Sunday June 23 2024 Forecast (8:30AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

Much has been said about the severe weather threat for today, but it’s important to stress this, so it’s understood. The greatest threat for severe weather (i.e., thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes) exists in the northwestern portion of the WHW forecast area – southwestern NH and north central MA, as the eastern extension of the higher threat area which extends further into NH, VT, and much of western MA, as well as adjacent eastern NY. Timing and atmospheric conditions are less favorable for severe storms further east and south, but that’s not to say a few areas cannot see strong to even severe storms. The chance is just less likely in the bulk of the WHW forecast area. Now, let’s rewind several hours to now, and go forward. As I write this discussion at about 8:00 a.m. Sunday morning, a downpour is occurring outside my window here in Woburn MA, one among a cluster of them, a few containing thunder, and follow-ups to some overnight activity too. These are associated with the frontal boundary that came through on Friday as a back door cold front, and is now returning as a warm front. Where it’s not raining at any given moment, it’s overcast and there may be fog, due to the saturated air in place. So our day starts out quite dank, but as the front pushes through, the shower threat drops off for several hours, and we break the clouds and start to add more sun to the mix, making the temperature go up as the humidity remains high. So we’ll be in for a summery feeling day, and some of this will aid in the development of thunderstorms later. Starting about mid afternoon, we’ll have to watch for isolated storms reaching central MA and southwestern NH. It is from this point through early evening that the greatest chance of severe storms exists. Further east, there can be isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms, but as previously mentioned, the severe weather threat is less. We’ll have to watch to see if any more organized clusters or small lines of storms can form, because these can create their own momentum in the form of cyclic regeneration with the help of outflow boundaries. However, these would have less rotation potential and greater straight-line wind potential. Again, these still favor areas west of I-95 and later in the day into the evening, but as we get into the evening, at least weakened forms of these can make it further east. This takes places as a trough of low pressure, in this case a pre-frontal trough (trough of low pressure ahead of a cold front) makes its approach. This feature will pass by tonight, and until it does so, we can still see some scattered to isolated showers and storms, even after the severe weather threat has diminished. Monday, the cold front will sweep through the region, and it’ll be a little colder aloft with a trough up there swinging through. While there will be less moisture to work with, there can still be and probably will be some showers and storms firing up. While I’m not looking for too much in the way of severe weather, an isolated storm or two can be capable of hail and a damaging wind gust Monday afternoon to early evening. Finally, it all departs Monday night and this leads us to a great early summer day on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with warm, dry conditions. High pressure then slips offshore and Wednesday is a very warm day with some increase in humidity. A progressive pattern brings the next frontal boundary across the region sometime Wednesday night or Thursday, based on current timing, but this system looks like it will only bring a short-lived shower and thunderstorm chance, leaning toward late Wednesday night / early Thursday right now…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and scattered showers / thunderstorms with briefly heavy rain until late morning, then breaking clouds and partial sun by midday into afternoon, with isolated showers / thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon, favoring areas west of the I-95 belt, and late-day stronger storms possible favoring north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point rises to around 70. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH until late morning, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts midday on. Damaging wind gusts can occur near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms favoring areas west of I-95 and especially west of I-495 and north of I-90. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms possible but diminishing overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and diminishing, but wind can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning on. Highs 75-82. DP starts in 60s but a slow downward trend. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially around any storms where wind can be more variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Patchy ground fog in low elevations evening, dissipating overnight. Lows 56-63. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP upper to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late evening / overnight. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms int he morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

High pressure dominates the region during much of this time period, with a frontal boundary to cross somewhere mid period (estimating early July 30) when a shower / thunderstorm threat will be present. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Independence Day forecast period including the “Fourth of July Weekend” looks decent with a west to northwest flow and only 1 or 2 brief potential interruptions from passing disturbances / frontal boundaries in an otherwise mainly dry and seasonably warm pattern. More details to come…

186 thoughts on “Sunday June 23 2024 Forecast (8:30AM)”

    1. I love how the first comment accuses him of fear mongering. People have to learn the difference between actual info and hype. Ryan isn’t hyping. He states “an unusually high risk for tornadoes across New England”. Based on statistics and probability, this is 100% true. The risk is unusually high, because we very seldom have a forecast % that high around here. This is true whether a single tornado forms or not. He states good information, and shows a legitimate map to illustrate it. Nothing wrong there.

