Tuesday June 18 2024 Forecast (7:37AM)

195 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

All on track from a blast of heat as high pressure aloft dominates the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south delivers the early season blast furnace over the next few days, as we lead up to the astronomical arrival of summer with the solstice, which occurs at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. General details of the forecast remain the same – hottest away from South Coast, moderate to high dew points but mainly staying under the oppressive threshold of 70, with a chance it drops off as a southwesterly air flow becomes more westerly on Thursday. Minimal pop up thunderstorm chances exist Wednesday and Thursday. A better chance of a few showers and storms will occur Friday as a front drops down from the north and cuts off what would have been a longer period of higher heat. You will be able to thank eastern Canadian high pressure for that. I still think this high presses far enough south for much of the region to be fairly comfortable and rain-free Saturday, though still can see showers/storms closer to the South Coast where the front will be hanging around.

TODAY: Patchy clouds for a while, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Watch June 23-25 for a few opportunities of showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary that comes into the region late week hangs around and tries to push back north. Details to be worked out for this period still. Generally fair, warm weather is anticipated with a more westerly flow by the middle of next week after a disturbance passes by, made possible by a retrogression of the upper ridge away from the East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

195 thoughts on “Tuesday June 18 2024 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 80 yesterday
    overnight low of 68
    current temp: 74

    ocean temp; 61.7 (boston buoy)

    Yeah Celtics!!
    Now, that is a TEAM!!

    1. Thursday, as far as best chance because the wind will be more westerly. I think they still may come up a little short, but not by much. 98F ??

      1. hhmm
        well the heat will have been buiilding for 2 days. so, yes, definitely a chance.
        We shall see. TK even has 101 as top range and for him, that’s saying sonething.

  6. Thank you TK.

    The Celtics came to play last night and brought us a championship! They led all the way and Payton Pritchard’s half court buzzer beater at the end of the 2nd told me all I needed to know.

    Next, a downtown parade, and lo and behold, they are now the betting favorites to win the championship again in the 2024-2025 season.

    1. It was beautiful !

      The motivator next year is ….. the last 6 champions haven’t gotten out of the 2nd round.

      The core is back, we’ll see how KP is, but they have a great opportunity to repeat.

  9. ☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️
    ☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️☘️

    CELTICS 2024 NBA WORLD CHAMPIONS !!!
    :mrgreen:

  12. hmmm
    I see signs from the WPC 7 day outlook that that heat could pretty much stay for a week. perhaps a brief reprieve for a bit on Saturday but then right back in here. Is this oossible? hope not.
    Euro was showing signs of that.

  13. Worcester Public Schools will close for the season after today due to the upcoming intense heat. Their last day was originally scheduled for Friday.

    1. Fairly uncomfortable, bordering on oppressive, BUT not there yet and hopefully doesn’t get there!

  21. 0Z Euro breaks the heat for Friday, Saturday and Sunday and brings it back in briefly on Monday.

  22. If Logan does NOT make 90- today, there will likely be NO heat wave for Boston despite all of the hype (Not here of course).

    1. It’s not quite 10:30 and Logan is up to 82.
      UNLESS Logan switches to a Sea Breeze, they WILL make 90.

      SO, the question is, Do you expect the wind to shift on shore along the immediate coast preventing 90 at Logan?

  24. Thanks, TK.

    Happy Birthday, Vicki!

    I am NOT impressed by this “heat dome,” which is the new hype phrase, analogous to “polar vortex” in winter. Keep in mind, I’m at the coast where it be as hot. As I write this it’s 84F where I am. Humidity is building, too. But, it’s not extreme by any stretch of the imagination.

    My curmudgeonly self says, when I was young we just said it’s going to be hot. In Bostonese, a “scorchah.”

    2. In some sense, I have to agree with you.

      Now if it were going to be 100-105 for 4 or 5 days, then I would be all over HEAT DOME! This stretch will just be normal routine hot/humid weather that we have seen a zillion times. NOTHING new!!!

