Friday June 7 2024 Forecast (7:34AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

Upper level low pressure controls our weather during the next 5 days. On the large scale this is a fairly simple pattern, but on the smaller scale it’s complex in that there can be several instances of passing showers that are hard to or impossible to time in advance. It still looks like this evening and Sunday morning are the highest probability time windows, with lower chances at other times, for showers in any given part of the region. While Saturday looks like a fairly dry day, there is the very slight chance of a few showers that day. Monday and Tuesday, similarly, present smaller shower chances as well, but not low enough to leave them out of the forecast. Temperatures will be held “in check” during this period – no significant heat.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms, with activity most likely late afternoon / early evening. Highs 73-80. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Only a slight chance of a brief shower. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with the best chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny with only a slight chance of a shower during the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

A more westerly flow on the larger scale, but a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast. Best shower chance comes at mid period. Temperatures somewhat variable, but no significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

A more zonal pattern continues during this period with a spell of warmer to hotter weather possible mid to late period. While a couple shower / t-storm chances exist, the overall pattern is drier.

89 thoughts on “Friday June 7 2024 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK.

    This particular stretch – yesterday through early next week – is VERY similar to summers in the Netherlands. Humidity here is higher, but otherwise this is what you get: Not hot, sun does come out for periods of time but invariably a risk of showers.

  4. I was wrong about the Celtics (not that I am a true basketball fan). They’re very good with incredible depth. Going 13 and 2 in a playoff run is unheard of. I don’t care who a team is playing. That’s really hard to accomplish.

    On baseball, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team more inept than the White Sox. They’re much worse than last year’s Oakland A’s, in part because Chicago has practically nothing talent-wise (on the other hand, you could see an inkling of hope for Oakland even last year).

  6. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 75 yesterday with an overnight low last night of 64.
    Currently 67

    The ocean is responding to this amazing stretch of mild to warm temperatures.

    Ocean Temperature: 62.2 (Boston buoy)

    In my memory, the earliest date I can recall that Boston buoy hit 62 was June 15th and that was 20-30 years ago, I think.
    And I thought it was extraordinary at the time.
    Today’s ocean temperature, I believe, is unprecedented.

  7. TK, thank you for your detailed posted last evening re:
    the HTE effect and climate change.

    I agree with you 100%

  8. re: Celtics

    I am not a basketball fan, but my wife used to play in high school and she likes it, so we watched the whole game last night. I was amazed at how fast the time past. Very enjoyable game! The Celtics are a powerful team and as BB used to say, in all phases of the game. I was impressed by their defense.

    My only concern is that the seem to rely pretty heavily on those 3-point shots. When that shooting goes cold, they can
    get in a bit of trouble, but even so, they “should” win handily. 🙂

    1. Are you down to a week, Captain ?

      We’re out next Thursday, at 11am, which is 147 hrs and 40 minutes, from now. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      On a more serious perspective, this year has worn me out more than any other year so far. Part of it is aging.

      Most of the energy drain, at least in grade 6, is classroom management.

      90% of the students don’t disrupt class with following reasonable classroom expectations.

      But that other 10%, wow. Covid did a number on some kids who just can’t sit still. And a bigger % who are absolutely chromebook dependent, they just can’t for even 2 minutes look up at the board for instruction. It is such a noticeable change in the last 5 years.

      I’m planning on teaching next year and then, we’ll see. If I am as mentally and physically worn at the end of next year as I am this year, then that will be it.

      1. My Daughter has the exact same complaint. She thinks some
        of the kids are totally out of control! Big fist fight in the hall yesterday. She’s at her wit’s end! She’ll need a month
        just to calm down.

        I don’t know how you all do it.

        BTW, I COMPLETELY BLAME the PARENTS!!!!!

        1. I hope your daughter’s last day is very close.

          Yes, I can see some parenting that needs to be improved.

          Some cases, both parents work long days and some cases, its a one parent household who is working multiple jobs around the clock and so, not out of a lack of responsibility, but in these instances, I get that there is less time for parenting because the parent or parent(s) are exhausted. In these instances, I do have empathy.

