Thursday June 20 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)

181 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

Spring to Summer – but already feeling like mid summer today! Solstice occurs at 4:50 p.m. …and it’s gonna be another hot day across the region (a little cooler in direct ocean wind South Coast regions). Use caution if outside. This, of course, is due to a continuation of high pressure parked to our south and an upper level high pressure ridge along the East Coast. Locally, our dew point may come down a bit today if we get enough west wind, but that can make the air temperature a little hotter due to a down slope of the air off the hills / mountains to the west. A few records can be matched or fall today. Another thing to monitor for today are thunderstorms which can pop up air-mass style any time after noon or 1 p.m. and then we may see a more organized line sweep part of the region late afternoon or evening. This is in advance of a cold front approaching from the north. That front will pass by our area on Friday, shutting the big heat down. While the humidity will lessen, don’t expect a crispy-dry Canadian air mass. But it will be “better” nonetheless. And this will also last on Saturday with enough influence from an eastern Canadian high pressure area. As for weather, we can still see some scattered shower activity Friday with the front passing by, and Saturday less so, but favoring areas to the south and west, closer to a a slowing frontal boundary. This front will try to amble back to the north Sunday, a more humid day, with additional showers possible over more of the region, including a thunderstorm chance too. Sunday’s not a wash-out, but likely more regionally unsettled than Saturday. One more disturbance comes through from the west Monday with additional showers and thunderstorms likely.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms develop. A more organized thunderstorm line potentially from southern NH into northern and central MA late day / early evening. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP around 70 may lower somewhat during the day. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Shower/thunderstorm chance early, then isolated showers overnight. Lows 71-78, warmest urban centers. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Potential for scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring the I-90 belt southward. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland areas, warmest southwest of Boston. DP 60s. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston, including the slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

A large high pressure area builds in with fair, drier weather much of this period, starting with seasonable temperatures then a late-period warm up.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A west to northwest flow with a high pressure ridge in the Midwest means a couple shower / t-storm chances and variable temperatures mainly near to a little above normal.

181 thoughts on “Thursday June 20 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)”

    1. Thanks JJ. Will have to monitor to see if a Severe Thunderstorm watch is issued later today.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Hit 94 at my location yesterday with overnight low of 73

    Currently: 79

    Ocean temp: 63.5 (Boston buoy)

    Temperature rise seems faster today than yesterday. We shall see how high it goes.

    Pete had another 98 for Boston today, but did say 100 was “possible”. If that were to happen, today would be the day.

    NWS has an Air Quality Alert out for today:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=air%20quality%20alert

    Current reading for my location from my IQAir app is 39
    which is in the good range. So far so good, Will monitor throughout the day.

    1. Oh and Dew point is 64. MUCH better than yesterday. WE shall
      see if that will be on the rise or not.

  3. This is not a big severe weather day but like last Friday some towns could get hit with a severe thunderstorm today.

  7. Re yesterday’s 98. I have three of five responses. I’m still looking for an email for a sixth person I email and oddly cannot find it. But it’s enough that I have the respect for these folks that tells me we did break with record.

    All three have said the Same thing as Mark and, as Mark said, Ryan pointed out…..Bradley is broken. None have seen anything off with Logan leading up to this or for a long time.

    NWS has confirmed the 98.

    JPD was really close when he said (and I’m paraphrasing) heat from a jet hit the sensor. But it was (to quote one response) “searing heat from the city.”

    The wind turned briefly west and pushed the heat from Boston to Logan. I checked the Nws site and it has a brief west wind also. Wish I’d thought to do that yesterday.

    Hadi, perhaps your sensor picked up on that too

    1. Thank you Vicki. Yes, I picked up on that brief shift of the wind
      to West. Logan’s temp jumped 5 degrees from 93 to 98.
      At first I thought it was a glitch and short of that the only
      explanation I could come up with was the built up heat from the city (pavements, bricks, buildings etc)
      The jet exhaust and sea gull shit were attempts at kidding around. 🙂

      NO such heat from the city here in JP.

      When we report our temperatures from our various locations, I think it important that we also report of the sensitivity
      of our equipment. Some equipment out there have brutal specs. On some brand I have seen the accuracy rated
      as +/- 2.5 degrees!! That is outrageous and that equipment
      shouldn’t even be sold.

