Wednesday May 15 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

Frontal boundary to north, low pressure to south. These players result in a kind of disorganized unsettled weather day. Patchy rain is around, more to the west, this morning and should diminish with time, but can’t rule out a few stray showers wandering northward in a southerly air flow today. Tonight, low pressure to our south gets closer and the wind turns more easterly. This is when that low’s rain shield works northward into the region, only to start getting eaten away at and pushed back to the south by blocking high pressure to the north during Thursday. This period of time will show a cool-down with a broad scale onshore flow more established. The weather for Friday and the weekend depends on the magnitude of the block and the ability of high pressure to keep additional moisture at bay. Today, I continue to lean to the drier forecast, similar to that of yesterday. But this is not a super high confidence forecast, so monitor updates.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy rain morning. Isolated showers afternoon. Highs 60-67 South Coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns, especially South Coast to I-90 belt. Lows 50-57. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain most likely in the morning I-90 belt southward, then diminishing. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Fair, milder weather early to mid period. Shower chance increases later in the period with a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Improving conditions, cooler start then warming trend.

70 thoughts on “Wednesday May 15 2024 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Touched 78 here yesterday.

    60 overnight and 64 now.

    ocean temp: 52.9 (Boston buoy)

  2. Thanks TK !

    Kudos to the Bruins last night !

    My opinion is they are the less talented team in the series and they were the much better team last night.

  4. 3rd day this month with dps in the 50s.

    Not uncomfortable, yet it gives the air a bit of a summer feel.

  11. Harvey’s Summer 2024 Outlook is tonight at 5:00 pm on Ch. 5. If I’m not busy, I’ll try to watch.

    “Summer Scorcher or Rainy Rerun?”

    2. I will be interested to see/hear what he says.

      The summer outlooks I have seen have generally been …….. above avg temps with either avg or below avg precip for the northeast.

  13. Thank you for the Happy Birthday wishes. It’s good to reach the age of 21! 🙂

    My birthday coincides with the 1st day of the hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific … and all is quiet.

  17. Most dew points across the area are at 57.
    My equipment is reading 61. I KNOW that is incorrect.
    Not sure what to do about it.
    It doesn’t really have a sensor. I believe it has a built in
    Calculation computing dew point from the outside temperature and the outside humidity.

    Formula:

    Td = T – ((100 – RH)/5.) where Td is dew point temperature (in degrees Celsius), T is observed temperature (in degrees Celsius), and RH is relative humidity (in percent).

    I just CONFIRMED that is EXACTLY how my dew point temperature is derived.

    I KNOW the temperature is accurate, therefore, IF the dew point is off, there must be an issue with the HUMIDITY sensor.

    Any ideas out there? I mean I could offset the humidity reading until my dew point is 57 or very close to it.

    Many thanks

    1. I just CONFIRMED that is EXACTLY how my dew point temperature is derived.

      Except I have it in degrees F.

  19. I decided to ck my station readings against Mr K readings.

    Mr K 71.6, 55.7dp, 1.1 with 3.6 gust.

    Temp still ticking up as I type.

          1. We suspected it wasn’t a usual “shelter in place”

            Usually shelter in place are enacted for a medical incident or something that is not a threat, but the 8th grade was science “MCASing” and to have any announcement during MCAS is extremely unusual. Also, they did ask us to lock our door, which is not usually in shelter in place. A usual shelter in place is really to let everyone know they can’t leave the room until an all clear is given. The news is correct that it lasted 20-25 mins.

              1. That’s a location of town, that in the 20 yrs I have taught at FBMS, has offered our most serious lockdowns.

                One was a murder, another was a robbery in that specific area and this today.

                One of the lockdowns, I don’t remember which exceeded an hour, picture 20 (11 and 12yr olds) silent, on the floor in a dark room. Then, we were moved to MHS into the gymnasium and then went through a long dismissal. That was nuts ! This is a good 10-15 years ago.

