Tuesday May 21 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

A summer preview takes place the next couple days with high pressure off to our south and and upper level high pressure ridge on the East Coast. This allows Boston to hit 80 for the first time this season (average first date May 4, so behind that by quite a bit), likely today, definitely tomorrow. A prevailing southwesterly wind flow will be, of course, a cooling influence for the South Coast and Cape Cod. Other than fog patches and low clouds in some areas for a while this morning, and a repeat of this tonight / early tomorrow morning, the weather will be generally fair regionwide both days. One other potential exception is with a disturbance moving into northern New England from the west this evening with showers and thunderstorms, a couple of these can migrate as far south as southern NH, so keep an eye out for that. Wednesday’s shower and thunderstorm activity with an approaching cold front should stay well to the west and north of our region. That cold front does move across the region on Thursday. Trends have been a little faster and weaker for the front, so while there is a chance of the development of some showers and thunderstorms that day, they may be earlier and less widespread, with the main focus / trigger having gone by before prime heating time. Will keep an eye on that. A later arrival and efficient heating ahead of the front would increase the potential for heavier showers and stronger thunderstorms. Still eyeing the potential for a follow up low to bring at least a chance of rain for a portion of Friday. As we get into the start of the Memorial Day Weekend on Saturday, we will be in a west southwesterly air flow with a weak upper trough in the region. This will be why I can’t make Saturday’s forecast “sunny”, but I’m also thinking it won’t be that bad. With a disturbance maybe moving in quickly from the west I’m going to add the chance of a shower, but don’t cancel any plans now.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds / fog into mid morning otherwise filtered sun with variable high clouds, then more abundant sun during the afternoon before other clouds arrive from the west later in the day. The slight chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm across portions of southern NH. Highs range widely from near 60 Cape Cod to 80-87 I-95 belt westward. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Fog / low cloud areas early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs range from near 65 Cape Cod / South Coast to 83-90 I-95 westward. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds linger. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

Leaning fair May 26 then unsettled May 27 (Memorial Day) as another disturbance arrives from the west. Additional unsettled weather May 28 before a drying trend. Temperatures slightly variable but overall close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Weak upper low trends to hang around Great Lakes / Northeast with a couple disturbances bringing shower chances and variable temperatures with no extremes.

74 thoughts on “Tuesday May 21 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)”

    1. Well, it wasn’t I and HADI isn’t that old. 🙂

      Climbed Monadnock several times. It’s a pretty easy climb.
      I guess at 74, one could be slightly unsteady, resulting in a fall.

      My only falls in the last few years have been while out fishing
      where I have experienced some pretty bad falls. I now CANNOT fish in certain locations as I have to be very careful of the terrain.

      Happy all turned out well for him.

      1. I did. I will still fish, I just have to be MUCH more careful
        of the locations I chose. For example, I can’t climb down
        a rocky embankment, or a muddy one. I have to go where
        there is easy access so I don’t fall. Read that flat or slightly inclined. Nothing resembling steep.

        At my age, it is very eacy to lose balance and fall.

        of course this limits my ability to catch fish, so at some point I will have to give it up. 🙂

  5. Just an observation ….

    As of today, for Friday …..

    Ch 7 has 83F
    ch 5 has 78F
    ch 4 has 84F

    The followup low TK is eyeing would obviously have clouds, some rain and much cooler temps. And, I absolutely buy this as an outcome.

    Hopefully, future model runs will allow you to change your Friday forecast, TK. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Mass Pike northbound is in the low-mid 60s

    South of the Mass Pike, a little cooler, in the upper 50s in Marshfield, mid 50s south coast and just over 50F on Cape Cod,

    1. I know flying is the safest mode of transportation, but I absolutely dread it. I even hate thinking about it.

      1. While I have and will fly, it isn’t a favorite of mine either. I always remind myself that Mac’s sister flew 20 years internationally with pan am and 20 years nationally with delta. With some scary flights….including flying to London on Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie then being bumped last minute for the return….she always believed it was the safest travel method.

      2. I absolutely LOVE flying.

        I have to have a window seat to watch the whole way.

        Turbulence doesn’t bother me in the slightest, UNLESS there is a sudden large drop or increase in altitude over a short period. Had this occur once and my wife yelled out
        for everyone to hear: “We’re going down!!!”
        I almost barfed it made me so sick!!! All was well.

        Have made close to 50 round trip flights in my life. 🙂

        My wife HATES IT!!!!!!