      I spent a lot of money for my Davis Equipment and even that
      is rated at +/- 0,5 degrees which is about as good as you can
      get for reasonable priced equipment out there.

      If a 94 is reported from equipment rated at +/- 2.5 then
      the real temperature could be anywhere from 91.5 to 96.5
      That is simply not acceptable.

      With a rating of +/- 0.5 then the range would be
      93.5 to 94.5 quite a bit more acceptable.

      Anyway, end of my sensitivity rant.

    2. You’re welcome. These guys are great at getting back to me. And I knew your comment was said in jest

      Having been told from the start of my weather watcher days with Todd gross that my readings were off a degree, I’ve been paranoid about being accurate. As I’ve said here, I compare my two sensors and then confirm with the kestrel which Pete, JR and Eric all recommended as my best choice . And is what nws uses. I also have a nws sensor a mile from my home and use that for comparison

      I’ll figure how to tell sensitivity of my small unit. It is NOT close to yours.

      I also know Logan is calibrated regularly.

  11. Weather station equipment temperature sensor accuracy

    AcuRite
    Temperature: +/- 2 degrees Fahrenheit
    laCross
    Temperature: +/- 2 degrees Fahrenheit
    Ambient
    Temperature: +/- 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit
    Sainlogic
    Temperature: +/- 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit
    Davis
    Temperature: +/- 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit

    I think I have made my point. Sorry for being such a STICKLER!!!

    1. Thank you. And you’re not a stickler. I’m a fanatic about accuracy which extends beyond weather. While searching just now, I discovered kestrel has a trade up program. Oh dear. I will give them a call today.

    1. Except maybe for Montana? Perhaps we should wait until
      July 1st. I believe the yearly totals run 7/1 – 6/30 anyway. 🙂

      Nice to see you around.

      1. Awesomely, thanks !

        We went to Marconi Beach for a while and then had dinner at the Beachcomber.

        There’s some people down here, but not overwhelming yet.

        Weather wise, I’d say the high was about 82F yesterday and once it hit about 7pm, it fell into the low-mid 70s. It is humid but the breeze is quite refreshing.

        1. Beautiful area! We have been to Marconi Beach before.
          Of course, the drive-in was a real hang out back in the day.
          We saw JAWS there in 1975. Was creepy being in the water the next day. 🙂

          1. I’m sure on being back in the water.

            There were several seals around. Some moving individually and others in groups. I really enjoy seeing them.

            And tons of surfers ! Especially around 4-5pm when the low tide and shallow sand bars were helping the waves out.

            At least on this day, majority of the surfers were women. Just an observation. 🙂

            1. I tried surfing at Coast Guard Beach once. I wasn’t very good at it, but it was fun trying.

              How is the Water? It is about 63 out there, but I wonder how it is at the shore? Should be at least 65 or so. Cool, to be sure, but tolerable???

  16. Logan’s West wind is quite light at 5 mph.
    Hmmm Could they go to yet another sea breeze?
    Time will tell.

  18. That has been weird about the dps.

    Under such a ridge, my throw out there theory is during the day, the very high angle sun is evaporating all that rain we’ve had the last year plus and the humidity in the air is relatively stagnant under this 500mb dome.

    Then, at night, the sun’s evaporation obviously takes a break.

    Now, tonight, with the bdf approaching, I’ll theorize the dps won’t drop off, like they have the previous 2 nights.

    1. Interesting assessment as always from you. Most interesting!!
      Quite plausible as well.
      Agree about tonight as well.

      Will we get into the thunderstorm activity? OR will it remain N&W of the Boston and South Shore areas?
      Time will tell.

        1. Oh Race point beach is awesome. Water is fairly cold there, perhaps coldest on the Cape, imho for what it’s worth.
          Go a few miles to Herring Cove and it is toasty warm. 🙂

          Suggestion, if you can. Rent some bikes and ride the trails in/around/through the sand dunes. Nice take. 🙂

  19. Here we go. We have LIFT OFF!

    Logan is now up to 88 with dp 70 at near 10 AM. This is a more typical temperature rise for a truly hot day. HOW high will it go?
    Wind WSW at 7mph. Still holding any sea breeze at bay.

