Saturday May 11 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)

COMMENTARY

If you did not get to see last night’s display of the aurora borealis which was widespread across not only New England, but a good portion of the North America, including as far south as Alabama and Georgia, seek out photos online. I witnessed it myself and am in awe at how magnificent it was. I’d seen the display before, in a barely-visible state near the horizon a few times, but never close to this magnitude. Am I ever glad my sky forecast was wrong for most of the region. πŸ™‚

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

A large scale northeasterly flow continues today and the dry air that allowed the northern lights to be seen last night will help much of the region start the day with sun today, but a little more moisture coming from the Atlantic will help clouds to pop up and move in from the northeast, and a few of these can produce showers, though they will be isolated in nature, and most of the region will have another rain-free day. Upper level low pressure drifts into the region Sunday but the surface reflection of low pressure is rather weak and will move south of our area. At most, a few showers will work into the region Sunday afternoon but I’m not expecting very widespread coverage, making it possible that the entire weekend is rain-free for many areas. This feature exits Monday and that day, as well as Tuesday, will feature a warm up with a southwesterly air flow as an area of high pressure scoots to our south. A frontal boundary approaches later Tuesday, but I feel its associated showers will wait until sometime that night to move in. The front and a wave of low pressure likely combine for an unsettled day on Wednesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower but most areas remain rain-free. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Best chance of unsettled weather mid period. Overall pattern features a cool-down early in the period, then a warm-up later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Mild and fair to start, then a cooling trend with mid to late period unsettled weather possible.

57 thoughts on “Saturday May 11 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank uou TK
    Could not see the lights from my house. Just too much light pollution
    around. and not the best view of the North.

    Ocean temp; 49 6 ( Boston buoy)

    Only 54 here yesterday.

    Let’s hope it is a tad better today.

    Tough with that ocean flow.

  2. Thanks TK. Posted some pics on the previous blog of the aurora. The iPhone did all the work and of course that yellow bright thing we have in the sky :). I was in absolute awe and always thought I would need to travel to see it. A true bucket list item for me. Just spectacular!
    https://imgur.com/a/tx5bwvC

  3. Just like in meteorology, when you look at data for a long period of time, you don’t encounter many surprises.

    And so in my field I’m not easily stunned by negative public health statistics. I’ve kind of seen it all after more than 25 years in the space (30 if you include my graduate/PhD work). But the data on alcohol abuse in the U.S. is sobering (pun intended). I revisited this topic after a 4 year hiatus and here’s what I found: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/05/11/the-dramatically-rising-toll-of-alcohol-abuse/?sh=449f7f8f71e9

    By the way, just in case you were wondering, I’m not a teetotaler. While I don’t drink much, I periodically enjoy ales like a Belgian Duvel.

  4. Thanks, TK!

    Northern Lights over Fulton’s Pond in Mansfield at 3 am:

    https://imgur.com/ECk3gKH

    Photo credit to Michael D. Wilson, As Mike describes it, “I went out around 2 AM and it was cloudy and I stood around for almost an hour. Almost gave up, then the clouds broke.”

  5. Was just out to the store. Car thermometer was reading 56.
    My equipment at home says ONLY 53, although it touched 54 a while ago.

    Even with that, I found it to be “comfortably” cool out with the sun peeking out between ocean clouds. An unzipped sweatshirt
    was all that was necessary. πŸ™‚

  6. This time of year as long as the sun is out I don’t mind that it is cool. It could easily be hot and humid this time of year.

            1. Tried a different browser on a different computer and view them all no issue.

              Spectacular!! Thank you.

              Must be some setting on my browser (Firefox) ???
              I’ll bet it would work after a restart. πŸ™‚

  7. Got down to 36F here this AM. Actually had to turn the bed heaters back on last night. Won’t be turning the house heat back on though come hell or high water!

    Skiing at Killington and Jay Peak still going strong with the cooler temperatures. This will be Jay Peaks final weekend of the season while Killington plans to stay open until the weekend of June 1.

    Jay Peak webcam:

    https://jaypeakresort.com/resort/photo-day

    https://b9.hdrelay.com/camera/6526ffaa1c3bd6b512d2585d/snapshot

    Killington webcam with still a monumental amount of snow on the Superstar Glacier:

    https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/superstar-cam

  8. 3 feet of new snow earlier this week in the Wasatch of Utah pushed Snowbird over 600″ on the season for the second year in a row. Great news for late season skiing there as they will likely stay open until June again this year.

    Unfortunately the large amount of heavy wet snow triggered some large avalanches and one of them turned deadly as three backcountry skiers were swept away and only one survived.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/other/missing-skiers-bodies-found-everything-we-know-about-deadly-utah-avalanche/ar-BB1maIQT?ocid=BingNewsSerp

    1. The two killed were experienced backcountry skiers. One of them, from Bozeman, Montana, scaled Denali last year and was days away from making his second trip.

      This was the blog from his trip last year. The pictures are absolutely breathtaking:

      https://mtnchronicles.com/cassinmessner

      So tragic but he died doing what he loved.

  9. Thought I saw snow being forecast in Kawaii. It’s often on top higher peaks like Mauna Kea.

    All of a sudden I can’t find the forecast I was originally looking at.

        1. Thanks Tom. from what you posted an Advisory is in effect and the Warning is cancelled.

  10. I am positive all of you have been waiting breathlessly for the Mother’s Day Forecast in the Drake Passage.

    Temps: 35-36 F
    Wind: SW 35-40 MPH
    Wind Gusts: SW 40-50 MPH
    Wave Height: 24-26′
    Precip: <1%
    Skies: Overcast

    I think winter begins in June BTW. Interestingly temps don't vary much by season. Waves can get higher in the winter at times. I think the highest recorded waves have been in the neighborhood of 60'.

  11. Thanks TK. Mark, on our flight to California last week, I got some amazing views of the snow in the Rocky Mountains. Crazy they are still getting dumped on!

    1. It’s been another banner year for snow out west! Palisades Tahoe got 26” of new snow early this week as well. Not sure if that was when you were out there but it was definitely an unseasonably cold storm for this time of year in northern CA.

  12. First camping weekend, having a great time !

    But it’s cold down here by the Cape Cod Canal.

    Well, at least the rest of the camping season should be warmer πŸ™‚

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