Thursday May 9 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)

50 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

Forecasts always present challenges in the longer term as it’s naturally more difficult to predict the air flow through the atmosphere and its impact on a given region the further out from “now” you get. Sometimes those challenges are realized in a much shorter term. Such was the case yesterday. Yes, the forecast was “right” in terms of a warm front causing one swath of showers and embedded thunder earlier in the day and then an approaching cold front setting off showers and thunderstorms later. The hail potential was definitely realized in the storms with many reports of it across portions of southern New England. What was a bit of a surprise was the coverage of the second round of activity, and the persistence of it. I was definitely lead a bit astray by buying too much into shorter range guidance that had the activity, but less widespread and of a shorter duration. But now that show is over, and we have some other forecast adjustments to make. You might recall several days ago I indicated some hope for Thursday in a longer stretch of unsettled weather starting Wednesday, then abandoned the idea based on more pessimistic looking guidance. Well, once again, should have stuck with the other idea. High pressure indeed noses its way in enough to give us a fairly decent day today. While we won’t have wall to wall sun, there is a good mix of sun and clouds across the region to start the day, with some high clouds streaming in from the west above patchy lower level stratocumulus clouds drifting north to south. This north-to-south motion is indicative of that drier air flow at the surface, and the difficulty of the higher clouds from the west to overspread and thicken during the day today indicate somewhat drier air above us too. It is tonight, finally, when a wave of low pressure approaches New England from the southwest, and the surface wind turns more northeasterly, that we’ll see clouds collect in a more concentrated fashion. A few of the lower clouds around during the day can build up just enough to produce a few rain showers mainly over southern NH and the northern half of MA, but these will be rather isolated. From late evening tonight to the very early hours of Friday morning, we can see an area of rain from the low pressure area to our southwest moving into the region, only to be obliterated by a renewed push of drier air. While I expect cloud cover to be more dominant on Friday than it will be today, the rain chance will likely be held at bay again after that initial push, for most of the day and into the evening. Finally, the low pressure area makes its closest pass Friday night and first thing Saturday morning as it slides east northeast, to our south. This is when a little more wet weather can occur, but most of it looks like it will be toward the South Coast, especially Cape Cod, while much of the rest of the region may be spared or just see brief light rainfall. Behind that, a shift of wind to the north will dry the region out again, and breaks in the clouds allow partial sun for Saturday, which is definitely a more optimistic outlook than I was carrying before. Does this means the entire weekend is saved? Probably not, because it still looks like another upper low and associated surface trough will drift eastward into the region on Sunday when I cannot rule out some showers, but some guidance does keep the region mainly dry for much of the day, so the potential definitely exists to salvage much of the weekend rain-free. Monday’s weather looks ok as upper level low pressure starts out nearby then shifts to the east, with a sun/cloud mix and maybe a pop up shower.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A possible shower favoring southern NH and northern MA late afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring central MA, eastern CT, and RI late evening / overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential for early-day rain favoring the South Coast. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns to areas mainly near and south of I-90. Patchy drizzle possible elsewhere, especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early-day rain potential for South Coast / Cape Cod, and patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations, otherwise clouds break for partial sun with a chance of an afternoon pop-up shower. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Early period milder and fair weather expected with a short-lived southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts offshore and a frontal boundary sits to the north and west. After this, a cooling trend and occasionally unsettled with some wet weather episodes middle to latter part of next week. More precise timing and details TBD of course.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Medium range trends point to fair, cool then milder weather to start this period then a return to somewhat unsettled weather later in the period.

50 thoughts on “Thursday May 9 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Excellent discussion as a whole and especially the early part with regards to yesterday.

    I believe you may have mentioned yesterday your mom had a Dr visit and I hope it went well.

    1. It went generally well! Still some medication tweaking in progress to deal with the fluid buildup in the legs that comes with congestive heart failure (that’s such a mean sounding term for something that isn’t really imminent failure). This is normal for someone her age. All in all, she’s doing quite well!

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    57 here at the moment with abundant sunshine.

    Ocean temp: 48.9 (Boston Buoy)

  6. Showing up on pivotal weather models today …..

    Says GraphCast GFS (looks to go out to 240 hrs)

    Heading says prototype NOAA run.

          2. Starting at the word and ……. not necessary.

            I feel bad for you, I really do.

