Thursday June 13 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)

85 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

High pressure provides a sunny and warmer day today but dew points will remain generally in the comfortable range (in the 50s but some lower 60s around the South Coast). A fair and mild night tonight with the 60+ dew point air creeping northward across the region. This sets us up for a warm and humid Friday as a cold front approaches. The timing of this front looks late enough that the bigger thunderstorm threat will remain west of the I-495 belt and occur later in the day, but it should be watched closely. Otherwise, we’ll have more clouds and an increased chance of showers. The frontal boundary crosses the region Friday night and exits early Saturday. Our weekend will feature comfortable air with generally dry weather. I can’t rule out a pop-up instability shower on Saturday mainly in the coastal plain east of I-95 through early or mid afternoon, otherwise it looks like a dry weekend. It’ll be breezy Saturday with a sun/cloud mix, and sunnier Sunday with less wind. Some clouds may roll in on Monday as it warms aloft but high pressure at the surface will keep our weather fair and dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially Boston area southward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A few pop up showers possible I-95 region eastward midday to mid afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

An upper level high pressure ridge builds on the East Coast. Surface high pressure to the south allows us to get warm to hot June 18-20, but that may be cut off by surface high pressure in eastern Canada sending a front down from the north later next week. It remains to be seen if any showers and thunderstorms would be involved with that potential change. The summer solstice occurs on June 20 at 4:50 p.m. EDT.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Large scale pattern shows retrogression of high pressure from the East to the Midwest and a more northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, with limited shower / t-storm chances.

85 thoughts on “Thursday June 13 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)”

    1. I am thrilled and appreciative !

      They did age me 30 years in the 4th qtr by going back to ISO ball with 0 ball movement and had a 21 pt lead all but evaporate.

      But, the experience showed and they made enough plays to win.

      1. Indeed and without Porzingis! They showed what they are made of last night. A complete TEAM!

  4. WBZ radio morning comedy

    Extreme heat and humidity today and tomorrow.

    Today, high temps in the 80s with dew point in the 50s.

    Tomorrow, high temps mostly 80s. Maybe somebody makes it to 90. Dew point goes 60 plus everywhere. But stays below 70.

    Neither one of those is extreme heat and humidity.

    1. Who is the DUMBBELL creating those headlines?????
      Whoever it is SHOULD be fired on the spot!!!

      1. I’m guessing a meteorologist submitted extreme heat and humidity, probably talking about potentially next week.

        However, in the hands of a news reporter, that incorrectly got applied to tomorrow and Friday.

        News folks should stick to news and weather folks should stick to weather.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    I’ve become a curmudgeon and I am only 59. When I was young, the weather hype machine wasn’t nearly as hyperactive as it is today. As TK and JPD point out, the “extreme heat and humidity” headlines are one symptom of this. I (literally) tune out hyperbole unless it’s warranted. But apparently I’m in the minority, as hype seems to attract eyeballs.

    On the Celtics, I am very impressed. I’m not a basketball fan but what I saw last night and the few times I’ve watched during this post-season run was TEAM play. Stifling defense, good ball movement. Man was I wrong about this team. 15-2 thus far in the post season. That’s incredible. I don’t care who the opponents are. The 18th banner will be hoisted. I’m not going out on a limb by saying that.

    1. Many thanks Joshua.

      My Father’s brother Suffered from and finally succumbed to Alzheimer’s, so it is in the family gene’s for sure. Every time I forget something, My wife and I think: Ok is that just normal aging or the onset of Alzheimer’s. So far it looks like normal aging. 🙂

      Great article. Thank you!

    2. Thank you, Joshua. My dad had dementia. Mac’s mom and all three sisters had Alzheimer’s as did her grandfather. I am very interested in your article

    1. 00z CFS run has 500 mb heights mostly 585 dm or higher until July 5th.

      On this particular run, real trofiness, if not a closed low return to the northeast July 5th until the end of the run.

      Not including Logan, because I could see a day or 2 with a cooling wind off the ocean, I think interior Southern New England might run 5-10F above average temperatures the next 21 or so days and maybe 3-5F above avg at the immediate coast.

    1. And just for the record, I suddenly had a bad feeling when the Celtics were up by 21 points as they have been known to blow big leads and my suspicions ended up being correct but I also had a good feeling they would survive and they did. :mrgreen:

  11. Thank, TK!

    My sympathy to you, JPD, for your loss.

    JimmyJames, I need to correct myself and apologize from a comment I made on high school graduations being over for the season. I did not realize that schools in Connecticut have high school graduations so close to the last day of school for all students in the district.

    In Massachusetts, seniors have to attend 168 of the 180 school days scheduled.

    I found this out when I was reading an article that Newtown High School graduated last night. This would have been the graduating class of those 20 beautiful angels who were taken from us in December, 2012. I cannot even imagine the strong mixed emotions of their friends, family, school and town during last night’s ceremony.