                2. I may write a comic novel on all the experiences of a middle school teacher.

                  Here’s an excerpt ……

                  Hall duty to monitor kids returning from lunch is deafening. Its volume 500 on the stairwell. You can’t hear a thing, its so loud. ……… Two minutes later, these same kids who were blowing out my ear drums are now barely audible in class, when answering a math question. “Johnny, what’s 7 x 3?” …… The student whispers an answer. “a little louder, please, I ask” Again, Johnny, who was the loudest student on the stairwell, whispers an answer I can’t possibly here. This goes on 3 more times, before I switch to asking Sarah …….

              2. Exactly, grown adults biting each other and hitting each other with keys. I guess better than shooting. But like what are we showing to our kids.

      1. Agreed !

        Been busy with school and stuff and I haven’t been as deeply into the models lately.

        So, I was just taken aback by this QPF forecast. I didn’t think it is supposed to rain this much and TK’s forecast, if I am reading it correctly, doesn’t support this ….. I think.

    1. Oh yes ! That was bizarre.

      I think Sam Bennett cross checked Charlie Coyle into Swayman and that goal should have been disallowed in game 4.

      With that said, I think given the 3rd period of game 4, Florida may still have come back and won, but still it would have been nice to see the obvious call made.

  23. Speaking of hockey I am concerned about my Rangers now that the series is 3-2 after the Rangers led 3-0. Game six in Raleigh tomorrow night with Carolina having the momentum in the series and now playing at home.

    1. 2 great teams.

      I was surprised it started 3-0.

      Good luck JJ. Both teams are championship level, in my opinion.

      1. No Rangers fan thought they would be up 3-0. They could have swept the series if three of the shots didn’t off the post. They lost game four by one goal. They played there worst period last game giving up four goals . I am concerned with Carolina home tomorrow night. If this goes to game seven Saturday then I am worried.

    2. I like that Rangers team. Solid.

      Obviously pulling for the Bruins but if the Rangers make the finals I would not mind seeing them win it all.

      From the West I do like Edmonton because I would not mind seeing McDavid get a chance to raise the cup. So of the teams still playing … Boston / Edmonton / New York are my top 3, Bruins #1 of course.

  25. Certainly a tad humid today, but not awful. My run was okay.

    Saw an ice cream truck in the Esplanade Park – it’s there periodically from late March through early November – and was reminded of this short video of an English girl complaining about ice cream inflation (it’s a bit tough to understand due to her Northern accent, but if you watch it a couple of times you’ll get the hang of it; I can tell you one thing, this girl is going places in life, she’s got a lot of chutzpah): https://twitter.com/WhiteSoxic/status/1790453250207986082

  26. I had to offset my humidity sensor by -7 to get my dew point to register anywhere near accurate. I will be keeping a close eye on that in case I need to tweak it again. 🙂

        1. Well, interesting. With my adjustment, My dew point now reads 59.
          Logan: 59
          Norwood: 59
          Bedford: 59

          That gives me a little bit of confidence that my adjustment is good. At least for the moment with these conditions.

          Will see how it is day to day.

    1. Awesome! Always liked that guy. 🙂
      He couldn’t throw that hard, but he was pretty damn good anyway. 🙂

  29. Bill Lee pitched to contact. I remember watching a game he pitched in in the late 70s at Yankee Stadium. It wasn’t just 3 up and 3 down. It was 3 pitches and 3 groundball outs.

  30. This storm seems to be packing quite a punch – looks like a baby Nor’easter with winds gusting to 40 off Montauk. Raining hard here in Padanaram Village along Buzzards Bay. what a blah spring.

  31. We are getting an impressive amount of rain now – possible storm totals of 3-4 inches now? This is quite a surprise

    1. The storm itself was expected to produce heavy rain. The slight difference is that the center and rain area were a bit further north than even short range guidance was pretty adamant about. But I don’t think too many people are going to see 3-4 inches when it’s all done, which is just a handful of hours from now.

      Next up: A long dry spell.

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