  3. With the idea that we were in the 1% risk area for the June 1 outbreak, I’m not crazy about the 5-9% here now. IF this reads as a snow total map, it puts my area closer to 9 than 5. Not sure if it does though.

    1. A notable difference between today and that day is that day we had an atmosphere more capable of classic-looking Plains-style supercells with larger, longer tracked tornadoes, such as the Springfield-Monson event.

      5% that day, 5%+ today, so not a big difference. Also main threat area is west of you, which is good news for your location. 🙂

      1. I agree. But I did put my go bag by the basement door. I think We’ve been in the basement three times since moving here in 2016. Never had been before. And be tornado whose path was two miles from here was never warned

        1. It cannot hurt to be prepared.

          Even when you are outside, the higher threat area or conditions don’t look like they will pan out, it is still good to use a day like today as an exercise.

  5. I’m ’bout to head out for some morning errands for my mom & brother. All is quiet for a while after the warm front activity. Hard-core monitoring begins about midday. Check in later!

  8. Sorry JJ, didn’t see your post when I looked for the latest link. 🙂

    Same as previous update

  9. It looks like that enhanced area moved slightly south across MA to boarder of parts northern CT.

    1. perhaps, but it looked much the same to me.
      Now, we’re onto NOW CASTING and RADAR WATCHING
      anyway. OF course we will look at the 12:30 update for sure!!!

  11. You don’t want sunshine on a day like today. Clouds will be everyone’s best friend on a day like today.

  14. I will say around 12:30pm the SPC will issue a mesoscale discussion for central and parts of northern New England. As I said on the previous blog my prediction is 2pm tornado watch running until 8pm tonight!

  15. Thanks TK !

    Checking 12z HRRR, it’s radar simulation, best parameters, and factoring in the 00z 3km NAM, I’d identify somewhere in the vicinity of the Lake Winnepesaukee area in NH, btwn 3-6 pm as the biggest danger zone.

    Just a guess.

    1. They are closer to the dynamics being further north, they get into the soup (high dps) just in time, they aren’t too far south of the warm front, so their winds are likely to be S if not still SSE, and their far enough east to be away from a squall line but in a position where some isolated storms could be roaming.

  17. I STILL see more convection firing….
    I wonder if we see off and on convection all day, preventing
    a severe outbreak here?????

    Something doesn’t smell right to me.

    1. It is suddenly oppressive here in marshfield. S SW wind now busy. It was a dramatic airmass change.

      Waiting on wife and daughter. lol 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Good luck with that. I learned LONG ago NOT to hover.
        I just sit at my computer doing whatever I like trying to patiently WAIT. 🙂

  19. Thanks, TK…

    We had a quick half-inch of rain in a gullywasher around 3:30-3:45 am in a brief thunderboomer.

  20. Sun starting to break out where I am. Although I think I missing the action today. Run of the mill thunderstorms the past two days.

  21. 69 here with dp up from 60 previously to 64 now. I feel My location is in the vicinity of the front. Getting close.
    Brightening up just a tad.

  24. 72 here, dp 67 and on the RISE!!!
    I think it has just passed or in the process of passing.
    Something is happening!

  25. Thank you, TK.

    Laying out the potential risks of something happening isn’t fear-mongering. And this extends beyond meteorology to include infectious diseases, for example.

    It’s when risks are exaggerated or overhyped that it can become fear-mongering. Sometimes visuals – aimed at getting more eyeballs – accentuate the problem. For example, if today’s tornado risk were accompanied by pictures of devastation in, say, an Oklahoma town, I’d call it fear-mongering. Similarly, this past winter when faced with potential run-of-the-mill snowstorms (that never materialized) the various “Storm Force” weather teams on air would sometimes include pictures from 2015. That’s fear-mongering and not at all proportionate to the actual risk.

    1. Perfectly logical statement.

      Once people stop read defining words like “potentia” as “guarantee”, then this problem may start to diminish, but not until then.

