Thursday May 23 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

We hold onto the warmth for the next few days, but the temperature will be down a few notches in the region today with lots of cloudiness and a couple / few rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving through with a trough and eventually the passage of a cold front. Dew points will be up today so you’ll notice the humidity which helps drive the showers and storms too. There are three distinctive time frames for activity in the region overall. Number 1 is now, with scattered showers and storms, focus near and south of I-90 heading into southeastern MA via RI. By the time many of you read this, batch number 1 will be heading out to sea via the MA South Shore (mid morning). The next batch will be a fairly widespread swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms that moves more in a southwest to northeast fashion across the region over a few hours’ time from late morning to early afternoon. If there is a “round 3” it’s with the cold front itself from northwest to southeast between 4 p.m. and early evening, but the coverage on that looks quite limited, and there may be only a few isolated cells. Nevertheless, keep an eye out, just in case. Any storms can produce gusty winds and a few can produce hail. While severe weather is possible, its occurrence would be fairly isolated. It all goes quiet tonight and lower dew point air arrives overnight. The rain I was concerned about has shown a southward trend and I’m now calling for a 100% dry day on Friday, both in terms of no rainfall and also lower humidity, with abundant sun to be had. Many areas will still break 80 for high temps, but it will be rather comfy. Saturday will be similar – lots of sun / a few more clouds than Friday, but fairly low humidity and will be the warmest day of the 3-day Memorial Day weekend as high pressure controls the weather. As we progress through the weekend we’ll see slight cooling trend for Sunday and Monday as an upper level low pressure trough moves into the region. A weak disturbance passing through the region on Sunday may trigger a couple showers, but for the most part this will be a rain-free, nice day, with some varying cloud cover, so keep any outdoor plans and just keep an eye on the sky / radar. Memorial Day itself is when we see a greater chance of wet weather impacting most of the region. It looks like an area of surface low pressure will move into the Great Lakes that day with a warm front extending eastward from it, lifting into New England with lots of clouds and scattered rainfall areas. This may be limited and have no major impact on parades and ceremonies that take place during the morning and midday hours. The warm front may not make it all the way through the region before a cold / occluded front arrives from the west later in the day with a greater threat of showers and possible thunderstorms, but this may hold off until the end of the day or even the night, allowing a good portion of Monday to be rain-free. Fine-tuning to come on this part of the forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Early to mid morning showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-90. More widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms late morning to early afternoon. Isolated showers / thunderstorms later in the day, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 80-87 except cooler (mainly 60s) South Coast with a sharp gradient between. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but variable and potentially stronger winds around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early clouds South Coast, otherwise sunshine dominates the day. Highs 77-84, cooler Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds. Lows 53-60. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Patchy rain possible morning and midday. Showers and thunderstorms return later in the day west to east. Highs 65-72. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

A trough moving through the region brings the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms on May 28. An upper trough flattens out but still can produce a couple showers May 29 or May 30 before high pressure builds in with fair weather May 31 / June 1.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

A passing disturbance may bring a shower chance early in the period, a second disturbance brings a chance mid period, and a third late period. No major temperature extremes indicated.

81 thoughts on “Thursday May 23 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 88 here yesterday with overnigt low of 65

    Ocean temp; 56 3 (Boston buoy)

    Just a sprinkle not too long sgo from this morni g’s activity.

  4. Thanks TK
    Severe Thunderstorm Warning southwest of where I am. That storm when it was in northern NJ had ping pong size hail. Now it is down to quarter size hail.

  5. Good morning and thanks, TK.

    Yup, a couple of thunders here in Middleborough with a downpour.

  7. Looks as if a second round might be coming through central Plymouth County. Just had a lightning strike close by and hearing fire trucks.

  8. For most of the last 20+ years, we have camped at Myles Standish Forest on Memorial Day weekend.

    It started out as my wife and I and has evolved to a group of 20+ people.

    Anyway, the majority of the weekends, we have either froze, been soaked or both.

    This seems to be one of the best Memorial Day weekend forecasts I have seen, with some actually mild to warm temps and not a ton of rain. Allelujah !

    1. Of course, this makes me think we’ll have an ice cold, dreary June as payment. 🙂 :)) 🙂

  17. Long-term trends are very hard to predict. And I know nothing about how to even predict them. But it appears that in the long range there’s very little heat coming our way. There’s a frequent easterly wind component to the weather.

  18. Sadly, Charlie Colin, founding member of Train, slipped and fell while taking a shower and died. He was 58. I won’t forget the time I was returning home in September 2012 and Train was doing a free concert on the Esplanade. Hearing all those college kids singing along (song below) was a wonderful thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVpv8-5XWOI

    1. Saw them in an intimate setting at Foxwoods a number of years ago. We had 1st or 2nd row seats. Awesome concert.

      Sad day. Sorry to hear this news.

  19. Storms coming through Hartford and along the SouthCoast. Looks like we might be in for a 7-10 split here for the next round.

    1. For you perhaps, but Boston “may” get the southern edge of
      that more Northern complex. 🙂

      1. Storms to left of me, storms to the right,
        Here I am, stuck in the middle with you 🙂

        Apologies to Stealers Wheel.

        1. Yup and you used a bowling reference whereas I usually use a football reference of Spit the Uprights. 🙂

          Either way, it describes it. 🙂

  23. I have lived in South Dartmouth for just about two years and these are the strongest thuderstorms I have experienced. Some good cloud to ground lightning bolts.

