Saturday June 22 2024 Forecast (8:30AM)

232 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

We’ve been fortunate with late spring weekend weather, with many nice weekend days and in a few cases entire weekends with no weather woes. This is our first weekend of astronomical summer, and might trigger a memory or two of how many of our summer weekends went in 2023. But this is merely coincidence and doesn’t actually predict anything about the weekends to come this summer. Beware – the mainstream media may try to convince you otherwise. Haha! Half-joking aside, our focus on this weekend’s weather highlights an unsettled pattern, but neither day a “wash-out”. The big ole ridge of high pressure that delivered a hot spell at mid week and started a retreat back to the west a little at the end of the week now sits in the Midwest, with our region on the edge of a quasi-ring-of-fire. The term “ring of fire” in association to weather refers to the edges of a high pressure ridge, particularly during the warm season, where disturbances and resultant showers and thunderstorms often track. We also had a back-door cold front move through the region yesterday, not only shutting down the heat at the surface, but also adding another ingredient into creating some showers and storms. We saw that yesterday as a pretty solid area of showers/storms formed, then progressed slowly eastward, but weakened as it moved into the marine air over much of our forecast area. They didn’t dissipate quickly enough to avoid bringing rain to much of the region though, but they moved out late last night leaving us with a mainly cloudy, clammy atmosphere to start the weekend. So now what? Today, the frontal boundary that moved through yesterday will hang out to our southwest, and may help trigger a few additional showers and storms in the southwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area, while a disturbance riding the ridge moves across northern New England later today before exiting via the Gulf of Maine this evening. This disturbance can help set off a cluster or two of showers and possible thunderstorms that can traverse parts of the region this afternoon and early evening. There will be somewhat limited solar heating with the extensive cloud cover in place, so I don’t think any real organized severe storms will get going, but with the disturbance present, they should not be ignored either. I’d not cancel any outdoor plans today, but keep a close eye to the sky / radar and have a plan in place should you have to dodge something. The frontal boundary to the southwest will start to lift northeastward tonight and Sunday, and while we end up on the other side of it on Sunday, we won’t return to the high heat of midweek, but it will be noticeably much warmer and continued quite humid, with more sunshine than today will offer. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward into this warm and humid air mass during the day, and with more solar heating to work with, a more organized cluster or line (or two) of showers and storms should form to our west and move into our region later in the day or early evening. I can’t rule out isolated showers and storms ahead of this, but I do think most of the daytime will be rain-free, just muggy and very warm, but with a somewhat helpful busy southwesterly wind at least moving the air about for ventilation. So keep a watch for the late-day storms, which can be strong to locally severe. There’s even some potential for rotating storms, especially if they are not part of an organized line, with more wind shear present in the atmosphere. In addition, the unstable atmosphere lingers into the nighttime, allowing for additional development of shower/storms behind any main cluster(s) / line(s). In additional to severe weather potential (hail / strong wind) with some storms, areas that see some heavy rain training can be prone to flooding. Activity should settle down late at night / overnight / early Monday, but we still have a cold front to traverse the region during Monday, probably not passing through until sometime Monday evening. So we’ll see a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms Monday – another unsettled day. Finally, a nice Canadian high pressure area will deliver fair weather with drier air for Tuesday, but the progressive nature of the pattern will allow that high to slide offshore, making Wednesday warmer and more humid, but with a continuation of fair weather. I hope you read all of that carefully. I might give you a pop quiz. 😉

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A possible shower and a slight chance of a thunderstorm at any time this afternoon and early evening. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. DP 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible early to mid afternoon. A better chance of showers/thunderstorms west to east later in the day. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. DP rising to near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing, but can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon and evening. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with evening showers and thunderstorms, then clearing. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A cold front passing through the region brings a shower and thunderstorm chance June 27, timing uncertain this far in advance. High pressure builds in with refreshing air June 28 then moves overhead then offshore during the final weekend of the month and to greet July, with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Holiday time period forecast which will have much scrutiny and importance. Large scale pattern looks like a progressive west to northwest flow with an upper high pressure ridge back in the Midwest region. This keeps us out of persistent heat but also leaves the door open for a couple rounds of passing showers/storms with disturbances moving through, so it’ll come down to timing regarding travel / summer holiday plans. And we have a long way to go before we can fine-tune those details, but there’s your early general idea. Actually looks like a pretty decent pattern overall.

