Monday June 17 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

As we head through the final few days of spring and start summer this week (solstice is Thursday at 4:50 p.m. EDT), we have some intense summer heat to talk about. But before we get there, a day and part of another day of transition, after a comfortable weekend. Today we see some varying cloud cover in response to a warm front moving across the region. It is this front that opens the door to the hot weather, and as high pressure builds offshore at the surface and a strong upper level ridge dominates the East Coast, we’ll see the heat build quickly tomorrow through mid week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. It’s when we get to the end of the week that the puzzle to solve is a cold front dropping southward from Canada, with another surface high up there representing a cooler air mass. As has been my thought process for a while, I think that front will move through the region on Friday – exact timing to be a factor in high temps and any drop off that day. As far as any other rain threats leading up to the frontal situation, there would about up to about a 10% chance of a pop up air mass thunderstorm in a few locations Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoons. Don’t count on seeing any in one particular location, but keep in mind that the chance is greater than 0%. In addition, during the hottest weather this week, the southwesterly air flow that is transporting the heat into our region will pass over ocean water and therefore the typical modifying influence in temperature will take place for the South Coast region, especially Cape Cod.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around or over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP approaches 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

Forecast scenario for the June 22-23 weekend is for the frontal boundary that comes through Friday to stay just south of the region on Saturday with a shower/t-storm chance well south and west of Boston, fair elsewhere, moderate humidity, and not too hot (70s coast, 80s inland), and the frontal boundary to try to make a come-back on Sunday with more clouds and potentially more of a shower threat eventually, but still not hot (70s coast, around 80 inland). We may get back into a little bit of very warm to hot weather and notable humidity during the first part of next week, but with some retrogression of large scale features, including the high pressure ridge that causes this week’s heat, this would be a far less intense spell of heat, and may come with additional showers / t-storms with a disturbance or two moving through the region from the west and northwest. Much to fine-tune.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks the same with high pressure centered in the Midwest and a west to northwest flow here, limited heat but variable temperatures, dry most of the time but a few shower / storm chances.

56 thoughts on “Monday June 17 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)”

    1. Thank you, JJ. Another one I don’t remember so appreciate your reminder of events in our area

  5. We all know how much weather and climate can matter to our everyday lives. It’s also a BIG factor in determining prices of groceries.

    I read an excellent article this morning on one of the Dutch news sites that explained how the constant rain there – more than normal – will lead to significantly higher prices of fruit and vegetables this summer and fall in the Netherlands and elsewhere throughout Europe. Of course, drought can also cause higher prices.

    What got me interested in economics when I was in a Dutch high school were rigorous explanations for inflation, unemployment, economic growth and interest rates. The Dutch always presented a sober picture (devoid of politics) of these metrics as mostly determined by market factors having nothing to do with government policy. I remember my economics teacher saying, “on the economy, we shouldn’t praise our political leaders if things go well, or criticize them when things go poorly, they’re not in charge, the markets are.” This doesn’t mean that governments don’t have a role to play. As he (Dr. Bourgonje) said, “in emergencies, as a rule setter and to help the vulnerable and poor.”

  6. Never thought I’d see the Red Sox steal 9 bases in one game. Keep in mind, I grew up in the 70s when the Sox had power but were mostly slow. Tommy Harper and Jerry Remy stood out as the only real speedsters during that decade.

    1. 4-2 vs Phillies and Yankees, teams with 2 of the best records in baseball.

      The Sox are overachieving my expectation of them. May not qualify for even a wild card, but they are at least making me want to keep tabs on them.

      1. The Red Sox are competing and that is what you want to see as a fan. What is amazing the Yankees are 50-24 and tied in the loss column with the Orioles. The Orioles are 47-24

  9. I wonder if all the rains of the past year also take a 1F or 2F off what could be seen in this hot spell.

    On one hand, it’s been comparatively dry the last many weeks and I know the top layer of the ground can dry out quickly.

    I have to think not too far below the grounds surface, it can’t be that dry though. I wonder to what depth moisture can keep seeping upward towards the surface of if it’s more likely to sink further down into the ground ?????

