Friday June 14 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)

157 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

A cold front moves into the region today with a warm, more humid air mass in place. But sooner arrival of cloudiness will limit heating, and an earlier arrival of a first shower area (from upstream storms last night) will rob the atmosphere of some of its potential instability, lessening the threat of stronger storms in much of our region as we go through the afternoon. The greatest threat remains in areas west of I-495 / northwest of I-84, where some storms can produce damaging wind gusts, but incidents like this should be isolated, and not on a larger scale. As showers and storms approach the coastal plain, they will weaken. The front itself will be a little slow to move through our area this evening and tonight, with a little ripple of low pressure on it, so a more widespread shower area is anticipated, but timing suggests that this will exit as the low pressure waves is beyond the region and pulls the front more quickly offshore before dawn Saturday… The weekend is going to be cooler and drier. With the exception of the chance of a brief additional pop up shower first thing Saturday morning in eastern areas as a final low pressure trough moves through, expect dry weather with a sun/cloud mix and breezy conditions during Saturday, then more abundant sun and more tranquil weather on Sunday as high pressure builds over the region. This high will move offshore early next week when we keep mostly fair weather but undergo a warm-up. Some cloudiness will likely visit the region sometime Monday and/or Tuesday as it also warms up aloft as high pressure ridging begins to build on the East Coast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely, but greatest chance of heavier showers and stronger thunderstorms will be west and north of the coastal plain. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 81-88 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, can be variable and gusty near storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Evening showers and embedded thunderstorms. Overnight showers, ending toward dawn. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, still can be briefly stronger and gusty near any storms early evening, becoming N 5-15 MPH toward dawn.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. An early to mid morning shower possible NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Highs 71-78, coolest north-facing and east-facing shores. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

Signal for fair, hot weather with high pressure aloft on East Coast and high pressure at the surface south of New England during the middle of next week. High pressure in eastern Canada potentially under-forecast by medium range guidance may push a frontal boundary southward into our region later in the period, cutting off the heat and potentially bringing some showers/thunderstorms, at least initially. The summer solstice occurs on June 20 at 4:50 p.m. EDT.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Westerly flow and weak trough brings unsettled weather early period, then briefly drier/cooler northwest flow before high pressure rebuilds with warm/dry weather later in the period. This is not high confidence but based on most reliable medium range ensemble guidance.

157 thoughts on “Friday June 14 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hit 84 yesterday with an overnight low of 67 this morning.

    Currently: 72

    Ocean temperature: 63.1 (Boston Buoy)

    Although the highest Pete had for next week was 95, he did mention that 100 was not out of the question.

    Looking at the 6Z GFS and the 0Z Euro, there are signs of some coastal relief from the heat. Timing various between the 2 models. We shall see.

    1. Here in Boston I am NOT worried in the least. 🙂

      We shall see.

      Here is the activity that TK indicated could limit instability
      in Eastern sections later on. Again, we shall see.

      Still bright and sunny here.

      up to 76 here.

    1. I agree. Doesn’t even feel like it.

      We shall see later today. One never knows. Still needs to be monitored.

  10. I would not be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm watch issued for interior parts of SNE this afternoon.

    1. “Usually” when the show a slight area, there is a watch issued.
      Not always, but often times, so I would not be surprised.
      I doubt it would come to the coast.

  11. Hopefully we will be able to celebrate Banner #18 along with our great weather this weekend. :mrgreen:

    1. Best have the parade before next Tues-Friday else afterwards.
      We don’t need fans passing out from the heat and humidity.

        1. They earlier the better for the players for sure. They and their families will want to head out on vacation.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Thanks to all who expressed kind wishes to the educators!!! 🙂

    59 minutes more minutes with the kiddos!

    3:29 left until staff dismissal!

    Sue, do you have a recent graduate in your family? Was this a graduation year for you?

  16. Some raining happening right now where I am. Will see later if this lowers the severe weather threat as the atmosphere might not be able to recover with the rain happening.

  19. Seeing the forecasts for next week, I am doubly happy for our teachers that vacation begins this week. I hope you all have a very special vacation. Teaching was never easy and I’ve never thought as appreciated as it should be, but the challenges seemed to have increased significantly since Covid. I pray the upcoming school year can right itself.

        1. Not really a correction as some are selling for that amount . Absolutely ridiculous….whether it is initial or resale.

  23. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024061412&fh=99&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Sometimes when you watch a Hurricane Michael or a Sandy ….. something, where you think, all the atmospheric pieces came together …..

    Well, it’s not low pressure or a tropical system this go round, it’s everything coming together to build a super ridge in/near the northeast.