232 thoughts on “Saturday June 22 2024 Forecast (8:30AM)”

  1. Thanks TK
    SPC Outlook for today
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png?1719058205

    SPC Outlook for tomorrow
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png?1719036005

    Wind percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_WIND.png?1719036249

    Tornado Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_TORN.png?1719036092

    Hail Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_HAIL.png?1719036605

  4. As JJ posted, spc had parts of w & nw ne in 5% contour for tornsdoes.
    not alwyas but many times this results in a tornado watch. will there be one tomorrow? wr shall see
    chances not so much in Eastern sne.
    will watch for any changes there.

    1. That’s where we’re headed tomorrow, up by Rangely lake in northwestern Maine. How my wife finds these campgrounds, I’ll never know, lol.

      9 day camping trip.

      Definitely looks like bouts of a rainy drive.

      Not crazy on the idea that I’ll have to be watching for wind and other threats.

      Oh well 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Hopefully, the main threat will not be in Maine, but rather to the west, primarily in Vermont.

      2. Oh wow. That’s a beautiful area. I know you’ll have a wonderful time.

        I have Many memories of Rangeley. My boyfriend’s (short time fiancé) family had an island on Mooselookmeguntic ….one of the rangeley lakes. Sure did catch some yummy salmon not to mention having fun watching the bears at the dump at night with the local kids.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    It’s good to feel alive again.

    On sports, we American don’t know how lucky we are with our officiating. Yes, it’s sometimes subpar. And we complain about it. BUT, across all 4 major sports we’re light years ahead of the archaic, arbitrary and just plain awful officiating in soccer. One middle-aged guy runs around with a whistle and tries to keep up with men often half his age can (often does) determine the outcomes of games. He’s got 2 lines judges to help him on the offsides rule, but other than that he is on his own. Try to imagine an NFL game with 1 referee, or a baseball game with 1 ump, or hockey and basketball, for that matter.

    It is unconscionable that in 2024 we still have a situation in which there is effectively just 1 referee on an enormous soccer pitch making sometimes game-altering decisions. What’s worse is that there are NO consistent rules on replay (the 1 referee doesn’t have to review an official replay, for example!), no conferring among those who make decisions, no challenges that can ever be made by any team! It’s mind-boggling. I love the sport of soccer, but I really hate the way it’s officiated.

    1. Great observation on soccer refs, they do always seem so far behind the play.

      It’s funny to look back when the NBA had 2 refs. Adding that 3rd was huge because they always have a ref topside now to get back when the ball transitions in the opposite direction quickly.

      Hockey too. I remember when it was 1 ref and 2 linesman, but they also added a 2nd ref.

  9. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024062212&fh=9&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024062212&fh=23&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024062212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z HRRR radar simulations. Late today, tomorrow morning (active returning warm front) and tomorrow afternoon.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2024062212&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Dps tomorrow afternoon.

    1. Of course, I don’t like the Yankees, but Jeter and Judge are 2 players that are likeable, even if they play for the evil empire.

      1. I actually attended a red sox yankee game at Yankee Stadium in the early 70s. Was in NYC for business and decided to check out the game one evening. Loved the experience.
        Saw Louis Tiant pitch a gem. 🙂

        btw, I NEVER hated the Yankees. I think many in this area hate them simply because they were always so good.

        1. “Sports hate” is just different from the real thing. It’s rivalry driven.

          I always respected the teams that beat my favorite teams. 🙂

          1. I am a closet Jeter Fan. I loved Nomar but man – Jeter closed out an amazing career doing it right from start to finish. I am a huge Sox fan, so it took me years to admit how much I loved watching Jeter play.