          But yes, there are some cases too, where I think parent(s) could be doing a better job.

          1. Thanks, Tom! Our last day is next Friday. Half day for the kids and the staff is out at 2.

            I 100% agree with you. Our greatest issue is student attendance and tardiness. There are a lot who do not attend school on a regular basis. There are a few who, because of stress and anxiety, have stopped coming to school all together and withdrawn.

            Cell phones and laptop are also an issue. Many kiddos are addicted to screens.

            We are having to reteach the students the concept of school. They have lost of what school is supposed. I have a friend who teaches in Spanish and she is seeing the same thing there.

            I am retiring in a year. I am hearing that a number of staff might be, too. I am also hearing that there could be major problems for schools in 25-26 because of a lack of state revenue.

            Tough times to be an educator.

          2. Yes there are circumstances.

            My wife has a theory.

            And I think it is valid. She thinks much of this is a product of DAY CARE.

            My Daughter’s last day is June 13th.

            1. Hi everyone, though not participating as in years past, I still read every day. JPD, I’m interested in hearing more about why your daughter thinks there’s a correlation between daycare and behavior in school. My son started attending daycare in January and I’ve been noticing his vocabulary getting better. So far I see nothing but positives.

              1. Not speaking for JpDave or his daughter, but I think, as in all cases, there are both positive and less positive outcomes. Its not 100% either way.

              2. Not my daughter, but my wife.
                We are older and when we were growing up, things were different. Families could be supported with one wage earner and thus there was always one parent at home. As the years passed and corporate greed took over, many families could not survive with one wage earner, thus the advent of wide spread day care.

                For many this was a necessity, for others, not so much. I was lucky enough that we never needed 2 sources of income and thus no need for day care. Others are/were not so fortunate, I understand this.

                In any case, children being in day care is not the same as being at home. It simply isn’t.
                And what do we have, 1 teacher per 20 children or something like that depending on the facility. It can promote an environment of selfishness that is brought forward and manifests itself in much of the student behavior we see today in the upper grades.

                Just an interesting theory that i believe has some merit.

                Hope I am not out of line, just responding to your inquiry.

                1. That makes a tremendous amount of sense to me. And surely not out of line. I’d love to chat with Mrs OS one of these days. We agree on so many topics.

                2. Adding that I also see benefits to day care. And I know of several phenomenal day cares. Also, like Tom I absolutely understand that sadly, and in too many cases, having one parent at home full time is impossible in too many cases…for a variety of reasons but most I think for the ones JPD mentioned.

        2. My grandkids in MA continue to be home schooled for this reason. . The bullying in school is horrific. There are kids in schools who have restraining orders for another student. The youngest I know of is fourth grade. Like JPD I blame parents. They like to say remote learning caused this. They somehow forget their kids were with them during that period. And I understand both parents work in many cases. Mac and I both worked. But our job as parents always came first.

  10. I’m really sorry to hear about the classroom management woes.

    Teachers are underappreciated, yet SO important to society. I put them right up there with police officers, firefighters, healthcare providers.

  11. Thanks TK and thanks for your response on the tweets from Ben Noll’s on HT I posted last night. Makes total sense to me. It will be very interesting to see some of the scientific studies that come out on this over the next couple years.

    1. As I’ve said, we have so much to learn from this event.

      And never during that should we lose sight of the other factors.

      I’m a scientist. It all counts. 🙂

  13. Thanks TK
    Is there a teacher shortage in Massachusetts as there is in CT? I know here in CT teacher burn out is one of the biggest reasons for the teacher shortage here in CT?

    1. I think there are teacher shortages everywhere.

      The new stressor too on districts is that, budgets have been helped the last 3 years by covid federal funds.

      They are ending and districts are looking at millions of dollars of shortfalls going forward.

      A lot of districts are simply not filling retiring teachers, saving money. But there still are some pink slips going out. The not hiring for the retirees is causing teachers next year to take on some additional responsibilities, on top of what we have already.

