Wednesday June 19 2024 Forecast (7:47AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

Two days of heat before a cold front from the north turns the dial down a few notches for Friday and the coming weekend. As previously discussed, the combination of a strong upper level ridge on the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south brings us the end-of-spring / start-of-summer blast furnace. We greet summer officially with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances are pretty small today, with just a few isolated pop-ups possible in the region from central MA’s hills to southern NH late afternoon to early evening, and the chance goes up a little bit on Thursday as we start to feel the effects of an approaching cold front from the north, with the threat that day being of isolated to scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening, favoring areas north of the Route 2 corridor, especially southern NH. A few of these can survive a little further southward at night and into early Friday. Frontal timing looks fairly early on Friday with a regionwide shift of wind to north and northeast from north to south during the morning and midday hours, preventing much of the region from having time to rise to or above 90. Additionally, a lot more clouds will hang around on Friday and there can be a few additional showers around. Canadian high pressure should be strong enough to limit Saturday’s shower threat to the South Coast and the hills to the west, with much of the region enjoying dry weather. Sunday, however, the boundary will attempt a comeback with clouds becoming more dominant, and a shower threat, but again greatest to the south and west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, favoring north central MA and southern NH late-day. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible mainly southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Potential for scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring the I-90 belt southward. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland areas, warmest southwest of Boston. DP 60s. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Additional showers and thunderstorms possible in the region as a disturbance moves through from west to east June 24. This should be followed by a return to mainly fair and dry weather for mid period, with a possible shower as some warmth/humidity tries to return end of period. But the large scale pattern should feature less East Coast ridge, which will be back to the west with more of a west to northwest flow in our region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

137 thoughts on “Wednesday June 19 2024 Forecast (7:47AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Hit 93 here yesterday with overnight low of 71

    currently: 75

    Ocean temperature: 63.1 (Boston buoy)

    Let’s see how high it goes today.

    Pete had 95 for today and 98 for tomorrow. (Boston)

    We shall see.

    Our 3 window Acs (6,000 btu each) worked great yesterday. With strategic doors opened or closed, we essentially had central air for 3/5 of the house. Hope it holds in the higher heat today and tomorrow. If not, we can keep 3 large rooms quite cool.

    1. Good news and good luck going forward. We did the same in Framingham and had it pretty much down to a science

  7. This heat is just not acting as some previous heat.
    It is nearly 10AM and it is only 81 here. I have seen it approaching 90 by 10AM in really hot weather.
    So I expect high temperature here in JP to be in the period
    4-6 PM. Just a slow steady increase which is FAR better than
    a rapid rise to 90. 🙂
    I won’t even predict a high temperature for my location, but i suspect somewhere between 94 and 97. It was 93 yesterday, so I am sure we will exceed that. The question is by how much.

    1. 3KM NAM and NAM has 850 mb temp at 20C which would give an approximate high temp of 95 or 96.
      HRRR has 850 MB temp at 19C which would equate to a high temp of about 94.

    2. Interesting. As I watched what didn’t seem to be a typical rise yesterday, I had the same thought.

      We are up to 81 after an overnight low of 69. Our high yesterday was 93 with DP above 70

  9. TK …..I’m interested in and curious about your last comment yesterday. It’s something I’ve tried to figure out with my Sensors. I have a lot of faith in Ryan also. He was one of the folks I emailed last time it was thought Logan sensor was off. He believed it had been off a year ish before that time but it was not off then. Also Marks explanation made great sense .

    I have several temp sensors here and they can be in sync most of the time but occasionally …and more so in summer….one reads consistently higher than the others. I tend to think sun is reflecting off the siding near it but am not positive of the cause. I’m curious what could cause a temp sensor to read incorrectly only part of the time

  10. Great observation JpDave and Vicki about it only being in the low 80s at 10am, when in some of our hottest days in the last, it can be 90F by now.