    85 here, dp 70

    I’ll say it again. Transpiration and NO wind coming off pavements and buildings. Only makes sense that we would be less than Logan. However, we tend to pretty much catch up later in the day.

  23. Hopefully no severe weather for tomorrow morning’s 11:00 am parade. The route is starting at Boston City Hall Plaza and ending at Hynes Convention Center (Copley Sq.). In past parades the route was in the opposite direction, ending with a rally at City Hall Plaza. I remember 1981 when the Celtics won their championship, Larry Bird (#33) announced that “Moses Malone eats S***!!!”

    I wonder if there will be a brief “rally” (with speeches) at City Hall Plaza before the parade actually begins?

      1. It’s a handheld weather instrument. There are others but the Mets I spoke to recommend kestrel.

        “Roughly it Measures heat stress index, relative humidity, dew point temperature, wind chill, air/water/snow temperature, current/average/maximum wind speeds”

        I have rhe 3000. But am thinking about upgrading to the 5000. That model has Bluetooth and will send info to my phone or iPad …apparently even id turned off. That is one thing I need to confirm first though as the pay auto off after about 25 minutes.

  26. Joshua, just wondering. Are you able to watch the parade tomorrow from your apartment complex? Do you live along the parade route?

  27. I don’t know if this is accurate or not, BUT Norwood is currently displaying a dew point of 77 !!!!!!!

  29. Dr. S .. Snow season runs July 1 thru June 30.

    The “official” final total is TBD until 10 days from now.

          2. My DIL’s cousin said they had four seasons and possibly a fifth on Chebeague Island weekend before last …hail was included. I asked her if she has a name for the fifth.

      1. Well, at my age in this weather I am CERTAINLY NOT!!!!!
        I am faring better than many, but I am NOT buzzing around!!

        2. Ditto. Surprises me when I think of the shows where we’d canter around getting this and that for rider and horse. Ohhh to be young again

  32. NWS discussion concerning possible thunder storms:

    The other big issue revolves around scattered t-storms this
    afternoon and evening with the focus in northern MA. Despite
    limited effective shear struggling to exceed 20 knots…robust
    instability for our part of the country with afternoon MLCapes
    exceeding 2000 J/KG and perhaps up to 3000 J/KG will develop.
    Steep low level lapse rates will be in place as well. The
    Machine learning probs from the CSU to the Nadocast and HRRR
    Neurel network are showing a fairly robust signal for localized
    damaging wind gusts possible. This makes sense given the unusual
    amount of instability coupled with steep low level lapse rates.
    In addition…SPC Meso- Analysis indicates DCape to exceed 1000
    J/KG which is another solid signal. Main risk will be across
    northern MA…but may see a few storms migrate further south
    given the instability in place. In addition…Pwats of 2+ inches
    will support torrential rain with any of these t-storms and a
    very localized flooding threat.

  34. Just bit the bullet and ordered the kestrel 5000. I was going to trade in my 10 month old 3000 but it is like new and trade in would be about $30 minus shipping.

  36. Sitting at herring cove, our favorite area near race point and we went all the way to the end of the lot. Hand full of people out here.

    What a breeze ! Nearby mesonet has it at 24 mph with a temp of 79F, it’s really comfortable.

  37. Here we are at 90 with a DIGUSTING DP of 74 !!!!!
    heat index of 99.7
    So, what is the explanation for the OVER ACHIEVING DEW POINTS????

    1. With the heat and those dew points, there is certainly PLENTY
      of fuel for thunderstorms. Will there be a lifting mechanism
      near Boston for these OR will they remain N&W?

  38. Severe thunderstorm watch just issued a minute ago.
    Image and discussion NOT quite ready.

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0438
    – Valid until: 06/21/2024 0000Z
    – States affected: MA ME NH NY VT AN CW
    – Issued: 1 minute ago

  42. The dp during the day in this setup has been nuts !

    And, there’s a chance for some region wide precip in the next 2-3 weeks, so, if in mid July thru August there’s another big ridge set-up, we’re going to have to remember from this one how the dps are likely to overachieve during the day.