  14. I know the teachers that I talk to feel the administration doesn’t back them up and part of the reason moral is low.

  16. For our school district, the shortage of qualified aides is more of an issue. It’s putting a huge strain on the special education programs

    1. I/we have done a lot of subbing in our Special Education program in the last couple of year. I find it extremely rewarding working with our special education students. It has made me a better teacher!

  17. With regard to Covid, looking back, should schools have continued in session as usual with teachers and students simply “masking up” and those who catch Covid stay home then return upon recovery?

    Of course I wonder if today’s kids were just as “bad” anyway in 2019? Perhaps Covid just brought it out in the open now in 2024.

    THANK YOU TEACHERS!!! 🙂

    1. Many Parents were out of control on social media and at school committee and other meetings during that time. In too many instances police were required at SC meetings. Parents had to be removed. They set the example

      I cannot question remote. I do question our return as we were up to thousands of kids weekly being infected because of it. With growing understanding of long term covid impact on a still developing child, to me it was irresponsible.

      As of April 2024
      704,753,890 confirmed cases
      7,010,682 deaths
      675,619,811 recovered

      17 percent develop long covid according to Yale medicine.

      We are still learning the impact of covid on the nervous system/our organs

      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

      https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/what-is-long-covid#:~:text=As%20of%20March%202024%2C%20it's,medical%20term%20for%20Long%20COVID.

      https://www.ninds.nih.gov/current-research/coronavirus-and-ninds/covid-19-and-nervous-system#:~:text=People%20who%20have%20severe%20enough,of%20chemicals%20in%20the%20brain.

  20. Regarding Covid, the summer variant called FLiRT (who comes up with these? Teen Magazine? Seventeen?) is gaining traction. Started in Singapore, is hitting Hawaii and the west coast as well as parts of Europe. My 2 cents on this: 1. FLiRT is NOT a variant of concern; 2. But it’s still not good to get repeated Covid infections (numerous studies point to multiple infections contributing to higher risk of Long Covid as well as disease sequelae, which means the virus attacking other organs besides the lungs).

    Biggest difference between post 1920 (Spanish Flu) and post, say, 2021, is … you guessed it: International travel. The latter keeps this thing going. So far, ALL (sub) variants have behaved as they should with the virus getting progressively weaker in terms of potency, EXCEPT for the Delta variant in 2021. My worry is that we do get another Delta-like variant at some point. SARS-CoV-2 has a knack of doing the unexpected.

  21. Nice blob of showers/storms centered near Providence.

    Heads up south suburbs of Boston to South Shore next 1 or 2

      1. And those are the 00z 8pm at night temps for those days.

        The 18z temps he really shouldnt look at 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. Oh I see it now.

              I don’t have access to those bottom maps.

              Well, I have something to learn for sure.

              Why the 18z projection and then for those to be the max temps.

              Again, I trust you SAK, I’m saying you are correct, I just don’t get why those are the max temps only to have the 18z projection which is so much higher.

            2. Nope, you’re just looking at a different map than I posted. Look at the header at the top of the map.

              The ones you posted say “2 m AGL Temperature”
              The ones I posted say “24-hr max 2 m AGL Temperature”

              1. Agreed. I understand that, I think 🙂

                I guess what I don’t get is, why would the map you posted, the 24 hr max 2m AGL temperature, which I assume would capture the max temp for the day …… why would it not capture the higher temps projected during 18z. Why does it exactly match the 00z map temps for the 2m AGL temperature?

                1. Ok I don’t know what’s going on but the SAK maps I looked at
                  had 2M temps at 0Z or 8PM with DST.
                  The map did not say 24 hour Max.

                  You guys are confusing the shit out of me!

                  I did look at the 18Z 2M temps and they were around 100!!!!
                  Max temp could very well be 1-4 degrees higher than the 2PM temperature.

                  I can deal with 90, take those 100 degree readings and flush them down the toilet!!!!!