  26. If you see any comments from me that have weird punctuation Or a word looks out of place or wrong. It is just because I probably voice texted it on my new phone, which is still “learning” me. Haha!

  29. Thanks TK.

    Absolutely “putrid” out here at the softball fields in Southington this morning. Feels like the Amazon. Up to 81F with a DP of 75 and heat index of 87 as of 11am. Still mostly cloudy but the sun is peaking in and out.

    Heat advisory in effect for CT and central MA today for heat indexes up to 100.

    We’ll see what effect this heating has on storm coverage here later.

  32. From Matt Noyes just now.

    “….. isolated storms will develop in the Berkshires between 3 and 4 PM. If one of those isolated storms is on top of you, that’s of course more of a problem than if it isn’t! The chance for storms goes up considerably around 430 to 5 PM onward. Hope you get the show in, “when thunder roars, go indoors (or in your car)!”

  35. HRRR & the still-experimental RRSF are vastly different as of 12z runs…

    The former shows a few isolated storms ahead of a broken line that stays mainly N of the MA border.

    The latter shows a more substantial line first that gets much further east, then a couple isolated storms behind the line.

    The RRFS scenario doesn’t seem as realistic to me based on what I know at the moment, but we will see – follow trends in short range guidance and of course real time radar & obs.

  36. Models are not always correct, but so far I am NOT impressed by what any of the models are showing. We shall see.

  37. While I absolutely understand the greatest threat is in the areas north and west of here, a couple of weather folks I follow (not our meteorologists) have said no significant event in western and central MA. Is there a given that those areas won’t see rotation?

    1. We cannot rule out rotating supercells anywhere in the region, most especially in the watch area that was just issued.

      1. Thank you. That was what I thought. I was really surprised by that comment. I often wonder if under hype is worse than hype.

  38. 79, 72 here, SOUPY!!! With considerable sunshine!
    Atmosphere is COOKING!
    Will there be a trigger?

  39. Not terribly concerned about the storm threat in CT today. I would find it hard to believe the storm coverage will exceed the last two days down here where we had statewide coverage, numerous flash flood and severe thunderstorm warnings as well as a couple tornado warnings. Up in NNE, a different story.

    1. Actually it’s less coverage that make the storms that do occur more dangerous.

  43. Looks like I will be off an hour with my prediction of 2pm for that tornado watch. I did predict it would last until 8pm

  47. Tornado Watch is up from 1-8pm for NE NY from Albany north, VT, NH, and western ME as well as most of MA. CT, RI and SE MA excluded.

        1. Oh I know it goes into MA. But radar scope only has it just over fhe MA border. I’m just wondering why see my link re Burlington tornado warning

      1. They were. Looks like it was cancelled or allowed to expire. Just a regular severe t storm warning now

        2. It was there from about 2:15. I have a photo of the warned area above along with radar scope incorrect watch area. Glad it expired

  60. The actual tornado watch back just clips the northern section of MA, but the counties it clips in MA are fully included in the watch notification. The red line you are seeing is the watch box itself. Here’s the SPC description of rh watch boundaries: “The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Saranac Lake NY to 25 miles south southeast of Augusta ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).”

    The county based watch system has its pluses and minus…

      1. Thank you. I think I understand. Sort of. I admit it is confusing. This was what I saw and Mark posted

        https://www.weather.gov/box/

        This is what radar scope shows

        https://ibb.co/ByvyxjS

        So if I’m reading your comments correctly and apologize if not, even though the red box doesn’t drop down to the southern border of MA, the counties touched by the red line at the northern border are included as a whole?

        My guess is that is an incorrect assumption but …..

        And ALWAYS nice to see you here

        1. Never mind that has to be wrong since middlesex cty is included in the first watch map and the red line in the second doesn’t touch it. Sorry don’t mean to make extra work. I just can’t make sense of it

    2. Well that explains it and if this is truly thr csdr, IT SUCKS!!!!! Very very vyer misleading

  61. So, I did my abbreviated run. Could not bear more than 2 miles. Air was extraordinarily thick, breathing somewhat labored. I stopped. Unfortunately, I can no longer run outside in summer. My doctor had advised against it a few years ago. I should have listened.