  45. 1 storm is South of Springfield latitude and moving about due East. Should they hold together, Boston could be visited by thunder .

  47. now 94, 73 here. Can’t go into the other 1/2 of the house as it is like a furnace!!!!! Our internet is out, but I have my phone and can connect my laptop to internet eith phone usb.

    1. Thanks JPDWSW to SW wind. Pete has been on the dot with this since last week.

      Clouds building here

  51. 97F now at BDL with a DP of 71 and heat index of 105.

    Heat index reached 107 when the DP rose to 74 around 2PM.

  52. NWS post :re the Logan temp spike yesterday….

    NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston

    Many are wondering what caused the temp to spike to 98F in Boston today for a very short period of time. Notice that winds went due W, compared to SSW, allowing a hotter airmass to move over the airport! Temps cooled back to around 93F as soon as the wind shifted back to the SSW

    https://x.com/NWSBoston/status/1803625482740760831

    1. Thanks mark. Suspect you didn’t see my post above. Mets I emailed said the same last night. Pete went so far as to reach out to nws before he emailed back.

      2. Yes I did see your post but liked the chart the NWS included in that tweet as it shows the temps and wind speeds/direction every 5 min. Shows how truly brief the wind shift and temp spike were.

  54. So far BDL has tied the record high for the date. I think they will fall short of 100. There has not been a 100 degree temperature in CT during June since 1964

    1. There have been 100F+ temps recorded in CT in June before as SAK mentioned the other day, just not at the official reporting stations.

      I thought BDL had a shot at 100F today earlier in the week but dont think it is going to happen either. In reality, they werent that close either, factoring in the broken thermometer.

  55. Check out these overnight temps last night at Caribou, ME…..

    https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCAR.html

    After tying the all-time record high yesterday of 96, they only got down to 77 overnight just before 5AM. It was still 80 there with a heat index of 84 at 2AM! That is crazy for that far north.

    Yesterday, in addition to tying the all time high, the low of 71F tied their record maximum low temperature on record. If it werent for the front moving there today, they would have shattered that record today but it looks like they are going to drop into the upper 60’s tonight before midnight and then down to a more refreshing 57 for an overnight low. So the low for today will likely be recorded just before midnight.

    Nonetheless, 77 up there for an overnight low is impressive, even though the record books for the day will show a cooler low.

  57. NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    28m

    Aviso de Tormenta Severa continúa Greenfield MA, Turners Falls MA, Millers Falls MA hasta las 4:30 PM EDT

  58. NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    44m

    Aviso de Inundación Repentina incluye Northfield MA, Bernardston MA, Leyden MA hasta las 6:45 PM EDT

      2. Why would the NWS post that in Spanish?
        Or were you just being funny? 🙂

        btw I pretty much got what they were saying..
        Had 3 years of Spanish and 5 years of French, yet I rememeber much more Spanish. Was in Mexico some time ago and got by with my limited Spanish. 🙂

  59. As JJ mentioned….

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    29m

    98F at BDL breaks the old record of 97F set in 2012.

  64. So far things are going as expected today.

    I am very glad that NWS sent out a message explaining why the spike to 98 took place at the airport.

    There was a reason why I had the temperature range that I had yesterday and today.

    All of you know here how that can happen. Because we have spoken about the west wind many times. Hopefully many others learned something!

    1. I am glad also. I didn’t expect to hear it was a sensor problem, but we are very lucky to have Mets who take the time to answer questions.

    2. It was quite a sudden and rather large jump in temperature from
      93 to 98 in a very short time. Pretty interesting.

      If it was real, then I knew exactly what it was instantly.
      I just wasn’t sure it was real. 🙂

  65. so, for my location the heat wave looked like this:

    Tues 93
    Weds 94
    Thurs 95

    Hot, sure. Unheard of? Hardly. Big Deal? NOPE.

    1. It’s back to what you said a couple of days ago. Or how I read your comment. Apologies if you had not intended as I read. Temps are not as much an issue as dew points. And for me the DPs reached beyond oppressive more than once.

