Saturday June 15 2024 Forecast (8:57AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

The next 5 days will take us on a journey from comfortably cool to hot and humid. It starts out with a northerly air flow behind yesterday’s unsettled weather, delivering a dry and cool air mass directly out of Canada. A gusty breeze today will settle down later, and we’ll see a sun/cloud mix, but with a tendency for fewer clouds as we head into late-day after some leftover mid level cloud patches this morning and some diurnal cumulus development peaking during the first half of the afternoon. Tonight will be a clear and cool one as high pressure drifts into the region. There are some interior lower elevations that can drop into the upper 40s with the very dry air in place and light wind / calm conditions. Sunday is going to be a candidate for a “top ten” day by typical standards, with abundant sun, maybe filtered at times by some high clouds, not too much wind, and after the chilly start a comfortable midday and afternoon with dry air. Then we undergo a change from Monday to Wednesday a strong upper level high pressure ridge builds on the East Coast and surface high pressure parks itself southeast of New England. As it warms at upper levels initially we will see some varying amounts of high and perhaps some mid level cloudiness Monday and part of Tuesday, but I’m not expecting any precipitation from that. During this time we’ll “climb the temperature stairs” and by Wednesday we’ll be fully immersed in the heat with higher humidity as well. With a southwesterly air flow heading into the hot spell, the South Coast will see modified air and not be quite as hot as areas away from there. Onto the specific forecast…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest north-facing and east-facing shores. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine but some high cloud streaming across the sky as well. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable, mostly S to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point breaks 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

Hot, humid weather continues regionwide on the day of the summer solstice (4:50 p.m. EDT) June 20 with fair weather. June 21 watching for a back-door cold front to slip down from the north and northeast as surface high pressure scoots across eastern Canada and the upper level ridge starts a retrogression into the interior eastern US. While low confidence, expecting that eastern Canadian high to potentially be strong enough to give our region fair and relatively cooler weather for most of the June 22-23 weekend before a disturbance brings a rain chance later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

A general westerly to northwesterly air flow with high pressure ridging further west (in the Midwest / Ohio Valley). This keeps us out of persistent heat, though brief heat can occur, along with a few shower and t-storm chances in an otherwise mainly dry pattern.

73 thoughts on “Saturday June 15 2024 Forecast (8:57AM)”

  1. 1.76″ from yesterday’s activity in 3 parts:

    0.73″ in 20 minutes during Round 1 in the afternoon
    0.52″ during Round 2 in the evening
    0.51″ from Round 3 around and after midnight.

    Certainly didn’t expect that much rain, but that’s been the theme for a year now.

  4. Thanks, TK. We’re into the week of the year in which the Northern Hemisphere will see its most daylight. While that’s pronounced here, it’s more so in the northern latitudes. In the Netherlands, for example, which is at the same latitude as Labrador (but a TOTALLY different climate), it’s light out until 10:30pm. There’s even some residual dusk light at 11pm. Obviously, Boston doesn’t have that. Two things that play a role: 1. We’re much further south than Northwestern Europe; 2. We’re near the Eastern most point of the time zone (different story in places like Detroit that’s in our time zone and will be light out until 9:30pm or so). The Netherlands is at the Western edge of its time zone.

    1. Very short-lived “dome”, not really one in the classic sense.

      The anomalous ridge is actually a response to an anomalous trough (and impressively cool weather) in the western US. That’s not getting much press / air time because heat usually gets far more attention from the media. 🙂

      1. That’s why I made sure to put it in quotes – if you spend any time on wx twitter you wouldn’t escape people saying heat dome so much you’d think they were getting paid per mention. lol

  6. Thanks TK! In looking at the weather from last June it is nice to see we are on a different track this June with much more sun and warmth! One of my favorite weekends of the year – Fathers Day and the US Open and peak daylight

  8. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 85 here yesterday

    Overnight low was 65

    Currently 71

    Ocean temperature: 63 (Boston Buoy)

    Not looking forward to the upcoming heat.
    Now I would WELCOME the EAST WIND!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
    Let us hope it blows in.

  9. Thanks TK
    Will see if BDL records a temperature of 100 degrees with the heat wave next week. CT has not had a 100 degree day in June since 1964.

