Friday May 10 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)

52 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

The battle between moisture and dry air continues in our region for a few days. An area of low pressure passing south of New England this morning is starting the South Coast with a period of steady rain, with a little light rain further northwest from eastern CT to above the western reaches of the WHW forecast area in MA (CT Valley). All of this will be suppressed south while it slides east as dry air wins the battle by late morning, and the heavier overcast that sits over the region may thin out at times today. So while not as nice as yesterday turned out, we’re not facing a regionwide washout either. Another low pressure area passes by tonight and early Saturday, and this one brings some rain to the region from the South Coast to the MA South Shore, but much of that occurring prior to and right around sunrise, before that one makes an exit and dry air prevails for the most part. While there will be some breaks in the clouds to be seen Saturday, one difference from today is a slightly more unstable atmosphere can help trigger a few pop up showers, mainly in southern NH and northeastern MA, mainly during the midday hours. These should be spotty and not last long in any one area, and most of the region stays rain-free. Upper level low pressure moves into the region on Sunday and a weak surface low passes by to the south (again), and this day will turn out mainly cloudy with scattered showers around the region, but again not a widespread soaker. Early next week, this upper low has departed and we find ourselves in a warmer southwesterly flow with high pressure to our south and a frontal boundary slowly approaching in a ripply fashion from the northwest. While some episodic clouds from the frontal boundary will find their way into our region, we will otherwise see fair and mild weather, with of course a cooling influence where a southwest wind comes off ocean, especially along the South Coast. There’s some uncertainty as to whether or not the frontal boundary will be close enough by later Tuesday to bring a shower chance, so with low confidence it appears in this update today.

TODAY: Overcast morning including rain South Coast into mid morning. Mostly cloudy midday-afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with periods of rain South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 46-53. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early-day rain potential for South Coast / Cape Cod, and patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations, otherwise clouds break for partial sun. A pop up shower possible especially midday hours favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible mainly western areas. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Cooling trend in general. Hard to time specific unsettled weather threats but a couple of them exist, probably very early period and again mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

General best idea of pattern points to fair, milder weather to start this period then a return to somewhat unsettled weather later in the period with a cooling trend.

52 thoughts on “Friday May 10 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  8. Thanks TK.

    JJ mentioned this yesterday but four years ago we had some incredible cold and widespread late season accumulating snow in New England. A general snowfall overnight and then a heavy snow squall the following day. It was certainly the latest I can ever recall receiving accumulating snow here. This was my post and pics from 4 years ago yesterday:

    MAY 9, 2020 AT 3:37 PM

    Thanks TK.

    Pretty incredible day for May 9. Had a nice coating of snow this AM that whitened everything. The last of the snow and ice did not melt off the deck until 12:30PM! Very blustery and cold out….still haven’t even made it out of the 30’s here.

    Here is a shot I took of the deck before sunrise…

    https://imgur.com/Ei6EeuL

    And another of the front lawn. Dog said what the hell is this!?

    https://imgur.com/MTBTfkS

    1. A few of my other posts from that day…

      Amazing radar loop for May 9…..

      https://twitter.com/PWMwxME/status/1259110372050640896?s=20

      eweather
      @Eweather13
      8h

      May 9th and 6” of snow in Arlington VT! Wow. Snow ratios over 10:1! Who said you can’t see that in May?

      https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1259086654997921793?s=20

      Mitch
      @VermonsterWx
      9h

      Blizzard in May!!! 3.7” so far and stacking quickly! 24° F. Snow is light and fluffy! Absolutely incredible! #vtwx
      @NWSAlbany

      https://twitter.com/VermonsterWx/status/1259072955553808384?s=20

      Nicholas Isabella
      @NycStormChaser
      9h

      Whiteout conditions under this very heavy band of snow in Margaretville, New York. Almost 1in per hour rates! Can’t believe this is may 9th!

      https://twitter.com/NycStormChaser/status/1259067791778492418?s=20

    2. Sugarloaf ME recorded 10″ that day and Central Park in NYC even had light snow, tying the record for latest ever snowfall there.