  67. Thanks, TK.

    When a wall of heat hits you as you exit a building that’s when you know it’s summer. I don’t like the feeling at all. But I know others do. The furnace feel is quite something for anyone who’s never experienced it before. And it can even be a shock to someone who has experienced it but not in a while, as when I’d return home from the Netherlands in the early 80s (1983 stands out).

    All this said, we are blessed to have all 4 seasons in our part of the world. We have real tropical heat in summer and real (sometimes Arctic-driven) cold in winter, though it’s mostly been a.w.o.l. in the last 2 years. Spring features a bit of everything and fall is distinctively crisp at night while being warm during the day.

  68. Temps / DP SE Sutton

    Tuesday June 18. 93 / 76
    Wednesday June 19 94 / 78
    Thursday June 20 95 / 80

  69. Looking at some of the Boston 7 day’s this evening ……

    Some have close to 90F Sunday and another day next work week ….

    Coming out of June with 5 (90F) days at Logan ?

    Quite a launching pad, not that it guarantees a warm to hit pattern the rest of the summer.

  72. Or we could look back at the summer of 2024 and say this was the worst of the heat. Will see if this is an omen of what is in store this summer.

  73. Quite a line of west of here and north. I’m betting they fall apart or don’t reach here 🙁

  75. the wind is rally picking up on north shore. Sort of a wind burst. Sky is absolutely black.

    1. My grandson and I just said the same. Very dark overhead but not on the horizon and quite windy

  77. Severe Thunderstorm Watch extended until 11pm. This is not a surprise looking at the radar and seeing multiple severe thunderstorm warnings at the moment.

      1. I feel like it has been a while since we have seen a sky like this, but probably it has occurred more recently than I think. i’m getting it all … lightning, thunder, and rain.

  80. Raining here. No thunder (yet).

    Philip, I do live close to the parade route. I wish the Celtics and their fans well. But I won’t be attending.

  82. When that thin line on radar that you alluded to, preceding the line of storms came through, it produced some pretty gusty winds here.

  83. Just about to get into the fading line of storms as they make their way southeast ward. It is doing a fairly nice job of cooling it down as well as lowering the dew point. Temp 75 and dew point 69. A far cry from the 81 dew point I had earlier, which was the highest dew point to date since the 15 years I’ve owned my Davis weather station.

  84. Pretty neat to look north on Rte 6 in the Eastham/Wellfleet area and see flashes of lightning ahead.

  85. The great Reggie Jackson reminding us all of what it was like to be a black person – even when that person was a professional baseball player – 50 plus years ago. See link below. He speaks highly of a former Red Sox manager, John McNamara, who helped him and teammates deal with the racism. https://x.com/JeffKolbFOX4/status/1803925988033860069

    As a Red Sox fan, Reggie was a nemesis in the 1970s. But I had enormous respect for him. I still consider him Mr. October: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDMYVtzHGuI

    2. Thanks Joshua for sharing, especially the first link. Amazing that happened to Reggie even up until the early 1970’s.

  87. Just catching up on all the comments / a lot of action north but pretty tame and comfortable here on the South Coast. Some big cumulus clouds have overspread area but seem harmless. I did notice a number of planes circling this area probably waiting clearance to get to Logan

  88. as usual, the storms did y
    their fizzle routine here. just some leftover rain and a bit of thunder. a big fat Nothing basically.

  89. I am PISSED!@!!
    we’re still in the soupy air mass. so much for cooling by 22z that models previously were showing.
    get this crap out of here.!!!@

    even with ac cranking, with the high dps and piss-poor air quality my wife was quite physically sick from this crap.

    Soup, Get out of here!!!!!!
    I’m so done with it.

  90. I’m getting the feeling that high dps are here for some time maybe not constant mid 70s dps, but I don”t think we see 50s fos for sone time.

    btw our dp topped out at 76 testerday.
    pretty brutal and even higher sw of here and even west if hete.

  91. The thin line visible on radar many were referring to was the outflow boundary. 🙂

    Witnessed a good passage of it with gusty wind and menacing clouds along Route 2 on a mini-chase.

    The event went about as expected, the isolated cells first, then the organized line. It did become outflow dominated and dissipated with time, but that was also no surprise.

    BTW, new weather post!

Comments are closed.