Friday June 21 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)

120 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

A back-door cold front moves across the region from northeast to southwest today, shutting down the heat we’d been experiencing for the last few days. While it doesn’t bring very dry air – we’ll still be humid with a marine air delivery – it’ll be more tolerable than the combination of humidity with heat. The frontal boundary can trigger some showers and thunderstorms as today goes on, but with its movement, these will be more likely west of I-95 and south of I-90, though a few cannot be ruled out elsewhere. During the course of the weekend, the frontal boundary will hang out nearby – just to the southwest, making an attempt to push northeastward again Sunday. Both days include opportunities for convective activity in the form of showers and thunderstorms, with Saturday’s activity more limited to the region southwest of Boston, expanding to include more of the region Sunday. There will be some details to work out and a lot of radar watching to do, so while I would not outright cancel any weekend plans outside, be prepared to monitor and have a back-up plan if possible. Finally on Monday one more disturbance moving through from the west will bring additional showers and thunderstorms before we see the arrival of fair, dry weather Tuesday as high pressure arrives in its wake.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and favoring areas west and south of Boston. Highs 74-81 coast, 81-88 inland occurring by midday followed by a slow temperature fall northeast to southwest. DP 60+. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston, but possible anywhere, including the slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland, coolest coastal areas. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with evening showers and thunderstorms, then clearing. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

A quick-moving disturbance brings a brief shower / t-storm chance mid period in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with dominant high pressure. Variable temperatures, maybe a quick spike of very warm, then seasonable, then a late-period warm-up again.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

A west to northwest flow with a high pressure ridge in the Midwest means a couple shower / t-storm chances and variable temperatures mainly near to a little above normal.

120 thoughts on “Friday June 21 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK
    Still stuck in a truly YUCKORAMA!!!!

    Yesterday hit 95 here with dps 74-76
    Overnight low 69
    current temperature: 76 dp: 69
    Ocean Temperature: 65.7 (Boston Buoy)
    Was up to 71 late yesterday afternoon

  4. Last evenings storms were a bust here in my location.
    It did accomplish a cool down, so that was something.

    1. A bust here also. The outflow boundary was fascinating though. I’ve rarely seen clouds as dark and the wind gusts were impressive

  5. Logan is at 79 with dp 70 !!!
    Norwood is at 79 with dp 72 !!!
    Not much relief yet.

    best I can tell, BDF is between Portland, ME
    and Portsmouth, NH. Still a ways to go before it
    arrives in the Boston area and longer still before it reaches
    inland.

    Now, I am wondering IF Boston makes 90 before it’s arrival?????
    Wouldn’t that be something. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit!!!

  8. Logan is now up to 81, but with a light North wind.
    Is that the BDF? Dp still 70
    In fact dps don’t drop until Portland, ME where the dp is 63.

    So if it is the BDF it is ineffectual and the temp will still rise with a crappy dew point@!(#(*!@()#*()!*@#(*!@(#*)!(@#*

    79 here with dp 70

    1. I did mention this front would only bring a modest DP fall due to the air mass being maritime.

      Only a slight fall.

      1. Yes you most certainly did. It is just that a few days ago we were so hopeful of some relief. As is often the case, things don’t always work out the way the models projected. 🙂

        Life in New England.

    1. The will be changed to slight on at least one of those days. 🙂
      IMHO, for what it is worth

  11. Quick look at the latest SREF and for Sunday showing a low tornado risk for areas west of Boston, VT, NH, and parts of ME.
    998 low pressure tracking west of New England.
    I would say at this moment Sunday would be the day there could be an upgrade to a slight risk somewhere where that marginal risk is currently.

  13. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024062112&fh=3&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024062112&fh=7&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024062112&fh=20&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    It’s brief, but the HRRR does offer some hope the next several hrs on a northeast to eastern Mass dew point drop near the coast.

    First link is 15z, next one I think is 19z

    It’s brief though as the dps start to rise overnight and should be quite high Saturday into some part of Monday.

  14. Wind now NNE at Beverly. Dp still 72.
    So, with that wind direction, I can only assume the front
    has passed Beverley. However, any dp relief is lagging well behind. No relief until North of Portsmouth , NH

  16. Speaking of Fenway, I know Mark will be there tonight and it looks like Dave as well.

    Last night the noise from the Lana Del Rey concert at Fenway
    was deafening here at my house in JP. We’re a few miles from Fenway, no matter it was loud. The bass was vibrating the walls here. 🙂

    ENJOY!!! I’ll be listening.

