skies and some humidity.

  76. 1) The “round 2” of activity today was far more widespread and longer lasting than I expected and than any guidance had.

    2) There is a trend for late week a lot of people may approve of. More on the discussion in the morning!

Comments are closed.