                2. Ditto JPD. I never minded 100 when younger. I stood in the sun holding sweaty horses too many times to count in 100 degree weather. But as I’m older, I am far from alone in have having trouble physically handling it. Are your ACs all in?

    2. Ok, great. That is awesome!!! Many thanks
      NO THANKS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES PREDICTED THOUGH. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. The part that went over us disappointed as it fell apart. I was hoping for some heavy rain to wash off the pollen.

        Just south of us, looks like it’s holding together better.

  25. I have one AC in for now, As we get closer down the road to those projected high temps and it looks like it will verify, I will install 2 more ACs and perhaps one more as well, all depending. 🙂

    Rain never made it this far North today.

  27. A whopping 0.03″ here as the heavier part of the cell passed just to my north. – several PWS just NW and N of me had 0.25-0.30″, a few miles to the N of those and there are several with 0.50-0.60″. It was just enough to get the pollen off the cars.

      1. Good news. I’m binging today. And need to stop because I don’t want this to end. I’m onto season 3

  30. Weather History, from WG Calendar…

    June 6-7 1964 …
    A TD off the coast of SC dumped over 10 inches of rain on Conway SC from the night of the 6th to the morning of the 7th, just after the end of the school year, leading into the Sun Fun Festival at Myrtle Beach. Runoff flooded the Grand Strand with up to 2 feet of water, stranding thousands for many hours in miles of back ups – its own kind of “grand strand”. In addition, flash flooding swept some vehicles off US-501 before they were able to close the road. Thankfully, there were no deaths or serious injuries from it.

    1. Interesting. I don’t remember this and my inlaws didn’t move home to the states (SC) till 1987

      Good thing the powers that be in SC saw a problem and addressed it before Hugo. I wonder if played a big part in its current procedures.

  31. Long duration cool spell in parts of Europe has expanded to almost the entire continent with no break to come for a while.

    Friend is Scotland, describes it as “brutally chilly for this time of year” and asks me “when is it going to end?” … She’ll need patience. There’s no heat in sight for western Europe.

    1. It’s not a county where you normally find really high temps. My niece spent some time there in college. My DIL gifted a trip to my daughter for his 40th. Now is a good time to be there I believe. What temps is she seeing?

    3. Does southern Spain look to be that way as well? I see it coolish the next 10 days and then looks like heat is on? Seville is our first stop and 6/21-6/25 looks toasty.

  32. TK, interesting info about Europe. What are your thoughts for central Italy in the long range? We’re spending 2+ weeks there later this month through early July.

          1. This will be their first! They’ve been learning some Italian and are eager to meet family

            1. Oh wow. I have goosebumps…absolute truth. What a thrill for them and for mom and dad.

    2. Have a blast. We were there last year and just amazing. Enjoy. I see much warmer temps trending around the 20-24th and then looks to stay.

  34. Ace / Hadi .. I will be taking a closer look at the weather for those areas in Europe going forward. The cool pattern is intriguing so I’m following it more closely.

  35. I’ve spoken about the GFS still being far less than stellar. Be careful about the 100+ degree heat it keeps forecasting for late in the period. Warm to hot stretch possible? Sure. I’ve indicated that based on pattern forecasting, but it’s also easy to recognize bogus temp forecast (like bogus model snowfall forecasts that the fake-mets love to post and the same people fall for season after season).

    Well, once upon a time the GFS was forecasting our region to be under the north side of spinning low pressure area and miserable weather – today. Nope. I discounted it then, for good reason. Meteorology.

    #ScienceForTheWin

    #GuidanceNotGospel

    #MeteorologyNotModelology

    Hey there’s a glimmer of hope out there in social media land. After the mainstream media went into scare tactic for clicks, shares, and ratings, about the Joro spider, there has been more push back, calling them out, than I have seen in a long long time. I’m loving every minute of it. It’s time to make media go back to actual reporting and delivering real information. We’ll all be a hell of a lot better off, because I believe social media is an excellent tool if used properly. 🙂

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