    1. I am so sorry, Joshua . It really stinks when weather stops you from being able to enjoy the outdoors. Or more specifically…weather stops you from enjoying weather.

  66. FYI: The Nashua dew point being reported is incorrect. The dew point did not get to 81. This has been an ongoing issue.

    1. Actually, it was right. I didn’t believe it either, but we have a setup at the office, and we were 87/80 at the same time the airport (2 miles away) was 86/80.

  67. Two active tornado warnings now in central NY. One south of Utica and one north of Binghamton

  68. Severe Thunderstorm Warning now up to the north of me. Watching any individual storms to see if they start to rotate.

  69. Hello from Seville Spain, temps today 101 but dry heat. Hot nonetheless. Hope everyone stays safe

  72. Things are slowly getting interesting in the WHW area. Wonder where TK is hanging out? Might give us a good clue as to where the action might be,

    my guess somwhere out by Townsend.

    1. First target zone is I-93 Southern new hampshire, to put myself in position to catch the southern end of the vermont line and leave myself in position to follow that if it’s worth it or go after stuff that comes from the southwest later

  73. The southward extension of the watch is necessary as some of the short-range guidance and radar observations are hinting at stronger storms a little further south lagging behind the initial stuff

    1. I always zoom in on the map to see if you are included in the warned boxes. I’m excited if you are getting a tstorm. I am happy you are not part of the tornado warned area

  77. TK the cell currently near Keene NH looks interesting with some signs of rotation. Could it grow stronger as it approaches your location?

  79. That storm is moving north of me JpDave to the central part of Litchfield county. This was originally a severe thunderstorm warning. It looked suspicious to me and this air has not been tapped yet. According to the warning ping pong ball size hail is possible with this storm.

        1. You are very modest. I remember far more than once in a while when you mentioned it before Nws Called it

  82. This is one of those discrete cells we have been talking about which could happen in this environment.

  83. That tornado warned cell in northwest CT moving fast. Will see if they extend the warning.

  84. We are now in the slow time for WHW. Well it is dinner time.
    I will be awol soon, but hopefully will be checking in more than a normal night.

  87. Hi Vicki,

    You were right earlier about Middlesex being within the watch box area…the far northwest reaches of Middlesex County were in the original watch box. Ashby, Townsend, that area. That portion of Middlesex County stretches NW over “the top” of Worcester County.

    When SPC sets out a watch, there’s always a box/polygon that they describe, and then they name the counties. At least that’s what I ‘ve noticed over the years.

    And hi!

  90. That storm was the one that entered west central Litchfield county just over an hour ago that prompted a tornado warning.

  93. Tom I’m assuming you are settled into your campsite. I thought I saw some weather roll through??

    2. Wow. So cool. I’ve always wanted to chase. So glad you got to. Thank you and please thank your son.

  96. I signed up for warning messages in Matt and Danielle Noyes page. Why? I have no clue.i already get enough.

    I was talking to my grandson and suddenly a canned male voice from my chair announced lightning was detected in my vicinity. It was unnerving to. say the least. The middle of the night would be worse. Needless to say, I unsigned up

  98. That severe thunderstorm was just south of me. I got some briefly heavy rain. Earlier it was a tornado warning north of me.

    1. And another warned storm near Manchester. Both t storms. Not tornado. I’d say ct overachieved.

      I know a couple folks said nothing severe in central and western ma and there wasn’t. Still think that is a bit risky

  101. Yeah three straight days of storms here in CT. An entertaining stretch. Coverage today much less than the previous two days.

    Overall though relatively small amounts of damage and it appears most of New England dodged a bullet today. Several tornado warnings but not aware of many (if any?) verifying on the ground.

  102. What an interesting drive home from Long Island I had after celebrating my dad’s 85th birthday as he continues his transition in rehab.

    Got on I95 North at 7 and once into conneticut drove parallel to a dying thunderstorm that originally had quite a shelf cloud. Then the same with a second line in northern Conneticut that eventually got us in Providence. However as we went out east on 195 we out ran it and it eventually fizzled by the time it crossed into Massachusetts

    1. The dry-out process takes place through the day (see new discussion / forecast).

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