    1. Interesting. My SIL never bled our irrigation system in the fall and got lucky because The ground never really froze solid last winter. Does that enter into your thoughts at all or is it just too far removed.

  10. Large circulation over Central America may become a G.O.M. tropical cyclone this week.

    Heavy rains of 6+ inches would occur in northeastern Mexico and adjacent southern Texas.

    Rain is needed in these areas which are in significant drought.

    So this system, despite being a flood threat, may end up doing more good than harm.

  18. Friday temp forecast …… good luck !!

    Reminds me of August 8, 2022.

    Coming off multiple days in a row of high heat and Aug 8 had relief in the form of a back door front.

    It came in at 2-3 pm at Logan and Marshfield, but by then, Logan hit 98F, Marshfield 98-100F. Then Marshfield got hit by a thunderstorm that had me stay in my favorite ice cream place for a half an hour until I was convinced it was lightning safe.

    And from a meteorology perspective, the airmass above stays toasty, so, if that wind doesn’t switch off the ocean and with at least a decent breeze, it’s not going to cool off much.

  19. Models struggling after Thursday when the dome starts breaking down in answering ….

    1) how much does it break down

    2) what does it eventually evolve today

    This run then deepens a trof/closed low in the western Great Lakes which downstream briefly builds the western Atlantic ridge which makes us hope and humid all weekend.

    Not that I buy that scenario, it’s just that they are struggling to resolve what happens after the dome breaks down or elongates to our south.

  20. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024061712&fh=30&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Pattern stability :

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024061712&fh=30&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024061712&fh=126&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024061712&fh=198&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Off the west coast or in the next 48 hrs, over the northwest US …..

    Trof, if not occasionally a closed low.

    When the west coast or just off the west coast of the US has a big ridge, the west coast fries and the central US is chilly and we won’t be too hot in the east coast.

    But this particular summer, at least early on, is the reverse. Trof out west. Either we, as will be the case of the next 72 hrs are going to roast or the central plains and Great Lakes will roast. Even when our heat backs off, it won’t be far away and any ripple can briefly send it back into New England for a day, here and there.

  21. Good afternoon and thank you TK.

    Was out fishing this morning. So_So luck.
    Saw 2 blue heron in full flight, that was a sight to behold.
    Saw a musk rat swimming by close to me and almost stepped on a little garter snake. 🙂

    Only made 70 here yesterday with overnight low of 59

    Currently 77

    Ocean temp was down to 61 and change this morning and now it is: 61.9 (Boston Buoy)

  22. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024061712&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Here’s an example.

    New trof into the Pacific Northwest, builds the ridge and heat into the Inter Mountain west and western plains with heat surging in those areas.

    Our weather will be impacted by how the WNW and NW flow orients itself downstream the ridge.

    In this projection it’s not very sharp or deep and so it remains toasty, even east of the central us ridge.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=850th&rh=2024061712&fh=222

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024061712&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  23. Heading to the barn this afternoon with my granddaughter. Not sure when she will ride again although she has a lesson scheduled for 6:00 pm
    Wednesday.

  24. Installed another AC yesterday add added the 3rd one today.
    All three tested and running AOK and ready to go.
    Hopefully we survive the heat onslaught.

  25. 12Z EURO is now FULLY onboard with BDF passage early on Friday! YEAH. 0Z still had it HOT!

  26. Someone mentioned cherry-picking in relation to weather reports and the lack of reporting on the unusual cold in Montana and vicinity.

    I don’t like cherries. And so, when someone says cherry-picking it has a very negative connotation. Needless to say, I don’t cherry-pick data or reports.

    2. The recon flight was supposed to leave around 2 PM I think. I’ll go back to my comment … social media will have this everywhere except where it will actually be.

  30. Philip, yes, my distaste for cherries includes Cherry Coke. The only other fruit I don’t like is raisins. I like all vegetables except fennel.

  31. If the Bruins had won the Stanley Cup, this blog would have been lit up like a Christmas tree by now. Oh well. :mrgreen:

  34. Congrats Celtics! Yes I watched the game. Nate & I were working on music at the same time. 🙂

    New weather post…

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