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024062100&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024062100&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Next 10 days have potential to add more moisture region wide into the ground.

    We’ll have to monitor this generally to see if we end up closer to 1” or 4”.

    Looking at CFS, CFS weeklies, I think we can assume to be under future ridges of 588-594 dm from time to time in the next 4-6 weeks and if we have a lot of ground moisture for the sun to evaporate, we can reasonably expect more episodes of very, very high daytime dew points.

  19. Still gross here.

    I wish I could like this weather. But mild nausea and dizziness caused by it won’t allow me to enjoy it. It’s the very high dew points that have my head spinning. I do all of my exercises indoors nowadays, as I can’t remain outdoors for more than 10-15 minutes without feeling faint. Almost fainted on my 15 minute walk to go grocery shopping.

    I know I’m not alone in this. It’s why I don’t understand it when people say they look forward to “summer outdoor activities.” Besides the beach, what “activity” can someone possibly do in this weather. Yes, even today. It’s too soupy to do sports or an enjoyable walk.

    1. My wife gets very ill in this weather as well.
      I don’t get sick, but I don’t particularly like it. 🙂

    2. I enjoyed a great walk and hike in the woods with my son at 5 p.m. yesterday.

      There are plenty of outdoor things that I (and others) enjoy in such weather. You just do it smartly if you can. 🙂

  20. Wind now NNE at Logan. Can we assume frontal passage?
    Dps don’t start to drop now until Portsmouth, NH where is is all the way down to 67. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  22. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan. As all of you know he does not hype anything up.

    There will be scattered storms today and tomorrow afternoon. Sunday, however, looks more interesting with a chance for severe storms. Given a sizable amount of wind shear and instability there is the potential for supercells and tornadoes somewhere in New England. Stay tuned.

  23. So far this warm weather season severe weather has been isolated. Will see what happens on Sunday as that tweet got my attention and what TK said.

  25. Quick look at the 12z NAM for Sunday and no surprise it is going bonkers with the severe weather parameters for interior SNE.

  27. For now this looks like an interior severe weather threat for Sunday. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to a slight risk for the interior for Sunday from the SPC tomorrow.

  29. JpDave, the isle of shoals dp east of Hampton beach is down to 58F and Beverly is down to 62F. Hang in there.

    1. I was just looking at the north shore and even down to Lynn. Boston is 64 now.

      We are 88 / 75 :devil:

  30. Thanks TK! I have been wondering all week about this heat wave and what it must be feeling like. Well it has finally reached South Dartmouth here on the South Coast. Temp 85/Dew Point 73 – definitely the hottest it has felt all week here.

  31. Yes, Logan temp down to 76 and dp 64

    Getting there!!!

    80 here and dp down to 67. It’s happening slowly

  34. Certainly didn’t feel that bad from my vantage point near Park Street for the parade. The train ride in was another story…

  36. Next couple weeks ….

    Doesn’t appear to be any heat domes.

    Op runs and ensembles generally indicating 500mb heights of around 576-582 dm with an occasional day here and there where they rise to 585-588 dm.

    Seasonable warmth …. Low 80s and maybe every third or 4th day, a one day surge of warmth with temps 85-90F ???

  37. No changes with the outlook from the SPC for today or tomorrow. Sunday might be the day there is an upgrade to a slight risk for the interior.

  40. Quick peak at the latest SREF most of SNE with the exception of coastal CT, RI South Shore, Cape and Islands in the low tornado risk for Sunday. Higher tornado risk in parts of VT and NH.

  41. Did anyone else watch the parade in person besides SAK?

    I watched it on tv and was very nicely done. Imo Ch. 5 had the best overall coverage. The movement of the Duck Boats was fairly swift with no brief stops like in previous parades that I could tell. It started at TD Garden at around 11:15 or so and was done at Hynes Convention Center by 12:30.

    Let us hope the Bruins learn from their postseason mistakes like the Celtics did and start by not letting the Florida Panthers push them around every year, and FINISH their opponents off on their home ice.