    I’m not sure this is going to back off much. It sure looks like it’s repeating again on the 12z gfs and we’ve gotten to 120 hrs

    3. So is this the main event? OR is this the instability robbing
      pre-event action? IF so, likely not much of a main event. 🙂

  29. The only change I see is most of CT is now under that slight risk with the latest update from the SPC. I like the earlier outlook of a marginal risk as I think the storms will weaken approaching the CT shoreline.

  32. Thanks, TK.

    Here in Sudbury we are having quite a heavy thunderstorm. Frequent lightning, strong thunder, heavy rain and some wind. Very dark out.

  33. Vicki no thunder just some rain. It is staying cloudy now which is a good thing as that will hopefully lessen the intensity of any thunderstorms later. Sunshine is not a good thing on a day like today.

    1. Makes perfect sense.

      Thunder and moderate rain here now. I was warned rain would arrive here in five minutes and sure enough it did. Looks like a lone breakaway cell over here

    1. Wow. You got the brunt of it. I just got its baby.

      Question. A couple of days ago you mentioned (I think) the reservoir that 128 runs by in Waltham. I always thought it was the lincoln reservoir. Our dad took us there to fish regularly. But recently I learned it might be a Cambridge reservoir. I wondered if you knew more about it

      1. It’s named Cambridge Reservoir, but its western bank is indeed in Lincoln. (I don’t think it borders Cambridge at all, but maybe it’s part of Cambridge’s water supply…)

  37. Sailboats having some fun probably out in Boston Harbor as a decent outflow boundary propagates out into the harbor from the storms.

    In all seriousness, hope all boating interests out there are ok.

  38. Dark, ominous clouds formed rapidly about a half hour ago. Looked like dusk 15 minutes ago. Now the heavens are absolutely unloading with VERY heavy rain.

  39. Downed trees and power lines reported by trained spotters in Cambridge and Medford according to the text in the severe thunderstorm warning

    1. Storms are back building on the southwest part of this line and also the new cells are slightly further south with time.

      1. The storms also rapidly intensified over cape Ann on the north shore.

        We got a lot of sun east of Worcester this morning and it got warm and fairly humid. This had some fuel to work with.

  41. Norwood gusted to 48 and Brockton has a storm intensifying and it’s nearly about to go over them.

  42. Live next to the river and can see Cambridge from my apartment (gosh, I sound like Sarah Palin – “I can see Russia from my house”). While it was quite dark and stormy here it looked VERY dark and storm just across the river. We had some big gusts of swirling wind.

      1. We dropped from 84 to 74, but dp remained at 66.
        I’m surprised as I thought the dp would go up.

  44. We kind of split the uprights here as we often do.
    Worse to the North and South and NOT much here.
    It rained, the wind guste and there were a few rumbles of thunder and that was all she wrote.

  45. So is this it? Or is anything else coming?
    I see some action in SW CT, but that doesn’t look destined for here.

      1. I disagree. Seems to be on a bee line to Boston, BUT it cooled off so much here, it is more likely to go poof or at least weaken considerably. 🙂

  50. Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat
    and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very
    good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S.
    through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In
    fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the
    Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns
    with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several
    parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature,
    signaling potential for a highly unusual event.

    Credit to Norton NWS afternoon discussion

    2. GOOD GRIEF!!!!

      I was actually giving you FULL CREDIT for the above post until you last line. 🙂

      Well played!

  51. I would make sure the AC is working as well as fans. Too sleeping nights next week if those are not working with lows that could not drop below 70 in some areas of SNE.
    Hopefully this is the worst of the heat we see all summer and after this more typical heat and humidity.

  53. More from the NWS discussion

    The eastward extend of the severe potential with a secondary linear
    convective line remains in question as it will again be a race
    against time/sunset as instability wanes around 00-01Z. So,
    ultimately, we expect another line of impactful convection to
    traverse across southern New England between ~21Z and 02Z
    tonight

  54. More from NWS on the heat next week. A continuation of
    what Tom posted earlier.

    We`re also seeing fairly high chances of afternoon highs well into
    90s Tue-Fri, if not near 100 in some spots. More importantly,
    daytime heat indices may reach as high as 105 degrees and there will
    be little relief at night with nighttime heat indices in 70s.

  55. So between the GFS and the EURO, I still see SEA BREEZE potential Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
    But it does NOT penetrate too far inland. I could see Logan in the upper 70s.low 80s and still be 90 or 90+ here in JP.

    The BIG HEATt day for the coast appears to be Friday.

    Hope this is the case. We shall see.

  59. JPD I love the lightning pro app. Does the lightning strike on top of this building mean it hit the building.

    https://ibb.co/FKtjVCm

    Meanwhile 0.33 in a very short time and all is quiet now …..or starting to rumble again.