  25. Logan dp 68
    Norwood 72
    Pawtucket 72
    Providence 70
    Bedford 70

    This is getting into the real YUCKY range!!!!

    1. hmmmm looks like some subsidence to me. Of course I could be all wet. 🙂
      Should drive the temperatures onward and upward!

  27. Now 84 at Logan, 6 degrees to go, BUT wind is West at a mere 5 mph. Will it turning Easterly BEFORE it reaches 90. That is the big question and the ONLY thing to watch for today. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  28. Just a few heat-induced ramblings 🙂

    Where does the 90 degree value for heat waves come from? Is there a list of such values for various locations in the US such as Fairbanks, AK and Death Valley, CA?

    Does anybody still refer to this situation as a Bermuda High, if in fact that is what we have? When I was a kid we had lots of Bermuda Highs but Heat Domes hadn’t been invented yet!

      1. Exactly, I think. It’s too far north and west.

        It’s literally over us, whereas when it’s a Bermuda high (ridge), we’re very influenced but on its northwest flank.

  29. The Mt Washington auto road temps are soaring quickly !!

    Suddenly 64.1F at the summit with 70s at lower levels and near 80F at its base.

    With that look on the water vapor, 95F maybe higher is possible at Logan (today !) if it doesn’t seabreeze.

  30. 83F with a 72F dp in Montreal.

    Hope far northern New England and extreme southern Canada north of New England are going to be ok the next few days.

    I’m thinking there’s a lot less folks with AC up there.

    1. Yup, Friday looks to be a NO SHOW for the heat.
      So it all boils down to today’s temperatures as to whether or not
      this will be an official heat wave. 🙂

      1. And there it IS!!!!! I do believe this was TK’s reasoning for no 90 at Logan and thus very likely NO HEAT WAVE officially for Boston (Neighborhoods, of course would be a heat wave!)
        We shall see if it shifts back to land breeze. So far it is a FEEBLE sea breeze.

  33. Just watched a wonderful Warm movie entitled
    Tyson’s Run about a high functioning autistic 15 year old who decides to compete in a marathon.
    A really heart warming movie. I really enjoyed it.
    Available on Netflix now.

  34. Thanks, TK, and HAPPY BIRTHDAY, VICKI!!!

    What a Celtics game and what a season!

    Sports radio mentioned last week that, of all of the Boston championship seasons this century, the 23-24 Celtics were about the only ones who dominated from start of the regular season to the Finals. I think the only blips on the radar were a three-game losing streak in the spring and a horrible Game 4 in Dallas Friday night.

    The Celtics bench played magnificently last night as they did throughout the playoff run. Every player knew what his role was, accepted it. and performed it!

    One of the great Celtics and NBA teams of all time!!!

    1. Totally agree. I almost became a basketball fan over the last 5 games. I have never been into basketball, but really enjoyed 4 of the last 5 games. The game 4 Stinker was NO joy to watch. 🙂

  35. 83 here with dp 69.
    We usually lag behind downtown. Not as many buildings and pavement and many many trees for transpiration. It actually keeps the temperature down a degree or 2 from what it could be. However, we seem to catch up later in the day. We shall see what it does today. 🙂

  38. 89 here in Sharon. One plus with this heat, at least for today, the air quality is still good

  42. 86 in SE Sutton. I’m betting other areas of sutton are closing in on 90. Pete posted records for these days. Kudos to him for sniffing this out last Wednesday.

    1929 94
    1923 96
    1953 98
    2012 96

    Typos (if there are any) are my bad not his

    I only recall one really nasty high heat on my birthday …it was at a horse show so would have been early to mid 1990z

  43. Now 90 at Norwood, 91 at Fitchburg and 90 at Jaffrey NH.
    getting HIGHER ALL THE TIME!

    Logan still 84 with SE breeze

  46. Quick peak at the 12z GFS just like the 12z NAM brings those few points into the 50s for eastern SNE Friday afternoon.

  48. Marshfield Airport reports gust to 13 and I can see a decent SW breeze looking at the trees.

    Going to be interesting if/when Logan switches to a land breeze.