    1. I will post if I hear anything. Nws Albany is investigating today. The question to me is did that funnel cloud touch the ground. Clearly from the video we see a funnel cloud.

      1. I had the same thought. It was hard to tell if it touched from the video.

        So is it rule of thumb to call it a funnel cloud if it doesn’t touch and a tornado only if it touches?

        1. It all depends. Sometimes there can be damage on the ground even if the funnel cloud doesn’t appear to touch the ground. Investigation will determine if there is any ground damage. if so and is consistent with tornado damage it will be deemed a tornado. If no damage, then it will be deemed a funnel cloud.

        2. Yes. Until there is definite visual or damage evidence, it’s assumed to be only a funnel cloud.

  23. Feels like Manila or Accra out there, but much cooler than in recent days. It’s the humidity.

    1. I had the exact same thought when I got out of my car a bit ago. The dew point is still 71. Now everything just feels wet and sticky

    2. My wife and I were feeling the same way.

      We had the ac off all night, but put it on an hour ago.

  25. SPC Update for tomorrow. Slight risk expanded to include more of SNE and enhanced risk for parts of VT, NH, and MA

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png?1719077585

    10-14 percent tornado risk which you don’t see often in New England for parts of MA, NH, and VT
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_TORN.png?1719077622

    Wind Outlook
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_WIND.png?1719077709

    2. I was just going to post that. NOT sure I have ever seen
      a 10% tornado contour ever for New England. If it was there, I either didn’t see it or don’t recall it.

      HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!!

      I’d say an awfully good chance there is at least one tornado
      in New England tomorrow.

      1. We’ve seen it. It usually appears every few to several years somewhere in the region.

  27. I expect if these trends were seeing in the guidance continue a tornado watch tomorrow for parts of VT and NH.

      1. Thank you. I’m surprised we don’t have more deer since the rim of that hill seems to be a passage for wildlife to an a large pond at the end of our street. Or maybe we just miss them.

    3. We saw one in Eastham yesterday and another (young male) in Belmont this morning. Beautiful!

  29. We started paying attention to the severe threat for Sunday yesterday when Ryan Hanrahan tweeted this out.

    There will be scattered storms today and tomorrow afternoon. Sunday, however, looks more interesting with a chance for severe storms. Given a sizable amount of wind shear and instability there is the potential for supercells and tornadoes somewhere in New England. Stay tuned.

    1. We sure did. I am a huge fan of Ryan’s. I’m not sure I’d be anywhere near as familiar with him were it not for your posting his info on this blog. Thank you.

      1. For some folks, tomorrow could be a very serious weather day. We’ll be watching for sure.

  31. It’s currently 107 in Death Valley with a predicted high of 119. The dew point is 33. As they say “But it’s a dry heat.”

    Here it’s currently 63.7 with a dew point of 63.1. Does anyone say “But it’s a damp cool”?

    2. Mac has cousins who live in Arizona. While I find it hard to believe that the dew points we have seen don’t make heat worse, they all say heat is heat when it gets that high. They grew up in Rochester NY and spent a ton of time at their place in Stowe VT so are not unfamiliar with humidity

      1. I only have Las Vegas to compare and I agree when it is 108 and dry it feels just like 95 or 96 here with dp 74 or 75.. 🙂

  32. Old salty, thank you for the tornado risk map above. I have lots of friends and relatives who live in the 10-14% area and sent it to them.

      1. That’s the plan. My schedule frees me of all obligations by noon. Lucked out.

  35. Storms. although NOT severe have crossed well beyond the stationary front into the marine air. They are not really intense, but they are not dying out either. Looks like another round of
    RAIN headed for Boston.

    1. That marine air is rather shallow now, so the storms just act like that is “the ground” and feed on the warm/moist air above it. It’s “slightly elevated” convection.

      Tomorrow we’ll have warm/moist air right down to the sfc and good wind shear environment, hence the rotation threat.

