DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

Like last week, we have a warm-up to start the week off today and Tuesday. Today we moderate over yesterday quite nicely as we’ve lost the clouds and will turn the wind around to southwest with high pressure to our south. Tonight, a warm front will cross the region with clouds and maybe a few showers – much of the region probably staying dry or just seeing brief rain. Tuesday warms even more over today behind the front, with more sunshine and a slight up-tick in the humidity that those sensitive to it may notice. A cold front approaches at night, but most of the energy for its showers will stay to the north, with just perhaps a few wandering into the region overnight and early Wednesday as the front moves in and washes out. While this is happening, low pressure organizes to our south. The trend on this from guidance has been for it to occur further and further south, to the point where the primary rain threat from the low is confined to the South Coast. It looks like that at this point and my hints of a mostly cloudy but largely rain-free forecast for Wednesday as discussed on yesterday’s blog are carried over and solidified today. There’s a little uncertainty on medium range guidance for late week with a few different scenarios depicted, but the one I am leaning toward carries the surface low out to sea Thursday while an upper level disturbance brings a sun/cloud mix and maybe a shower. And Friday, another trough approaches from the west with an increase in clouds. Further refinement of this later-week outlook will take place on the next update.

TODAY: Cloud patches early to mid morning in some locations, otherwise a fair amount of sun then some additional clouds arriving later in the day. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 73-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers late evening and overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible in the morning favoring areas north of I-90. A bit of rain possible near the South Coast. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

My outlook continues to largely ignore medium range guidance in anticipation of some errors, so after an early unsettled start for the weekend of May 18-19 it should improve with a milder finish than it starts out. Fair weather early next week, maybe unsettled by middle of next week with milder weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Upper level low pressure may bring cooler and somewhat unsettled weather early to mid period – details TBD. Improvement may follow for Memorial Day Weekend which is May 25-27. Low confidence based on how far in the future this is, so follow updates.