  10. So far BDL has recorded only one 90 degree day so far this year. That will change starting next Tuesday.

  11. We are 12 days away from tying a record for the latest date without a named system in the eastern Pacific.

    And if the system in the eastern Gulf doesn’t do anything, by early next week we’ll be at our 3rd latest start for the Atlantic since 1970.

    The the western Pacific continues to be devoid of any tropical cyclone activity.

    1. Not sure where that Atlantic stat came from, but it’s WAAAAAAAY off.

      2014 1st storm formed July 1
      2011 1st storm formed June 28
      2010 1st storm formed June 25
      2009 1st storm formed August 11
      2004 1st storm formed July 31
      2002 1st storm formed July 14
      2000 1st storm formed August 3
      1998 1st storm formed July 27
      1994 1st storm formed June 30
      1991 1st storm formed July 2
      1990 1st storm formed July 22
      1989 1st storm formed June 24
      1988 1st storm formed August 5
      1987 1st storm formed August 9
      1985 1st storm formed July 15
      1984 1st storm formed August 18
      1983 1st storm formed August 15
      1980 1st storm formed August 1
      1977 1st storm formed August 29
      1974 1st storm formed June 24
      1973 1st storm formed July 1
      1971 1st storm formed July 4

      1. You’re correct, and I omitted some info. It’s a combination of the Atlantic AND the Eastern Pacific, but I’m glad I messed that up because that info you posted is very interesting and a collection I did not have at my immediate disposal. 🙂

    1. The KBOX radar went down briefly during yesterday’s activity. Thankfully it was very short-lived.

  13. Hey SAK I saw your reply to The Boston Globe referring to last summer as hot for Boston. That was funny. 🙂

    Only 1/3 the normal # of 90 degree days and below normal temps for meteorological summer. Hot? Nope. Classic media malfunction. They don’t even do their homework before spewing.

    Also, I wonder if the writer(s) know anything about the other dozen or so global & hemispheric oscillations that impact the large scale climate, including their interaction with ENSO, making the effects variable. Probably not. They really need to be consulting actual meteorologists for this stuff. It would make the stories a lot more useful.

  14. From WGC… On this date in 1991.

    The Philippines’ Mount Pinatubo erupts, hurling billions of tons of “volcanic debris” 100,000 feet into the atmosphere the same day that Typhoon Yunya makes landfall at Luzon. The typhoon’s heavy rain mixed with volcanic ash to create devastating lahars and mudslides that left 200,000 people homeless.

    From mid 1991 through 1993, the global temperature dropped about 0.9F (0.5C) as a result of the amount of particulate in the atmosphere.

    In contrast, a similar temperature rise has taken place as a result of Hunga Tonga spewing largely water vapor, a greenhouse gas, into the stratosphere.

    Yep, volcanoes can and do have a significant impact on a global scale.

  16. There is an interesting weather stat in regard to the Karen Read trial. I believe that particular day the “ crime” took place was the last year (2022) Boston saw its last significant snow. If I’m not mistaken, there hasn’t been a 4”+ event since.
    As for the trial itself, I wonder if there will be a “Perry Mason” moment? Her lawyers seem to want to head in that direction. Lol. 😀

    1. If I understand correctly, Karen Read is charged with running over her boyfriend (a BPD officer) with her car after a night of drinking, leaving him in a snow bank off the side of the road.

      1. Sorry for the emoji above. It certainly was not meant to be funny. But it does appear like an old Perry Mason episode the way her lawyers are presenting possibilities for the jury.

        1. I knew what you meant. No worries! In that context, there’s amusement to be found. I get it.

  18. Quincy MA Flag Day Parade, Flag Raising Ceremony, Fireworks take place this evening starting at 7PM. Great event I’ve been to a few times and making a return trip. 🙂

  20. The Euro tempers the heat a bit along the coast on Tuesday and kills the heat with bdf on Friday. Possibly NO HEAT WAVE for Boston. We shall see.

    1. Scored the fastest goal ever at the Euro: In the 27th second. Albania is playing against its former colonizer and occupier, Italy.