    If it does at 2/3 pm, it will zoom well past 90F. Later switch, obviously lower.

      1. Logan just popped up to 86 EVEN with a SE breeze at 8 mph.
        The water out at Boston Buoy is just about 65 now. What is it closer to shore?

    2. And this from the Norton NWS discussion:

      The east coast of
      MA may have a brief seabreeze develop from approximately 15z-19z,
      when winds briefly turn to the SE, but should veer back to the SW
      after 19z, yielding highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

  50. Marshfield (as reported previously by TOM) has a WSW at 14 mph, yet Logan has a SE wind?????? What gives at that most SUCKY location sticking out in the Water at Logan????

    1. Happens a lot, but I feel like I observe it in marshfield around 2 or 3 and then Logan follows around 5 or 6. That’s why I wonder if Logan switches earlier, like around 3?

      I do think somehow, someway, or closer proximity to the south coast gets us some earlier assistance in switching to a SW wind on hot days. But that’s a complete guess.

      1. Sounds reasonable.
        THE NWS predicted 19Z for Logan to go to a SW wind.
        That would be, hmm, you guessed it. 3PM Exactly what you said. 🙂

  54. 12Z NAM has frontal passage some where between 2 and 8 AM
    on Friday. Plenty early enough to have Friday a RELIEF DAY!!!!
    YEAH!!!! Until then, well, endure.

  55. Logan now 84 with ESE wind at 10 mph. That should be enough to lower that temperature some. We shall see.

  61. I think Friday’s getting very close to being certain that it’s going to be a lot cooler.

    Maybe hot warm to hot CT can get and if they have a thunderstorm threat.

  62. And then, before the weekend’s out, does it just get more humid again or does it get very warm to hot and humid ahead of am approaching front from the northwest.

  63. On the link Vicki posted above, I can see Braintree Split and Weymouth and Quincy went to SW winds and are “gusting” to about 10mph

    I kind of think in some way, this is a push from the south coast that’s moving northward.

    I think Logan’s wind will switch over btwn say 2:45 and 3:20 pm

  64. Congrats to the Celtic fans – as a Knicks fan I knew they had it once we couldn’t get past the Pacers

    To SCLarke’s comment Heat Dome was invented about three years after Ring of Fire – anyone else have some good Heat phrases?

  72. Hopefully this situation gets corrected soon.
    From NWS Boston/Norton Skywarn

    As of Tuesday 6/18/24 at 220 PM – the Massachusetts Statewide 911 system has been reported by numerous sources to be out of service with ETA for restoration unknown. For emergency services, call your local city/town police or fire emergency line directly.

  75. 3:00 PM Obs. at Logan:

    85F
    E -13 mph

    Unless they get the “six o’clock jump” (as Todd Gross used to say), it certainly won’t make 90.

  76. For goodness sakes, it’s up to 90F in Hull and it looks like the ob isn’t down at nantasket beach, but further up, where you come to the end and can see Boston across the harbor.

    It’s a beautiful drive.

      1. I like to sit at the very end and watch the tidal current, either direction and it’s really a noticeable, fast current.

    2. Been there a zillion times!!! Indeed it is awesome. Fished there many times. I fondly remember pulling in 2 cod on the same line one November many many years ago. It had to be slack tide, else fishing was impossible. 🙂

      That buoy out there would bend greatly in the direction of the tide once it changes and got going. Pretty amazing.

  77. From Ryan Hanrahan

    The thermometer at Windsor Locks continues to run warm and is quite unrepresentative of nearby areas. Unfortunately we’ll have some bad data over the coming days.
    @NWSBoston
    has techs checking it out on Thursday

    1. Same problem a lot of those thermometers have.

      We saw it with Boston more than once. We saw it with several other stations around New England and I can only imagine how many around the country have the same issue.

    1. Your thermometer is high. No way it is that temp. No way.
      Your equipment has an accuracy of +- 2.5 degrees. That is a lot. 🙂
      Mu equipment is rated at +- 0.5 degrees. Huge difference.