  36. Thanks TK!

    Saw the talk about Death Valley, and the heat has definitely made it to SoCal. Might get my first 100+ of the season today. But not as bad as the 107 I endured in Redding, CA (a notoriously stifling location) last week. Been a very active start to fire season here in California, mainly just grass fires so far but may bode ominously for the later summer/fall months when the bigger stuff dries out. Two years of exceptional vegetative growth is going to come home to roost at some point…

    Fully agree on tomorrow in New England, a tornado watch day if there ever was one for that region, over a large area. Not quite a 6/1/11 type parameter space, but certainly would expect a couple of tornadoes and other severe hazards as well.

    1. I was just talking about how the rain they got can actually make fire seasons that follow somewhat worse, because you get the growth, then the late-season dry out, and then POOF.

      Thanks for checking in!

  37. I am not seeing an elevated mixed layer showing up on the guidance that was present on 6/1/11 but certainly other parameters more than enough for the storms to be strong to severe.

  38. Tropical Update…

    Disturbance #1 near GA is a bunch of nothing – no development to be had.

    Disturbance #2 in the southwestern G.O.M. may become a TD before a Mexico landfall tomorrow night. But I don’t think this system will organize enough to attain TS status and get a name. So we continue to go deeper into June with nothing much.

    We are also nearly certainly going to set a record for the latest date with no named storm in the eastern Pacific. Apparently the tropical basins didn’t get the memo that the season started…

    1. My son was at Golfers Warehouse in Hartford and saw what looked like a funnel in the skies to the NW. definite rotation signature on the radar

  42. Yesterday in CT there was a funnel cloud caught on video in Harwinton. Still waiting to hear if that dropped a tornado.

  43. Hi guys! While TK is chasing tornados tomorrow I’ll be trying to run away! I am supposed to drive to the Catskills sometime tomorrow – should I cancel the trip or just leave early?

    Also somewhat unrelated but I used to DJ in the early ‘90’s (I was the GM of my high school radio station) and I just made a playlist for my reunion tonight – here’s a link if anyone wants to listen to pop music from mainly 1989-1994 (with a few exceptions due to classmate requests. ) I am a classic rock gal so it was a challenge to make essentially a pop mix that will appeal to a big group of people – 1/2 of whom want a mosh pit and the other 1/2 just want to “Shoop” Lol! https://open.spotify.com/playlist/0LimtLpCHL2GQfcuJyifaW?si=yMvMThFDTgaXxVSU0pH_JQ&pi=u-2kRW8j8RSl66

    1. great mix. I think it will go over well.

      You don’t have any relatives that lived in Millis way back in the day? (read that 1960s) 🙂

      1. Thx JPDave – being the dj for a high school reunion was much more of a pressure cooker than I had expected!

        1. I might – my Dad’s family comes from Rhode Island and I have a bunch of Millette cousins etc all over New England. Assuming you’re thinking of a person with the same last name lmk first and I’ll ask my Dad!

          1. Yes, same last name. I was classmates with a Ronald Millette in Millis. Class of 1965. 🙂

      1. Typo trying to do that on my phone. I meant to say if anyone is in that area with the number 15 on the SREF that is an elevated tornado risk.

  52. Ping ball size hail being mentioned in the text of the severe thunderstorm warning just south of me.

    1. Heavy rain here. My lightning pro says lightning close. I can’t hear thunder

      Looks as if tornado warning expired

  56. That was a nice supercell ahead of the line in CT. Need an isolated cell like that for rotation today. It passed south of my brother and sis-in-law in Manchester CT. They’re all good.

    I’ve been consulting with 2 events doing fireworks tonight. 1) Middleton MA, which is an event that runs 5 to 9:30. The first part can be held in rain. The rain will end by 6. Rest of the event is dry. It’s still on. 2) Hampton Beach NH fireworks for sand sculpture festival. They don’t need to start setting up until 6:30. The rain ends by 6:00. They are a GO!

    Tomorrow’s weather may be (probably will be) worse in both of these locations, in terms of severe weather potential, so despite the damp ending to the afternoon, today is still be better option for both.