  25. We had .18″ at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound while I was sound asleep this morning.

    Finally got the my Hawaii pictures up online. Just to give you the chronological order of the trip:

    BOS-LAX
    LAX-HNL
    1 night in Waikiki Beach, then leaving Honolulu Harbor
    2 days in Maui which included a visit to the Iao Needle, the Maui Tropical Plantation, the Maui Ocean Center, and a trip along the Road to Hana
    1 day in Hilo, including a trip to Volcanoes National Park
    1 day in Kona, including a visit to a coffee farm and a cocoa farm
    2 days in Kauai, including a trip up the Wailua River to the Fern Grotto, and a trip to Waimea Canyon
    Back to Honolulu and a visit to Pearl Harbor, and over to Waikiki Beach for lunch at the Hard Rock Cafe, then an interesting luau (called Rock-a-Hula), before flying home on Sunday.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/x72rUmXaob9kzuiE8

    I’ve gotta say, this trip was EXACTLY what I needed. I honestly feel more relaxed now than I have in a few years (there are several reasons for that).

    My Weekend Outlook will be posted later this afternoon.

    3. Thanks!
      I’ll be going through these on my down time moments today!

      Glad it was a great trip!

  27. Absolutely stunning — what a wonderful trip! (I enjoyed reliving some memories.) Thank you for sharing.

  31. Dewpoints 67-68 around Boston area ….

    Overacheiving, as I feel the dps were projected 63-64F on the models

    some of these cells too, wow, torrential rain. The one in Rhode Island looks very impressive as a rain producer.

    More Tonga effect ?????????????

    1. Sure does. Did you see the lightning in my link above. I wonder if this is headed to you. Re Tonga, I’m still searching for a mer who believes it is having anywhere near as much impact as our changing climate. I am hoping Matt and Danielle might tackle it. Anyone know how to contact folks such as Jim Cantore?

      1. Jim does have twitter that maybe you could leave a comment on.

        I’m a big believer in the higher PPM CO2 in the atmosphere is warming the planet and that alone is increasing rain event totals, as warmer air holds moisture.

        Then, compounding it with more moisture available in the upper atmosphere via Tonga, double whammy.

        1. That makes sense and is along the lines of what I’m hearing, although two said specifically that they believe the impact is more from HTHHs influence on the ozone layer rather than moisture since that is in the stratosphere. Every individual so far is concerned folks will latch onto HTHH as a means to justify the changes in our climate.

          Tweeting is open to all. I stress when I email folks that I will never attribute anything directly to them. I may try though since he’d also know whatever he replies is public. If he does reply. Thank you.

  32. It has been absolutely pouring in South Dartmouth New Bedford for well
    Over an hour – I will be very interested in the monthly total of precip for May – this deluge after three inches last week

  33. I am barely missing what’s over Providence and to the south of me. Some rain but minimal thunder and lightning over us as of now.

    1. Pretty much what we have but I think you are a lot closer than we are. You don’t need rain.

      We are up to 0.29 with distant thunder

  36. I wonder what my students would think if I jumped under my desk (decent thunder)

    We’re hearing every bit of it as my room is silent due to them taking a test on inequalities. Of course !!

      1. I’d be under my desk if I was TAKING a test on inequalities! 🙂
        If you ever want to read great fiction, just read my Geometry proofs from sophomore year with Mrs. Zangari! 🙂

  37. No all that much rain here with a few distant rumbles of thunder.
    Color me NOT impressed in the slightest. 🙂

  38. I had a few flashes of lightning and couple rumbles of thunder earlier. Now the sun is out.

  39. Fairly constant distant rumbles here for an hour or so. Temp topped at 76. Dropped to 69. Back to 70 now. Still 68 dp

    1. Thanks Tom. I was just about to post that I don’t see anything else left on radar and was wondering IF that was it. But your post indicates the “possibility” something could pop as the front approaches. 🙂

    1. The win goes to Buckingham who is far more talented than
      Stevie Nicks, whatever was going on with their love life
      notwithstanding.

  43. Lots of sun with Temps up to 81 here. Have not checked DP but feels as if it’s dropped some

  44. Can we call the ALL CLEAR?
    NOTHING is happening at this time and we’re almost to 5PM

      1. The all clear will be after the front goes through. We can still get development until then.,

  46. Going back yesterday for weather history – May 22 1873, courtesy WG Calendar. An F4 tornado up to 800 yards wide tracked about 45 miles from south of Haysville to near Gladwin, Iowa. Eight people were killed, thirty were injured. There were reports that the classic “roar” of the tornado was audible up to 10 miles away.

    Along the path of the tornado, near West Chester, there were house sills driven as much as 4 feet into the ground. Also, a 400 pound hog was carried over 1 mile by the storm.

    On May 23 1946, a series of tornadoes of up to F3 intensity covered a path of about 35 miles from Craig to Pickering, Missouri. The tornado was about 300 yards wide and injured 4 people. The tornado also removed a roast from a family’s refrigerator and placed it inside their car, which was then blown into a tree. Parts of the destroyed refrigerator were found up to 1/2 mile away from the family’s home.

  47. Good walk along the shore this AM, but this afternoon the storm was so potent we lost power for 2 hours. Looking forward toward the weekend.

Comments are closed.