    1. I just read that on the Belmont PD FB page. Three warning txts to say it is down and not one yet to say it is up and running. At least not here. Odd

    2. The message I just got saying that 911 service is restored also says “DO NOT place test calls to 9-1-1.”

      Oh boy…

  81. Logan is an ABSOLUTE JOKE!!!!
    Still 86 there with a sea breeze. I just walked down the center
    to get a hair cut. It was 93 here, dp 72 with a rip roaring SW to West wind. How can that be????????????????????????????????
    I’m about 6 miles from the airport. Makes no sense to me!

  83. AND the wind shift has FINALLY reach logan. Wind SSW at 9 mph and temperature is at 90. Looks like there WILL be a heat wave after all. I suspect Logan will make 92 or 93 with all of this hot stuff blowing their way across heated pavements and buildings etc.

  86. “Hottest interior valleys”

    One hundred percent nailed forecast today TK

    And I know Boston can still jump up several deg if the sea breeze quits but I love your 89 forecast and prediction of no heatwave at Logan

    DOH!

    1. Well that would be great if it were true but the
      sea breeze did quit and it is 91 at the airport.

      Always a chance that happens at the end of the day!

  90. According to Eric, today has the highest sun angle and the most daylight. As good as it gets?

    Sunrise: 5:07 am
    Sunset: 8:24 pm

    2. It stays like this a long while before any change is noticed.

      Same thing every year. There are no surprises.

  92. JPD is correct, I forgot to add a word – not – to my last post. I think the heat is messing with my mind.

    At least it’s not 125F as it was in Mecca today. Hundreds of deaths have been reported as many were overcome by the brutal heat during their pilgrimage to the sacred city.

    1. A mere 125, Nothing but a walk in the park! NOT!!!

      OMG how does anyone survive in that?

      Once where I worked, I had to enter an equipment room to perform some duties that took about 15 minutes and the thermometer in that room was reading 120! That was a BRUTAL 15 minutes I have to say!!!! Talk about hot!!!!

  96. Great short-handed goal for Edmonton.

    Boy does the announcer (color analyst) have a HEAVY Canadian accent. I like it, but he sounds like he’s from somewhere in the sticks of Alberta.

  99. Willie Mays has passed away.

    To me, Mays was the greatest baseball player of all time. He had all the tools.

    I like this picture of Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. See link below. I was lucky enough to meet Aaron once during a book signing. What an ambassador Aaron was to the game of baseball. He and Willie can now play a sandlot game in heaven. https://x.com/LeslieMinesIII/status/1803232846804361528

  100. Thanks TK and Happy Birthday Vicki! Hope you enjoyed your day.

    Right or wrong, BDL topped out at 95F degrees today with a 72 DP which yielded a max heat index of 103. Down the road in Hartford (Brainard Apt), the high was 90 with a DP of 71 and max heat index of 95. Shouldn’t be that much of a disparity 10 miles away so makes sense that some calibration is needed to the equipment at BDL.

    1. Thank you, Mark.

      Playing the devils advocate. Could Hartford be the one that needed calibration ;). We were 4 degrees above another area of sutton…..the one I said elsewhere here that I was sure would be warmer than we were 🙄 ….

      Just curious not disagreeing at all. And this from the person who thought Bradley was in the NW part of CT. Closer to Suffield

      1. BDL/W Locks usually is a few degrees warmer than Hartford in the summer, I think because they get more down sloping off the hills in NW Hartford County when the winds have a westerly component. But today there was a south wind. I could see a degree or two higher but the 95 seems out of place in comparison to the other readings in the area.

        NWS techs are checking it out on Thursday per Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet earlier this PM.

        1. Great info. Thank you. And makes good sense. I had a feeling you’d know more than I. Not sure I’ll see the update from NWS; but if you think of it, I’d love to know what they find.

    2. Those sensors have been a problem. Nearly ALWAYS in the “too warm” direction. I’ve been saying it for a few years. As somebody who looks at this stuff day in and day out, you know when something’s off. This is why Ryan spotted it.

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