  57. Only a very light breeze here on the south coast – I think these storms will make it to South Dartmouth just like last night

  62. Last severe warned storm in CT with tornado possible tag south of me.

    Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts
    This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
    structure and stay away from windows!
    TORNADO…POSSIBLE
    HAIL THREAT…OBSERVED
    MAX HAIL SIZE…1.50 IN
    WIND THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
    MAX WIND GUST…60 MPH

  63. I will say this. However much I complain about the weather it’s incredibly varied in Boston and SNE. At times we can be like Labrador in winter, Manila in summer, Seattle in spring and the Azores in fall. Throughout the year you’ll experience all weather types and you don’t have to travel.

  64. Vicki the winds gusted a little bit here along with some briefly heavy rain. I am wonder if today is the appetizer and tomorrow is the main course with regards to thunderstorms.

    1. Oh boy. Thats a really good thought. I just hope the threat diminished some between now and tomorrow. I have my go bag (go to basement that is) ready. My power bricks are charging.

  65. Now the seabreeze really picking up here – will that cell crossing Newport make it to Dartomuth?

  66. From Ryan Hanrahan for tomorrow
    Severe thunderstorms expected again tomorrow. An enhanced tornado risk exists across most of New England.

    2. Wow!! That’s some hail. ON my radar, the usual light purple that is typically a hail signature was the darkest purple I have ever seen since I purchased my Radar Scope App.!!

  69. It is always good to get the ground confirmation to what the radar is showing. The SPC had no tornado risk in CT today so I was surprised when that tornado warning popped up earlier for parts of Hartford and Tolland counties.

  70. First time this year an enhanced risk for part of New England this year. This is no surprise with what the guidance has been showing. It is not often in New England you see a 10% tornado chance which for this part of the country is significant.

  71. Thanks, TK!

    We had a downpour and a couple of thunders as we came out of the 4 o’clock church service. Ironically, the scripture reading and sermon were on Jesus calming a “violent squall” on the Sea of Galilee!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  72. I love nearly all sports, but, I especially love the NHL playoffs, especially Game 7s. I cannot wait for Monday night!

    I did some figuring last night the help of Google Maps and came up with that the Stanley Cup has logged 9306 miles in less than a week.

  73. This series had sweep written all over it and now Edmonton could be the second team in the Stanley Cup Finals to come back from 3-0 down to win the Stanley Cup. The first was the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs.

    1. Edmomentum! 🙂

      Sean McDonough commented that he couldn’t believe how lethargic the Panthers looked with everything at stake!

  74. Why couldn’t the Panthers have looked like they did in games 4-6 against my Rangers in the eastern conference finals when they shut down the top guys.

  76. Tomorrow could be another day with a lot of comments as will be watching to see what happens with thunderstorm development.

    2. Thank you very much JJ. I really appreciate the update. And second tom on the video. Excellent

  80. https://radar.weather.gov/region/northeast/standard

    Additional strong warm air advection begins tonight.

    Storms activating again in NY State.

    Can see hints of that warm air advection kicking in with stratiform rains in northern New England.

    I wouldn’t be surprised with that back door front returning as a warm front overnight if it’s a little more active than the models are showing.

      1. I don’t think so.

        I don’t think we get deep enough into the tropical air and also do t get over to S or SSW sfc winds overnight.

  82. Scroll it on the top to 24 and you will see what I mean. The is the most aggressive run I have seen with this model yet.

    1. Yup.

      Like the HRRR, in its own way, another simulation that falls within/very close to that 10% tornado contour the SPC has created.

  83. My wife still wants to head north tomorrow which I’m ok with.

    I put the spot in maps and it gives me an option of 93 through NH, then turning northeast into northwestern ME.

    Nope ! 🙂

    The other option is up 95, hugging the coast past Portland ME with a turn northwestward for the last hour or so.

    YUP !!

      1. I like that drive too, crossing the marshes and seeing some inlets that let you know your not far from the ocean.

  84. The tornado risk on SREF everywhere tomorrow in SNE with the exception of the Cape and Islands.

  85. Why I think it might be more active later tonight is that the HRRR and now NAMs, when I look at 1z on their 00z runs, they are very much under modeling the current convection approaching Albany.

