Wednesday June 26 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)

141 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

A “quiet” warm front went by overnight. The only evidence you had of it here is the variety of high and mid level clouds that appeared late yesterday and last night, and if watching radar you saw some light showers cross northern New England. This has opened the door for a one-day shot of heat and humidity, though it won’t be nearly as hot as our hot spell of last week, with most areas topping out in the upper 80s to around 90. The exception of course will be the South Coast which will feel a cooling effect from a southwesterly wind coming off the ocean water, which while it has warmed up significantly since spring, is still a couple months from reaching its summer peak. There will be a South Coast sea breeze boundary which can help trigger a few showers and even a thunderstorm this afternoon in an east-west orientation – best guess in the vicinity of I-90 but may be a bit south or even a bit north of there, so watch for developing clouds and you can get a visual clue as to what’s happening before anything forms. Much of the rest of the region will remain rain-free through the daylight hours. It’s later this evening and overnight when a more widespread batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through the region as the cold front moves into and passes through the region. While these showers can linger over eastern areas into early Thursday morning, the bulk of Thursday is going to feature a return to sun, with passing clouds, and lowering humidity, cooler compared to today but still pleasantly warm in the afternoon without the higher dew point air. There is one more trough that has to swing through the region late in the day that can trigger a couple showers and a thunderstorm, but these should be generally isolated to widely scattered and quick-passing if/where they do occur. A fresh Canadian air mass settles in for Thursday night and Friday with low dew points, a cool nighttime and a pleasant daytime. A northwesterly air flow should keep up well into Friday which should prevent sea breezes, but the air will be refreshing anyway, along with plenty of sun to be enjoyed. The weekend will feature some weather changes. High pressure will slide offshore Saturday and a warm front will approach, bringing an increase in clouds. This front may bring some shower activity but right now I feel the bulk of that will occur west and north of Boston later in the day. It’s then overnight and Sunday morning that a cold front will approach and move through with the most widespread shower and potential thunderstorm activity, with a follow-up trough maybe popping a shower or storm in some areas Sunday afternoon before we clear out again. Humidity levels will come up again Saturday into Sunday, but without high heat, and the humidity will then break again later Sunday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few showers and possible thunderstorms favoring the I-90 belt mid to late afternoon. Highs 77-84 South Coast region, coolest immediate shoreline, 85-92 elsewhere. DP rises to middle 60s to around 70, highest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible early, then more widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms late evening and overnight. Patchy fog forms. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the early morning. Partly sunny mid morning on. One more possible shower or thunderstorm mid afternoon to early evening northwest to southeast. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 by late-day. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP falls to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Mid afternoon to evening rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. DP rises back over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. DP 60+ much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

During this holiday period we’ll see a west to northwest air flow and progressive pattern. A couple disturbances / fronts bring passing shower and t-storm chances, but it’s hard to time these this far in advance. The bulk of the period sees rain-free weather. Temperatures start out coolest, then warm to a little above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

A similar pattern to the previous period. More detail to come…

141 thoughts on “Wednesday June 26 2024 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 88 yesterday

    Overnight low of 72

    Currently: 79 with dp on the rise, now up to 64

    Ocean temperature: 62.1 (Boston Buoy)

    1. Low of 72, wow.

      If I’m reading the GFS correctly, very briefly Friday around sunrise, it’s projecting 40 – 45F up here.

        1. Ha !

          Thanks ! My wife takes care of finding the places and I like to do the driving. I always like or love what she plans, so, it has always worked 🙂

          1. Mac and I did the same. And liked or loved each trip.

            Saddleback ski area and a video you posted looked as if it was a clear enough day to see Washington. It was a spectacular video. Such a fun adventure for you all

  6. Remember that warm, windy rainstorm on December 18th last year?

    That’s the most recent major flooding event on the Swift River, up here.

    I looked it up because there are frequent, noticeable repavements of rte 17 along the river. Also, just off the road, it’s easy to see the rebuilding of the ground below where the road had given way.

    It’s in multiple locations of a 5 mile stretch along the river.

    Reading up, it looks like 2 people lost their lives in nearby Mexico, I think it was.

    Further, our site has a path down to the swift river and we were seeing the debris stuck in the trees and it was slightly above our heads while we were sitting about 3 ft above the river bed. Lots of branches and a bigger trees strewn across the river bank, as well. We even think we sensed a few small bridges that had to be rebuilt.

    1. I remember that and am pretty sure I mentioned rangeley. It’s a tributary to the androscoggin (Sp?) if I remember correctly. We did a ton of fishing all through that area

  9. The bigger headline with the update from SPC most of SNE now in that level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk. These thunderstorms COULD be coming through toward and after midnight.