      1. Well, it’s already 2-1 Italy, as Albania conceded 2 textbook goals from the Italians (defending champs, by the way).

        1. Joshua, one of the main reasons I don’t watch soccer is the LACK of scoring. I am sick of so many 1-0 games or with no scoring at all with overtime penalty kicks to decide the final winner.

          I would love to see some 4-3, 5-4, 6-5 scores etc. every now and then.

          1. Well, you’re sort of getting that, as there’s been plenty of scoring so far.

            By the way, it’s been a rather cool late spring and summer in most of Western Europe. This looks to continue for a while, with lots of periodic rain and temps in the 60s and 70s at most across much of the area. Germany is where the games are being played. I don’t know much about the stadiums: For example, whether they have roofs or not. The ones that don’t may be impacted by some moderate rain this week.

            The good news is it is not hot. Most soccer players do not like playing in the heat.

  23. The cold & snow in the West (MT mountains) is going to be a more impressive anomaly than a ridge and heat in the East this upcoming week…

  24. Daughter described today’s weather in London in several WhatsApp texts:

    – Dark and grim (on a supposed peak daylight day);
    – Chilly with downpours;
    – Where’s the sun? Warmth?

    That climate can be brutal after a while. We really take it for granted how incredibly sunny and warm Boston is by comparison. In winter, we take for granted how incredibly sunny and cold Boston is by comparison.

  25. At the barn with my granddaughter and the wind is whipping. I wish I’d thought to bring the kestrel

  26. As TK alluded to, what’s happening in MT this week is a true anomaly. What’s happening here is NOT.

    Take Great Falls, MT, for example. It will not get out of the mid 40s on Monday with lows in the 30s. That’s June 17th. And that’s not up in the mountains where it will be cold and snowy.

    1. I saw that after TK posted and I may be looking at incorrect data. My phone in bright sun is not easy to read. Around the 40 ish I thought I saw 60/70/and maybe 80???

  27. Thanks TK.

    Quite the underachiever for rainfall here yesterday with only 0.04” in the rain gauge.

    We were up in northern VT for a few days this week and just returned yesterday. Weather was terrific much of the week with mixed sun and clouds and highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Very refreshing air and perfect weather for biking, hiking, and kayaking. Will be fondly remembering that air next week.

    Really rooting for that back door front the Euro is hinting at next Friday. We have tickets to the concert at Fenway next Friday night which could be brutal.

    1. Hootie & the Blowfish with Barenaked Ladies

      ENJOY!!!

      We’ll be listening. We can often hear the concerts from our house. Sometimes, we can even make out the lyrics, but usually it is just the bass and other instruments. 🙂

      1. Collective Soul as well which is another favorite of mine, and Edwin McCain is opening so four bands. Quite a decent lineup for one show.

        Seen both BNL and Collective Soul many times but never seen Hootie. Should be a good show as long as none of the performers pass out!

        1. excellent.
          That’s a lot of music in one show.

          I’ve seen many bands, but none of those.

          have a great show.

  28. 18Z gfs also has BDF for Friday, but has 97, 97 and 99 for Boston, Tue,Wed, Thu. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

    1. When I lived in Minnesota I always found that area to be the genesis for Derechos forming along the heat domes and they would usually light up around midnight

  31. Both global models, if there is a little cooling Friday, do, on different weekend days, push the heat back to the coastline for 1 day before a bigger push of mild to warm air arrives.

  32. Logan down to 57F last night, Taunton to 47F

    I was by a window last night and the cool air was slowly coming in the house, it felt good.

    1. 53 here

      btw Euro hss the heat right back for Sun, Mon, Tues and is even near by on Sat. not much of a break.

      1. Yes.

        I think there’s some sorting out to do there as far as a brief return of the heat. Looks like a bigger push of relief, as it approaches, would force the back door front to push back eastward.

  33. Stanley Cup Finals last night

    Florida Panthers went in, leading the series 3-0.

    They lost game 4, (8-1)

    Sound familiar 🙂

    1. A lot of similarities there .. but pure coincidence. Many people think it’s rigged, or on purpose. I do not, but I do think sometimes human psychology does play into it (as discussed on previous comments section). 🙂

  34. I expect the Celtics and Panthers to win at home in game five. It always seems when teams that get embarrassed who are great and well coached bounce back the next game.

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