  86. The other thing to watch tomorrow is how fast the marine layer erodes from the Merrimack valley in northern Mass, northward into central and eastern NH.

    1. I’m sorry, I can’t find it, but yes, the place looks to be not far from Rangeley, a bit to the southwest of it.

      We did Moosehead Lake area several years ago. I like it. I’m more of an ocean and tides person, but I like the lakes for a week. My wife loves lakes and rivers. Rivers in northern New England, I love those too. Really some great swimming holes and the water is usually quite cold, even on hot days.

  89. The 3km NAM nearly has the same parameter hot spot as the HRRR, but its convection lags a little further west from the parameters.

    With this data coming in, I’d venture a guess SPC will stay at 10% and not have to move their contour location greatly.

  90. One thing I see on all models ….

    Storm or not, a torrid night is in store tomorrow night.

    Dps in the low 70s and temps struggling to fall below the low-mid 70s

  91. For Tom… There are so many comments, I can see why. I am absolutely sure you will love the area This is the comment

    Oh wow. That’s a beautiful area. I know you’ll have a wonderful time.

    I have Many memories of Rangeley. My boyfriend’s (short time fiancé) family had an island on Mooselookmeguntic ….one of the rangeley lakes. Sure did catch some yummy salmon not to mention having fun watching the bears at the dump at night with the local kids.

    2. In the mid-late 1980’s we camped on Students Island and Toothacre ( spelling ) island on that lake. I was 10 years old the first time camping out. Lots of great memories!

      1. A lot of the land belonged to the Steven Phillips preserve. I’m not sure if it is still managed by the preserve or not. I remember the first day we got there to camp we would go to the ice house on the far side of the lake to get a block of ice for the coolers. It was cut from the lake during the winter and stored in the ice house. I was so amazed by that at that age.

  92. My daughter got only 1 of her 3 scheduled games in this afternoon due to the heavy rains and thunderstorms that pushed through. We’ll see how they fare tomorrow as the day goes on. First scheduled game is at 925.

    Either way, it is not going to a pleasant day as heat advisories are up here for highs in the low 90s and heat index values up to 100. Just more more fuel to develop those PM storms.

  93. Some more shots of the storms today from NBC CT. Sure looks like a weak tornado in that photo from Berlin. And huge hail with that tornado warned cell in East Hampton:

    https://nbcconnecticut.app.link/IUtj0U6rEK

    Three people were struck by lightning at the Travelers Tournament in Cromwell today as well… fortunately all ok.

  94. Seriously???? I don’t like special weather statement boxes on the map just before I head to sleep

    1. Oops, that was the severe outlook. Here is the tornado outlook:

      https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_TORN.png?1719122767

      Boston is now in the 5% contour. YIKES!

      My wife was asking me what should we bring down to the basement in the event it becomes necessary. I told her that it would only be for a few minutes and then she said well what if the house is wrecked? what about medications. She’s always thinking. We’ll certainly have to consider that, depending upon how the radar looks.

      I am so grateful for my Radar Scope App! Can’t be WITHOUT that on a day like this!!!!

      2. I have a bag with lanterns, glow sticks, power bricks, medications for a week, water, extra batteries, and can’t recall what else. It is always packed. The several times we have had to head to the basement since living here have been an hour or so.

        1. Only hit the basement once in the many many years I have lived here. IT was a very hot July day many years ago. 1990’s I think. Before the smart phones and the nifty apps.
          If I had my radar scope back then, would NEVER had gone down there as it was unnecessary. I had my NWS weather cube and it issued a tornado warning for my location.

          I now pay NO ATTENTION to those alerts, unless I can
          confirm with radar scope.

  96. So what is the over under on the time the SPC issues a tornado watch? Is it Noon, 1PM?, 2PM?, 3PM?

    I’m taking wagers?