    1. Scary timing. I’m usually up at midnight but have an early appt tomorrow and need to be awake enough to drive to Hopkinton.

  11. From Ryan Hanrahan

    Tonight’s severe weather threat looks more impressive. Strong damaging winds, hail, lightning, and heavy rain possible around and after 8 p.m.

  12. Got a couple of small cells north of me around grafton and Hopkinton. I wouldn’t have known it if my lightning pro hadn’t made its thunder noise

  13. The boundary mentioned in today’s discussion is the focus for the showers / t-storms, right on time and right in the area expected. These are not really “the event” that comes later, but they are on a boundary which helps do a part to set the table.

    The best chance of severe weather is after sunset, timeline around 9PM hour western CT, 10PM hour eastern CT and central MA, 11PM hour eastern MA but probably in weakened form.

    I’ll be at Hampton Beach NH from 7:00 to 10:00 p.m. so I’ll be monitoring as I finish up there and head back in my direction.

  14. The wave way out in the Atlantic southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is now officially Invest 95L, meaning that the models will be run every 6 hours on it.

    It’s a little early in the season for a system that far out in the MDR, and *if* it even develops, it likely stays very far to the south. There’s been plenty of Saharan dust of late just to the north, so it’ll need to stay south to have any chance of developing. The Windward Islands would be the most likely spot to be impacted, if at all.

    On a similar note – all those forecasts for a hyperactive hurricane season could have a problem. SSTs have stopped dropping in the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific, and have actually risen a little in the past month. Officially, we’re neutral, neither El Nino or La Nina, but the La Nina may not be moving in so quickly, if at all.

    1. Very interesting info!
      I haven’t been able to monitor the grand scale as much the last few weeks as I would like to, so this is appreciated.

  18. Echo. Echo. Echo

    We had our last parade committee meeting before parade Saturday. It was at the sutton police station. I run the zoom from home. One of the folks zoomed in from outside. Until the firsf cell arrived. Another just lost internet and said the wind is crazy up there. Meanwhile we have nothing 👿

    Quite a train though

    https://ibb.co/x8G9bCr

  19. So with this multi hour train of storms only a few miles north of me, will it diminish the chance for storms later

  20. I am watching that line of thunderstorms in the Hudson River Valley of NY approaching western CT. Will see if it holds together.

  23. We are wicked in with marine air and a string sea breeze here on the south coast – I can’t see these storms surviving out here after crossing Long Island

    Meanwhile wild rain and lightning at Citi Field as my Mets still lead the Yankees again!!

  25. Getting my nighttime WiFi fix in at the ofc.

    What is Boston and Logan going to end up with after these training storms are done. My goodness, a huge torrent is over them.

    Quite a dewpoint boundary from 50s to low 70s !

  26. Severe Thunderstorm Warning where I am with that line of storms coming into western CT!

  28. Been inside for meeting and then refining the minutes. Tom caught my attention with his DP comment. We are 73 degrees and our DP is still sitting at 70.

  29. Strongest winds I have experienced in a thunderstorm since that overnight outbreak of severe weather in February 2016. I heard sirens in the distance from my deck. Lost power briefly but it is back. Some branches down on my lilock bush.

    2. My sister was in that line in upstate New York near Poughkeepsie- trees down all over – she said it was awful

  30. The ST Watch has just been expanded east through Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts till 2 am.

    1. You beat me to it Captain – was just going to ass that. Breeze is dying here in Dartmouth and humidity went up a tick

  32. to me line heading here appears to be weakening some. we shall see. Not expecting severe weather here. hadn”‘t been so farceither.

  33. Vicki I am okay. At least the branches fell in the yard. The winds picked up big time as the storm moved in. This line is moving across CT. As I said earlier I have not seen winds gusted this much in a thunderstorm since the overnight severe weather outbreak of 2016.

    1. Whew.

      The radar seems to show rhe line Falling apart as the top goes over the MA border. Is that my imagination or is it due to the storms we had earlier zapping energy

  37. We are about to get clocked. Just got a warning alarm and emergency message on my phone for winds to 80 mph!!

  38. Hopefully the storms you had earlier worked over the atmosphere and you don’t have what has happened here. If it does it will come in quick the winds will pick up might lose power hopefully no tree damage.

    2. I never wish for storms not to be here but this is an exception that proves the rule. It sure sounds nasty and I wouldn’t wish for that.

      Thank you JJ

  39. Air is so thick and heavy and calm right now. The calm before the storm, tons of lightning and thunder now out to my west.

  41. Here is the text for that warning Mark was mentioning heading for him. Be safe

    At 1021 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
    extending from Agawam to Vernon to near East Hampton, moving
    northeast at 55 mph.

    THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR Rockville, tolland…somers and
    stafford springs. These storms have a history of producing 77 mph
    winds at Bradley International Airport. Take cover immediately!