  9. It’s not often you see a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and a Winter Storm Warning issued from the same NWS office, but here they are:

    https://www.weather.gov/hfo/

    Should be interesting weather when I land this evening. (And now you know why there may not be a Weekend Outlook next Thursday).

    1. Wow. One location I would expect May snow even less than here…. but guess it can snow that high up any time of the year with the perfect conditions.

      Enjoy your trip!

      1. We are actually doing a cruise. We leave Honolulu tomorrow, stop in Maui Sunday into Monday, Hilo Tuesday, Kona Wednesday, Kauai Thursday into Friday, return to Honolulu early Saturday morning, but we aren’t flying home until Sunday afternoon.

        This is by far the most expensive vacation I’ve ever taken, but I expect it may be well worth it.

        1. It may well be! Don’t miss the spouting crabs on the south coast of Kaua’i — and the avenue of trees leading to that beach. It’s a beautiful spot.

    1. We were thinking the same thing at the same time. See below. I unfortunately think we are going to have too many clouds around.

    1. Too bad we will be mostly cloudy tonight….

      Kyle J Gillett
      @wxkylegillett

      Weather service NDFD Cloud Coverage (%) forecast for 5z Saturday while strong geomagnetic storming *may* be taking place, *possibly* resulting in a widespread aurora display for northern and even middle latitudes.

      (1a Sat ET, 12a Sat CT, 11pm Fri MT, 10pm Fri PT)

      https://x.com/wxkylegillett/status/1788748245734191121

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024051012&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024051012&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I think we’ve had 1 and maybe 2 shots of relatively humid feeling days this May with dps in the mid-high 50s, even touching 60F here and there and the 12z GFS offers 2 more such days in the next 8 days.

    I don’t have any data to prove or disprove what I’m about to say.

    I feel like we’ve had a bit more humidity overall this May than in past Mays. I feel like most Mays, we get those 65-75F days, but with downsloping WNW winds and the dps are 20-30F or we have high relative humidity days when its 50F with a dp of 48F when its cloudy, damp and NE winds.

    But this year, I feel like we’ve had a little more mild/warm and muggy than we get most Mays.

    1. After 10PM, especially after midnight until first light.
      The usuals apply: Away from light pollution, let eyes adjust, look lower on horizon as any visible ones would be most prominent down low in the sky.

        1. While you’re out there, don’t forget to set up the fans to be sure the clouds stay away.

  22. Same here, thought I would have to travel to Iceland or Alaska to see this!

    We drive to the boat launch at Bolton Lake about 10 min from our house and snapped these pictures…

    https://imgur.com/MVjv9wx

    https://imgur.com/UWW1axw

    Of course the iPhone camera does wonders and it isnt quite this vivid to the naked eye but it was incredible nonetheless!

    2. Yeah, wasnt expecting to be able to walk right out my front door and see something like this. We lucked out with the clouds breaking in time. I wonder if there are going to be any issues with power or communications tomorrow. I mean, there are pictures like you and I took coming out of places as far south as Pensacola, the Bahamas and Africa!

  26. Incredible…360 panorama from the top of the Swiss Alps:

    Collin Rugg
    @CollinRugg

    JUST IN: The ongoing geomagnetic storm has been upgraded to level 5 out of 5, or “extreme,” making it the first G5-level storm since 2003.

    Scientists are warning of potential disruptions to communications over the weekend.

    GPS, spacecraft and satellite navigation may also be impacted. U.S. utility companies are monitoring the potential threat to the power grid as well according to CNN.

    The video below was posted by BBC Meteorologist
    @MetMattTaylor
    .
    “This is the astounding view as far south as Switzerland a short while ago… on top of Jungfraujoch,” he posted.

    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1789090497971290254

  30. Vicki, I’m so glad your wish of seeing the northern lights has come true enjoy every minute of them. My wife is into photography as a hobby and has been waiting for this her whole life.

    1. Thank you ❤️. I love this and know exactly how excited your wife must be. It’s been a tough week for me and I canf imagine a more special mothers day gift

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