  97. My prediction Tornado Watch interior MA NH and VT.
    The watch will be issued at 2pm and run to 8 pm.

    1. I’ll bet my house Boston is included in the watch based
      on the 6Z SPC information. (Unless that changes for the 13Z update) We shall see. 🙂

    1. I really enjoy good ole sfc maps.

      We have all this technology now on the radars and the models and the sfc map is just refreshing for its simpleness

  100. Watch the temps and the dps this early afternoon.

    Especially eastern VT, NH, and northern MA

    If the temps get into the mid 80s and the dps get to 75F or higher and there’s isolated cells apart from a main line, that might be the true trouble areas.

    1. Independent of all of the other parameters, HIGH DEW POINTS
      are a major contributing factor to tornado development.
      Add the CAPE, helicity and bulk shear and we have quite a stew brewing.

  101. I was woken up when that rain came from that warm front. Plenty of wind shear showing up on the guidance in the 40-50 mph range which will help sustain updrafts if thunderstorms form.

  102. I think Buffalo’s low last night was 81F.

    What a warm night coming for southern New England.

  103. I, for one, AM REALLY concerned about today.
    Looking at the soundings on the pivotal weather site
    for the HRRR, NAM and 3KM NAM, they show the “potential”
    for EF4+ tornadoes. Now, I know these are usually over cooked, BUT in the past for a tornado threat day, they showed EF1 to EF2 and only very occasionally EF3. Not sure I have seen a sounding
    for New England showing EF4+

    Here is an example:

    https://ibb.co/PGPSQFC

    for this location

    https://ibb.co/64CPH4z

    1. I love these loops. This loop doesn’t show much opportunity
      for sunshine (Fuel), so perhaps just maybe the severe threat
      may be minimized??? let us hope so.

    1. And add in the other models, and the threat zone moves all over the place. Not sure too many areas can be ruled out, but the primary threat appears to be Vermont, parts of NH and North Central MA. All other areas, keep an eye out.

      Waiting another hour or so for the next update from the SPC.
      Also, waiting to see when that warm front moves through. So far NOT. Really GLOOMY with some showers moving in with a bit of thunder and lightning, although I have not hear any yet.

      temp 65 here

      1. I think the areas you identified are the best starting points.

        Pretty interesting to watch these cells pop this morning.

        One by Keene, NH another approaching the Merrimack valley and one north northeast of Boston.

  107. Oh well, we’re off soon.

    I’d leave tomorrow, but lol, my wife says today, so ….. we leave today.

    Enjoy tracking, while at the same time, I hope there’s not too much to track.

    And if the sky is threatening on my path, the tornado can have my camper and truck, I’ll be running far away from them into something a lot sturdier. 🙂

    1. Be careful up there. I hope your phone is fully charged!
      Do you have radar Scope? If not, you should cough up the 10 bucks and get it. Best $10 I ever spent!!!

      1. Thanks !

        Yes, the truck has chargers, so I’ll be checking during stops.

        I’ll have to look into radar scope. I do like weather.us/radar but when we get back, I’ll investigate radar scope more.

        Also, I plan to follow all your posts and others posts today here when I can.

        They will be the best info I can get. 🙂

  109. I think we have seen now between SPC and the best short range guidance that today’s threat is focused NORTHWEST of the major coastal cities. Best chance for spinners is in southwestern and central NH, central and southern VT, and northwestern MA.

    This does NOT include most of the WHW forecast area, except the far northwestern areas of it. This is not to say that strong to severe storms cannot occur further into the “zone” I forecast, but nobody should be expecting a widespread severe outbreak and there may even be lower coverage of showers and storms today than we’ve seen many other days this week.

    This is not a “disappointment”. It’s what we do when we bring an event into focus the closer we get to it – part of the forecast process, as folks like myself, SAK, and WxWatcher will often say, and JMA too (haven’t heard from you in a while!) … Regardless of where/who, it will be interesting to track what does take places today. I still plan to chase if it works out for me, but it may be a trek to get to the best spot(s).

    And btw, new weather post. 🙂

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