    It is 88-90F now in northern New England. Part of this is that the center of the ridge is so far north, that the highest 850 mb temps are in northern New England today. Smaller factor, I think, is since it’s “only” mid June, the south coast water temps are approaching 70 and not approaching 80, like in July.

    Tomorrows the day, I think for it to be near 90F in southern New England by 10am as the ridge slowly breaks down, those warmest 850 temps sink south over us.

      1. And based on the 850 mb temps I am seeing, highs tomorrow should only be about 95 or so.

        I am thinking this Heat Dome, Heat wave incredible heat is a crock of Sh**!!! NOTHING we haven’t seen before.
        Just routine Summer Like Heat, that is all.

        What’s the big deal? One would think we have NEVER seen this before. The hype is just beyond out of control!!!!

      1. Yes, they look alike here, don’t they, but I feel like I can still see a few lighter shades mixed in, in southern New England while I see a few dots of a higher contour mixed in up north.

        Perhaps it’s a 50/50 mix …..

        A degree to 1.5C warmer up north at 850mb and they have no indirect influence from the south coast.

        Up north is running about 6F warmer, so perhaps each is contributing 3F ??? 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. ????? tis a mystery. Also, the models may not be 100% accurate. What we need is real time 850MB temperatures. 🙂

    3. Thank you, Tom, and a big thank you to JPD for noticing. My guess is I would have thought I was imagining things if he hadn’t mentioned.

  11. The last 12-24 hrs have ever so slightly seemed to slow the back door front through on Friday.

    There was a cycle or 2 where it was through before 12z, but not on the 00z cycle. Logan and most of the area on this cycle is warming quickly at 12z

    I thought early yesterday, Logan might be capped at 75F-77F for a high around 7am, but now I’m thinking it might be 82-84F for a high about 9-10am.

    1. Pete said 82. We shall see. For selfish reasons, I want that
      front through EARLIER rather than later!!! We have a function on Sunday and my wife needs 2 full days to recover from the heat/humidity, that is why the sooner the front passes Friday the better!

      With out luck it will stall and it will remain HOT the whole freakin weekend.

      1. I hope it works out JpDave and I hope she is doing well !

        I was happy to read above how well your house is staying cool !

        1. Thanks Tom. Yesterday wasn’t bad the way we had the set up. We’ll see how it works with the hotter temperatures. 🙂

    1. Same reasoning at play, I believe. The ridge is so far north, the highest humidity is going over the top of us too.

  13. Well, months ago, my wife was fiddling through her pocketbook and discovered an unused gift card for a hotel in Wellfleet. We booked tonight and tomorrow night back in spring sometime, I think it was.

    We’re headed out soon, coming back Friday, so off to some natural air conditioning.

    Stay cool, everyone !

  17. If this was July and August no big deal with this blast of heat. Ryan Hanrahan mentioned this in a tweet a few days ago we deal with this heat a couple times a year. What is grabbing the headlines is that it is taking place in June.

    1. June, spoon who cares. We’ve seen it in June before. I don’t see the big deal at all. 🙂

  22. The stronger part of the ridge is north of here.

    Down here the temps are slower to rise. Also more moisture lingering in ground which requires energy to get rid of.

    Ironically DPs are lower toward the S Coast. It’s opposite of what I expected… For now anyway.

    1. Nws has our DP at 77. Explains why walking out the door feels as if I hit a brick wall. I did.

  25. JPD my apologies. I thought I’d posted about Tyson’s run. I clearly got side tracked and forgot.

    It is one of the best I’ve seen in a long while. It was a perfect hot day/birthday movie. Thank you for suggesting it

  26. Temp in Swampscott 89. Might make it to 90+.

    DP is about 1,000 and climbing! Fortunately got the shore walk in early.

    Sox, 4 in a row,

  34. what we’re not getting in temperature is being made up by the dew point resulting in dangerous heat index levels.

    I was outside aa few minutes ago and it was BRUTAL!!!

  37. CAR with a tied June high temp record of 96°.

    This record was also set in 2020, 1977, and 1944.