    HAZARD…80 mph wind gusts.

    THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT…DESTRUCTIVE

  42. From Ryan Hanrahan

    77 mph is the strongest wind gust at Bradley Airport since the ASOS was installed in 1996. The last wind gust this high was 89 mph on July 1, 1988

  43. Looked like a hurricane for a while there but think we dodged a bullet. Still have power and didn’t hear any large branches come down but the pear trees in the front yard were at 45 degree angles at times.

    Huge temp drop down to 63F and the air feels dramatically different now.

    0.67” of rain in 10 min as well. Still raining.

    1. It came in fast as JJ said and the worst of the winds lasted maybe 10 min but it felt like longer. It’s a bit nerve wracking as we have a line of big trees along the west side of the house

    1. Mark I am not surprised. The wind picked up and I have not seen winds this strong in a thunderstorm since the overnight severe weather outbreak in February 2016. I heard sirens in the distance from my deck obviously responding to emergency calls from the thunderstorm that came through.

  46. 36,000 power outages in CT right now which is no surprise and that number will go up as this line moves through. Southern Worcester county under that severe thunderstorm warning for wind gusts to 80mph.

    1. Get ready for those winds to pick up quickly. Northern part of the line looks like it has weakened a bit, fortunately, so hopefully you don’t have much in the way of damage there.

  52. Seeing a few shelf cloud shots from this line of thunderstorms in CT! This line of thunderstorms crossed the state and left a mark on a lot of communities here in CT.

  53. This line of thunderstorms goes by quickly.
    I still can’t get over that 77mph wind gust at BDL in Windsor Locks, CT

    1. We are too. Passed just south of here. Looks like from the velocity scan we are just about out of it now.

  58. Please be safe sue and Captain and everyone order tornado warned area. My son and wife are in it but are sleeping. I’m praying they have warnings in their phones

  60. Yes. The phones have gone off twice. Bridgewater State University emergency alert just called.

  61. Even if it is not a tornado you could see what looks like a bow echo on the radar and that could cause damage. We saw that as it went through in CT!

    1. Didn’t expect a tornado warning…seems to be the norm for us now in our area. A few last summer too.

      Looks like it is canceled now.

    1. His concern is for straight line winds along and north of 44. That is you Captain? He says he is not as concerned about tornados as straight line

      2. He is staying where he is and will be back on air if needed. He mentioned a concern about Plymouth county and will be back if it seems more sinister

  64. Looks as if the National Weather Service office in Norton is right in the middle of the storm!

    1. Which is bad a little for the radar and detecting the rotation when it is right on top of them!

  65. JR said fhe rotation indication was right near Attleboro. But that has disappeared. Straight line winds have not disappeared.

    Sorry if I’m repeating it if you are warching JR and this is old news

  68. Providence station confirmed there is some weak rotation and NWS is keeping an eye on it. Either way strong straight line winds too,

  69. They also said many trees and down in parts of Attleboro, which would have been on the path of what I saw with the rotation and straight line winds just south of 295.

  70. The warning box I’m seeing says severe thunderstorm warning. I’m sure I just didn’t notice in the past but thought they normally said thunderstorm warning. Not severe. Sorry. It’s late and I suspect I am wrong

  71. It was crazy for a while but just on the last 90 mins. We were in Mansfield walking with my daughter and her fiancé earlier tonight and the clouds to the north with the training storms were so close and lightning was in the distance but we were fine. What a night just north of you into Boston earlier with the rain and storms. This definitely had some good support for severe weather after dark.

    1. It started just before 6:30 only a few miles north of our home and didn’t end till a short time ago. But the lightning was absolutely amazing. Lighting up the entire sky minute after minute for well over an hour.

  72. The strongest winds are just about to move off of the Duxbury and Marshfield coast according to the velocity scan.

    1. Good riddance to this one. Thank you north for the uodates. Sue and Captain also and prayers you and everyone is safe

  73. Son in lincoln RI said lots of trees down in town with power outage. He said same as JJ that it was intense.

    Not intense here but we had constant lightning for about 5-6 hours. I cannot recall seeing the sky light up as it did for such an extended period of time.

  74. Pete was outstandinh as he stayed on monitoring the storm almost too midnight.

    He explained very well what was going on. If there was a tornado, it was not one in the classic sense.

    I mean he was really great!!

    btw, the storms we had earlier was worse than the last storm where the worst of it was well South of here.

    Could that big wind event been classified as a deracho?

  75. Good morning all. My neighborhood is an absolute mess. Thankfully we didn’t have any trees down on our property but there are trees and poles down all around us. We have been without power since a little after 12:00 and I would be shocked if it returns any time soon. Thank you all for keeping us in your thoughts, it was a doozy!

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