  12. Keep it down over there, Tom!
    I can hear you and your excitement from here!!!! 🙂

    Enjoy the countdown and your sum-mah! 🙂

    1. LOL !!

      Congrats to you, Captain, on what I’m sure was another great school year !

      Happy last day tomorrow and happy summer !!

  14. Thank you all for your kind words re: my Uncle.
    That was many years ago and I was responding to Joshua’s
    interesting article on Alzheimer’s.

    He was a good man who lived a long and wonderful life as
    he passed in his late 80s. At least it was NOT early onset.

    1. I serve breakfast to memory care residents 5 days a week. It’s a constant reminder of how things can be and keeps a lot in perspective for me ..

  15. On the Celtics, they haven’t lost a single game on the road during the post-season. Off the top of my head I don’t know if in the modern era – with 3 or 4 playoff series – any team has won the championship without having lost a single game on the road.

  17. Congratulations to all of our teachers on the completion of another year. I wish you all peaceful summers.

  18. Re wbz radio . I stopped listening to its less than accurate forecasts decades ago. I wonder if we are more aware of its inaccuracies thanks to TKs blog. While I listen to NPR more often through podcasts, the few times I’ve heard radio weather was by a local meteorologist. Imo that is how it should be.

  19. 12z GFS maintaining 594-597 dm heat dome next week.

    With that, a lighter gradient and potential seabreezes.

    But …. 20-22C at 850mb and the solstice sun.

    Logan might be 79F at the east end of the runway and 90F at the terminal drop offs and 95F a couple miles inland.

    The 850 and 700 mb projected temps are eye popping. Not much of an effective seabreeze to be anticipated from this time frame. We’ll see if that evolves to something with more punch as we get closer.

    1. And then there’s Friday’s projection.

      Ridge suppresses or breaks down slightly, actually translates to more gradient at ground level and wow !!!!

        1. That’s it.

          To the intensity it plays out, we’ll see, but this heat surge seems like it could be a very warm day, then a hot day, then an immediate coastal slightly less hot day, finishing with a searing hot day.

          Logan: 87, 94, 82, 97
          Inland: 87, 94, 95, 95

          That kind of thing, maybe ???????

    1. Basically UNCHANGED from the last update and agrees
      with TK’s Assessment that the strongest storms will be to the West, as per usual. 🙂

      1. Thursday

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024061312&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Friday

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024061312&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Euro has come back to Earth, but projects Friday to be a STINKER!!!!!!

        Dps bad but NOT outrageous

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024061312&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        My fear is now the EUro in UNDERCOOKED.

        In any event, going to be hot next week, let’s hope NOT intensely so.

  25. I might be having a big juicy steak when my mom and I take my stepdad out to Outback Steakhouse for Father’s Day.

  27. Based on the HRRR, NAM and 3KM NAM, I’d say severe threat Western and Central Sections with Marginal conditions to the East. Nothing new. 🙂

  28. The euro’s initial heat dome being slightly further west, plus a slight weakness southeast of us, projects us less intense heat at the start.

    Both on both models, when the heat dome breaks down to a strong ridge later in the week, the built up 850 mb airmass gets shunted on decent flow aloft and at the surface right to the coast.

    If this verifies, one of the end days of this hot spell could really challenge 100F.

      1. 21C at 850 would approximate 97 at surface and 22C would be closer to 99.

        This is based on surface Degrees F + 27.5 as an approximation. Not perfect, but a reasonable approximation assuming reasonable sunshine. Does NOT take into account down slopping, if any.

        So, that could be some HOT stuff for sure.

        91 or 92 is one thing. 99 or 100 is something else altogether!

        Hottest outdoor temperature I have ever been in was 108 in Las Vegas. It was “dry” but still HOT!!!!
        Hottest here was 102 but that was humid and heat index
        was likely as hot or hotter than that 108 in Vegas.

    2. Yes, it could. Could even be 100+ Perhaps even record breaking.
      BUT Hopefully, that is NOT the case. Time will tell. From here on out, will be watching the 2M temperatures.

    1. Happy summer to all the teachers ending school. Congrats!

      Leaving in the heat here next week and heading to southern Spain for more heat. Seville, Cordoba, Rhonda, Granada and then a week at the Beach south of Malaga. Temps look to be around 92-99 daily except when at the beach. Not sure the DP, but imagine they are pretty high. How can you see the DP’s?

      TK any thoughts on the forecast, seems pretty straightforward from what I can tell. Hot, sunny and no rain to speak of. I hope everyone has a good few weeks.

  34. The Florida Panthers are one win away from a Stanley Cup Championship, and can sweep Edmonton with a win in the next game.

    1. Thanks everyone. Feeling very fortunate and grateful to be healthy and able to travel.

      Saw your note about teaching a few days ago Tom, hopefully you can go out on your own accord. Hang in there.

  35. Hadi,
    check out pivotal weather
    select continent and Europe
    you will be able to see dps for Spaim.

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