    1. At first I thought you meant you vehicle thermometer, then I realized you meant Caribou, ME

    2. Was just about to post that Augusta and Bangor had hit 95 with a heat index of 105. Didnt even look that far north! Impressive for Maine any time, let alone in mid June.

  38. Thanks TK.

    BDL has hit 96 with a DP of 72 and heat index of 105.

    Like yesterday, Hartford/Brainard is 5 degrees cooler at 91F with a DP of 72 and heat index of 99.

    1. Yeah Severe Thunderstorm Warning right now for SW NH. Storm near Keene with 60 mph winds and quarter size hail. Some temporary relief for them.

    1. I’m not impressed but I’m
      Darned uncomfortable when I go outside. Asthma is in overdrive.

      94 here now and dp is 77. Both confirmed by NWS.

  41. Hi all! Your professional lurker is back.

    Been really busy with family stuff. My MIL finally passed a month ago. She had been hoping to pass for 7 months, so finally peace for her. There were other health dramas amongst our weather family and I hope they were resolved or will be resolved.

    There is a local power failure in our area and it seems that ground zero is in our complex. We are still hanging in there but it isn’t a good sign when there are 8 guys standing and looking into a hole with hands on their hips. We have cranked the A/C up in case we lose it later.

    And I have an idea to throw out to everyone. It has occurred to me that every day of the year we wake up….go to the blog….and there is all the accurate weather info one could ever hope to find. All brought to us by TK, free of charge. And in so doing this, the poor guy never takes a day off. And it is amazing considering the professional and personal challenges he has.

    So….my idea…..why don’t we create one week out the the year (to be determined, of course) where TK takes a break and WE do the forecasts. There are so many really great people on this site who know so much. TK can observe, of course, but must stifle his laughter until the week is done.

    I would like comments as to whether this would be fun or even make any sense.

    1. What an idea. Not sure how one would organize it. THere might end up 20 different forecasts by 20 different posters. 🙂 Frankly it might be unmanageable or completely HILARIOUS! 🙂

      1. I guess it is worth a fun discussion. One way around the unmanageable might be that we agree on a limited number of people the first time, just to work out the kinks.

        Anyways, sometimes my brain is unmanageable, so I have some experience in that area.

    2. Very sorry to hear about your MIL.

      Love your idea about the guest forecasts for a week and would volunteer to do one of the days (preferably in the winter 🙂 )

      Would also be great to get a WHW gathering together at some point at a venue of TK’s choice and we could treat him there as well. Would be fun to meet up with everyone live and in person.

      1. Thanks for your kind wishes Mark.

        A few years ago, some of us met at The Yard House in Dedham. TK joined us. Great suggestion for us to get together again.

        1. I remember that now and unfortunately had kid commitments on the night that was chosen to meet up. Yard House is a good place. Looks like they can accommodate groups there if there are enough people and I am happy to organize if there is interest.

    3. Always nice to see your posts. I’m So very sorry to hear of your MILs passing but am happy she is at peace.

      I love this idea. I could never begin to forecast but I can type. I’d be happy to have someone dictate the forecast to me. And we have enough of us who have WP experience so that someone can upload.

      1. Thanks, Vicki. Let’s keep that discussion going. If I was still on cable access tv, I could have had the cameras ready to broadcast lol.

      2. I think it would be quite simple actually. Just pick one person a day to do the forecast. Write it up in an email the night before or first thing in the AM and email to TK (or his admin :)) to upload in WP at the time he normally does it.

  42. The air conditioning is so cold in my office that I actually walked outside to warm up. Wasnt as bad as I thought out there,,,,there is actually a nice breeze and some cirrus clouds filtering out the sun a bit. Run of the mill summer heat.

    1. EXACTLY. NOTHING out of the ordinary.
      With the hype one would think it was the Apocalypse!

    2. I sure agree that is summer heat. I know dates heat records were set for each day and some go pretty far back. I’m curious about the DP. Do we keep records for DP?