    1. poosibly, but could also mean the gps location is off by a little bit. I don’t know for sure.

  60. Lightning detection is reasonably accurate, but is prone to some errors, up to 1/8 or 1/4 mile sometimes. Also get some false strikes that didn’t actually happen. But if you see a dot on top of something it’s a reasonable assumption that it was “very close”.

    1. Thank you very much. I checked during the height of the storm with vivid lightning and huge thunder. Most new buildings which these are are grounded. Could lightning hit without damage.

  61. 4+ day heatwave potential for Boston next week! Hopefully the Celtics finish off Mavs so that a parade can happen on “Monday” as opposed to sometime later in the week. The heat would not be good for not just the fans along the route but the players and their families on the Duckboats as well.

  62. Vicki, I apologize for inadvertently ignoring your question regarding my daughter’s flat. She and her British boyfriend bought a small apartment – perhaps 400 square feet, but nicely configured – in North London, in a district called Muswell Hill. I love it there. So much greenery. People are very polite and friendly. It’s not the hustle and bustle of Central London. I will be going on August 12th again and returning to Boston at the end of the month. I can’t wait to be in the Tube at Heathrow Airport and after exiting the Piccadilly Line train at Leicester Square, catching the Northern Line train. I then hear the train recording of a woman saying “you are on a north bound Northern Line train terminating at High Barnet.” It’s at that point in my journey that I know I’m just 7 stops from Highgate station. Once there, I walk up the long hill (Muswell hill) about a mile. Once arrived, I’m ready for some strong Yorkshire tea with milk and a scone. I genuinely love England.

      1. My pleasure. It’s too lovely to just have on FB. But you didn’t need to credit me. You are so sweet.

    1. Didn’t show up to play tonight, so far. A bit surprising. No need to panic, though, as they can close things out at home on Monday if they don’t come back tonight.

      1. Last time they won was on 6/17/2008 :). Hmmmm what’s Monday.

        Bad game which will happen, as Luka actually had to play D after being called out that much

  67. For those of you who like soccer the coming 6 weeks or so will be a treat. The European Championships started today in Germany. The Germans thrashed the Scots, 5-1. The Copa America starts June 20th. Both tournaments last 3 to 4 weeks. Essentially, these are games between nations’ best players.

    1. Can’t wait for both tournaments. “Football” is right up as the best for me sports wise. That’s what being born abroad and living outside the US as a child does for you.

    1. well said.

      please tell me how a team as talented as the Celtics could lose like that?
      Makes no srnse. Lose a tight competitive game, Sure, of course, but lose like they did last night. Nope.
      I don’t buy it. Not for 1 second.
      call me jaded if you must.

      1. Effort and mental phrase of mind.

        Better/great teams separate on the scoreboard over a full game as long as they try, across all sports.

        Disengage and the talent is still good on the opposing team to thoroughly beat the better team.

        Once behind, they were onto the next game.

        2. 100% agree. You could see it happening. Before halftime they had basically gotten into the “onto the next game / win it at home” mentality. It’s not healthy, but I think it’s somewhat psychologically natural for people to do that.

      2. Every team in every sport has an all around bad game at some point. It’s part of what happens. None of us like it, but it should be expected once in a while.

        1. still not buying it. nice try.
          if they played half speed the game would be competitive.
          C’s are way too taltented for this to happen. if you noticed, they saved their worst game of the year for a finals close out game. C’mon.

          1. You have days when you’re off your game too. It can happen in sports just as easily. (See my comment to Tom.)

  69. There’s going to be a day in this hot stretch where there is very light wind at the shore.

    That top layer of water, under the solstice sun, in this upcoming airmass ……

    That’s the day Boston harbor buoy water temp will hit or slightly surpass 70F.

    I wonder what the earliest recorded date of that happening is ??????

    1. Agree!
      and don’t know earliest.

      models not in total agreement but there could be a sea breeze on 2 or more iof those “hot” days.

      1. Agreed.

        Logan, if we look back on data even 5 years from now, when we’ve forgotten about this hot stretch, is going to be so misleading to what everyone will experience even just a few miles inland.

        Oh, Logan hit 83, look at that. Meanwhile, at JP, you will have hit 93/94 and go to 128 vicinity and they’ll have been 96, 97F

  70. btw,
    The hype is building like this is going to be the end of the world. we have seen 4 days of heat like this before.

    2. I didn’t notice any hype at first, just “advanced advertising” but some (not all) outlets have jumped on the hype train wording it like we’ve never seen it before. Again, this tends to come more from the writing / anchors, and not the meteorologists (unless they are basically forced to say it a certain way, which as you know I think is a shame).

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