Tuesday May 14 2024 Forecast (7:29AM)

38 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

A spring blocking pattern is going to create better weather than we might have otherwise during the next 5 days. Now don’t get the idea that we have 5 straight top-ten days ahead. We don’t. And we’ll see a variety of weather. Follow along to gain and understanding of how I think this will play out…

A bit of an atmospheric chess game will work out mostly in our favor, keeping the weather on the drier side more often than not in the days ahead. First, a warm front is passing by first thing this morning, having produced lot of clouds and a few scattered showers overnight. But today, we’ll have a late spring feel in much of the region, even a little preview of summer, as the temperature surges well into the 70s to around 80 for highs, away from the cooling influence of a southwest wind off the Atlantic which will prevent much of the South Coast from even reaching 70. A cold front will be approaching the region tonight, but the short range guidance has been steadily trending this feature weaker and slower and I believe this will be the case. The front never really truly moves through the region at all. We get more clouds tonight and a few showers may wander into the region into the early part of Wednesday, favoring northern portions of the WHW forecast area, and then that should be about it for that front for us as it pretty much washes out. Our cool-down will result from low pressure forming and moving out south of our region later Wednesday through Thursday, turning our wind more easterly off the Atlantic. But the blocking in place wants to force this system further south, another trend I’ve been following over several days on medium range guidance, now pretty much confirmed by short range guidance. So the forecast for this feature is for some rain to occur near the South Coast Wednesday night and part of Thursday, but the majority of the region to miss out on the rain from it. This low sits off to our southeast then on Friday and Saturday, far enough way to keep rain away, but close enough to exert influence on the next approaching low, slowing it down and keeping it further south and west, hence a now mainly dry forecast for both Friday and Saturday. This part of the forecast, of course, is lower confidence than the next couple days, so check updates going forward.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early, then mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs ranging from near 60 Cape Cod to around 80 from Metro Boston west and north. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers late evening and overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible in the morning favoring areas north of I-90. A bit of rain possible near the South Coast late in the day. Highs 60-67 South Coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain near the South Coast early. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

Fair, milder weather early to mid period. Shower chance increases later in the period as an evolving zonal flow allows a trough and front to move in from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Early-period unsettled weather potential, then improvement following. Temperatures start cooler, then moderate.

38 thoughts on “Tuesday May 14 2024 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 67 he,re yesterday.
    54 now.

    Ocean temp: 51.3 (Boston buoy)s
    Was looking at Fairbanks, AK where it will be in the 60s all week. Interesting how much it has warmed way up there, while we have been fighting a cold sea breeze.

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Another fairly pleasant spring period. While it’s been on the cool side, we haven’t experienced much raw weather.

  3. I’ll take sea breeze over hot and humid. Of course, we’ll get our fair share of hot and humid over the next ~110 days, but the longer HH periods hold off the better.

    1. My wife certainly would, but I’d almost rather see the HHH. 🙂
      I CAN’T STAND that ungodly FRIGID SPRINGTIME sea breeze!!!

    1. A 26 year old guiding 13 and 14 year olds. Makes me wonder where the parents were. This is a case where it might be good to have the families pay the cost. Thank heavens no rescuers were injured

    1. Thanks SSK for posting about the controlled burn in Plymouth yesterday.

      Produced a brief, but very noticeable amount of smoke.

  11. We’re at 70 now. A safe bet that we make the 70s today, no? 🙂

    Will it reach 80? We shall see. Eric forecast an 81 for Boston.

    Time will tell.

  12. 72.5 here. I was hoping it would warm more slowly so I could have a small fire with coffee and book.

  13. I’m so happy we have spring temps today, I had enough of the frigid temps we have been having.

    Logan: -2.5F departure for May
    Providence: -2.0F
    Worcester: +0.5F
    Hartford: +2.4F

    2 different New England’s this May.

  15. UV is very high, which of course makes sense. During the next 10 weeks the sun will be at its peak, given the earth’s tilt.

    Frankly, 75F and sunny, which it is here, is a 10 in my book (for May, that is).

  16. I think a more Southerly component to the wind in Eastern MA will likely prevent temperatures from reaching 80, UNLESS there
    is a Shift to SW or WSW very soon. 🙂

  18. Ceiling fan is on for first time this year. I’ll be shocked if upstairs crew doesn’t turn ac on

      1. When the puck is in your zone and as you move the puck out of your zone, past the center, blue and red line in the opposing team’s zone with no deflections or it being touched by another player. There’s no penalty on the play, but there is a faceoff back near the net you’re defending AND you cannot make a change of players.

        1. Thank you Joshua. It makes sense and I am saving this so I can watch for it to understand even better.

        2. Icing has a time and a place. The B’s did ice the puck a couple of times towards the end, but that was the right thing to do. Maneuvering the puck out of your zone can be tricky, especially in a 6 on 5 situation.

          Just to complicate things, Vicki, if the other team has an actual power play (a 5 on 4, for example) there is NO icing if you clear the puck the way I described above.

          1. I will say this, hockey has a lot of rules, but I find them more logical than football rules. There are quite a few rules in football which I really struggle to find the logic in.

  21. Makes good sense. Saved that too. Thank you. One son in law was an excellent hockey player in his younger days.

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