Wednesday June 12 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

The back side of upper level low pressure and boundaries created by sea breezes will be the trigger for a few afternoon and evening showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm in the region today, otherwise expect a mainly fair and comfortable day with a sun/cloud mix. Any showers go “poof” by tonight and as high pressure builds offshore, the dew point starts to creep up. This can lead to some ground fog patches overnight, but those will quickly dissipate in the rising sun Thursday, which will be a bright and warmer day as a southwesterly wind gets going. This, of course, is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast, so it will be cooler there in comparison to the remainder of the region. High pressure remains offshore Friday which ends up a very warm to hot, more humid day, ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will be the focus for a band of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. These likely form northwest of the WHW forecast area Friday afternoon, and based on the current expecting timing of the front’s approach and passage, the greatest chance of seeing downpours, gusty wind, and potential severe weather will be north and west of Boston late afternoon to early evening, with a weakening version of these heading southeastward later in the evening. I’ll monitor this and tweak the timing if needed, as well as adding more detail as we get closer to the event. Behind the front, high pressure builds toward the region Saturday and over the region Sunday. This will bring fair, pleasant weather. A gusty breeze will greet us on Saturday but it will settle down later, and Sunday will be more tranquil. It looks like a fabulous mid June weekend upcoming!

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon to early evening showers and potential thunderstorms around. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially Boston area southward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

A warm front may bring more clouds and perhaps some shower activity at some point June 17-18 as a trend toward a warm-up and increased humidity begins. Middle of next week looks hotter and more humid, at least briefly, with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast. We’ll have to watch another bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada which may help push a cold front southward, cutting off our hot weather sooner.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

Large scale pattern indicates a high pressure ridge retrograding from the Midwest to the Plains and a northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, but early in the period coming out of a hotter spell we may be vulnerable to heavier showers and thunderstorms.

57 thoughts on “Wednesday June 12 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)”

    2. My wife begins to be affected with dps in the upper 50s.
      She can notice as little as 1 degree change in the dp.

      NOT looking forward to tomorrow and most especially FRIDAY.
      And Next week? UGHHHH!!!

      Last night Pete painted 4 days in the 90s!!!! Hope that is wrong and the Eastern Canada High slips down as mentioned by TK above.

      1. I saw that (Pete).

        If I recall his tweet on it, he said he chose those temps off of the upper level heights and 850 mb temps, even though, the models didn’t seem to have the temps corresponding to those measures. (something to that effect) 🙂

      2. JPD. Good point. I need to be more careful when I say the heat has started bothering me. It’s really the dew point.

        Positive thoughts that your ACs keep Mrs OS comfortable

    1. Wish these had worked.

      WPC’s 100F heat index probabilities for next Wed/Thurs

      WPC had us in the 40% chance of achieving those heat indices in the northeast.

  10. My college buddy texted me this morning that Siesta Key, FLA has picked up 11.49″ of rain from this wet pattern. The city had a half-foot yesterday, 3.93 of it in one hour!

    1. And its getting stronger heading into Wednesday.

      Now, most of southern New England shown under a 597 dm contour.

  15. That sure looks like a classic HEAT DOME!!
    We shall see how high the temps and heat index go. Hopefully not too extreme!!!!

  16. The good news is ….. being a week away, the models might be underestimating a bubble of high pressure in SE Canada that could, at the boundary layer, provide some relief in eastern areas with an east or northeast wind break in between some hot weather.

    But, even if this happens, I don’t think we’d be talking 60s and 70s, but rather low 80s at the coast. That warm airmass above won’t allow the seabreeze to do its usual thing.

    1. Eastern Canadian high pressure is almost always under forecast by the guidance.

      I do not think Boston has a heat wave next week.

    1. Ain’t the sea breeze, eh? Well SW wind in that situation begets 90+ for Boston, not 100, but certainly low to perhaps mid 90s. Why Sub-90? I want to hear this explanation.
      I do NOT buy indirect sea breeze from waters to our South.
      NOT if wind is SW, now if wind is SOUTH, then absolutely SUB-90 in Boston!!!

      Now what’s it gonna be?????????

      1. So i “could” buy sub-90 if there is a great deal of cloudiness, but I don’t see that in this situation.

    2. I haven’t seen any hype in local media. Only some talk of potential heat next week, which is definitely worth mentioning as a potential.

      I have scenario in mind where that heat could get cut off, or pushed out prematurely, in eastern New England, but that’s no guarantee either. We’re too far away to really know for sure how things are going to go, in either direction.

      1. Thank you, sir. I really like when out Mets share possibilities. It’s my favorite part of your blog too. Well that and the amazing folks here.

  19. It’s a long way off, but just looking at the trends in the medium range guidance, and the most trusted model right now (which is the ECMWF, NOT the GFS). The Euro shows a wind shift to north on June 21 and east on June 22 with the passage of a front pushed by high pressure in eastern Canada. So that model is seeing what may possibly happen to put a cap on any heat that tries to get established.

    I’ll keep an eye on that for trends, as well as other guidance, except the GFS really, which I don’t trust much, so I don’t waste a lot of time on it, and won’t until they implement the proper fixes. Using the tools wisely, yep!

  20. Thanks, TK.

    Weather in London this past week has been different, shall we say, according to my daughter. Periodic daily light rain and cool to frankly cold. Daughter is wearing a scarf outdoors and indoors (her apartment is chilly; I experienced that in April – nights and early mornings are always much cooler than here throughout the spring to fall period) . Right now, nights are in the mid to upper 40s. Even during the day it’s been a raw mid to upper 50s. Not atypical. I’ve experienced it many times in the Netherlands in June. The coming week looks a tad warmer but still unsettled.

    1. Does your daughter have at flat? My sister in law had a four story flat with one room in each floor. Not unusual but always fascinated me.

    2. I hope things work out SSK !

      I wonder if the recent and continued stormy weather in south FL is being mishandled by the airlines, in that, instead of them applying the outlook to the specific area of Florida being affected, they of course generalize that about the whole state.

    3. I looked it over The wording is kind of over-done. He’ll be ok. If anything a delay can be caused by incoming planes being delayed.

  23. Well, at least on the 00z suite, the GFS is the less hot, relatively speaking, of the 2 models. Euro next Thursday and Friday, on this simulation, is brutal.

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