  43. Thanks TN! Today is the day to be by the beach. Here in South Dartmouth on -‘Anthony Beach and breeze is whipping along Buzzards Bay. Temp 84 – dew point 68. Relatively speaking this feels hot for this area. It really is prefect for me although I wish the breeze would die down a tad.

  46. Did Meso West just go BONKERS?????

    Latest reading from Logan:
    Temp: 98
    DP: 72
    Wind WEST 9 mph
    Heast Index: 107

    Good grief what happened? it jumped 5 degrees with the wind shift to West.

    1. OR Heat Index. Sorry about the typo. This lap top key board doesn’t agree with me. TOO hot where my desktop is located.

  49. Ryan Hanrahan tweeted yesterday the nws Boston is coming Thursday to be BDL to look at the temperature sensor.

  50. A dear friend in concord NH said they had one round of storms. That dropped the temp 10 degrees. She hears another round coming.

    1. Similar to what is going on at BDL you will notice on that map that the other reporting stations near Boston are all 3+ degrees lower.

      1. only 94 here and I am about 6 miles from the airport.
        My Davis Equipment is rated at +- 0.5 degrees and it has been extremely accurate. We have a shit ton of trees around providing for a good deal of transpiration which can account for some degree of cooling. Plus we don;t have the wind coming across heated pavement and buildings. That’s my story and i’m sitking to it!!!

        btw, dp is now 75 here!!!! with temp at 94 = 106 heat index

        1. I shared a pic of the sensor location at Logan. I can’t get down as close as i would like but the sensor seems to be off on its own.

    2. I wasn’t sure what I was seeing on MesoWest was correct, Guess it was. I thought that maybe a jet was spewing warm exhuast towards the sensor. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Or a sea gull took a shit on the sensor,

  52. Looking at those heat index values there places meeting excessive heat warning values.

  54. I have a weather widget on my phone for Jamaica Plain and it says that the high for JP was 94. I concur. 🙂

        1. Sorry was taking notes at a meeting and posted without finished. I want to wait to see if I hear back from all I emailed. But Hadi, judging by what I have heard so far, your sensor may be just fine too.

  55. Thanks, TK.

    We are planning to hike in/around Wellfleet Friday morning and wonder how early in the day we might need to be looking out for storms, since the front will be moving north to south.

    And Tom, so glad you’re headed for that area as well. School got out just in time!

  56. Just got back from annual PCP appointment. Good report!

    Now I just have to finish getting the autoimmune flare back to remission – almost there …

    I am heading to Hampton Beach NH. Quick scheduling of fireworks tonight after they got the all clear from the wildlife folks on the departure of the piping plovers. It’s all clear!

    They decided to start the weekly Wed display today instead of next week, to make up for the ppd display in late May.

    Most of the thunderstorms to the W & N of Boston should be dissipating as we lose the stronger solar heating.

    Peak heat day 2 tomorrow, maybe a few late-day t-storms, then we bust the hot spell on Friday, which I’ve been anticipating would happen for quite a few days now.

    Have a great evening all!

  58. It’s becoming very likely that we’re about to break the record for the latest date without a named storm in the Eastern Pacific.

  59. Also, we’re not really going to return to high heat next week. Not the right set-up. More of an up and down temp pattern.

    I’ll get more into this and other things the next few days.

    I’m also in the transition period between old phone and new phone so I have a lot of reorganizing to do there…

      1. The worst heat I have ever experienced in my life was about 7 years ago when I was vacationing in Virginia. 105 air temperature dewpoints upper 70s feeling like mid 110s.

  63. Come on Gov. Hochul….what a joke!

    CBS New York
    @CBSNewYork
    Jun 18

    Governor Hochul gives a warning to New York residents about dangerous heat, “with temperatures we have not seen in our lifetime,” as the state prepares for a heat wave starting Tuesday and lasting through the rest of the week. https://cbsnews.com/newyork/news/nyc-heat-wave-weather-forecast-preparations/

    And look at the high temps for the week there, lol:
    https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1803487261931217079

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