            In your words, you come across as so combative and angry.

            I don’t know what you’ve been through, but I hope going forward, you can find some peace and find goodwill in people.

            1. same below.

              Nothing wrong with your point, except you HAD to put my vastly better in your response and in quotes.

              Its like you wish to demean in person.

              You can debate and disagree with a person without that.

              You might be right and I might be wrong both about Pivotal weather and the Bruins. Thats a very real likelihood. Just wish you could debate or disagree at a more kind level.

  7. Thanks, TK

    No school for two days on May 9-10, 1977 for many school in SE Massachusetts because of a massive power outage due to the heavy, wet snowfall (6″ in Mansfield MA).

    And, looking through my phone’s photos the other day, I found video of the light snowfall with a crabapple blossoms in full bloom in the background, May 9, 2020.

  8. Can someone please explain the TOTAL COLLAPSE of the BRUINS last night? makes no sense at all!!!
    ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    1. Florida is REALLY good !

      The Bruins had their road win and once behind 3-1 and with their recent schedule of no 2nd night off btwn games, I wonder if their energy level dropped a bit in the 3rd, though I guess they found some more to fight.

      In my mind, Florida is vastly the better team here and the Bruins have a steep climb. But, if they are disciplined, forecheck well and Swayman continues to be brilliant, they can win the series.

      1. Sure, Florida is a good Team.

        But the performance level of the Bruins fell off tremendously from game 1 !!!

        How does one explain that???

        Frankly, it pisses me off and makes me wonder about
        the integrity of the sport itself?

      2. That “vastly better” team finished 1 point ahead of the Bruins and did that on the final night of the season. They also lost all 5 meetings with the Bruins this season before last night.

        As for last night, the schedule/fatigue finally caught up to the Bruins. The Bruins went down to Florida and came home with a split. If you asked anyone before the series started what they realistically expected from the 1st 2 games, that would have been the answer. They now have home ice for the series.

        1. All true by stats.

          Florida’s top centers and forwards outmatch the Bruins by the eyeball and common sense test.

          Both great forechecking teams, I just think Florida has more finishers/”goal scorers”.

        2. Oh I understand that a split down there is perfectly fine.
          No issue.

          Fatigue? I say happy horse S*** to that.
          They are a professional hockey team in the Stanley Cup
          Playoffs. To be beaten like that is a total embarrassment imho.

          If they had lost 2-1 or 3-2, no issue whatsoever.

          To lose 6-1 is PATHETIC and to me, there is NO excuse
          for that piss poor performance.

          1. 6-1, 1-0, 23-2.
            It’s one loss.
            I can assure you the Bruins are focused on Friday. 🙂

            1. Oh I’m sure you are correct.

              These kind of responses by a team after a wonderful win have always boggled my mind. 🙂

          1. And it was made perfectly clear from the coach to Sway ( this was not your fault ) the team in front of him had no Juice ( words from the coach ) he is definitely back in net tomorrow. It was more of ok getting slammed let’s rest him ( not pull him )

  9. Thanks TK. Time to travel home today from sunny California. We had a great 5 days in San Francisco, LA and Carlsbad. Now back to reality!

      1. Thanks guys. It was a great trip. It stopped raining an hour after we arrived in San Francisco last Saturday and we have had sun ever since throughout the trip.

  14. To Joshua:

    Year after year, there are too many deaths in the White Mtns. Even the best sometimes do not take these climbs as seriously as they should as perhaps is the case with this missing person.

    The death of a previously world-ranked climber, Kate Montrosova, a number of years ago near Mt Adams shocked a lot of people. It was a stark reminder.

    There is an age old golf Q&A. Q: What is the toughest course? A: The one you’re on! Likewise experienced and inexperienced climbers need to think of every climb in the same way.

  16. Made it up to 64 here with some off and on sunshine.
    Not too bad at all. In fact it was a rather nice day.

  20. Hopefully we are coming out of this cool patern in the next couple of weeks. Last of the ssw from March?

  21. Darn TK. I just,saw your post re your mom. As you know, I am Among her greatest group of fans. Glad she is improving. And that the doctors have a plan. Mac’s uncle and my dad lived years after being diagnosed with Congestive heart failure. It is a nasty term. I agree. Big hugs to her and to you.

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