  42. Florida Panthers now playing a game six on the road after being up 3-0 against the Oilers.

  43. Well, I guess the back door cold front forecast verified after all. 😉

    Interesting to track the cells that are popping up near that boundary. Feeding off the still very warm and muggy air on the other side.

    That boundary can help make things very interesting in portions of our region over the next couple days.

  44. Just a wee bit of activity out there now. Of course, all to the West with some down around Providence, RI. 🙂

  46. Sitting at the Mighty squirrel brewery now outside of Fenway and still sunny out. What a difference in air here compared to when we left CT. Almost refreshing.

    Radar is lit up like a Christmas tree in CT. Looks like we are going to get wet here at some point and our seats unfortunately are not under cover!

    1. Mark, I don’t think you will get wet. enjoy the show. we’ll be listening.
      Last night’s show with Lana del rey shook the house it was so loud. covrer your ears.

      1. Hope you are right.

        That’s crazy you can hear it so well and feel the bass from a couple miles away!

  47. We have a tiny little cell heading for us. It better not zap the energy for the bigger cells behind it

  48. On a different topic – as some of you know, I’ve been on the planning committee for the Southern New England Weather Conference since its inception in 2000. We’re in the midst of planning this years (Saturday 10/26 at Meditech near the base of Blue Hill in Milton if you want to mark your calendars), but a question came up in our meeting today that I wanted everyone’s opinion on.

    Someone asked if we should change the name to the Southern New England Weather and Climate Conference. In other words, add the word “Climate” to the name. Yes, there are climate topics that are discussed every year, but we’ve left the name as just “Weather” the entire time. What does everyone here think? (The committee was split on it)

    1. i’m good with climate added.

      I’m not good with it at Meditech.
      Iused to work for them and it was not a happy departure.

    3. I’m ok with the having it added as well, especially since the topic is discussed frequently. It’s essentially the same, really just a cosmetic change on the cover. 🙂

  49. The storm over Providence looks like it will slide just to the south of us here in Taunton. I was up in Braintree and Brockton in the last couple hours and it’s significantly drier there than it is here in Taunton.

  50. Storms will go on either side of us as we remain stuck in the middle AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN

  52. Elevated convection rain just beginning here in Woburn.

    You can get a good example of the marine air kicking the feet out from approaching storms today. 🙂

    1. Standing under an overhang on Yawkey Way. They evacuated us from the field due to the “incoming electrical storm”. It’s raining but have only seen one flash of lightning.

      And to think I was worried about sweltering out here on the field last week. I am actually a bit chilly.

    3. So sorry.
      The storms ALWAYS die coming into this marine air.
      NOT this time. What did TK say above? ELEVATED CONVECTION!!!

      Hope the show goes off OK.

      1. No worries, I was going to get wet regardless of whether you predicted it or not :). We saw Collective Soul and they were good. Rest of the show is delayed.

    1. Now casting another heavy shower to follow the one that may have just gone through in about 5-10 mins. This incoming one has had some lightning.

  59. 1.97 total so far. Still rumbles and flashes

    So sorry Mark. Fingers crossed for a quick ending

    1. It could be far worse Vicki. I am having a beer and watching the rain fall. No different than a rain delay during a ball game 🙂

      1.4” of rain back in Coventry per my son.

  60. Thanks, TK.

    Wellfleet worked out great this morning — quite hot, but beautiful. When we left Centerville to come home this afternoon, though, it was gross! DP 70 and close to 80 degrees (no facilities for getting an accurate reading).

  61. Go Edmonton! It’s 3-0 late in the second. They’ve outscored the Panthers an incredible 16 to 4 in the last 3 games. That’s really hard to accomplish in playoff hockey.

    The Florida goalie Bobrovsky, who is 36 years old, looks exhausted. I’m not sure why they keep trotting him out there. He’s having trouble stopping anything.

    This could go to game 7 and Edmonton may become just the second team ever to come back from 3 games to none in a Stanley Cup Final and win it. Very few teams in any sport come back in these situations during any playoff series.

    3. Obviously they need to survey but in this case I think it’s a formality. The early part of that video, from all the years of video observing, tells me that thing, as strong as it was and as “behind the trees” as it was from that perspective, is on the ground.

  63. I believe the NWS from Albany will be going to Harwinton, CT to investigate and see if a tornado touched down. Clear funnel cloud in the video but did it ever make contact with the ground.

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