  11. https://www.goes.noaa.gov/dimg/jma/fd/rb/10.gif

    Can see the tremendous amount of convection southeast of the India coastline that the Singapore Airlines jet likely passed through with the severe turbulence that Joshua posted about above.

    Guessing that it may have encountered convection that was much taller than 35,000 ft and if there was a lot of it, was not able to get around it.

  12. Boston just made 70 with a DUE SOUTH WIND.
    That means 80 is in jeopardy in Boston, UNLESS that
    wind shifts to more SW.

    Tough to reach 80 in Boston with a due South wind in MAY.

    We shall see. If it does, it will be NO more than 82 and likely 80 or 81.

    Of course I don’t give a rat’s ass if Boston makes 80.
    Frankly, I’d be very happy with 77 or 78. 🙂

  14. Thanks, TK.
    77 on my car thermometer dashing out to Dunkin for a Refresher before my 12:30 class.

  17. Tom, thanks for letting us know about the convection that caused the turbulence.

    Used to fly a lot when I was at Tufts for work conferences, and when both of my children lived overseas: About 15 times a year, which often included intermediate stops on my way to the destination and back. Given that I flew hundreds of times, I occasionally experienced severe turbulence and several aborted landings. Around 2015 – after hundreds and hundreds of flights – I began to fear flying. Now it’s to the point of dread, though I still do it in order to see my daughter. Domestically I avoid it as much as possible and once in Europe I never fly. We humans are irrational. I count myself as a sometimes very irrational person.

    1. Your welcome, but its a guess.

      I happened to see a map on CNN and then checked out that satellite.

      Its possible it was clear and it was clear air turbulence.

      I am extremely scared of flying and this is the kind of bad case scenario that runs through my head. 🙂

  18. Very summer-like feel and look outside. The light is wonderful. The humidity not so great.

  19. Turtles are out everywhere. They do a lot of sunbathing in early summer, I’ve noticed. Entire families of painted turtles were out today near the Esplanade Lagoon: Grandpa Wally was on a log sticking out of the water, Grandma Betsy on a rock near the log and their children Harry, Gus and Susan along with two grandchildren Madison and Cooper (really small turtles) were on a cement ledge, a kind of embankment . Some people think they’re ugly, but I find them beautiful and interesting creatures.

  21. Maybe if we can get 4 or 5 A380’s in a row to take off at Logan, that will switch the wind to offshore.

    Useless ob.

        1. That looks like quite a storm btwn Albany and Burlington and based on the purplish echo, may have some hail with it.

    1. One aspect is tornadoes, but it’s almost dangerous for very high straight line wind damage potential as well as 4 inch diameter hail.

  26. As of 3 p.m. the temperature range goes from 56 at Nantucket to 88 at Fitchburg across the WHW forecast area.

    Keeping an eye on those t-storms to the NW – but they should not really make it further south than a few locations in southern NH and perhaps to the border of MA this evening as they weaken and fall apart with time.

  27. 84 here with DP 64. Was nearly 85 awhile ago.
    I’m still happy with the DP adjustment.

    DP at Logan is 64 with temp 81.

    1. I’ve been chuckling at the “I’m ready for fall” posts on social media today. Hah! Not even June yet.

      But what made me laugh is I have seen the first YouTube FakeMet winter outlook posted already. Winter outlook. In May.

      Oh and btw, the FakeMet who is known as about the biggest hype master out there is calling for the “snowiest / coldest winter in years”, just like last year, and the year before, and the year before, and … Hey if you say it enough times in a row you’ll eventually be right (for the wrong reason of course). 😉

      1. Guilty as charged. I am ready for fall. But I don’t wish time away. I try and enjoy every moment I can of summer.

        1. I really need to enjoy summer as much as I can and hopefully most of it will be without the current disease flare. If it follows “typical” timeline, I have about 5 weeks left to endure.

    1. The link didn’t show to me that it is working. Does it still seem to be working to you?

  31. I’m listening to a passenger in the flight Joshua mentioned that had turbulence. He said every member of the cabin crew he saw was injurored. And even when injured, they were helping others. He said they were magnificent

    1. Interesting, my SILstressed that when seated you should always wear your seatbelt. We always did.

  32. Wishing you well, TK. Your health and that of your family is THE most important thing.

    If my family and I can stay healthy, I’ll take 100 straight days of heat and humidity.

    1. That’s strange, I’m still having luck since late afternoon.

      But, that is what I was getting earlier today (in your post)

  34. I will be so disappointed if TK’s forecast for Friday verifies. I had High hopes front would get through and an off shore wind would make for mild afternoon temps and a great late beach day to start off The Weekend on the south coast.

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